Tips for Tikay

[Teacake]

For card fans Willie Collum has the Scottish Cup Final today. I have no strong view on this other than he is an attention seeking idiot who could do almost anything as we have seen in CL games this season.

[Bad Beat]

I had to go to Samvo today to collect (thin).

 They had prices on the Grand Prix.

 They were 5/1 Vettel and 1/5th 1,2,3.

 I didn't have any on me or much to collect so I think the price is still there.

 Shops in Camden and Hammersmith.

[Tal]

Mercedes have admitted they ran a test of 1,000 miles after Barcelona. This is a big deal, as it means they have - it can and is being argued - gained an unfair advantage.

Red Bull has raised a protest but I would be surprised if it affected the result today. Would expect it to be something sorted after this Grand Prix.

[Karabiner]

Are Grands Prix bets not settled as "first past the post"?

[Tal]

Are Grands Prix bets not settled as "first past the post"?

I wouldn't expect so; there's an administrative step after the race where the drivers are weighed and the fuel left in the tank is checked (so there has to be enough fuel left in, which is sometimes an issue), plus there are sometimes stewards' enquiries after the race.

That said, I'd be really suprirised if this news had any bearing on the race result.

[Bad Beat]

 Wouldn't describe myself as any kind of GP expert (stupid sport). I have done well over the years by just betting each-way on bad drivers near the front of the grid when the each-way terms suit the punter. By bad drivers I mean people who don't often win and who have generally "fluked" a good qualifying run or who are priced higher to win than their grid position suggests.

 Last time I bet Rosberg at 7/1+ as the Spanish race is one where it's hard to overtake and pole has a great record. People seemed to think he "couldn't" win.

 This week the track is even more in favour of "no-overtaking" but isn't 6/4 a big adjustment considering he was unplaced last time?

 He is 13/8 with Ladbrokes and VC and 2.48 on Betfair. I laid 2.38 as Ladbrokes were 6/4 at the time and I consider them to be reasonable judges.

 I'm considering laying again at 6/4. Would anyone put me off?

 By the way this would be a rare example of a spot where I would green out if I had backed Rosberg at big prices.

[Tal]

What would you normally price a Pole-sitter up as on a track where overtaking is difficult?

Pros:
+ consistently fast car this weekend
+ form driver
+ winner tends to come from 1-2-3
+ locked up the front row on the grid, making overtaking even harder
+ everyone else has to gamble and take risks to win, where Rosberg doesn't
+ safety cars are a regular feature and slow the race down

Cons:
- Mercedes struggling for race pace
- tyre management remains an issue
- will Lewis attack?
- lots of room for crashes/incident, with a few lower down than you would normally see them (like Massa), which is often a signal that there could be a bump or two along the way.

I won't put you off. Interested to know how you'd price it, tho, and why.

[scotty2hatty]

OVERNIGHT UFC RESULTS

We had two UFC bets overnight.

We were on Junior dos Santos to beat Mark Hunt in the first round, £25 @ 11/5.

The fight report states.......

It ended violently and decisively, at the end of Junior dos Santos' fists and knees and, ultimately his foot.

The former UFC heavyweight champion worked his way through Hunt's defense and finally finished him after a spinning heel kick at 4:18 of the third round.

So, right result, wrong round.

We were also on Cerrone to beat Noons "by decision". £20 @ 15/8.

Fight report......

Cerrone returned to his winning ways, thrashing Noons in a UFC 160 unanimous decision by scores of 30-27, 30-27 and 30-26.

Winner!

Well done Scott, love your UFC stuff.

I MAY owe someone - Marky or Walsall? for part of one of those two bets, as I think I got restricted. Remind me if I owe you please.

We were a little unfortunate, JDS dropped Hunt in the 1st round with a huge overhand right that would have killed me but Hunt recovered as Dos Santos fought quite conservatively. Was a nice finish in the 3rd though.

Pleased Cerrone won.

Anyone who I am friends with on FB might have been given my other bet (Teixeira by sub) which landed at 10/3. I'd trebled them and the non-R1 KO cost me a 35/1 winner.

Think you were restricted on both bets tikay, with Eso helping out with both.

[Bad Beat]

 I think you have all the factors Tal. Just hard to weight them obv.

 I was certain I had a great bet on a track where the leader wins around 2/3rds of the time at 7/1.

 Nobody seemed to agree.

 This time people seem to think 6/4 is about right.

 Surely it's too big a difference.

 We'll find out soon I guess.

 (we won't actually, we'll just find out how it wors out over a sample of one).

[scotty2hatty]

Little bit of spam, hoping we can get the Greyhound Derby comp running, it begins this Friday and Saturday, get involved, please.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61133.0

[Tal]

Raikkonen looks spritely. Fred could do with him getting in front of Mr Webber.

[Tal]

I think you have all the factors Tal. Just hard to weight them obv.

 I was certain I had a great bet on a track where the leader wins around 2/3rds of the time at 7/1.

 Nobody seemed to agree.

 This time people seem to think 6/4 is about right.

 Surely it's too big a difference.

 We'll find out soon I guess.

 (we won't actually, we'll just find out how it wors out over a sample of one).

I apparently omitted "everyone will be creating artificial gaps by going very slowly in order to save tyres, with the possibility of stopping once only".

It is a silly sport sometimes. None of that 'fastest car wins' nonsense.

In the GP2 yesterday, there was a new overtaking strategy of getting outside on the chicane and forcing the leading driver to cut the chicane, thereby ceding the lead or they face a penalty. Perez and Button did the same a few laps ago but even less politely.

[redarmi]

Been mulling a bet on the NBA playoffs game between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.  Miami are the best team in the NBA.  It isn't particularly close to be honest.  They went like 30 games unbeaten during the regular season and Lebron James is the best player since Jordan and the only one to have gotten close to him so it goes without saying I like the Pacers!!!!

Why?  I watched the first couple of games in Miami which they split 1-1 but bother were very close.  The line on them was Miami -8 but Miami never really looked like covering that.  Normally in the NBA we would expect home advantage to be worth somewhere in the region of 3.5-4 points so a reasonable line for this game would be somewhere between pick and Miami -1.  The general line is Miami -1.5 so we pick up a smidgeon of value there but the more important reasons are to do with the way the teams matchup.  Despite how dominant Miami have been over the rest of the league this year Indy shade their meetings 3-2 this year and the last ten meetings are 5-5 and have posted a 7-3 record against the spread in those games.  I have been struggling in my mind to understand why this might be but then I read a tweet today from Haralabous Voulgaris who is widely considered one of the best nba bettors in the world linking to this article he described as "might be the best nba piece he has read all year"  http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/58603/roy-hibbert-is-in-lebron-james-head and it certainly makes a lot of sense as to why they are playing them tough.

Added to this there is no doubt that Dwayne Wade is playing with a niggle and is not his usual self.  So effectively we can expect two of the Heats three main players to perform below their very best tonight and it doesnt seem to be in the line despite what our eyes saw in the first two games.  Don't think it is a huge edge but I would make the Pacers a small favourite here.  Suggest 30 quid on pacers +1.5 at 1.98 on Betfair or 1.95 with Pinnacle....

[tikay]

Been mulling a bet on the NBA playoffs game between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.  Miami are the best team in the NBA.  It isn't particularly close to be honest.  They went like 30 games unbeaten during the regular season and Lebron James is the best player since Jordan and the only one to have gotten close to him so it goes without saying I like the Pacers!!!!

Why?  I watched the first couple of games in Miami which they split 1-1 but bother were very close.  The line on them was Miami -8 but Miami never really looked like covering that.  Normally in the NBA we would expect home advantage to be worth somewhere in the region of 3.5-4 points so a reasonable line for this game would be somewhere between pick and Miami -1.  The general line is Miami -1.5 so we pick up a smidgeon of value there but the more important reasons are to do with the way the teams matchup.  Despite how dominant Miami have been over the rest of the league this year Indy shade their meetings 3-2 this year and the last ten meetings are 5-5 and have posted a 7-3 record against the spread in those games.  I have been struggling in my mind to understand why this might be but then I read a tweet today from Haralabous Voulgaris who is widely considered one of the best nba bettors in the world linking to this article he described as "might be the best nba piece he has read all year"  http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/58603/roy-hibbert-is-in-lebron-james-head and it certainly makes a lot of sense as to why they are playing them tough.

Added to this there is no doubt that Dwayne Wade is playing with a niggle and is not his usual self.  So effectively we can expect two of the Heats three main players to perform below their very best tonight and it doesnt seem to be in the line despite what our eyes saw in the first two games.  Don't think it is a huge edge but I would make the Pacers a small favourite here.  Suggest 30 quid on pacers +1.5 at 1.98 on Betfair or 1.95 with Pinnacle....

Thanks Stu,

On, details to follow later.

[Tal]

Red flag in Monaco so everyone stops. Means a free tyre change for everyone.