Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

No real reason for the image, except I know Tikay loves a good picture.

Anyway, it's UFC 160 this weekend but I have to get a bet in place early as the price won't last IMO.

The main event is a battle for the heavyweight title but in the co-main event it is two heavyweights looking to get a crack at the title and it is there that I have picked out a bet. Junior Dos Santos is the former champion having lost his title last time out to Velasquez and on Saturday he takes on Mark Hunt.

The recommended bet is for Dos Santos to win in the first round at 11/5 with Paddy Power, was 23/10 before I went out two hours ago so has already seen a touch of support. Paddy Power are the only place with the round betting up at the moment but I feel they are going to be best price as they are best price Dos Santos in the outright market (2/7) and they do tend to be best price on a lot of UFC stuff.

Hunt has been impressive in racking up 4 wins a row but this is a big step up in competition against JDS who is amongst the best pure boxers in the UFC. Prior to his winning streak, Hunt had lost 6 straight, all in the first round. Only one of those was by TKO/KO (JDS's preferred win method) but JDS is a black belt in BJJ so can't entirely rule out submission. I don't think this fight is hitting the mat though, well Hunt might when JDS knocks him out. JDS has 11 of 15 career wins in the first round, against some good opposition. He is the only person to stop Werdum for example and KO'd Velasquez in the opening round in their first fight.

The added bonus is that Hunt has had huge visa issues and only just got in America when he was actually meant to get there two weeks ago. He has been moaning about wanting to get there to adjust/acclimatise on Twitter so his preparation hasn't been ideal.

Suggest £25 on Junior Dos Santos to win in the 1st round at UFC 160 vs. Mark Hunt @ 11/5 Paddy Power.

Thanks Scott.

Sadly, PP maxed us at £5, but we took it anyway.

Details to follow.....

ON

CONFIRMATION

We have £5 @ 11/5, Paddy Power, Junior dos SAntos to win in Round 1.

We also have a further £20, same bet, via Marky, so £25 @ 11/5 in total.

ON

21/05/2013

Single To Win

Junior dos Santos To Win in Round 1 @ 11/5
Round Betting
Junior dos Santos v Mark Hunt

Pending

£5.00

[tikay]

No real reason for the image, except I know Tikay loves a good picture.

Anyway, it's UFC 160 this weekend but I have to get a bet in place early as the price won't last IMO.

The main event is a battle for the heavyweight title but in the co-main event it is two heavyweights looking to get a crack at the title and it is there that I have picked out a bet. Junior Dos Santos is the former champion having lost his title last time out to Velasquez and on Saturday he takes on Mark Hunt.

The recommended bet is for Dos Santos to win in the first round at 11/5 with Paddy Power, was 23/10 before I went out two hours ago so has already seen a touch of support. Paddy Power are the only place with the round betting up at the moment but I feel they are going to be best price as they are best price Dos Santos in the outright market (2/7) and they do tend to be best price on a lot of UFC stuff.

Hunt has been impressive in racking up 4 wins a row but this is a big step up in competition against JDS who is amongst the best pure boxers in the UFC. Prior to his winning streak, Hunt had lost 6 straight, all in the first round. Only one of those was by TKO/KO (JDS's preferred win method) but JDS is a black belt in BJJ so can't entirely rule out submission. I don't think this fight is hitting the mat though, well Hunt might when JDS knocks him out. JDS has 11 of 15 career wins in the first round, against some good opposition. He is the only person to stop Werdum for example and KO'd Velasquez in the opening round in their first fight.

The added bonus is that Hunt has had huge visa issues and only just got in America when he was actually meant to get there two weeks ago. He has been moaning about wanting to get there to adjust/acclimatise on Twitter so his preparation hasn't been ideal.

Suggest £25 on Junior Dos Santos to win in the 1st round at UFC 160 vs. Mark Hunt @ 11/5 Paddy Power.

Thanks Scott.

Sadly, PP maxed us at £5, but we took it anyway.

Details to follow.....

ON

Yuck, £5??? Are you restricted with them generally? Or have our previous MMA bets been with them?

Maybe when it is priced up elsewhere we can get something close.

Sadly, I've been Restricted with PP for over a year now. Sometimes they allow me a decent bet, but for the most part, they restrict me to pennies. It was due to a dirty EW horse race, not MMA.

I've actually just withdrawn - or tried to - most of my cash from there, which has been - is - a perfect nightmare to arrange. Eventually they agreed to send me a cheque, because my previous Debit Card has been replaced. A cheque, ffs. This is 2013.  Now I have to re-deposit. They insisted I had to withdraw down to less than £50 before they would send the cheque, so I've been sent a cheque, & now I have to deposit there again. Bleurgh, time, time, time.

[tikay]

Next round of the FIDE Chess Grand Prix (the qualifier for the next Candidates tournament) starts tomorrow in Thessal  Thesall  Greece:

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/

Of interest to me is Ponomariov v Caruana.

Unfashionable player in Ponomoariov (never made the big time, despite winning the FIDE World title - essentially like being the WBA world boxing champ) versus well known and talented player who has taken on the big boys and held his own.

But...Ponomariov has a good record against Caruana, including outplaying him beautifully last time out just a month ago.

Both players are 5.8, with the draw a heavy and justifiable favourite at 1.4. Ponomariov is White, the equivalent of home advantage in a sporting context.

I think he should be shorter in price than Caruana, such that there should be at least a point between them.

Sklansky wallet at the ready...

Recommend £10 on Ruslan Ponomariov to beat Fabiano Caruana with marathonbet at 5.8.

Yes, we are on!

Thanks Simon.

Bit of a nightmare depositing with these folks, but I got there eventually.

We have £10 @ 24/5, MarathonBet, Ruslan Ponomariov to beat Fabiano Caruana.

ON


#2
Bet Source: Web

Single @ £10.00 (£10.00)
Total Price: 24/5
12:00 Chess / FIDE Grand Prix / Thessaloniki / Men / Round 1 / Ponomariov, Ruslan vs Caruana, Fabiano / Result - Ponomariov, Ruslan @ 24/5

[ripple11]

Today we have Hants V Lancs live on Sky in a YB40  day night match.

I'm interested in the total sixes market

 The weather is set fair.

Hants have a strong in-form batting line up.They go hard from the top. With Dimi back from IPL and Wheater at 8, it means the top 8 are well able of clearing the ropes. Lancs should have Katich back, and are a quality side.
Not much of the YB40 season to go on so far at the Ageas Bowl, but in its last YB40 match, there were 12 sixes. (6 for each team, Hants batting second) I wasn't there, but interestingly the commentary said the boundaries were shorter than "normal", which I'm sure is to help the home team's batters, as well as provide more "entertainment".
Also new fielding restrictions this year mean only 4 fielders outside the circle, ...surely this will encourage batsman more to go over the top of the infield.
Hants are favourites, and like to chase......so the danger to the over sixes market is Hants bowl well, restrict Lancs to a below par score and then pace a steady innings with few sixes. However I think Lancs can post a decent score against the Hants bowling, should they bat first.

Any thoughts from Freds cricket followers?

 I see only 2 firms priced up sixes atm on oddschecker:  Sky and Hills +5.5  at 5/6. I recommend £40.

[tikay]

Today we have Hants V Lancs live on Sky in a YB40  day night match.

I'm interested in the total sixes market

 The weather is set fair.

Hants have a strong in-form batting line up.They go hard from the top. With Dimi back from IPL and Wheater at 8, it means the top 8 are well able of clearing the ropes. Lancs should have Katich back, and are a quality side.
Not much of the YB40 season to go on so far at the Ageas Bowl, but in its last YB40 match, there were 12 sixes. (6 for each team, Hants batting second) I wasn't there, but interestingly the commentary said the boundaries were shorter than "normal", which I'm sure is to help the home team's batters, as well as provide more "entertainment".
Also new fielding restrictions this year mean only 4 fielders outside the circle, ...surely this will encourage batsman more to go over the top of the infield.
Hants are favourites, and like to chase......so the danger to the over sixes market is Hants bowl well, restrict Lancs to a below par score and then pace a steady innings with few sixes. However I think Lancs can post a decent score against the Hants bowling, should they bat first.

Any thoughts from Freds cricket followers?

 I see only 2 firms priced up sixes atm on oddschecker:  Sky and Hills +5.5  at 5/6. I recommend £40.

Top work Nick, thank you, & I know you are big into cricket, so we have speculated.

I upped the stake slightly for ease of maths.

We have £52 @ 5/6, Wm Hill, OVER 5.5 sixes, Hampshire v Lancashire YB40 Day Night Thing.

ON

22 May 2013 - Hampshire v Lancashire - Total Match Sixes

Tip ItOver (5.5) @ 5/6

Stake : £42.00
Estimated Returns : £77.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000435/F

[BigAdz]

While Mr Channing is about.

Just noticed today that Secret Gesture is available to lay at circa 5/2.

I got on at 25s.

Being mindful of your comments yesterday, I need clarification.

I would never back this horse at 5/2, ie, I no longer think its value. I also can't see another horse that I consider A, the winner , or B, value.

Should I green out, or let it run it's course?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Apologies for the delay. I have been knee deep in poker rules. All part of the rich pageant of my life. Possibly

Profit on the Month £276.69

Outstanding bets £1350.50


One bet yesterday, one winner. Presburg at picturesque Brighton racecourse was recommended by the Non-Grumpy one at 10-1, started at 5-1 and hosed home for a £100 profit

Actually from memory Brighton races is half picturesque and half wends its way round tower blocks.

Mumbai lost in the IPL eliminator. In the battle of best batting side in the tournament - Chennai - and best bowling side - Mumbai - the match was played on a Motorway, and Chennai won the toss. 192 runs later Mumbai had bowled badly and the game was basically up

San Antonio went 2-0 up in the basketball. I note that the NBA draft is a lottery. The Cleveland Cavs won the first pick for the 3rd time in 11 years and I had better stop writing this sentence before I am compelled to research the mechanics of the NBA draft further.

Today, the Pure Silk Bahamas Classic gets underway and we all get to share Karabiner's weekly Ms Shin sweat. I see we also have a YB40 cricket bet, an MMA bet placed, the F1 this weekend and the all German Champions League Final to come

Things are hotting up for ther last trading week of the month....

[Bad Beat]

 I would lay the horse to green out in these circumstances:

 I make the price EXACTLY 5/2 and therefore I can free up money and reduce variance at no cost.

 I have staked way too much as a percentage of my bankroll and it may help me to go broke. I can green and save myself.

 I make the price of the horse more than 5/2 and believe it will probably drift, making this a good time to do the new bet (the lay).

 I haven't really given The Oaks as much thought as you guys so I can't give you an answer to that last one.

 If I thought about it and decided I made it 3/1 then I might green. If I thought about it and made it 7/2 then I would definitely green (I like to give myself a margin of error). If I thought about it and made it 5/1 then I would lay more than I need to to just be winning either way. I would lay to make it a loser.

 Mr Shallow showed again yesterday that he is much smarter than he looks though...Nearer to the event after a lot of variables have come and gone and with a lot more money traded you are less likely to find that you can green out without giving away value.

 The wisdom of crowds is why Betfair is often said to display the "correct" price.

 Prior to the trials less people were betting on the race and there were a lot more variables to assess. A smart guy like Tom Segal can come in fresh to one of those markets at that time, where a hard-pushed odds-compiler for Paddy Power or Betfred hasn't really lokked at the Oaks for a couple of weeks and hasn't noticed some unexposed filly from a smaller stable has been entered for a recognised trial. They can find something at 33/1 that should be 12/1.

 It is now very unlikely that this can happen. There are ten times as many eyes checking the event 24/7 and any price discrepancy should never last. With more money matched and all the trails done the only reason for a late move would be changing ground, injury or possible stable out of form.

 You might look now and say the form is overated and looking back on all the trials they got carried away and it should be 3/1 but if you tell me it should be 5/1 I would suggest that unless you have inside info you have simply got it wrong.

[Karabiner]

Speaking of Ms.Shin in action where is Bobby1?

I've not seen him on here for a couple of weeks, I hope he's okay.

[tikay]

Speaking of Ms.Shin in action where is Bobby1?

I've not seen him on here for a couple of weeks, I hope he's okay.

He is fine, Ralph, we communicate a lot by PM. Fred is SO addictive, & it was soaking up his time, like a sponge.

Hopefully, he'll be back soon. He is much missed, it goes without saying.

[Snowball]

When does this Ladies Golf tournament start?I notice she is now best price 14/1

[tikay]

When does this Ladies Golf tournament start?I notice she is now best price 14/1

I saw somewhere that it begins today, but as far as I am aware, it starts tomorrow.


http://www.lpga.com/golf/tournaments/lpga/pure-silk-bahamas-lpga-classic.aspx


The LPGA will make its first-ever official appearance in the Bahamas in 2013 with the Pure Silk-Bahamas LPGA Classic. The full-field, standard eligibility tournament will take place May 23-26 and will include four tournament rounds with 72 holes of stroke play, a $1.3 million purse and coverage on Golf Channel.

[horseplayer]

http://www.abola.pt/nnh/ver.aspx?id=403633

according to the above pereira has signed a pre contract with everton

best priced 5-1 seems to be a sea of blue on oddschecker this morning

[horseplayer]

bet suggestion

over 4 cards @ 33/20 with ladbrokes in the champions league final with ladbrokes

suggest £44

reasoning to follow tonight/later

[tikay]

bet suggestion

over 4 cards @ 33/20 with ladbrokes in the champions league final with ladbrokes

suggest £44

reasoning to follow tonight/later

Lovely, thanks.

Have amended the amount slightly, £44 made it awkward. Can't have more awkward, we already have Mere.

£40 @ 33/20, Ladbrokes, OVER 4 Cards, CL Final, Saturday

ON



Over 4 cards
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich

 Singles - Total Match Cards

1 line @ £40.0 per line
.
Total Stake £40.00

Potential Return £106.00

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000343