Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The price on Betfair has moved to around 15/8 in a very thin market. Like I said, I would have no problem with backing Jaidee if this bet is approached in the same way as any other on the thread (Is it a pricing error? Do we have specialist knowledge in this sport? Have we got fresh information that the market has not? Have we reacted better to the fresh information than the market? Is the market heavily skewed due to non-golf factors). I just don't think that is what is happening here.

 Would you still back the other fella at evs just because you can say you had a winner?

 If you are going to hedge every bet at whatever price is offered when you back something in a semi-long-term market should you have less bets? (you'll need to gain a bigger edge on the original bet to make up for the equity you plan to piss-away so you will have to abandon all bets that offer just a shade of value).

 I understand some people are less in favour of risk than others but having more -ev bets is not the way around this.

 (I am not saying this guy is a bad bet. I couldn't pick him out in a line-up and as an unfashionable player it probably is value anyway).

 Anyway, none of this is helping me. I was planning to kill myself by 11.30am and I'm all behind.

I do wish we could refrain from using that expression "pissing away".

The more senior Fred regulars already worry enough about leaks.

[tikay]

Ha. So busy discussing the rights and wrongs of savers that I forgot to place the bet, and they have started now.

Neil's cunning plan to save me from myself worked.

[Tal]

Brilliant.

Like an Acme diversion kit

[doubleup]

The price on Betfair has moved to around 15/8 in a very thin market. Like I said, I would have no problem with backing Jaidee if this bet is approached in the same way as any other on the thread (Is it a pricing error? Do we have specialist knowledge in this sport? Have we got fresh information that the market has not? Have we reacted better to the fresh information than the market? Is the market heavily skewed due to non-golf factors). I just don't think that is what is happening here.

 Would you still back the other fella at evs just because you can say you had a winner?

 If you are going to hedge every bet at whatever price is offered when you back something in a semi-long-term market should you have less bets? (you'll need to gain a bigger edge on the original bet to make up for the equity you plan to piss-away so you will have to abandon all bets that offer just a shade of value).

 I understand some people are less in favour of risk than others but having more -ev bets is not the way around this.

 (I am not saying this guy is a bad bet. I couldn't pick him out in a line-up and as an unfashionable player it probably is value anyway).

 Anyway, none of this is helping me. I was planning to kill myself by 11.30am and I'm all behind.

I do wish we could refrain from using that expression "pissing away".

The more senior Fred regulars already worry enough about leaks.

I think that backing on a sportsbook and laying on betfair is almost always going to be a huge mistake because of commision.  I can't see anything but disaster coming of this strategy.

If the initial bet was on betfair and the market is liquid, hedging is fair enough.  The very small amount given up is compensated by bankroll protection.
 

 

[Tal]

Am I right in saying if you back and lay on betfair, you pay two lots of commission?

[Tal]

Arsenal unchanged from the Wigan game, as Arteta is fit to start.

Harper starts in goal, as expected

[tikay]

The price on Betfair has moved to around 15/8 in a very thin market. Like I said, I would have no problem with backing Jaidee if this bet is approached in the same way as any other on the thread (Is it a pricing error? Do we have specialist knowledge in this sport? Have we got fresh information that the market has not? Have we reacted better to the fresh information than the market? Is the market heavily skewed due to non-golf factors). I just don't think that is what is happening here.

 Would you still back the other fella at evs just because you can say you had a winner?

 If you are going to hedge every bet at whatever price is offered when you back something in a semi-long-term market should you have less bets? (you'll need to gain a bigger edge on the original bet to make up for the equity you plan to piss-away so you will have to abandon all bets that offer just a shade of value).

 I understand some people are less in favour of risk than others but having more -ev bets is not the way around this.

 (I am not saying this guy is a bad bet. I couldn't pick him out in a line-up and as an unfashionable player it probably is value anyway).

 Anyway, none of this is helping me. I was planning to kill myself by 11.30am and I'm all behind.

I do wish we could refrain from using that expression "pissing away".

The more senior Fred regulars already worry enough about leaks.

I think that backing on a sportsbook and laying on betfair is almost always going to be a huge mistake because of commision.  I can't see anything but disaster coming of this strategy.

If the initial bet was on betfair and the market is liquid, hedging is fair enough.  The very small amount given up is compensated by bankroll protection.
 

 

My bet was with a Sportsbook, and I would have placed the saver bet (to cover my two stakes) the same way.

Luckily, as I awake from my Sunday afternoon nap, I find McDowell on the very cusp of victory. What a lovely way to wake up!

Now, just need Chesea to lose, and Arsenal to win, and everything will be ticking-boo in Fred's garden.

[Doobs]

I have got a home for two of those free bets.

I don't think it is that easy, because this week seems a bad betting one.  To use three £25 free bets with Hills and we need a bet that is a decent price; where Hills is best price; and that outcome is reasonable value.  It isn't that easy to find bets that fulfil all 3 criteria, but I have had a go.

I have done a bit of scouring of the ante post horse racing markets to see if I could get some Hills value.  I think betting ante post must be fine as we have placed the bet before expiry.  I have done the same bets on my own account, and the free bets were accepted.

First home is here:


Orfevre isn't even officially the best horse in Japan, there were two ahead of him in their horse of the year.  

The horse is clearly a bit of a nutter, but equally clearly he was an unlucky loser of last year's Arc.  Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey, which are probably going to farm the best middle distance races in Ireland and here, both finished well beaten in the Arc last year.  Gentildonna, who is the equal of Orfevre in Japan, was beaten by St Nicholas Abbey in Dubai, so seems less likely to make the trip.

So I think we can conclude that Orfevre is currently the best of the older horses likely to be aimed at the race.  I don't know if is great value for a race 4 months away, but it is best price and beats Betfair (weak market).

So first free £25 bet is on Orfevre to win the Arc at 6/1 here:

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4412154/ap/6th-Oct-2013---Qatar-Prix-De-L-Arc-De-Triomphe.html

You need to put £25 in the top box as well as selecting the free bet.

On to number two.

Andre Fabre 3 year old colts have got a very strong record in the Arc too (winning in 1997, 1998, 2005, 2006 and back in 1987).  His current favourite 3 year old middle distance horse is Ocovango.  He is expected to run on in the Derby and not the French equivalent which is probably a better distance on his breeding.  I assume this is because Fabre really rates him.   He also fits the profile of Fabre's Arc winners (lightly raced/unraced at two).  

I seriously thought about putting him up for the Derby, where Hills are best of the Bookies.   But he is significantly bigger on betfair (10/1 vs 8/1) and I think this reflects worries about the ground.  The long range weather forecast doesn't have significant rain for the next week, and Ocovango is likely to prefer it a bit soft (he is by Monsun and has never raced on firmer than good to soft.  He is much more likely to get his ground in October when the Arc is run.

For the Arc he is best 25/1 with Hills (beats Betfair in a week market) and likely racing on softish ground, for the Derby he is 8/1 and likely racing on firmish ground.

We could do both bets, but for now I recommend the 2nd free bet goes on Ocovango at 25/1 antepost for the Arc.  

I realise that it is in the same race, but I think these are the best two in the Hills ante post betting markets.

I am thinking Ocovango in the Derby could be a good home for the third bet, but think we should leave it until later in the week and see if any significant rain is forecast at that time.

[tikay]

Excellent, thanks Doobs.

We shall get on board shortly.

EDIT -We got on safely, "Free Bets Redeemed" style.

Details to follow.

[tikay]

God bless the Milkman - McDowell wins.

Thanks hector.

[hector62]

Coming from behind to win 2 & 1 was a bit too stressful for my liking. But a win is always nice and it is good that a Northern Irishman makes up for the appalling Irish voting that cost us last night.

[tikay]

Although not as good as the Jacquelin v Jimenez match bet from a few weeks ago, I think there is a decent match bet opportunity in the Madeira Island Open Golf tournament commencing tomorrow morning. Rikard Karlberg has stated on his blog(http://rikardgolf.com/) that he is playing with an injured left shoulder, he only hit some balls yesterday after not being able to since last Wednesday. He mentioned he struggled to control the height of his shots, and considering this is due to be a windy tournament, not being able to fully turn through shots is likely to lead to a poor performance.

Ladbrokes have placed him in a match bet with Craig Lee @ 10/11, Craig Lee is no superstar but has a top 10 this year and a couple of top 20s in much better class events. He is a fairly consistent golfer, who should be used to playing in the wind. His past form here isnt great, but at least hes played this course the last two years, whereas Karlberg hasnt played it since 2007(when he shot +11) . They are both due to play in the afternoon, so they should face the same weather.

I think this is probably worth £55 @ 10/11 Craig Lee to beat Rikard Karlberg with Ladbrokes.

I have doubled this up with McDowell to beat Chris Wood in his match in the group stage of the matchplay, Ladbrokes are joint best at 4/5 and although traditionally a lottery(and I dont normally get involved), I think there are plenty of reasons to think this is a decent price.
1/ Wood hasnt played competitively for 8 weeks after a niggly injury,...he thinks his game is in solid shape, but he has to be rusty.
2/ Wood had a nightmare 16 hour journey to get to Bulgaria from Bristol! http://chriswoodgolf.net/golf-players-blog-detail/id/502.html He had only played 3 holes at the time of writing.
3/ McDowell travelled by private jet from the players championship, is an excellent match player, and has stated his "game is in very good shape" as shown by his win a cpl of weeks ago. The course is nicknamed the pebble beach of Europe, and pebble beach was where McDowell won his major.

I will leave it the thread to decide whether to include the 2nd selection with the first.

A fantastic double for Fellaini.

Lee won the 72 hole match bet by no less than 13 strokes.

I think all our golf bets won this week - 3 from 3.

[Chompy]

Got another very interesting one with Sid James ante-post for the St Ledger. Perhaps Fred can use a Fred member with a Sid account?

"Telescope bypasses Dante
10th May 2013

Telescope, who suffered a minor infection and missed the Betfred Dante Stakes at York last week, will attempt to get his Investec Derby bid back on track when Britain’s leading hope for the Classic gallops at Newmarket on Sunday.  The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt, who is a best-priced 8-1 for the Derby, has not been seen since winning a mile maiden in September having been forced to miss the Classic trial after he grazed his legs in a horsebox.  Sir Michael has been pleased with the horse at home since and if he comes through his gallop on Sunday it is likely that he will be sent for a racecourse gallop in the next week."

He's just had that gallop and was apparently very impressive. He's now being tightened up for the Derby, at around 6/1.

This is another price that doesn't make sense. He's 6/1 for the Derby, despite a crappy preparation, but is 14/1 for the Leger. His pedigree is pure stamina.

Recommend £20 @ 14/1 for the Leger

[tikay]

Got another very interesting one with Sid James ante-post for the St Ledger. Perhaps Fred can use a Fred member with a Sid account?

"Telescope bypasses Dante
10th May 2013

Telescope, who suffered a minor infection and missed the Betfred Dante Stakes at York last week, will attempt to get his Investec Derby bid back on track when Britain’s leading hope for the Classic gallops at Newmarket on Sunday.  The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt, who is a best-priced 8-1 for the Derby, has not been seen since winning a mile maiden in September having been forced to miss the Classic trial after he grazed his legs in a horsebox.  Sir Michael has been pleased with the horse at home since and if he comes through his gallop on Sunday it is likely that he will be sent for a racecourse gallop in the next week."

He's just had that gallop and was apparently very impressive. He's now being tightened up for the Derby, at around 6/1.

This is another price that doesn't make sense. He's 6/1 for the Derby, despite a crappy preparation, but is 14/1 for the Leger. His pedigree is pure stamina.

Recommend £20 @ 14/1 for the Leger

Thanks Mr W.

If I can find a way of getting on, we will do so.


PS - owe you two PM replies, will do both tomorrow morning, am a bit behind with PM's at the mo, but the answer will, as always, be "yes please".  Even a stopped clock and all that......

[hector62]

As expected the rugby league is nip and tuck:   Hull KR  16  Wakefield   18  H/T