Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

In the "what may have been" category, Middlesex followed on against Surrey and are 282-2 at close with Chris Rogers, thread's captain bet, 131 not out......

and shortly to depart for the Ashes series!

Middlesex get a draw here at worst, they remain top of LCVCC for another thread bet...

Real shame about Rogers, but we have an amazing County Cricket book at the moment.

If you can do one of your summaries when the current matches conclude, it'd be appreciated.

Sadly, our IPL stuff is not exactly in rude health.

[Bazzaboy]

Mayweather by UD @10/11 Lads (final judgement)

We get our annual masterclass from Mayweather tonight.  He is up against Robert Guerrero who jumped up two weight classes in the hope of getting a shot against Mayweather.  He has clocked up two decent wins at Welterweight so just about deserves his shot.  He is a southpaw with decent skills who likes to fight on the outside, who can tough it out and fight dirty if required.  He has also shown a decent chin.  Mayweather isn't a massive puncher and I think Guerrero has enough know how and ability to hear the final bell.  I expect something like 118-110 to Mayweather.  Recommend £55.

[Tal]

At the risk of being a Connie Contrarian, is there merit in considering laying Ronnie in the final?

Everyone will be betting on him, so the price is unlikely to be on the generous side of correct.

He is also, as the Commentator Bingo proves, his own worst enemy. If he plays at his best, he wins any final against anyone, so that is irrelevant.

But he turns up some days and the other bloke knocks a couple in, he drops his head and doesn't fancy it.

Just curious, really. I pretty much always want him to win.

[Tal]

Mayweather by UD @10/11 Lads (final judgement)

We get our annual masterclass from Mayweather tonight.  He is up against Robert Guerrero who jumped up two weight classes in the hope of getting a shot against Mayweather.  He has clocked up two decent wins at Welterweight so just about deserves his shot.  He is a southpaw with decent skills who likes to fight on the outside, who can tough it out and fight dirty if required.  He has also shown a decent chin.  Mayweather isn't a massive puncher and I think Guerrero has enough know how and ability to hear the final bell.  I expect something like 118-110 to Mayweather.  Recommend £55.

Love this.

If he gets knocked down three times and has his right eye bludgeoned into the fifth row, the judges will still give him the decision.

That won't be necessary, though.

[Marky147]

At the risk of being a Connie Contrarian, is there merit in considering laying Ronnie in the final?

Everyone will be betting on him, so the price is unlikely to be on the generous side of correct.

He is also, as the Commentator Bingo proves, his own worst enemy. If he plays at his best, he wins any final against anyone, so that is irrelevant.

But he turns up some days and the other bloke knocks a couple in, he drops his head and doesn't fancy it.

Just curious, really. I pretty much always want him to win.

I don't think he could lose the final if he turned up and played with the wrong end of the cue against either of these 2!

[The Camel]

This is like watching Greg Norman when he caved in against Nick Faldo at Augusta.

Only difference is Walden seems like a decent bloke.

Horrible but compulsive viewing.

[tikay]

At the risk of being a Connie Contrarian, is there merit in considering laying Ronnie in the final?

Everyone will be betting on him, so the price is unlikely to be on the generous side of correct.

He is also, as the Commentator Bingo proves, his own worst enemy. If he plays at his best, he wins any final against anyone, so that is irrelevant.

But he turns up some days and the other bloke knocks a couple in, he drops his head and doesn't fancy it.

Just curious, really. I pretty much always want him to win.

I actually think some of the Pros here may agree with that.

EVERYTHING has a fair price. Ronnie is nailed on, but whether his price is "value" is another kettle of saucepans altogether.

Lets see if they comment.

[TightEnd]

At the risk of being a Connie Contrarian, is there merit in considering laying Ronnie in the final?

Everyone will be betting on him, so the price is unlikely to be on the generous side of correct.

He is also, as the Commentator Bingo proves, his own worst enemy. If he plays at his best, he wins any final against anyone, so that is irrelevant.

But he turns up some days and the other bloke knocks a couple in, he drops his head and doesn't fancy it.

Just curious, really. I pretty much always want him to win.

I don't think he could lose the final if he turned up and played with the wrong end of the cue against either of these 2!

Want to look at prices for Ronnie to win 18-4 to 18-8, in that range,maybe perm a few into a composite price if they suit


Can't see Hawkins (assuming Walden finalises his "I hate the thread" choke) within 10 frames of Ronnie even if Ronnie blows up at various stages

[tikay]

This is like watching Greg Norman when he caved in against Nick Faldo at Augusta.

Only difference is Walden seems like a decent bloke.

Horrible but compulsive viewing.

It actually hurts to see the pain he is suffering. All the worse that he had the semi sewn up.

[tikay]

Done a fair bit of thinking about the The Kentucky Derby today

11.34pm uk time at Churchill downs

Quick background on the race here if needed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_derby

The important news in the last hour is that the track is now classed as sloppy after heavy rain.

The proportion of the field here have never faced a wet track let alone a sloppy one.

My original fancy on a standard dirt track was JAVA'S WAR (20-1 ladbrokes) all of its career runs have suggested a test on a dirt track will be ideal. Despite this the horse has run lots of consistent races including winning a grade 1 on polytrack last time. His best dirt run was when chasing verrazano at tampa in a grade 2 infact he very nearly got to the winner and looked much the stronger stayer. One is 5-1/6-1 my fancy is 16-1/20-1. Having never faced an off track i am slightly less confident than previously but run style suggests should thrive on the likely scrap.

With the rain and wet track i have also backed FRAC DADDY (49-1 betdaq), faced a sloppy track on debut at belmont so has the experience of it ran second and acted fine on the surface.
Being one of only two horses to have faced this he should not be 40-1+ on a dry track he almost certainly would not be quick or classy enough but the change gives him an outsiders chance here.
All of its recent runs suggest in time will need even further than this, lets hope for a bloodbath upfront early.

Goes without saying there are any host of dangers and something that has never faced a wet track may improve 5 lengths for it.

Suggest £10 win JAVA'S WAR at 20-1 win only ladbrokes

Suggest £6 win FRAC DADDY at 49-1 (or best price available) betdaq.

I will post an online link for the race as it is not on atr or ruk this year nearer the off time.

Thanks horsey. Was hard work getting those two on, never realised how many Meets there would be on in the USA in a single day, & the bookies sites are a nightmare to navigate.

Anyway, all aboard. If you get a moment, stick that link up later, please.

£10 @ 20/1, Ladbrokes, Javas War, Kentucky Derby

£6 @ 40/1, Wm Hill, Frac Daddy, Kentucky Derby

ON

Javas War
 
23:24
Singles - Race Winner 1 line @ £10.0 per line.Total Stake £10.00Potential Return £210.00 Receipt No: O/142640973/0000331

____

04 May 2013 - Kentucky Derby - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Frac Daddy @ 40/1

Stake : £6.00
Estimated Returns : £246.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000410/F

[tikay]

Mayweather by UD @10/11 Lads (final judgement)

We get our annual masterclass from Mayweather tonight.  He is up against Robert Guerrero who jumped up two weight classes in the hope of getting a shot against Mayweather.  He has clocked up two decent wins at Welterweight so just about deserves his shot.  He is a southpaw with decent skills who likes to fight on the outside, who can tough it out and fight dirty if required.  He has also shown a decent chin.  Mayweather isn't a massive puncher and I think Guerrero has enough know how and ability to hear the final bell.  I expect something like 118-110 to Mayweather.  Recommend £55.

Great stuff Bazza, very hopeful with this.


£55 @ 10/11, Ladbrokes, Mayweather by Unanimous Decision.

ON


Floyd Mayweather Jr - Unanimous Decision
 
Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Robert Guerrero
Singles - Final Judgement 1 line @ £55.0 per line.Total Stake £55.00Potential Return £105.00 Receipt No: O/142640973/0000332

[The Camel]

I officially curse this thread.

Back to retirement.

[tikay]

I officially curse this thread.

Back to retirement.

Behave, or we will threaten to start one of those daft petitions.

Don't forget our Brighton Banzai, too.........we still have the whole £300 @ 9/2.

[horseplayer]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4404296/Woodford-Reserve-Turf-Classic-Stakes-.html

hills are still laying the evens WISE DAN here


odds on everywhere now and some have gone as short as 1-2

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/americas/usa-churchill-downs/21:44/winner

no way this starts evens or better in the states

suggest £50 no time for reasoning be quick!

[rfgqqabc]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4404296/Woodford-Reserve-Turf-Classic-Stakes-.html

hills are still laying the evens WISE DAN here


odds on everywhere now and some have gone as short as 1-2

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/americas/usa-churchill-downs/21:44/winner

no way this starts evens or better in the states

suggest £50 no time for reasoning be quick!

Looks bigger than 50?
If you need a touch on Horsey give me a pm