Done a fair bit of thinking about the The Kentucky Derby today
11.34pm uk time at Churchill downs
Quick background on the race here if needed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_derbyThe important news in the last hour is that the track is now classed as sloppy after heavy rain.
The proportion of the field here have never faced a wet track let alone a sloppy one.
My original fancy on a standard dirt track was JAVA'S WAR (20-1 ladbrokes) all of its career runs have suggested a test on a dirt track will be ideal. Despite this the horse has run lots of consistent races including winning a grade 1 on polytrack last time. His best dirt run was when chasing verrazano at tampa in a grade 2 infact he very nearly got to the winner and looked much the stronger stayer. One is 5-1/6-1 my fancy is 16-1/20-1. Having never faced an off track i am slightly less confident than previously but run style suggests should thrive on the likely scrap.
With the rain and wet track i have also backed FRAC DADDY (49-1 betdaq), faced a sloppy track on debut at belmont so has the experience of it ran second and acted fine on the surface.
Being one of only two horses to have faced this he should not be 40-1+ on a dry track he almost certainly would not be quick or classy enough but the change gives him an outsiders chance here.
All of its recent runs suggest in time will need even further than this, lets hope for a bloodbath upfront early.
Goes without saying there are any host of dangers and something that has never faced a wet track may improve 5 lengths for it.
Suggest £10 win JAVA'S WAR at 20-1 win only ladbrokes
Suggest £6 win FRAC DADDY at 49-1 (or best price available) betdaq.
I will post an online link for the race as it is not on atr or ruk this year nearer the off time.
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