Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Fred now has a YouWin Account, but I'd rather like some feedback about them before Depositing.

I haven't got one but it doesn't  look particularly promising

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr-news/youwin-sportsbook-confiscates-14-677-players-2011-5176/

I am erring on the side of caution here

Edit.  Just for balance they seem to have settled some of those disputes later and are now rated c.  Skybet is B+, Betfair a-, hills A etc

[horseplayer]

i think this was discussed before

general consensus was to avoid

ok they are often better price but worth the potential hassle of account closure, delayed withdrawal countless emails and potential funds confiscation

think not

[BigAdz]

YOU WIN-they dont pay......

[horseplayer]

Money back as a free bet if your selection finishes 2nd to a Willie Mullins winner. We're gonna be busy. #williewin

vcbet just tweeted the above

have not looked at punch at all but this on paper looks appealing enough

[BigAdz]

Money back as a free bet if your selection finishes 2nd to a Willie Mullins winner. We're gonna be busy. #williewin

vcbet just tweeted the above

have not looked at punch at all but this on paper looks appealing enough

Max £25, but looks to be per race from what I can see!

[tikay]

YouWin - yes, something like that (Doobsy, horsey & Adz) was lurking in my mind.

Think we'll avoid them. Winning once is hard enough, if we gotta fight to get paid, that's like doing a double.

[TightEnd]

(Ignoring you-win's markets)

The NFL Draft is this weekend. The finest College players are selected for the NFL over 254 picks across three days in New York, 7-10 picks per NFL team

Click to see full-size image.

The NFL draft is a huge industry in the US. It is covered live on ESPN and NFLN and all media outlets employ experts and journalists for the event



A measure of the scale? Look at this

There are currently 506 Mock Drafts published, where experts select picks to each team..

http://dcprosportsreport.com/MockDraft.htm

In 2004, I won a contest by www.footballoutsiders.com to select the NFL Draft first round, and got the most picks right. When I won, the site emailed me to check if I was really from London, UK. Just as well I didn't say Bedfordshire, UK really. I kept my location simple, stupid.

"Congratulations to Richard Prew of London, the winner of the first annual Football Outsiders Draft Contest. Richard, who correctly predicted 26 of the 32 players selected in the first round and nine players in their exact slot, informs us that it's possible to watch the draft live on ESPN even in the UK. What a wonderful world we live in."

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2004/draft-holes-werent-filled

For a geek like me, this was a major achievement

Last year, I made money on this market, which can be vouched for by PM correspondents who asked for my opinion


Paddy Power offer a few markets on the NFL draft and they can be seen at

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/american-football/nfl-draft-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=662505


I am not sure where Paddy Power get their prices from, or who odds-sets

I am entirely confident that I know more than this person, and consider more than half of the over-unders in the markets offered either mis-priced and/or the wrong way round.

I am proposing two maximum bets

The first is not too exciting, but is still a way to nick £50

Number of TightEnds to be drafted in the first round: Over 0.5 3/10

This is a certainty. 1/50 might be a price here

This gentleman stands a chance of being drafted as high as 13 of the 32 first round draft picks to the NY Jets

http://www.draftcountdown.com/ScoutingReports/TE/Tyler-Eifert.php

Recommendation £150 at 3/10.


The second is a combination Maximum bet, so £75 each

a)  Number of Quarterbacks to be drafted in the first round: Over 1 at 11/8

I think three could be. Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib

Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals are three teams in the top ten picks alone that could do so

An interesting feature of the Draft is "trading" so teams can trade picks for a package of others of similar value to move around. I would be expecting teams to trade into the back end of the first round to select Barkley or Nassib

b) Number of Wide Receivers to be drafted in the first round: Over 3.5 at 6/5

I can make a case for six gentlemen to be drafted in the first round at this position

http://www.draftcountdown.com/Rankings/WR.php

I have Austin, Patterson and Hopkins as first rounders, and we need one of three other possibles for the bet to land

Teams in the back end of the first round like the Vikings (Percy Harvin upped sticks to the Seahawks), Texans (Andre Johnson has urged his team to draft another receiver) and St Louis Rams (need weapons for Bradford, no recieving talent on roster) are all possibles to select this position


Summary

Number of TightEnds to be drafted in the first round: Over 0.5 3/10 £150

Number of Quarterbacks to be drafted in the first round: Over 1 at 11/8 £75

Number of Wide Receivers to be drafted in the first round: Over 3.5 at 6/5 £75


In the interests of not being over-exposed I have left the following alone

I consider the overs on all to be the bet.

Number of LSU Players in first round over 1 at 1/2 (Mingo and Kevin Minter)
Number of Alabama players over 3.5 at 5/6  (Warmack, Milliner and Fluker are certainties, Jesse Williams a good bet to be 4)
Number of Running backs over 0.5 at 11/5 (Eddie Lacy is better than 2-1 to go in the first)

[tikay]

Brilliant!

For Fred, of course, we will likely get Restricted to pennies, but if I am able to get any meaningful money on, I will.

[Dubai]

Looks great and will probably follow blind but how on earth can they be wrong on every quote? Ie surely they must be overestimating the number of x people in y position for the others to be all wrong, if this makes sense.

[TightEnd]

Looks great and will probably follow blind but how on earth can they be wrong on every quote? Ie surely they must be overestimating the number of x people in y position for the others to be all wrong, if this makes sense.

This year is considered to be a poor draft

There is no Andrew Luck, no RG3 at QB for example

There are reckoned to be 4-5 offensive tackles that could go top 10

Perhaps 8-10 defensive linemen that could go in the top 25

This is just a fluke of the school year if you like.

However on draft day strange things happen

Its a giant game theory. Teams panic, positions go off the board due to scarcity

QBs go higher than expected as it is such an important position

ditto WR...a couple come off the board, but then there is a run on the position

THIS HAPPENS EVERY YEAR and is NEVER refelcted in mock drafts or betting prices..because they do not take into account human nature when teams are on the clock with 15 minutes to pick

This is also why so many teams make bad draft picks, and make "busts", a scientific process of scouting players and ranking them gets overtaken by emotion on the day

[Dubai]

Should we not be going unders on defensive linesman then for example? Or is there no market?

[TightEnd]

Should we not be going unders on defensive linesman then for example? Or is there no market?

No market offered

They offer markets in the glamour positions

As it happens, this is a fairly unique year with lots of talented "big uglies"...

However in the latter stages of the first round where

a) the best big men have gone 1-20 and

b) the better teams last year reside....

expect Wide receivers and QBs to be picked up



For The Camel, 49ers have a boat load of picks..expect them to trade up to around 10-20 to select a single greater talent (as the team is so close to winning the superbowl, chock full of talent) than two later picks alone would get them

[tikay]

Tighty's OCD NFL Draft Thingy.

As expected, I got Restricted to puny amounts on all markets, but I want to be part of the fun, if only to see the Tighty Reports, including Heavy Rollers, Social Demograph & Swirling Wind, & Stadia reports.

So we are on all three, with Paddy Power, as below.

OVER 3.5 Wide Receivers, £8 @ 6/5.


OVER 1.5 Quarterbacks, £7 @ 11/8


OVER 0.5 Tight Ends, £35 @ 3/10.


ON


 NFL Draft Specials Total Number of Wide Receivers Drafted in the 1st Round
26-04-2013 00:05
Total Number Drafted in 1st Round
Over (3.5) @ 6/5
 
NFL Draft Specials Total Number of Quarterbacks Drafted in the 1st Round
26-04-2013 00:05
Total Number Drafted in 1st Round
Over (1.5) @ 11/8
 
NFL Draft Specials Total Number of Tight Ends Drafted in the 1st Round
26-04-2013 00:05
Total Number Drafted in 1st Round
Over (0.5) @ 3/10
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Over (3.5) @ 6/5
1 line at £8.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £8.00
Potential returns: £17.60
No: O/23146337/0000294

 
Win
Single: Over (1.5) @ 11/8
1 line at £7.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £7.00
Potential returns: £16.62
No: O/23146337/0000295

 
Win
Single: Over (0.5) @ 3/10
1 line at £35.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £35.00
Potential returns: £45.50
No: O/23146337/0000296

 
Total stake: £50.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £50.00

[TightEnd]

Chris Gayle ch 120 Now

8 4's 9 6's in 7 overs and counting

fastest ever 100 by a team in the IPL

against the Puny warriors....

[Dubai]

Gayle going berserk in ipl if people aren't watching. Most crazy innings I've seen

95 from 26 I think lol