It's the
Monaco Grand Prix this weekend, and I have previously written on here about the possibility that on a non-overtaking track that the Mercedes, who are the quickest over a single lap but whose tyres go off in the race, might be able to hold on and win at an attractive price
From a strategy point of view the Monaco Grand Prix is a very tricky race as cars can lose a lot of time running in slow traffic and there is a very high (80%) chance of a safety car, there have been 14 safety cars in the last ten years in eight of the races.
Although Monaco is a unique proposition, a narrow street track on which it is almost impossible to overtake, there is potentially a game to be played this year on race strategy.
Traditionally a one stop race, there is scope for teams like Lotus and Ferrari that are kinder on their tyres than rivals, to pit early and attempt the undercut knowing that their rivals will not be able to react and bring their car in because it will not make it to the finish from there on a single set of tyres.
With the likelihood that Mercedes will take pole and the front row in Monaco in qualifying, this is a very real possibility as a tactical play for Lotus and Ferrari and a possible betting opportunity
Cars that go well in Monaco have plenty of low speed downforce and traction, for good corner exit performance. The Mercedes was the fastest car in the slow Sector 3 in Barcelona, which is usually a good indicator of pace for Monaco. It has also had pole position at the last three Grands Prix, but has then faded each time in the race as it overheats its tyres. This is less of a problem at Monaco as the track puts less energy into the tyres, so Mercedes may well be able to hold on and win this race.
This race sees the second appearance of the supersoft tyre, which was used in Melbourne. The teams have done little running or testing on it this year. In Melbourne it lasted only nine or ten laps, but with the shorter lap in Monaco and less energy going into the tyre, it should go further.
However, to make a one stop strategy work you will need to do more than 50 laps on a set of soft tyres. Based on what we saw in China, where the soft was good for only six or seven laps, this will be a struggle.
To pull off a one stop strategy the cars that qualify on supersofts will need to get to at last lap 27. This may prove too much for many runners, who are likely to be forced into a two stop strategy.
This creates a great opportunity for a car, like the Lotus, that may not qualify at the front, but can potentially do the race on one stop only. It is more likely that the race will be like the 2011 edition which saw a mixture of one, two and even three stop strategies.
So, turning to the race winner market
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/winnerI believe we can create a two way play here
The Mercedes certainly has a chance of holding on here, for all the reasons outlined above
Rosberg is available at 8-1, is easier on his tyres than Hamilton and, on a tight track, likely to be a safer bet than Hamilton who is too aggressive/always likely to get into trouble at Monaco
Raikkonen gives us the other strategy, the undercut, try to do one stop. He is available at 7-1
Both represent far better value than the Red Bull and Ferrari based solely on price for this race. The Red Bulls will come into their own when tyre specs revert for the next race
Recommendations£5 e/w (1/5 1,2,3) on Rosberg 8-1, Raikkonen 7-1
Low stakes because
- Its F1
- Its Monaco
- Safety cars, accidents etc can spoil any race at Monaco
The aim here is to have a foot in each camp. The one lap speed of Mercedes at the front, and the potential strategy advantage of the Renault through the race and having to do only one stop.....
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