Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I must admit, I have played but modestly.

Neither team have anything to play for, but he kids do. Home team advantage of a bunch of kids all out to prove themselves in final game atmosphere vs season long pro's looking forward to their holiday.

Certainly not a max in my house.

But if the gurus are convinced then the ht,ft should be considered?

Well I'll see what they suggest, but for now I'm perfectly content with the bet we have. It (the Outright) is also an easy bet to insure against, if we started to feel that way.

As things stand we have £150 @ 13/8, & we have value.

[horseplayer]

last nights team

1. Steve Phillips
14. Kelvin Mellor
5. Mark Ellis
3. Harry Davis
34. Kevin Stewart
11. Byron Moore
19. Abdul Osman
12. Oliver Turton
31. Bradden Inman
26. Chuks Aneke
10. AJ Leitch-Smith


proposed saturday team?

Garratt
Mellor, Davis, Ray, Toots
Moore, Murph, Turton, Coco
Aj smith, Clayton


sorry about formatting from a bit more reading around it looks like 5 or 6 changes maximum which is still susbstanial in my mind anyway.

the back four and keeper look like having 3 changes minimum.

ok the price will not nosedive all the way in but we have best price thats for sure.

[tikay]

Snooker.

Anyone watch Selby yesterday?

Easily the best performance I have seen so far, he was clinicallly efficient, & he seems to be in good shape.

[tikay]

i cant get on but there are some very very juicy correct score prices for 4-0 and up with paddy power that could be a spot of interest if game goes as it suggests

Probably just made the worst bet ever. Have just misclicked Crewe to win 4-0.  Tikay would be proud.  Hoping these academy boys can play a bit.

Everything going to plan so far then.......

[tikay]

Another offer.

Paddy power are offering your stake back if you are 2nd to Sir Des Champs in the 17.30 at Punchestown tomorrow.  The max is £100.  They are top price about Long Run and First Lieutenant.  Suggest £100 (or as much as you can) on Long Run 17.30 Punchestown for the offers spreadsheet.

I think Long Run must still be the better horse out of that and First Lieutenant and didn't run at Aintree.  I think either are obviously very good value under this offer and it is more important to take the offer than worry about the horse.

I also suggest taking the 9/2 (best is 5/1) about First Lieutenant with BetVictor for the same race.  If it comes second to a Mullins horse (sir des champs) we get our £25 back.  

That should cover it.  

Thanks Doobs.

We have already placed the Long Run bet with Paddy Power, & the bet was confirmed on thread last night.

We have now added Part Two.....

£25 @ 9/2, BetVictor, First Leiutenant. Money Back if a Mullins trained horse (e.g., Sir Des Champ) wins.

ON

Bet(s) Confirmed
You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 137.50

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Punchestown (Ireland) 17:30
 
FIRST LIEUTENANT
(Horse Racing Outright)
 
Odds: 9/2
Stake: 25.00
 
Possible Return:  137.50

[aaron1867]

It looks as if I am going to have to follow the Walsall bet too, looks a fantastic spot.

But using the same mentality as the suggestion, I am tipping Charlton to beat M'boro at Middlesbrough this weekend at 12/5.

Middlesbrough nothing to play for and have seen some M'boro fans saying that their manager is putting a few of the u21's in for what is a meaningless match for them, whilst Charlton have a very slim chance of sneaking into 6th place, whilst boasting an impressive away record. It seems M'boro will be playing a weaker side, already out of form and up against a form team in Charlton. I am definitely expecting a weak M'boro side being put out by M'boro.

Suggest £40 @ 12/5, which is a good price considering with Coral (also a few more at 12/5 also)

[tikay]

Recommend £150 or more if u want  Arsenal to beat Man U @6/4 boyles, Betfred

We will be laying this back nearer the time once either market overreacts to the the fact United (most likely) will have already won the league and its a must win for Arsenal. Expecting silly short prices on Arsenal if Utd win tonight ie sub 2.2

They are already 2.42/2.44 on bf and market will only go one way if Utd win as it always overestimates the "nothing to play for" factor. If the market goes the other way if they don't win tonight we will also trade out for a loss if need be.

Mr Dubai Sir.

This was executed as a potential trade. "Expecting silly prices if Man Utd win tonight etc".

So we got £150 on @ 6/4 with Betfred.

The price is now moving steadily down, as you predicted, & is, generally, 5/4, 6/5 & 11/10.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-man-utd/winner

Betfair currently go 2.26.

Don't forget to nudge me if & when we decide to Trade.

[tikay]

NBA Playoffs

Golden State Warriors 131, Denver Nuggets 117

We were on Nuggets to win the Series 4-0, so we are dead in the water now. As luck would have it, we got Restricted to £5.55.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0855, Wednesday April 24th

LOSS on Month = £1,053.39

Outstanding bets £2,388.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[outragous76]

championship playoffs are going to be a sweat for fre with that Brighton bet??!?!?!

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0900, Wednesday April 24th

We made a profit (a what?) of £231 yesterday.

Most of the profit came from a series of bets - about 12 in total - on the same game, & everything worked out pretty good for us, & our two main bets both won. We had some other FGS stuff at huge prices, & so even if the main bets went south, we still had a chance to win. If only it was always that easy.

Well done to reds & horsey, who set the whole thing up, & generated net profits of around £220 between them.

Dubai also shouted at me to do one of those dirty EW bet things, & we nicked £50 there, when Sizing Europe got 2nd to Sacre. Sacre seemed less impressive than usual, a combo of ground, distance & maybe going to the well once too often, perhaps exercising him a little. He won easily enough, yes, but Sizing Europe gave him a decent test, & we were freerolling the win.

We had a small loss on NBA & some other bits & bobs, but a much better day than of late.

Selby, in the World Snooker, was most impressive.

Today, we have an interest at Punchestown, & another HT/FT on tonight's CL semi.

Fingers crossed for another good day.

[tikay]

championship playoffs are going to be a sweat for fre with that Brighton bet??!?!?!

Looking forward to it.

Don't forget, the MO is that we planned to lay half of it depending how things go.

[Dubai]

Interested on peoples views on the Arsenal/Utd market, has it bottomed out at 2.24 or will there be a surge of money on sunday?

Peoples thoughts on Barca at evens in leg 2 when 4-0 down?

[Doobs]

Interested on peoples views on the Arsenal/Utd market, has it bottomed out at 2.24 or will there be a surge of money on sunday?

Peoples thoughts on Barca at evens in leg 2 when 4-0 down?

Well I put a lay at 2.26 an hour or so ago and didn't get any takers.  I was thinking of switching so that I was left with a lay, but I guess I should lay the bet off first. 

The Crewe Walsall lays got taken at 2.32/2.34 FWIW.  Have laid off about two thirds.

The evens doesn't look too big to me, what is your thinking?  Are you thinking they may rest some?

Phil Parkinson's has indicated that he will rest a few carrying injuries for Bradford City on Saturday.  You can get 21/20 at betvictor and coral which just beat a weak Betfair market when I checked this morning.  Bradford have been in good form, so I wouldn't go crazy, but suggest it is good for £30 or so, Cheltenham 21/20 at BetVictor or Corals.

[Dubai]

There could possibly be a lot of money for Arsenal, think they will go off 2.12 or 2.34. So id let it ride for minute. Think Barca will be bet, Munich can lose and progress and usually a load of money for opposition of teams like that, cant see them going off Evens, zero chance rest players, crowd would kill them if did