Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

Mr Kinboshi.

Do you think Wigan are primed to play properly tonight after 2 poor performances ? What odds would you make Liam Farrell scoring a try versus Widnes?

[TightEnd]

One game in the Friends Life T20 Competition tonight, and it promises to be a thriller as Surrey take on Essex in the South Group at the Kia Oval live on Sky Sports.

- Top Surrey Batsman Gary Wilson 8/1 Ladbrokes £10

The South Group of the T20 domestic cricket competition is hugely competitive. Last year's winners Hampshire are joined by former winners Surrey, Sussex and Middlesex alongside Essex and Kent. With only two teams assured of going through beyond the group stages, every game counts

The table currently reads as follows:
    Team   Played   Won   Lost   Tied   N/R   R/R   Points
1   Hampshire    5   4   0   0   1   0.761   9.0
2   Surrey    5   4   1   0   0   0.493   8.0
3   Middlesex    7   4   3   0   0   0.435   8.0
4   Essex    6   3   2   0   1   0.31   7.0
5   Sussex    6   1   5   0   0   -0.05   2.0
6   Kent    5   0   5   0   0   -2.003   0.0

Tonight the Kia Oval plays host as Surrey play Essex.

In terms of outright odds Surrey are odds-on to continue their good form. They lost their first game in the group away to Hampshire but have won four on the bounce since . This though is a difficult game to predict, largely because of the inconsistency and unpredictability of Essex

On Friday at Chelmsford Essex were rolled over for 75 by Middlesex. On Sunday,  and hampered by conceding twelve penalty runs for not completing their overs in time, they chased 172 to beat Sussex on a similar pitch.

Whilst in these close fought games I have a usual instinct to bet the underdog for contrarian value, its an act of faith to do so with Essex.

There are further complications in these short format games, and the major one concerns The Kia Oval pitch as at the time of writing we do not know whether it will be used and worn, which is a legitimate tactic used around the country if sides want to keep games relatively low scoring, or favour spin, or neutralise the opponent's run scoring potential. If not used, the pitch at the Kia Oval will be firm, true and batsmen friendly.

The difference in the playing conditions makes the difference at the Oval between scores of 135-145 batting first and 170-80 batting first.

My suspicion is that Surrey will look for an older pitch. They have three or four viable options to take pace off the ball including experienced T20 campaigners Gareth Battyand Azhar Mahmood, as well as the variations of Jade Dernbach. Essex on the other hand have injuries in their bowling ranks, and offer a more predictable seam attack with only the spin of Tim Phillips and the slow medium of Ravi Bopara likely to suit a worn pitch, and Shaun Tait and the very rapid Tymal Mills preferring a bouncier surface

The other difference is in the batting sides. Surrey have a few big hitters but with the exception of the boom and bust Jason Roy at the top of the order and the death hitter Azhar Mahmood the side is one of accumulators, such as Ricky Ponting and Gary Wilson. Essex on the other hand have more firepower, with Napier, Ten Doeschate, Bopara, Shah and Rutherford all capable of clearing the ropes.

So, to recommendations. Tempted as I am by Essex at odds-against I am concerned about their consistency and the possibility of a worn pitch.

Instead,

- Top Surrey Batsman Gary Wilson 8/1 Ladbrokes v£10

Ireland International Wilson is often overlooked as an important cog in Surrey's T20 batting line up. An accumulator batting 5 or 6 he frequently scores heavily, often repairing poor starts from the players sent in above with a licence to hit. Of course this is T20, and top batsmen markets are fraught and high variance as a betting proposition but the general flakiness of Surrey's batting line up gives Wilson plenty of opportunities to build an innings

So far this year in three T20 innings Wilson has scored 44 not out, 31 and 29 and top scored each game. If the pitch is worn, this suits Wilson's game.

Bear in mind that if the Surrey top order fires, Wilson won't get too many overs. Odds are though that the Surrey top order won't fire, it only has once in 5 games so far in T20 this season

[Tonji]

In the Tour De France six stages remain and our hopes rest on Nairo Quintana hitting the podium. He is currently 6th, 1 minute and 22 seconds off third after finishing second to Froome on the Ventome yesterday and taking time out of Contador et al

I am not sure how realistic it is to expect him to close the gap through this week but with two ascents of the Alpe D-Huez and the Col De Madeleine to come, my muggle cycling eye says we have chances as Quintana ascends mountains expending as much effort as you do if cycling downhill to the corner shop for a pint of milk. 

Quintana is currently odds-on to podium wherever you look http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/top-3-finish

That would be a nice bonus, and something to sweat this week

Spot on Tighty.

Around 4 minutes separates 2nd to 10th. Plenty of attacking racing to move up the GC ahead of Paris on Sunday. Quintana in his element.

[Dubai]

Bopara very very unlikely to bowl as has side strain.

Fancy Essex, took 11/8 already. Fancy them most as well

[TightEnd]

yup, I put up Essex most sixes too elsewhere earlier http://www.betpal.com/t20-cricket-betting-monday-15th-july-surrey-v-essex

think that is viable if thread wants to go more nitty than a top batsman market in T20

[Dubai]

If Pettini was playing instead of Greg Smith who is probably the worst bigish money signing Essex have ever made, then it would be a really really good bet. Essex have so much firepower, Shah, Bopara and Tendo have got to be the biggest hitting 3,4,5 in county cricket? Rutherford, Foster and obv Napier make it a really big six hitting team

[kinboshi]

Mr Kinboshi.

Do you think Wigan are primed to play properly tonight after 2 poor performances ? What odds would you make Liam Farrell scoring a try versus Widnes?

Wigan will win comfortably tonight.  The 19-man squad that Wane announced was pretty close to the first choice team.  I'm not sure if O'Loughlin will play though, and he might come back for the Saints game instead.  I'm sure Wane will be demanding a good performance over the next three matches, which are important games.

Farrell to score?  I'd say it's a coin flip really.  Anything around evens would be fair, so if we can get longer than that I'd be on it. Would also be interested to see the odds on Hansen scoring as well...

[hector62]

Hansen 5/2 and Farrell 13/8 both with Betfred. I am out now for a few hours so you can pick best value.

[kinboshi]

Hansen 5/2 and Farrell 13/8 both with Betfred. I am out now for a few hours so you can pick best value.

Will have a think on that.  Will also look at the points market, should be a fair few scored tonight.

Edit: The points line is set at about 60pts.  Don't think there's an obvious bet there to be honest.  Widnes usually score a fair few points, but I can imagine Wigan's defence will be much better tonight than it has been.

[ripple11]

yup, I put up Essex most sixes too elsewhere earlier http://www.betpal.com/t20-cricket-betting-monday-15th-july-surrey-v-essex

think that is viable if thread wants to go more nitty than a top batsman market in T20

If Pettini was playing instead of Greg Smith who is probably the worst bigish money signing Essex have ever made, then it would be a really really good bet. Essex have so much firepower, Shah, Bopara and Tendo have got to be the biggest hitting 3,4,5 in county cricket? Rutherford, Foster and obv Napier make it a really big six hitting team

I'm on the sixes bet....looks very good....even Mills hit a couple against England the other day!
 Napier batting at 3  doesnt seem to have worked so presume he will go back down the order, but hopefully higher than 8 !  Impressed with Rutherford's big hitting....if he gets in, that will get the bet off to a good start!

[gherkin]

Many congrats gherkin.

Not easy to best Thewy in a Final.

PS - you missed a half decent game of cricket today. Do pay attention.

Thanks!

Special thanks to the GUKPT staff who kindly replaced the tournament clock with the cricket for the last 20 minutes

[TightEnd]

There is a short boundary at the Oval, to the right as you look.

Looks like a fresh pitch too

Quite like the Sixes bet - Essex at 11/10 multiple places

Possibly total sixes if there is a market anywhere priced below 8 sixes (not able to check currently)

Click to see full-size image.

[MereNovice]

Bopara very very unlikely to bowl as has side strain.

Fancy Essex, took 11/8 already. Fancy them most as well

On

BetVictor

Bet(s) Confirmed
You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)
Total possible returns 115.50
Bet Receipt
Single Selections
Surrey v Essex
Essex
(Most Sixes)
Odds: 11/10
Stake: 55.00
Possible Return:  115.50

Meant to bet £50 - never mind.

[MereNovice]

One game in the Friends Life T20 Competition tonight, and it promises to be a thriller as Surrey take on Essex in the South Group at the Kia Oval live on Sky Sports.

- Top Surrey Batsman Gary Wilson 8/1 Ladbrokes £10

The South Group of the T20 domestic cricket competition is hugely competitive. Last year's winners Hampshire are joined by former winners Surrey, Sussex and Middlesex alongside Essex and Kent. With only two teams assured of going through beyond the group stages, every game counts

The table currently reads as follows:
    Team   Played   Won   Lost   Tied   N/R   R/R   Points
1   Hampshire    5   4   0   0   1   0.761   9.0
2   Surrey    5   4   1   0   0   0.493   8.0
3   Middlesex    7   4   3   0   0   0.435   8.0
4   Essex    6   3   2   0   1   0.31   7.0
5   Sussex    6   1   5   0   0   -0.05   2.0
6   Kent    5   0   5   0   0   -2.003   0.0

Tonight the Kia Oval plays host as Surrey play Essex.

In terms of outright odds Surrey are odds-on to continue their good form. They lost their first game in the group away to Hampshire but have won four on the bounce since . This though is a difficult game to predict, largely because of the inconsistency and unpredictability of Essex

On Friday at Chelmsford Essex were rolled over for 75 by Middlesex. On Sunday,  and hampered by conceding twelve penalty runs for not completing their overs in time, they chased 172 to beat Sussex on a similar pitch.

Whilst in these close fought games I have a usual instinct to bet the underdog for contrarian value, its an act of faith to do so with Essex.

There are further complications in these short format games, and the major one concerns The Kia Oval pitch as at the time of writing we do not know whether it will be used and worn, which is a legitimate tactic used around the country if sides want to keep games relatively low scoring, or favour spin, or neutralise the opponent's run scoring potential. If not used, the pitch at the Kia Oval will be firm, true and batsmen friendly.

The difference in the playing conditions makes the difference at the Oval between scores of 135-145 batting first and 170-80 batting first.

My suspicion is that Surrey will look for an older pitch. They have three or four viable options to take pace off the ball including experienced T20 campaigners Gareth Battyand Azhar Mahmood, as well as the variations of Jade Dernbach. Essex on the other hand have injuries in their bowling ranks, and offer a more predictable seam attack with only the spin of Tim Phillips and the slow medium of Ravi Bopara likely to suit a worn pitch, and Shaun Tait and the very rapid Tymal Mills preferring a bouncier surface

The other difference is in the batting sides. Surrey have a few big hitters but with the exception of the boom and bust Jason Roy at the top of the order and the death hitter Azhar Mahmood the side is one of accumulators, such as Ricky Ponting and Gary Wilson. Essex on the other hand have more firepower, with Napier, Ten Doeschate, Bopara, Shah and Rutherford all capable of clearing the ropes.

So, to recommendations. Tempted as I am by Essex at odds-against I am concerned about their consistency and the possibility of a worn pitch.

Instead,

- Top Surrey Batsman Gary Wilson 8/1 Ladbrokes v£10

Ireland International Wilson is often overlooked as an important cog in Surrey's T20 batting line up. An accumulator batting 5 or 6 he frequently scores heavily, often repairing poor starts from the players sent in above with a licence to hit. Of course this is T20, and top batsmen markets are fraught and high variance as a betting proposition but the general flakiness of Surrey's batting line up gives Wilson plenty of opportunities to build an innings

So far this year in three T20 innings Wilson has scored 44 not out, 31 and 29 and top scored each game. If the pitch is worn, this suits Wilson's game.

Bear in mind that if the Surrey top order fires, Wilson won't get too many overs. Odds are though that the Surrey top order won't fire, it only has once in 5 games so far in T20 this season

Wilson now 7/1 best. Recommendation?

[MereNovice]

Total sixes markets all over the place.
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/friends-life-t20/surrey-v-essex/total-6s