Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

It's v hard to evaluate loads of them, looking at some of the bigger numbers
Our Brighton bet has arguably gained a small amount of equity, our Tampa Bay bet has lost a small amount of equity as they on a bad run at moment but baseball season is so long anyway. Our Chelsea bet has lost a small amount of equity but our Arsenal bet is 11/8 and we're on at 11/4.

[Dubai]

The Middlesex bet gained some equity after a good start, Shah bet obv has lost equity

Not sure how we doing on the Walsall bets, perhaps you could remind us

[tikay]

The Middlesex bet gained some equity after a good start, Shah bet obv has lost equity

Not sure how we doing on the Walsall bets, perhaps you could remind us

I would say "middling". Ask EsoLegend.

[tikay]

It's v hard to evaluate loads of them, looking at some of the bigger numbers
Our Brighton bet has arguably gained a small amount of equity, our Tampa Bay bet has lost a small amount of equity as they on a bad run at moment but baseball season is so long anyway. Our Chelsea bet has lost a small amount of equity but our Arsenal bet is 11/8 and we're on at 11/4.

The Brighton bet, a lumpy £300, we are on at 9/2, they are currently 7/2.

[Dubai]

Nah they are nearer 9/2. Probably 4.25/1 in a liquid market

[tikay]

16-1 and 6-1 fine, yup.

There should be a "Goodbye £20" smiley.......

We have....

£10 @ 16/1, Corals, Danny Danny Swanson FGS, Peterborough v Brighton.


£10 @ 6/1, Corals, Danny Danny Swanson ANYTIME GS, Peterborough v Brighton.

ON
 

SingleID:O/1597594/0000065
Danny Swanson16/1Peterborough v Brighton - 16/04/2013
Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£170.00
SingleID:O/1597594/0000066
Danny Swanson6/1Peterborough v Brighton - 16/04/2013
Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£70.00

BetVictor go 25/1 and 8/1 if anyone fancies a dabble...

Thanks Simon.

I got our bet on 40 minutes after it was suggested, in which time the price had tightened considerably, not surprising really, as it only takes small amounts to move these Markets.

Can't really explain why BetVictor now go much bigger, maybe they had not put their prices up, or perhaps it was a reaction to the fact that Chompy was on.

He is NOW generally around 16/1 FGS, & 5/1 Anytime, except for a few odd spots.

BetVictor are now back in line with the market.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/peterborough-v-brighton/first-goalscorer

[tikay]

Nah they are nearer 9/2. Probably 4.25/1 in a liquid market

Well I assume you mean in reality, I was going by Oddschecker.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

[Dubai]

Better off just checking bf, particularly in markets like that where bookmakers are more likely to have several teams they are ducking if they are losers ante post, gives you a misconception of the market on occasions

[Bad Beat]

 While I totally understand that a high priority for Blonde is that a really great thread does not get soured by an argument that cannot be sorted I do believe we are all a little more mature than the average internet-forum-dweller and we should have some discussions if we are to make our punting more effective, efficient and profitable.

 That is one of the most important things we are here for.

 One thing I want to discuss, that shouldn't upset anyone too much or be controversial is William Hill priority prices and bets of that ilk.

  I have posted here in the past that these should all be put down to me blind if anyone is nervous about taking them. I stressed that we should take them all. I also wrote a long post about it which I have now found and I'll quote:
 
"It's not often when we are sports betting that we can know with absolute certainty that we are having a value bet. That is the beauty of sports betting. It's all about opinions.

 The ante post markets on the Cheltenham Festival have 100% knowledge. All the information is out there. The prices opened up over a year ago and they've been polished and honed by the layers and chipped away at by the backers. Sometimes a new piece of information will come out and we can take advantage and place a value bet. Maybe a stable will be over-hyped and their horses over-backed, maybe another stable will be out of fashion and their runners ignored. Maybe a stable may go out of form and we might notice before the market catches up. Maybe a trial race will lead to a general over-reaction or a tipster like Pricewise will cause a hysterical panic and a shortening to a low price. All of these things are the reasons we should look at these markets every day.

 There are thousands of other people doing that as well though and I can assure you that if Hurricane Fly "should" be 4/1 right now it would be. This is a liquid market which always catches up.

 The only way that these Hills Priority Prices could not be a good thing is if the overound in the markets was so large that removing 3% on every runner still makes the number come to over 100.

 They are a no-brainer and they should all be bet, even if your heart of hearts tells you that you fancy something else in the race. If you really hate the idea of betting the fly at 3/1 I have good news. You can lay 3.55 on the machine. If we really don't like the idea of taking these prices then we should lay the horses.

 If anyone has no appetite for taking on these bets you can put them all down to me blind. I have no need to study form or have a view. I just know they are value and that is something you don't really know too often."
 

[TightEnd]

World Championship Snooker

Below is our current mini-portfiolio. We lost two players already, but both were huge-priced Banzais. 

Jack Lisowski, £3 @ 100/1

Judd Trump £50 @ 8/1

(I now gather Kurt Maflin is out, so I have a £3 loss to take tomorrow)

Current prices are.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/winner

There will be no limit, beyond the normal Bankroll rules, as to how much we invest, if we spot some value, we will bet it.

Based on what a good & trusted friend told me, someone who understands the snooker as well as anyone I know, Ronnie would be a wonderful value bet at 7/1. He is currently best-priced 13/2, even that looks value to me, but if you see his price touch 7/1, let me know please. I have had a decent bet myself at 7/1, & I'd rather like to press at that price.

Ronnie has been on sort of gardening leave, but I think he is diferent class.

Click to see full-size image.

It remains a long shot, of course, but Lisowski is 40-1 now

Value we can't eat, but sweaty value would be good

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I have returned from my nieces house. Had I not been so good at hide and seek I would have been able to give you a winning rugby league tip but in the scheme of things the squeal of joy when she finally found me was better than any winning tip or cake.

I think I shall use a child like tool and suggest you have 5 minutes on the naughty step for betting so much on one horse race. Not going to criticise the nature of the bet or the selections but you know I am a super nit and I hated every moment of it and it is your responsibility. But like my niece when the 5 minutes has been spent we must welcome her back with a huge cuddle to let her know she is much loved and hopefully she will learn from what she did.

My metaphorical cuddle consists of some photos, so that we remember that sport is wonderful and winning money on it is so much fun. Whilst I was there I tested her for colour blindnes and unusually she appears to be colour blind.




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[edgascoigne]

One thing that I think would be good re: the priority price offers and the ilk is for Fred to get into a strict habit of checking the Betfair market before placing the bet.

It's obviously difficult without the historical price/time data to go back on but I would bet a pound to a penny that of the Priority Prices we have taken there is a large degree of variety between selections that are 'tight' to the Betfair price and selections that aren't.

Example 1

A team are 5/2 generally and WH 'boost' them to 7/2 for a short period. The offer at first glance looks great as we are beating the industry general price by miles.....however, on a cursory check Fred notices that the Betfair market is 4.2-4.3

This may be that arbing money is pushing the selection's price out but it may also be that the books are trying to duck the team in question and are actually well under the 'genuine/true' price.

In this example Fred has a smidge of value but Kelly would suggest a smaller bet than in Example 2.....

Example 2

A horse is 5/2 generally and WH 'boost' it to 7/2 for a short period. The horse is a rock solid 3.6-3.65 on Betfair in the antepost market and has been trading at this price for some time, suggesting a great degree of confidence in said price/implied probability. The 7/2 is definitively massive, and Kelly would like us to have our conkers on.



If Fred can finesse to this approach and decrease bet sizes when the margin on these bets is lower (but still +ve) and increase bet sizes when the margin on these bets is higher then Fred's +ve expectation over time will rise massively, ensuring he benefits fully from his awareness of these offers.

[Dubai]

The above is obviously step 1 before placing any priority odds bet

[tikay]

While I totally understand that a high priority for Blonde is that a really great thread does not get soured by an argument that cannot be sorted I do believe we are all a little more mature than the average internet-forum-dweller and we should have some discussions if we are to make our punting more effective, efficient and profitable.

Absolutely this. Discussion & debate is what we do well, I just would not like to see folks falling out.

We are here to have fun, there is no other reason to be part of a recreational Forum.

I agree & disagree with loads loads of stuff put up here, even by Elders. I think I understand punting better because of Fred though.

We will learn from The Masters, thanks to everyone's input.

[Doobs]

Wtf is going on here Doobs, why are you listing losing tips someone has put up?

Perhaps we should revisit the Grand National selections you thoroughly reasoned before we bet them on Saturday. Not sure why you seem to have decided your voice is the one that has final say on bets suggested either, you do a good job putting a case for not betting other peoples picks but 5/6 bets in the National with no reasoning from you is fine. Can't have it both ways fella. Btw VC were betting 6 places non runner no bet for a long time, if you truly believed all those horses were thread worthy value then you picked the 2 nd nut worse time to bet them. Im stuggling to see how these selections were anything more than your fancies picked out that morning.


Tbh you seem to have spent a bit too mich time  trying to put up value each way first scorers and what you think are bad each way races before Dubai and Neil do their thing.

 It's not a competition mate and Aaron baiting isn't a sport we have to get involved in.

I admit I was a bit OOL last night, but the above is wrong.

If you look back through the thread you would discover that I investigated the VC offer a week or so before the race and I posted that the prices were shorter than elsewhere, so the offer wasn't worth taking.  I looked at every single horse in the race at that time and on another occasion when I didn't post on the thread.

On the day of the race I looked again and discovered they had pushed the prices of some horses out.  I went through every horse in the race and picked out the 4 that were value. The only one of the 4 I had previously backed was Imperial Commander.  I took 20s under the VC offer.  I would have posted at the time, but VC cut the price immediately after my bet.  I didn't even look at the form of the 2 outsiders I picked as I was going away for the day.

I put up the reasoning for the 4 bets and none was 5/6.

I have posted several posts over the last couple of months defending Aaron.  Last night I got frustrated with the mention of his 12/1 tip so I looked up the post for context.  I should have explained why the price was now and not 12s.  Unfortunately I was tired and grouchy, so when I discovered he didn't just tip the one bet that weekend I bumped a couple.

The aftertiming of winners is a bit frustrating after a while and got to me a bit last night.  Should have just let it go and gone to bed.

I have learned a lot through Neil and Dubai through this thread and am very grateful for that.  

Apologies to Tikay for souring the thread.  

Time for a rest from this thread I think.

 I wasnt going through this again, but I covered the GN bets and Aaron thing previously in the post above.

There simply weren't any better mathematical e/w bets on the GN vs Betfair at the time I placed the bets or on the other two times I went through the BetVictor book.  The only exception was that it was possible to get 20/1 Imperial Commander around a week before the GN, but when I put my bet on the price went.   And it really was very quickly after, certainly too quick for me to post about it.  I can't say for certain there were never better mathematical bets than this, just that I never saw them and I don't think anybody put any up.

I knew there were doubts about Imperial Commander, but without those doubts the price would surely have been shorter.  There were 3 months between the races and I incorrectly assumed he'd be likely to have had enough recovery time.

FWIW at the time I put up the bets, the horse had pulled up precisely once since the Gold Cup win in 2010.

With hindsight, the bets were no good, and unless Imperial Commander shows up in the foxhunters, or is an enormous price, I am unlikely to back it again.  

I hope these things are put to bed now.  

Edit. Thanks Neil.