Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

Rule 4 was applied on the 16:20 and 16:55 races.

Songbird returned £40 - would have been £50
Alcaeus returned £50 - would have been £56.25.

[BigAdz]

I think its safe to say you need a big portfolio of players for this US Open, and its gonna be a fun ride!

That rough looks terrifying!

[TightEnd]

Sri Lanka thrashing England chasing 294 has really put the cat amongst the pigeons in Group A of the CT

Going into the final games the Table reads

NZ  3 points NRR +1.05
England 2 points NRR +0.29
Sri Lanka 2 points NRR -0.52
Australia 1 point NRR -0.96

On Sunday England play New Zeland
On Monday Australia play Sri Lanka

Top two to the semis

So, for us, if New Zealand beat England they are through top of group and avoid India

They'll be underdogs though

Even if NZ lose on Sunday, they can still qualify on NRR if Australia beat Sri Lanka on Monday, depending on the closeness of each result

But, wait a minute

the Sunday weather forecast is very poor.

As one commentator tweeted earlier

"England really need to win this match because the forecast for their game against New Zealand in Cardiff on Sunday suggests possible washout"

If so, Nz get a point and are through to the Semis

Looking at http://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/market?id=1.107019642 has NZ marginal favourites to win the group at 13/2 overall for the trophy as I write, but its a really tough call

There is value somewhere in the four teams in Group A, with all four priced behind India and South Africa to win it with two teams sure to go through....

Still watching, and might be forced to trade out Mid Sunday


In the other group, where India are through, the winners of WI v SA tomorrow qualifiy

WI 16 to win the CT, South Africa 4.9 as I write.....

1.7 SA 2.4 WI tomorrow...

Do we really think in a one off game SA are that strong a favourite against the West Indies Gayle, Pollard, Samuels, Narine, Roach and all?

I don't. Of course South Africa are favourites but its one of the most striking cricket price differentials for a while......

[MereNovice]

I note that you haven't explicitly recommended anything but surely we must bet on West Indies in some way.
I guess that the generous odds for them to win the tournament are based on a chance of a no result in their next match which would put South Africa through.

[TightEnd]

I note that you haven't explicitly recommended anything but surely we must bet on West Indies in some way.
I guess that the generous odds for them to win the tournament are based on a chance of a no result in their next match which would put South Africa through.

Yes, 16 versus 4.7 reflects weather risk as 1 point each sends SAfrica through....

SA have Steyn back and probably are more consistent in most areas and less boom/bust than the Windies.

However as I say 2.4 did strike me as very interesting, especially if its a shortened game..I'd take WI over SA in 20-20 at the moment for example

[MereNovice]

I note that you haven't explicitly recommended anything but surely we must bet on West Indies in some way.
I guess that the generous odds for them to win the tournament are based on a chance of a no result in their next match which would put South Africa through.

Yes, 16 versus 4.7 reflects weather risk as 1 point each sends SAfrica through....

SA have Steyn back and probably are more consistent in most areas and less boom/bust than the Windies.

However as I say 2.4 did strike me as very interesting, especially if its a shortened game..I'd take WI over SA in 20-20 at the moment for example

I guess everyone is hanging on a Tighty weather forecast for Cardiff tomorrow.
Are there any locals who follow Fred who would like to chip in?

[Tal]

A quirky opening, an unorthodox middlegame and a few huge gambles in the endgame. Kramnik REALLY wanted a win today against Magnus Carlsen.

Kramnik has been quoted before as saying this particular tournament demands risk-taking and aggression. Few would have expected what they saw today as he tried every which way to turn a level game into a win.

He pushed once too often.

Carlsen isn't the guy to make an inaccuracy against in a complicated endgame, even if you're Kramnik. The computers didn't like Kramnik's final swoosh and Carlsen played brilliantly to show why.

Cliffs: our man lost today.

2 other decisive games: Nakamura lost to Mamedyarov (Nakamura is really struggling) and Caruana beat Anand. I'd say a bad day at the office, but it's a nine round tournament and this looks every bit like a bruising comp, with people taking it in turns to beat each other up. That's what we would like to happen, of course.

[TightEnd]

I note that you haven't explicitly recommended anything but surely we must bet on West Indies in some way.
I guess that the generous odds for them to win the tournament are based on a chance of a no result in their next match which would put South Africa through.

Yes, 16 versus 4.7 reflects weather risk as 1 point each sends SAfrica through....

SA have Steyn back and probably are more consistent in most areas and less boom/bust than the Windies.

However as I say 2.4 did strike me as very interesting, especially if its a shortened game..I'd take WI over SA in 20-20 at the moment for example

I guess everyone is hanging on a Tighty weather forecast for Cardiff tomorrow.
Are there any locals who follow Fred who would like to chip in?

http://www.weathercity.com/uk/wa/cardiff/

This would suggest leaving cricket betting tomorrow well alone

too much risk of rain, too much of an advantage to the side winning the toss, Duckworth Lewis Shenanigans

I suppose the prices above reflect much of that risk.

[Rubbish2407]

I note that you haven't explicitly recommended anything but surely we must bet on West Indies in some way.
I guess that the generous odds for them to win the tournament are based on a chance of a no result in their next match which would put South Africa through.

Yes, 16 versus 4.7 reflects weather risk as 1 point each sends SAfrica through....

SA have Steyn back and probably are more consistent in most areas and less boom/bust than the Windies.

However as I say 2.4 did strike me as very interesting, especially if its a shortened game..I'd take WI over SA in 20-20 at the moment for example

I guess everyone is hanging on a Tighty weather forecast for Cardiff tomorrow.
Are there any locals who follow Fred who would like to chip in?

Weather was miserable today. Will post about 6.30 before I go to work.

[MereNovice]

I note that you haven't explicitly recommended anything but surely we must bet on West Indies in some way.
I guess that the generous odds for them to win the tournament are based on a chance of a no result in their next match which would put South Africa through.

Yes, 16 versus 4.7 reflects weather risk as 1 point each sends SAfrica through....

SA have Steyn back and probably are more consistent in most areas and less boom/bust than the Windies.

However as I say 2.4 did strike me as very interesting, especially if its a shortened game..I'd take WI over SA in 20-20 at the moment for example

I guess everyone is hanging on a Tighty weather forecast for Cardiff tomorrow.
Are there any locals who follow Fred who would like to chip in?

Weather was miserable today. Will post about 6.30 before I go to work.

Top man.

[JaffaCake]

Is Fred able to bet with Tony G's site Tony Bet? Some interesting prices on the NBA on there...

[redarmi]

thank you

in these races is it not better to find the best possible bet on form, judgement etc rather than just going for the short priced favourite?

win or lose on these offers I like to think we could apply "research" intelligence as well as "maths" intelligence rather than just putting the favourite on....

Yes it is definitely better to find a "value" bet for the initial bet but the long terms stats show that you are gicing away the least value with a blind approach by betting the favourite in a race and certainly at the front of the market because of favourite-longshot bias.  So you can make on them in an easy way by just betting the favourite blind or, alternatively, possibly nick another quid or so by studying the race and betting the horse you think is the best value but realistically because these offers are normally restricted to  a pony or so then you arent damaging your EV that much and saving a lot of time by doing it this way.

[MereNovice]

Is Fred able to bet with Tony G's site Tony Bet? Some interesting prices on the NBA on there...

He can now!

What do you recommend?

[JaffaCake]

Is Fred able to bet with Tony G's site Tony Bet? Some interesting prices on the NBA on there...

He can now!

What do you recommend?

Ha good work Mere. The prices on Mike Miller in tonight's games are all too low. Looks pretty likely he'll start the game after stellar performances off the bench in the first three games. He's 10 for 11 in three pointers over those games. I really like over 5.5 points at 1.85 and more than 1.5 three pointers at 1.90. I get the feeling they're using averages  to set those prices (he's performing way better now than earlier in the season, has got right into the rotation where earlier in the season he was barely playing, and there's rumours he'll start tonight to provide more offence). I wouldn't put u off Miller +2.5 in the match bet against Tiago Splitter either, tho maybe having three bets on one player is a waste. All look good tho, esp first two. I'll take a look through the other prices now too...

[Tal]

Tiago Splitter.

Blooming love american names.