Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Ouch match abandoned South Africa go through

the rain arrives five minutes earlier West Indies go through, then they lose a wicket

Nasty.

[TightEnd]

Essex out for 20, in vision

[Tal]

Kramnik got into a great position against an ailing Nakamura; a pawn up with no obvious compensation for the opponent. Should be enough.

Kramnik made a couple of slightly passive moves, rather than going for the kill and Nakamura was able to complicate the position enough to muddy the waters a bit.

Kramnik made a mistake and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Fred has been sickeningly unlucky, as he could have been 1½/2 and leading but is now rock bottom.

I'm going to stick my neck out here and say

EFFEMELLE
I run so bad!

As a distraction (a vain attempt...), here's a picture of what Boris Gelfand looks like when he's cruising to a comfortable victory:

[The Camel]

Effemelle is a great name for a horse.

Jus saying.

[BigAdz]

Its no time to squirt yourself in your favourite perfume Tal.....

[Tal]

Effemelle is a great name for a horse.

Jus saying.

I can see it now. The Tips for Tikay Gold Cup...[insert harp music]…yes....I can see it all...

"Effemelle leads as she has done since the off. Travelling very smoothly, there seems to be nothing at all that can stop her taking this race. The crowd are cheering. The bookies slumped in their seats. Just the final furlong now and...OH!!! What happened there?! Effemelle seemed to stumble on a mole hill! That is incredible. The jockey is trying to regain the stride but it's too late and she's fallen away to last place.

It's between I Quite Fancy and Cheeky Tenner now and no one expected either of those to do well today. They cross the line together and the photo will tell us which has won.

Excuse me, ladies and gentlemen. I'm just hearing the Stewards have disqualified both horses and so the race is won by the third-placed horse, which was...er...number six:

Aftertime."

 

[MereNovice]

If tikay were in charge I'm sure that he'd say something encouraging at this point so:

"it's a marathon not a sprint"

"looks like we had great value"

"you can't win them all"

"the pictures are nice"

"we had a good sweat"


I hope that helps soothe the pain.

[Tal]

If tikay were in charge I'm sure that he'd say something encouraging at this point so:

"it's a marathon not a sprint"

"looks like we had great value"

"you can't win them all"

"the pictures are nice"

"we had a good sweat"


I hope that helps soothe the pain.

Good job he isn't then, I suppose.

Still have seven rounds to turn it around/salvage some pride/compound the misery

[hector62]

Evening Mr M.

Tomorrow sees the Lions play the Warratahs a week before the 1st test. So far the Lions have faced very mediocre opposition and the only time they had a decent opposition they struggled. Tomorrow I expect them to struggle to cover the 25 point handicap. I can't see where the Lions points will come from. The centres can't pass and they don't have the big Welsh wings to come in centre field. As good as 1/2p is in defence he doesn't offer much in attack. Even more uninspiring is the Lions bench, not a game changer in sight. Without Tipuric to add some fluidity between the backs and forwards it looks a functional side.

With the 1st test looming the first choice test players, Phillips, POC,Sexton AWJ etc will be looking to avoid injury rather than do much. I would expect a lot of substitutes to be used which will disjoint things.

Suggest £22 @ 10/11 Warratahs + 25 points Boylesport.

[MereNovice]

Evening Mr M.

Tomorrow sees the Lions play the Warratahs a week before the 1st test. So far the Lions have faced very mediocre opposition and the only time they had a decent opposition they struggled. Tomorrow I expect them to struggle to cover the 25 point handicap. I can't see where the Lions points will come from. The centres can't pass and they don't have the big Welsh wings to come in centre field. As good as 1/2p is in defence he doesn't offer much in attack. Even more uninspiring is the Lions bench, not a game changer in sight. Without Tipuric to add some fluidity between the backs and forwards it looks a functional side.

With the 1st test looming the first choice test players, Phillips, POC,Sexton AWJ etc will be looking to avoid injury rather than do much. I would expect a lot of substitutes to be used which will disjoint things.

Suggest £22 @ 10/11 Warratahs + 25 points Boylesport.

The Waratahs look weak, particularly in the pack, with 10 players in the Wallabies squad although Rob Horne and Dave Dennis have been released to play in this match.

We can get evens in two spots for +24 points (Ladbrokes and WilliamHill). Is it worth trying to squeeze out a fraction more on the price or is 24 points such a golden number? I know that  it is three goals (converted tries) and a penalty goal or eight penalties or various other combinations.


I will certainly bet your recommendation but would like some feedback first if anyone feels so inclined.

[MereNovice]

In golf news, the amateur Cheng Tsung Pan is doing his best to sabotage our Michael Kim bet as he is currently tied for 4th place on level par, one shot behind the leaders.

[scotty2hatty]

UFC 161 tomorrow evening and whilst I have picked out a number of bets, there is one I think TfT should back.

Pat Barry has 5 of his 8 career wins by first round TKO/KO and is 13/5 with Paddy Power to do so at UFC 161. He is a 4/5 favourite in the outrights and if he is to win, first round KO seems to be his most likely route given the above statistic and the fact he is a known aggressive, fast starting striker.

His opponent, Shawn Jordan, can wrestle, but Barry is tough to take down (80% takedown defence) so it is likely he will be forced to stand and trade with the stats showing that both men land and absorb a lot of punches - if they are both being hit, it's likely Barry's strikes will carry the most power.

The same bet is incidentally 6/4 in the other place offering the market.

Recommend £15 on Pat Barry to win in the 1st round, UFC 161, at 13/5 with Paddy Power.

The other bet I like is Roy Nelson to win in the 1st round too, he won for us last time out in the first round at 23/10. Most bookies have caught on with his price as short as 6/5 but SportingBet go 17/10 which I think must be a bet too. I'll think overnight.

[moonandback]

Micheal Kim just birdied #1 to go 2 over, he looks to have a really really nice swing too can see why he did so well in college golf.

[MereNovice]

UFC 161 tomorrow evening and whilst I have picked out a number of bets, there is one I think TfT should back.

Pat Barry has 5 of his 8 career wins by first round TKO/KO and is 13/5 with Paddy Power to do so at UFC 161. He is a 4/5 favourite in the outrights and if he is to win, first round KO seems to be his most likely route given the above statistic and the fact he is a known aggressive, fast starting striker.

His opponent, Shawn Jordan, can wrestle, but Barry is tough to take down (80% takedown defence) so it is likely he will be forced to stand and trade with the stats showing that both men land and absorb a lot of punches - if they are both being hit, it's likely Barry's strikes will carry the most power.

The same bet is incidentally 6/4 in the other place offering the market.

Recommend £15 on Pat Barry to win in the 1st round, UFC 161, at 13/5 with Paddy Power.

The other bet I like is Roy Nelson to win in the 1st round too, he won for us last time out in the first round at 23/10. Most bookies have caught on with his price as short as 6/5 but SportingBet go 17/10 which I think must be a bet too. I'll think overnight.

On

The first bet has been placed. I will await the auguries with regard to the Roy Nelson bet.

Win
Single: Pat Barry To Win in Round 1 @ 13/5
1 line at £15.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £15.00
Potential returns: £54.00
No: O/22838217/0000135

[MereNovice]

Micheal Kim just birdied #1 to go 2 over, he looks to have a really really nice swing too can see why he did so well in college golf.

Yes, it looks like a good tip.
Unfortunate that    Cheng Tsung Pan hasn't read the script so far.

I'm not a great advocate of sweats; I'd be quite happy if Kim made the cut and the rest didn't.