Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

I've immediately re-invested my refund back on Ms.Shin (surprise surprise) @ 16/1 for this weeks LPGA event The Shoprite Classic, an event in which she lost by a single shot the last time she played in 2011 at the same venue.

I'm recommending that fred does the same.

Do you know why she missed last week's tournament?  If you don't know, no problem.

[Doobs]

into 9/2.

Don't care what anyone says. Fred moves markets

7/2 ffs. 

[Karabiner]

I've immediately re-invested my refund back on Ms.Shin (surprise surprise) @ 16/1 for this weeks LPGA event The Shoprite Classic, an event in which she lost by a single shot the last time she played in 2011 at the same venue.

I'm recommending that fred does the same.

Do you know why she missed last week's tournament?  If you don't know, no problem.

I don't know actually, but assumed(dangerous I know) that as the first round was cancelled, four holes were unplayable and there were pics of some players fishing with fishing-rods on the 18th fairway, she was not over-enamoured with her late starting time on the further delayed opening round.

Possibly putting 2+2 together and getting a large total but I doubt it.

16/1 is massive imo, I have her 10/1 at best.

[Junior Senior]

Betfred settled Shinn bet.....with a little nudge I must add

Theyve settled mine as a loss. Guess i need to email them then

Refunded now. Cheeky barsteds

Went on the live chat last night.  He spent at least 10 minutes taking down details etc before letting me he couldn't do anything and they would email in the morning.  5 pm, no refund, no email.  Grrr

Fred was good as gold for me (established ice cream). One email sorted it.

[Junior Senior]

I've immediately re-invested my refund back on Ms.Shin (surprise surprise) @ 16/1 for this weeks LPGA event The Shoprite Classic, an event in which she lost by a single shot the last time she played in 2011 at the same venue.

I'm recommending that fred does the same.

Do you know why she missed last week's tournament?  If you don't know, no problem.

I don't know actually, but assumed(dangerous I know) that as the first round was cancelled, four holes were unplayable and there were pics of some players fishing with fishing-rods on the 18th fairway, she was not over-enamoured with her late starting time on the further delayed opening round.

Possibly putting 2+2 together and getting a large total but I doubt it.

16/1 is massive imo, I have her 10/1 at best.

Had a free £20 bet to burn with spoil sports and they are amazingly top price miss shin so we are on!

[Doobs]

I've immediately re-invested my refund back on Ms.Shin (surprise surprise) @ 16/1 for this weeks LPGA event The Shoprite Classic, an event in which she lost by a single shot the last time she played in 2011 at the same venue.

I'm recommending that fred does the same.

Do you know why she missed last week's tournament?  If you don't know, no problem.

I don't know actually, but assumed(dangerous I know) that as the first round was cancelled, four holes were unplayable and there were pics of some players fishing with fishing-rods on the 18th fairway, she was not over-enamoured with her late starting time on the further delayed opening round.

Possibly putting 2+2 together and getting a large total but I doubt it.

16/1 is massive imo, I have her 10/1 at best.

Had a free £20 bet to burn with spoil sports and they are amazingly top price miss shin so we are on!

Even more surprising they laid me a bet.  Guess she must have lost a limb or similar.

[Tal]

Will cover stuff later in more detail on Chess Thread, but there's a lot going on in Thessaloniki (sounds like that should be a song).

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess

I'm going to propose betting the opponents of two players for tomorrow.

Ivanchuk is having what is technically known as a mare. He looks like he wants to go home and has made some plays that you hate to see. If there were a Chessitis or other form of the Yips, he'd have it. He got clobbered in 19 moves today by his compatriot, Ponomariov, and Ponomariov himself expressed sympathy for his opponent (post-whooping).

He's still a very strong player and dangerous but he's not built for the long haul ATM. He plays Grischuk, a fiery, skilful Russian (who has played in the Main Event a few times, BTW). Chucky will likely try to hold him to a draw but everyone will see the Ukrainian as a wounded beast, such that they have to finish him off or lose out to those who have already dined.

Grischuk is 4.45 with the Black pieces. That isn't a massive price, but he should be much shorter than Caruana against Morozevich, so I'm happy that £10 on Alexander Grischuk is a good bet.


Edit: the price has gone from 4.3 to 4.45 since I posted and Ivanchuk has also gone out, because money has gone on the draw (I assume the market moved that way because of money). Ivachuk played very stodgily a couple of days ago, when he last had white, in order to avoid defeat, and held out. He might try that again, but it is far from foolproof as a strategy and I don't see any reason to change my position.

[Karabiner]

Thanks Ralph. Can't stop, am late for work. Really, we ought to see why she withdrew last week first, but I don't have time, & I'm offline tonight & most of tomorrow, so we are on.

£20 @ 16/1, Ladbrokes, Ms Shin, ShopRite Classic.

ON

2013 ShopRite LPGA Classic
ShopRite LPGA Classic
2013-05-31 12:00:00
 
Market: Tournament winner 
 
Selection: Jiyai Shin @ 16/1 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000345
 
Placed at: 18:03 28/05/2013
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £20.00
 
Number of lines: 1
 
Stake: £20.00
 
Tax: £0.00
 
Tax Rate: 0.00%
 
Total Paid: £20.00
 
 £340.00
 
 

By re-invest I actually meant EW like the original bet, that's what I did anyhow.

Let's hope this works out for the better.

[Tal]

My second (I know...cover your eyes, Adz) chess proposal is to bet on Ponomariov the Chucky Slayer. He plays Svidler tomorrow, again with the Black pieces.

Here's where it gets fun...

Svidler has won his last three games against Ponomariov. As you've doubtless realised by now, there are a lot of draws in chess and the skill is often in picking winners, unless there's a wonky value draw price to be had. When these two play, there are a lot of decisive games (ie, non-draws), which is a good sign for a bet.

Svidler had a tough game today, where he was outmanoeuvred by a brilliant Kamsky. Those positional games are so difficult, even for these guys, and the 4 hour game he had today will have been hard work. Conversely, Ponomariov had an effective walkover against Ivanchuk and will have had extra preparation time today.

Svidler tends to dictate his fate, either nailing the opening and forcing the game or missing a trick somewhere and playing catchup. This week, it is been more of column B than column A and 6.8 for Ponomariov feels wrong, when the market says this game is the second most likely to end in a draw. Can't be right, even if it does end in a draw

Recommend £10 on Ruslan Ponomariov.

Would really like one of these to get home, or I'll start to get a complex about how they only win when Fred misses the boat.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £362.28

Outstanding Bets £1376.75

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=24


A loss of £45 yesterday with two losing bets. Swann took 10 wickets at Headingley but the lack of wickets at Lords meant he finished two behind Broad in the series wicket taker market for a loss of £20

My Time is still running at Redcar. -£25

Today we have Argent Knight in the 4.40 at Colwick Park, a haunt of my Youth and so far that's it....

In the longer term markets two of our cricket bets meet as Northants play Hampshire at Wnatage Road. The only LVCC2 fixture of the week and a chance for both teams to pick up some points. Lets hope the weather does not cause a nasty washout to our hopes...

The quiet before the storm. This weekend sees The Derby, the Oaks, One Day Cricket Internationals, the start of the Lions Tour and Ms Shin taking our interest..

[BigAdz]

Argent Knight, 4.40 Nott tomorrow

11/2 Paddy Power is lololol, but gl getting more than a tenner on.

Is that tomorrow, or earlier this afternoon?

 

See what happened with that one I gave you at Redcar this afternoon? Exactly. Stuffed. It's best to let them run before making final decisions imo.

11/4

9/2. Good.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

At the risk of seeming like BigAdz I had a lovely tennis winner yesterday which I neglected to put up. I am all in favour of aftertiming though. We hear so much crap about firms closing accounts, or limiting bets that any post that mentions getting one over them is OK with me. Let us not forget either that BigAdz's devotion to this thread is unequalled. Whenever I see a post of his I have an image in my mind of him hopping off his newly tupped wife and checking Fred to see if he needs to back anything.

I think today we should back Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Jeremy Chardy. They have never met before and their records on clay are pretty similar. However the telling case for backing the underdog is their records against G Simon in April/May of this year on clay. Agut beat him 2-0 and Chardy lost to him 2-0 yet we can get 11/5 for Agut to win today. I think that the bookies have just looked at the world rankings to make a market here with Agut ranked 68 and Chardy 27.

Suggest £20 Agut @ 11/5 with Boyles.

[scotty2hatty]

The Greyhound Derby competition has exploded with interest, we now have 13 entries. Format has changed, you pay your £20 and are assigned a kennel of dogs and score points on their performance.

Get involved, if we can get to 20 runners, a juicy £400 prize would be sweet.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61133.0

[BigAdz]

Morning Mr T.

At the risk of seeming like BigAdz I had a lovely tennis winner yesterday which I neglected to put up. I am all in favour of aftertiming though. We hear so much crap about firms closing accounts, or limiting bets that any post that mentions getting one over them is OK with me. Let us not forget either that BigAdz's devotion to this thread is unequalled. Whenever I see a post of his I have an image in my mind of him hopping off his newly tupped wife and checking Fred to see if he needs to back anything.

I think today we should back Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Jeremy Chardy. They have never met before and their records on clay are pretty similar. However the telling case for backing the underdog is their records against G Simon in April/May of this year on clay. Agut beat him 2-0 and Chardy lost to him 2-0 yet we can get 11/5 for Agut to win today. I think that the bookies have just looked at the world rankings to make a market here with Agut ranked 68 and Chardy 27.

Suggest £20 Agut @ 11/5 with Boyles.

Ah. At last. Someone that understands me. Apart from the aftertiming and tupping bit..........GL

[BigAdz]

No slating Chompy today.

Argent Knight. NR