Tips for Tikay

[Junior Senior]

Obv best bet is Chelsea to score first. Win bet 45% time and of the 55% of the time we lose we get our money back around 65% time.

So we lose less than 20% time and more than double our money 45% time

Hope so, this is what i have done

[tikay]

And I'm off to the zoo!! Was secretly sweating rain

Ha.

You really ARE the Daddy these days.

[tikay]

Obv best bet is Chelsea to score first. Win bet 45% time and of the 55% of the time we lose we get our money back around 65% time.

So we lose less than 20% time and more than double our money 45% time

Hope so, this is what i have done

Greg,

Ignoring any bets you may have, how do you see The Masters panning out?

[Tal]

And I'm off to the zoo!! Was secretly sweating rain

Ha.

You really ARE the Daddy these days.

Don't live in West Lothian, do you?

That zoo will be closed today, having had a fire overnight, with the loss of a large number of reptiles.

The +EV play is to find out what animals they have at the zoo you're going to and learn half a dozen QI type facts about them, dropping them in as you go along.

[Tonji]

two weeks away, & 100+ pages to catch up

Ha!

Hope you had a good break. We have even had a bet on the Tour de France whilst you were away - Quintana @ 40/1!

Great to have another cycling fan on board.

Interesting rider is Quintana, only 23, but looks 33.



Certainly he is a GT rider of the future. He has only ever ridden one Grand Tour, last years Vuelta. Despite this years stellar performance his Movistar team are likely to use his climbing skills to break the Sky train in the mountains. He'll probably be the 3rd lead option in the TdF, behind Valverde & Costa. A Colombian has never finished in the top 3. I think he can break that record, but in a few years time. I would have hoped to have seen him ride the Vuelta this year, the mountainous parcours suits.

Anyhow, you should have a good sweat. Stage 8 in the Pyrenees is his first opportunity to show.

I'm actually liking his chances in this weeks Ardennes Classics, particularly in wednesday's La Flèche Wallonne.

[Junior Senior]

Obv best bet is Chelsea to score first. Win bet 45% time and of the 55% of the time we lose we get our money back around 65% time.

So we lose less than 20% time and more than double our money 45% time

Hope so, this is what i have done

Greg,

Ignoring any bets you may have, how do you see The Masters panning out?

Far too open to call. The bookies will be loving it! I mean 2/1 Snedeker?! Tight gits! This type of field just gives the bookies a licence to shorten all prices. Its anybody's really. I am having no further bets as i have Scott 28/1, Day 75/1 and Woods 6/1 from the outset and happy that any of those can win.  There is got to be value in looking at outsiders here. Anyone who does a schwarzel and gets on a run will win. I would suggest also that Couples, Cabrera and Leishman will fade and would oppose them.

[tikay]

two weeks away, & 100+ pages to catch up

Ha!

Hope you had a good break. We have even had a bet on the Tour de France whilst you were away - Quintana @ 40/1!

Great to have another cycling fan on board.

Interesting rider is Quintana, only 23, but looks 33.



Certainly he is a GT rider of the future. He has only ever ridden one Grand Tour, last years Vuelta. Despite this years stellar performance his Movistar team are likely to use his climbing skills to break the Sky train in the mountains. He'll probably be the 3rd lead option in the TdF, behind Valverde & Costa. A Colombian has never finished in the top 3. I think he can break that record, but in a few years time. I would have hoped to have seen him ride the Vuelta this year, the mountainous parcours suits.

Anyhow, you should have a good sweat. Stage 8 in the Pyrenees is his first opportunity to show.

I'm actually liking his chances in this weeks Ardennes Classics, particularly in wednesday's La Flèche Wallonne.

I forgot to mention, our new Cycling fan is "cheapwetsuit". Seems a smashing lad.

[tikay]

Obv best bet is Chelsea to score first. Win bet 45% time and of the 55% of the time we lose we get our money back around 65% time.

So we lose less than 20% time and more than double our money 45% time

Hope so, this is what i have done

Greg,

Ignoring any bets you may have, how do you see The Masters panning out?

Far too open to call. The bookies will be loving it! I mean 2/1 Snedeker?! Tight gits! This type of field just gives the bookies a licence to shorten all prices. Its anybody's really. I am having no further bets as i have Scott 28/1, Day 75/1 and Woods 6/1 from the outset and happy that any of those can win.  There is got to be value in looking at outsiders here. Anyone who does a schwarzel and gets on a run will win. I would suggest also that Couples, Cabrera and Leishman will fade and would oppose them.

Yes, I also think Couples & Cabrera will fade. I don't know much about Leishman.

Some big swinging & swonging is possible today, & I'd deffo not want Sneddy @ 5/2. Happy at 25/1 though.

If Woods gets on a roll, I think the Gallery's will try & roar him home. There is a bunch of negative Media noise, but I think the average Joe loves him.

I'm not aftertiming, as I had a whole bunch of bets myself, most of which expensively sunk without trace, but I still have a cracking sweat with Kuchar, @ 37/1. At one stage in-running, he was down to 9/1, & I started considering saving a bit, then he went right out to 90/1. He is generally 16/1 now, & I'm pretty sure he must be the value in the field at 16/1 this morning - he is 4 under.

I only backed him because I got very lucky with him via a misclick a while back, but I've followed him since & he seems such a lobvely chap, always happy, lovely demeanour.

Koooooooooooooooooch!

[outragous76]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

[tikay]

Texted my cycling man about Quintana for the TdF.

His reply was to the point.

"Lol, no"

Haha. I knew that being a newbie, I'd get a bit of stick from Fred.

Truth is I've been lurking for a while now, ever since trying to teach myself the nuances of online poker (and failing miserably). Lately, I've resorted to trying to take money away from the bookies instead of other fish, having most of my success in the golf. So I might just be tempted to enter the Augusta tipsters comp.

I don't think I've ever used any of Fred's tips in my bets, but I've definitely found TfT very useful in second-guessing myself. There are definitely a lot of very clued up people around here. Most of the time though, I'm the last one out of the traps, missing out on classic scores like England v San Marino and "Cyprus/James".

I've been looking for something to pay back my debt to Fred, and I truly believe I've found great value in Quintana. Thanks for having a little faith in me tikay. I'm looking forward to July and the accompanying sweat.

By the way, "cheapwetsuit"" comes from suffering a bad beat. When I used to surf, you could often get beaten by a wave like a cheap wetsuit on the reef. Hope it's not the case here.

Sorry Mr Wet, I missed this Post at the time.

Newbies NEVER get stick, quite the contrary, we want more people involved so you are well welcome here. Ignore Chompy, he's an ice-cream.

We have a chap named Tonji, who runs a Cycling Thread you may enjoy, see.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59962.0

You used to surf? Where, anywhere interesting?

I visited, twice in fact, the Surfers Paradise in Hawaii (well, Ohau), Ehukai Beach, jeez, that surf is SCARY, incredible BOOM as it breaks. I never actually surfed of course, just stood on the beach in awe of those guys riding the waves.

The so-called "Banzai Pipeline" has to be seen - & heard - to be believed. Sad to relate, but many surfers met an untimely death there back in the day.

[tikay]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

Thanks Guy, welcome back.

What do you think the correct prices for Westwood should be? Betty prices, as a general rule, are rarely far out. Deffo happy to get on, but only if we are getting a good price, & personally, I have no idea.

[TightEnd]

Hamilton: 'Quali performance, we're there. But not in the race.'

Alonso 'Lacking quali performance but race pace is good.Races today not a maximum push; 80 per cent push."

in the post race conferences

Its rare I disagree with Doobs, and I missed commenting yesterday, but I can't have Hamilton 8-1 as value

Three teams quicker than the Mercedes in races. The hope for the bet must be a step change in upgrades for Mercedes relative to the front runners prior to the European season

The problem with this is that the Merc is quite a backward car aerodynamically, they have the engine, they have the driver but they don't have an Adrian Newey/similar to design something that will convert single lap pace to race pace

[tikay]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

Thanks Guy, welcome back.

What do you think the correct prices for Westwood should be? Betty prices, as a general rule, are rarely far out. Deffo happy to get on, but only if we are getting a good price, & personally, I have no idea.

Just some more on that Westwood suggestion. He is around 48 on Betty, and best prices 40/1 with the bookies, so that is encouraging.

[Doobs]

Hamilton: 'Quali performance, we're there. But not in the race.'

Alonso 'Lacking quali performance but race pace is good.Races today not a maximum push; 80 per cent push."

in the post race conferences

Its rare I disagree with Doobs, and I missed commenting yesterday, but I can't have Hamilton 8-1 as value

Three teams quicker than the Mercedes in races. The hope for the bet must be a step change in upgrades for Mercedes relative to the front runners prior to the European season

The problem with this is that the Merc is quite a backward car aerodynamically, they have the engine, they have the driver but they don't have an Adrian Newey/similar to design something that will convert single lap pace to race pace

Not going to disagree, the race performance looked a bit disappointing.  He is now out to 10s.  

Edit.  Should have added that they seemed quicker in the race last time and I was expecting them to be at least on a par with the Lotus and Ferrari.  It didn't seem to be the case this time.

Got a big sweat on the masters so not going to be too down.  

[tikay]

Hamilton: 'Quali performance, we're there. But not in the race.'

Alonso 'Lacking quali performance but race pace is good.Races today not a maximum push; 80 per cent push."

in the post race conferences

Its rare I disagree with Doobs, and I missed commenting yesterday, but I can't have Hamilton 8-1 as value

Three teams quicker than the Mercedes in races. The hope for the bet must be a step change in upgrades for Mercedes relative to the front runners prior to the European season

The problem with this is that the Merc is quite a backward car aerodynamically, they have the engine, they have the driver but they don't have an Adrian Newey/similar to design something that will convert single lap pace to race pace

Not going to disagree, the race performance looked a bit disappointing.  He is now out to 10s. 

Got a big sweat on the masters so not going to be too down. 

Who are your Masters sweats Doobs? Remind me.