Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Oh my, think that was a BIG goal for us!

That brings in both of the big bets, yes? (Assuming Bayern hold the lead).

[horseplayer]

super mario

[tikay]

Boom!

The HT/FT is home & hosed.

The only minoir blot on the evening so far is that Blackburn have equalised at Millwwall.

[redarmi]

Looks great and will probably follow blind but how on earth can they be wrong on every quote? Ie surely they must be overestimating the number of x people in y position for the others to be all wrong, if this makes sense.

Been thinking about this nfl draft stuff a bit and this comment in particular and I think they are making a fundamental mistake of thinking that these things are normally distributed when they really arent.  I haven't looked at it in depth this year but there are certain players that are literally a certainty to be drafted in the first round.  The chances of them not are on a par with a poker player folding aces preflop in a normal game.  This isn't a sporting event per se so we can expect the GM's to act rationally and do certain things 100% of the time but the markets are overestimating the chances of them not doing it.  I have already alerted Tighty to one US facing firm with prices but others will go up and they will make substantial mistakes of the sort you won't see very often.

[Doobs]

what would happen if you backed one Mullins horse and another wins??!

Still get it back?

Yes.  They confirmed it on twitter, but they have no prices on the 16.20 and aren't close to best price in the next.  Think First Lieutenant is as good a place to start as any currently, but if they do a good price on the 16.20 it may be better.  Same applies if they offer 2/1 or so on Inish Island in the race after.

[horseplayer]

blackburn 2-1 up

[tikay]

Pepe is on a hiding to nothing when he takes over, and that Heynchkes (sp?) chap must be feeling a bit odd. Did he resign, or was it Hobson's Choice?

[Doobs]

blackburn 2-1 up

Maybe we should consider backing them for promotion?

[tikay]

blackburn 2-1 up

Maybe we should consider backing them for promotion?

What do you know about such matters? I shall consult my resident expert, Eso Up Down Middle Kral, thank you.

[Tal]

Another quiet night Chez Fred.

Obviously I miss an afternoon and evening to find out everyone's bathing in a couple of cases of Krug Brut 88 and puffing on Gurkha's Black Dragons.

In the words of Tikay, Effemelle.

[horseplayer]

Pepe is on a hiding to nothing when he takes over, and that Heynchkes (sp?) chap must be feeling a bit odd. Did he resign, or was it Hobson's Choice?

cvertainly did not resign

they are trying to shuffle him upstairs but i think he has now realised that he may be in demand despite being about 105

[Tal]

Radjabov lost today. Not over yet, but there's a lady coughing in the wings who looks as though she has been poured into her clothes but has forgotten to say when.

[redarmi]

We should back Dortmund -FT @ 4/1 now i think.  7/4 just to win the game is decent too but think the -FT is better as it is a bit stale.  For the -FT I make half kelly a gbp63 bet but I do think they will go off shorter than they are at the moment based on tonights result.

[horseplayer]

well done tonight reds

what makes you think they will go shorter based on tonight?

personally i think mourinho has spotted how to beat bd and i am quite confident r madrid will go through

not sure having your most influential player agree a move to your big rivals (in league terms) a day before a game like this is ideal either

[The Camel]

(Ignoring you-win's markets)

The NFL Draft is this weekend. The finest College players are selected for the NFL over 254 picks across three days in New York, 7-10 picks per NFL team

Click to see full-size image.

The NFL draft is a huge industry in the US. It is covered live on ESPN and NFLN and all media outlets employ experts and journalists for the event



A measure of the scale? Look at this

There are currently 506 Mock Drafts published, where experts select picks to each team..

http://dcprosportsreport.com/MockDraft.htm

In 2004, I won a contest by www.footballoutsiders.com to select the NFL Draft first round, and got the most picks right. When I won, the site emailed me to check if I was really from London, UK. Just as well I didn't say Bedfordshire, UK really. I kept my location simple, stupid.

"Congratulations to Richard Prew of London, the winner of the first annual Football Outsiders Draft Contest. Richard, who correctly predicted 26 of the 32 players selected in the first round and nine players in their exact slot, informs us that it's possible to watch the draft live on ESPN even in the UK. What a wonderful world we live in."

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2004/draft-holes-werent-filled

For a geek like me, this was a major achievement

Last year, I made money on this market, which can be vouched for by PM correspondents who asked for my opinion


Paddy Power offer a few markets on the NFL draft and they can be seen at

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/american-football/nfl-draft-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=662505


I am not sure where Paddy Power get their prices from, or who odds-sets

I am entirely confident that I know more than this person, and consider more than half of the over-unders in the markets offered either mis-priced and/or the wrong way round.

I am proposing two maximum bets

The first is not too exciting, but is still a way to nick £50

Number of TightEnds to be drafted in the first round: Over 0.5 3/10

This is a certainty. 1/50 might be a price here

This gentleman stands a chance of being drafted as high as 13 of the 32 first round draft picks to the NY Jets

http://www.draftcountdown.com/ScoutingReports/TE/Tyler-Eifert.php

Recommendation £150 at 3/10.


The second is a combination Maximum bet, so £75 each

a)  Number of Quarterbacks to be drafted in the first round: Over 1 at 11/8

I think three could be. Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib

Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals are three teams in the top ten picks alone that could do so

An interesting feature of the Draft is "trading" so teams can trade picks for a package of others of similar value to move around. I would be expecting teams to trade into the back end of the first round to select Barkley or Nassib

b) Number of Wide Receivers to be drafted in the first round: Over 3.5 at 6/5

I can make a case for six gentlemen to be drafted in the first round at this position

http://www.draftcountdown.com/Rankings/WR.php

I have Austin, Patterson and Hopkins as first rounders, and we need one of three other possibles for the bet to land

Teams in the back end of the first round like the Vikings (Percy Harvin upped sticks to the Seahawks), Texans (Andre Johnson has urged his team to draft another receiver) and St Louis Rams (need weapons for Bradford, no recieving talent on roster) are all possibles to select this position


Summary

Number of TightEnds to be drafted in the first round: Over 0.5 3/10 £150

Number of Quarterbacks to be drafted in the first round: Over 1 at 11/8 £75

Number of Wide Receivers to be drafted in the first round: Over 3.5 at 6/5 £75


In the interests of not being over-exposed I have left the following alone

I consider the overs on all to be the bet.

Number of LSU Players in first round over 1 at 1/2 (Mingo and Kevin Minter)
Number of Alabama players over 3.5 at 5/6  (Warmack, Milliner and Fluker are certainties, Jesse Williams a good bet to be 4)
Number of Running backs over 0.5 at 11/5 (Eddie Lacy is better than 2-1 to go in the first)

I don't like the over on QBs one bit.

I think 0 is very likely.

3/10 about over 0.5 TEs is free money.