Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

calling ipl fans

how is the  man of the match market decided for the ipl please?

i notice tendulkar is priced up at 8-1 today with stan james

I can see where you are going with this.......

[horseplayer]

calling ipl fans

how is the  man of the match market decided for the ipl please?

i notice tendulkar is priced up at 8-1 today with stan james

I can see where you are going with this.......

has anybody else priced up? cant see they have but if i knew how it was decided would help!

[Doobs]

One for the Fred offers sheet ?  Suggest backing both Call Me Bubbles and Viconte Du Noyer £25 win Punchestown 16.20 with BetVictor (top two in betting both W Mullins to potentially benefit from money back offer)
Betfair prices suggest one or the other wins approx 50% of time and a decent amount of time we get money back for 2nd place

Has possible implications for Fred if the moneyback were to be triggered as it's a one time only deal and we have a similar bet already later in the day

Thanks Simon.

I'll need the horse hexperts to cast their eye over that.

Good luck if you are on, same to us if we climb aboard.

You can't take the offer twice, so if you place this bet and it wins, you lose the offer for later.  

I'd say it was clearly bad to have two bets running on the same offer at once.  In the later race and the one we backed First Lieutenant you are getting below best price with betvictor, so you need the offer to make the bets in to "good" bets.  If the offer goes, you have then converted the later bet in to a bad one.

FWIW BetVictor are best about Call Me Bubbles, but didn't have a market last night.  So with hindsight it may have been better to start in that race, but it is too late for that now.  

Edit, just had a mess around on a spreadsheet just checking if I was right.  I assumed the real chance of winning of each of the horses was betfair mid price. 

On these assumptions, we would lose about £1 more on the First Lieutenant bet than we gain on the 2 new bets if we added the new bets.  If we new the prices BetVictor were going to put up, we would have been better backing Call Me Bubbles than either of the other two.  First Lieutanant is better on its own than Vinconte Du Noyer. 

[tikay]

calling ipl fans

how is the  man of the match market decided for the ipl please?

i notice tendulkar is priced up at 8-1 today with stan james

I can see where you are going with this.......

has anybody else priced up? cant see they have but if i knew how it was decided would help!

I don't know for sure, but here are a few clues.

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

the bet was to win not to trade

if the bet was to trade would have needed to have more on

happy to let bet ride no problem

Fair enough, we clearly have a good price.  

[horseplayer]

calling ipl fans

how is the  man of the match market decided for the ipl please?

i notice tendulkar is priced up at 8-1 today with stan james

I can see where you are going with this.......

has anybody else priced up? cant see they have but if i knew how it was decided would help!

I don't know for sure, but here are a few clues.

Click to see full-size image.

he has been a triffic player and i tried to sign him when he was 14 i knew hed be a star i did

[Snowball]

Sir De Champs is 5/2 for a short period of time with Laddies, 2/1elsewhere

[Doobs]

Sir De Champs is 5/2 for a short period of time with Laddies, 2/1elsewhere

Too short it seems

[horseplayer]

no good for thread but 8-1 just seems to big for motm considering the circumstances

[tikay]

no good for thread but 8-1 just seems to big for motm considering the circumstances

Yes, it would seem to be an opportunity too good to miss for a symbolic MOTM.

[BigAdz]

no good for thread but 8-1 just seems to big for motm considering the circumstances

Wasnt someone trying to find abet for him to score less than 10?

Cant see him as MOTM if that happens!

[tikay]

no good for thread but 8-1 just seems to big for motm considering the circumstances

Wasnt someone trying to find abet for him to score less than 10?

Cant see him as MOTM if that happens!

Yes, hector asked about a bet for him to score 10 or less, & with good reason, as Mr T has gone to pieces.

The point is.......he is a HUGE figure in India, somewhere between Beckham & Princess Cambridge is here, you cannot underestimate his popularity in India. He gets mobbed just walking down the street.

I think he could get a first ball duck today & still get MOTM.

He is bigger than, well, Robbie Williams & Robert Smith rolled into one.  THAT big.

[BigAdz]

Bigger than you in Poker??

No way Jose!

[Karabiner]

There is a brand new event on the LPGA tour this week, The North Texas LPGA Shootout.

It is called a "shootout" because there is a cut after 36 holes and a further cut for the last round which just leaves the top 50, so basically a standard 72-hole strokeplay event on a course where nobody has any form at all.

The course is a fairly typical 6500 yards long.

Ji-Yai Shin is 20/1 with one major bookie which seems incredibly generous to me.

She may not win but she is no more than a 14/1 shot in my book.

I recommend that fred has £5 EW Ji-Yai Shin.

[horseplayer]

really like this bet tonight

with vcbet under match specials

Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
50 % Or Under
(Dortmund - Possession - Settled By Opta)
Odds: 5/6

So the bet is for dortmund to have at most 49% possession

Here are some stats

group stage

home to ajax won 1-0 45% possession

home to real madrid won 2-1 43% possession (real had 65% at home as well)

home to man city won 1-0 48% possession


knockout stage

home to s donetsk won 3-0 54% possession

home to malaga won 3-2 53% possession



Obviously the most telling stats from the above are the group stage matches against madrid.

Even when beating them at home they only managed 43% of the ball/

Ok so in the knockout they have "won" this bet twice at home. This is more related to them just completely blowing away s donestk (and still they "only" had 54%) And then Malaga which was an end to end game between two counter attacking sides.

Madrid have averaged 51.8% away in CL this season. Ok that does not look great but includes big "losses" away to Galatassary which really was a throw out and a non trying effort and Man City away were they led early then retreated massively.


Basically to sum up all the stats show that madrid are a more possession based side than dortmund. The fact this is the first leg is a slight worry but it wont change the natural playing styles of the sides or at least i dont think it will.

Suggest £45 with vcbet