Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Not happy with "O'Fwar". Sub-standard effort on my part.

Apologies, Fred.

[tikay]

Not happy with "O'Fwar". Sub-standard effort on my part.

Apologies, Fred.

I thought it was rather good with the exception of the E word which is prohibited here.

When is the E thing, anyway?

[Tal]

Not happy with "O'Fwar". Sub-standard effort on my part.

Apologies, Fred.

I thought it was rather good with the exception of the E word which is prohibited here.

When is the E thing, anyway?

My guess - GUESS - would be tomorrow night

[Doobs]

Tikay

Crank up the mobile and direct to William Hills

Back the following for £25

Newbury
14.05 Harris Tweed 5/2
15.15 Hillstar 5/4
15.50 Declaration of War 5/2 in the morning if you can get it.

Newmarket
15.30 Dundonnell at 15/8

I think Declaration of War is too short, but I am trying not to be to outsmart myself here.  There would be no harm in laying it too for chompy (Note I won't be doing this because I have backed Farhh in the same race).

Do not use the free bet for this and use a separate bet slip for each bet.

[Tal]

Are these all enhanced prices, Doobs?

[Doobs]

Are these all enhanced prices, Doobs?

No, only Declaration of War is.  With the others you get a £25 free bet if your horse finishes 2nd.  So if you use the free bet wisely, the prices are close to

Harris Tweed 7/2
Hillstar 9/4
Declaration of War 7/2
Dundonnell at 23/8

I had an urge to tip up Farhh in the Lockinge (Hills are best at 9/2), but my head says you have to go with the enhanced price on Declaration of War. 

[Tal]

Thanks, Doobs.

Sometimes, when Fred starts chatting horses, I know what's going on.

This was a different time.

But not anymore.

[Doobs]

Thanks, Doobs.

Sometimes, when Fred starts chatting horses, I know what's going on.

This was a different time.

But not anymore.

I am going to introduce some heroic assumptions.

Take Harris Tweed.  We know he is 5/2 to win.  If we assume he is also around 5/2 to finish 2nd. 

Chance of 1st = chance of 2nd = .285

If we bet £25 we have .285 chance of winning £87.50 and .285 of winning £25.  So total EV is expected to be .285 x (87.50 + 25) = £32.14

That is roughly the same as we'd get if we were getting 7/2 on our 5/2 chance (.285 x £112.5)

In the end we won't get this much in the long run because
1) even if we use our free bet very wisely, we aren't going to make it worth much more than £23
2) The chance of the horse coming 2nd is going to be a bit less than the chance of it coming first (especially Dundonnell)
3) Hills prices aren't best prices, though they should be close enough with the best price guarantee.   

I am fairly confident these bets are profitable though.

[Chompy]

Declaration Of War can currently be laid at 3.35.

To explain, what you'd be looking to do is lay £200 @ 3.35. Then wait for it to drift to, say, around 4, and have £150 (back) on it at that price. That way everything else wins you £50 and DOW loses you £70.

Obv if he shortens up you're gonna lose a few quid but that's the gamble. Maybe just watch this one, see what would have happened, and then try one in the near future.

If he was going to mega-kontiki he'd be sliding by now and, in this case, you'd probably need to be laying £500+ to make it worthwhile. I'd still be surprised if he doesn't drift though, especially once the Hills £50 @ 5/2 backers try to lay it back at 3.45 to pay for a bag of crisps and can of special brew.

That make sense?

[Doobs]

BILLY hILLS

There’s another feast of top quality racing on Channel 4 tomorrow with the highlight coming in the 3.50 Newbury, the JLT Lockinge Stakes. The Group One race was home to one of Frankel’s most scintillating performances in 2012 meaning this year’s winner has some big shoes to fill.

Declaration Of War, who looked impressive last time out when landing the Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown, is a prime candidate to fill those shoes and from 8.30am we are going…
5/2 Declaration Of War in the 3:50 Newbury, the JLT Lockinge Stakes.

Plus, place your racing bet using your mobile and we’ll give you money back as a free bet on every single Channel 4 TV race if your horse finishes second.

The offer applies to bets placed on the mobile site using your mobile phone or tablet. Free bets will be credited to your account by 12:00pm on Sunday 19th May. Terms and conditions apply.

Bump.  Has gone 5/2 now, which is best price and beats Betfair by a small margin.  Free bet is up to £25.

[tikay]

Thanks, Doobs.

Sometimes, when Fred starts chatting horses, I know what's going on.

This was a different time.

But not anymore.

I am going to introduce some heroic assumptions.

Take Harris Tweed.  We know he is 5/2 to win.  If we assume he is also around 5/2 to finish 2nd. 

Chance of 1st = chance of 2nd = .285

If we bet £25 we have .285 chance of winning £87.50 and .285 of winning £25.  So total EV is expected to be .285 x (87.50 + 25) = £32.14

That is roughly the same as we'd get if we were getting 7/2 on our 5/2 chance (.285 x £112.5)

In the end we won't get this much in the long run because
1) even if we use our free bet very wisely, we aren't going to make it worth much more than £23
2) The chance of the horse coming 2nd is going to be a bit less than the chance of it coming first (especially Dundonnell)
3) Hills prices aren't best prices, though they should be close enough with the best price guarantee.   

I am fairly confident these bets are profitable though.

You must have read my mind - I was about to ask you to explain those maths.

Thanks.

[tikay]

Declaration Of War can currently be laid at 3.35.

To explain, what you'd be looking to do is lay £200 @ 3.35. Then wait for it to drift to, say, around 4, and have £150 (back) on it at that price. That way everything else wins you £50 and DOW loses you £70.

Obv if he shortens up you're gonna lose a few quid but that's the gamble. Maybe just watch this one, see what would have happened, and then try one in the near future.

If he was going to mega-kontiki he'd be sliding by now and, in this case, you'd probably need to be laying £500+ to make it worthwhile. I'd still be surprised if he doesn't drift though, especially once the Hills £50 @ 5/2 backers try to lay it back at 3.45 to pay for a bag of crisps and can of special brew.

That make sense?

After I read it 903 times, yes, well almost.

Just one question, same as before...

By "lay £200 @ 3.35", you mean for a liability of £470, yes?

[doubleup]

Declaration Of War can currently be laid at 3.35.

To explain, what you'd be looking to do is lay £200 @ 3.35. Then wait for it to drift to, say, around 4, and have £150 (back) on it at that price. That way everything else wins you £50 and DOW loses you £70.

Obv if he shortens up you're gonna lose a few quid but that's the gamble. Maybe just watch this one, see what would have happened, and then try one in the near future.

If he was going to mega-kontiki he'd be sliding by now and, in this case, you'd probably need to be laying £500+ to make it worthwhile. I'd still be surprised if he doesn't drift though, especially once the Hills £50 @ 5/2 backers try to lay it back at 3.45 to pay for a bag of crisps and can of special brew.

That make sense?

After I read it 903 times, yes, well almost.

Just one question, same as before...

By "lay £200 @ 3.35", you mean for a liability of £470, yes?

If you put a lay of £200 in betfair the liability is £200  oops my bad it is on the software I use - but on the betfair interface it would be a liability of £470.

btw if you have a WH free bet you could do worse than put it on modern tutor newbury 2.40 at 13/2.  Obv a trcky race but the stable is in great form and the horse is hooded for the first time which has been a profitable stat.

[tikay]

Tikay

Crank up the mobile and direct to William Hills

Back the following for £25

Newbury
14.05 Harris Tweed 5/2
15.15 Hillstar 5/4
15.50 Declaration of War 5/2 in the morning if you can get it.

Newmarket
15.30 Dundonnell at 15/8

I think Declaration of War is too short, but I am trying not to be to outsmart myself here.  There would be no harm in laying it too for chompy (Note I won't be doing this because I have backed Farhh in the same race).

Do not use the free bet for this and use a separate bet slip for each bet.

Thanks Doobs, & well done yesterday. We were a nadge away from 3 out of 4, even so, the two winners gave us a nice profit overall, & we still have the £25 Free Bet up our sleeve. Great stuff.

So, we have loaded up again, exactly as above, as follows.....

All 4 bets were placed by Mobile, with Wm Hill, for £25 each, & all carry the "Money Back as a Free Bet if we finish 2nd".

2.05 Newbury, Harris Tweed @ 5/2

3.15 Newbury, Hillstar @ 5/4

3.50 Newbury, Declaration of War @ 5/2

3.30 Newmarket, Dundonnell @ 15/8

ON


18 May 13 / 08:53  Stake  3:30 Newmarket – Dundonnell @ Guaranteed Price (15/8)  - £25.00 O/0457483/0000426/F
18 May 13 / 08:52  Stake  3:50 Newbury – Declaration Of War @ Guaranteed Price (5/2)  - £25.00 O/0457483/0000425/F
18 May 13 / 08:52  Stake  3:15 Newbury – Hillstar @ Guaranteed Price (5/4)  - £25.00 O/0457483/0000424/F
18 May 13 / 08:52  Stake  2:05 Newbury – Harris Tweed @ Guaranteed Price (5/2)  - £25.00 O/0457483/0000423/F

[tikay]

Declaration Of War can currently be laid at 3.35.

To explain, what you'd be looking to do is lay £200 @ 3.35. Then wait for it to drift to, say, around 4, and have £150 (back) on it at that price. That way everything else wins you £50 and DOW loses you £70.

Obv if he shortens up you're gonna lose a few quid but that's the gamble. Maybe just watch this one, see what would have happened, and then try one in the near future.

If he was going to mega-kontiki he'd be sliding by now and, in this case, you'd probably need to be laying £500+ to make it worthwhile. I'd still be surprised if he doesn't drift though, especially once the Hills £50 @ 5/2 backers try to lay it back at 3.45 to pay for a bag of crisps and can of special brew.

That make sense?

After I read it 903 times, yes, well almost.

Just one question, same as before...

By "lay £200 @ 3.35", you mean for a liability of £470, yes?

If you put a lay of £200 in betfair the liability is £200  oops my bad it is on the software I use - but on the betfair interface it would be a liability of £470.
btw if you have a WH free bet you could do worse than put it on modern tutor newbury 2.40 at 13/2.  Obv a trcky race but the stable is in great form and the horse is hooded for the first time which has been a profitable stat.

Yes, exactly that, thanks. The terminology confuses me........

I'm up to speed now.