Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

met office forecast not as dramatic a difference between the two days in the golf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/edinburgh#?tab=map&map=Wind&fcTime=1374224400&zoom=9&lon=-2.71&lat=55.88

[Doobs]

Fellaini85 posted this on the golf thread

Note the Betfred offer (Doobs, anything of interest?)

and strategy thoughts


Betfred going 8 places from 10am-6pm today all channels, they will probably slash all their prices just before but they havent as of yet. If they dont Gmac @ 25/1 with 8 places is very hard to resist.

I'm generally loathed to follow these weather forecasts as they are often proved wrong, but there is a strong suggestion that you probably want a late/early draw by the looks of things. 10mph stronger breeze on both days for those drawn on the other half.

http://www.myweather2.com/activity/forecast.aspx?loc=Five%20Day%20Weather%20Forecast%20for%20Muirfield&rt=plugin&id=141385&sday=1
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?hourly=1&query=zmw:00000.5.03174&yday=198&weekday=Thursday

On that basis, Gmac is main selection with darts thrown at Danny Willett, Marcus Fraser, Thongchai Jaidee, Ryan Moore, Stephen Gallacher and Harris English.

My pc expired last night so will struggle a bit until I can get a spreadsheet on my laptop and my daughter is having a nap which won't be until this afternoon.

Some of the offers are very good value (BetVictor and paddypower), where you can get close to Betfair and get generous place terms.  On my previous spreadsheet I think if you backed blind each way, you'd be more likely to get value than not.  

The bigger the price the better for each way because the big priced runners are more likely to be 8th than 1st, so 7 or 8 places is very generous.  

But if you can refine this approach by taking into account the weather it will be better so.

So if you get a late start, big price, close to Betfair on the win part, I think you are bound to get some value.

On GMac, I am pretty sure he was close to my original list at either BetVictor or Paddy Power prices.  I did have to cut it down a bit because I think Tikay would have exploded with a list of 30 or so!  

Finally I think the 7 or 8 places offers are so generous that it can't be best to bet people on the sub markets (top European etc), and if they are good enough on most of those, you should be backing them in the main market (maybe top amateur would be an exception to this?).

Will be back later.

Edit.   If there isn't much difference in the weather, I wouldn't get too sophisticated.

[Tonji]

Hi Mere,

Not sure if you're around & how long you've got.

PP Froome 1.25 v The Field 3.50 in todays TT stage.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cycling/tour-de-france?ev_oc_grp_ids=251569&aff_id=10066772

Based on weather predictions that later in the day has a greater chance of rain.

http://france.meteoconsult.fr/meteo/chorges/france/prevision_meteo_chorges_france_ville__1240_0.php?vue=detail&url=http://france.lachainemeteo.com/meteo-france/ville/previsions-meteo-chorges-1240-0.php#

Suggest £20.00 The Field, & rain dance!

[Doobs]

Just had a quick trawl through Betfred, they seem to be short on a lot of the big priced runners.   I think GMac must be a bet at 25/1 8 places.  Will look at the rest this afternoon.

Edit. Adam Scott is now 25/1 with PP with 7 places.  Betfair is 25/1 and you get 7 places for only slightly worse price than you get for 5 on Betfair.   Hills, Bet365 and Stans all got similar offers, but when I looked the other day, you could usually get better places or prices at BetVictor and PP.

[Karabiner]

A rerun of the 1986 Open with Henry Longhurst's peerless commentary is currently on BBC2.

Longhurst is magnificently simple unlike his cheap imitator Alliss.

[Tal]

United have rejected a bid for Wayne Rooney from Chelsea. The bid is reported to be £10m + Juan Mata (or maybe David Luiz).

Firstly, that's bonkers.

Secondly, here are the prices for Rooney's club after the transfer window closes:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/wayne-rooney/club-after-summer-window

Looks like some of the bookies haven't reacted yet.

Unibet £25 to be spent at even money on him going to Chelsea?

[MereNovice]

Hi Mere,

Not sure if you're around & how long you've got.

PP Froome 1.25 v The Field 3.50 in todays TT stage.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cycling/tour-de-france?ev_oc_grp_ids=251569&aff_id=10066772

Based on weather predictions that later in the day has a greater chance of rain.

http://france.meteoconsult.fr/meteo/chorges/france/prevision_meteo_chorges_france_ville__1240_0.php?vue=detail&url=http://france.lachainemeteo.com/meteo-france/ville/previsions-meteo-chorges-1240-0.php#

Suggest £20.00 The Field, & rain dance!

I'm late on parade (and will be so tomorrow).
The field is now 2/1 - is this still a bet?

[MereNovice]

Just had a quick trawl through Betfred, they seem to be short on a lot of the big priced runners.   I think GMac must be a bet at 25/1 8 places.  Will look at the rest this afternoon.

Edit. Adam Scott is now 25/1 with PP with 7 places.  Betfair is 25/1 and you get 7 places for only slightly worse price than you get for 5 on Betfair.   Hills, Bet365 and Stans all got similar offers, but when I looked the other day, you could usually get better places or prices at BetVictor and PP.

Adam Scptt is now 18/1 and Graeme McDowell 22/1 with the two firms offering 8 places (BetFred and ToteSport) whilst they are 25/1 elsewhere (eg PaddyPower) for 7 places.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/winner

I haven't done any maths but assume that Scott can't be a bet at 18/1 and don't know about McDowell.

[hector62]

Tennis  just started.

Suggest Garcia-Lopez to beat Youzhny £15 @ 13/10 with Bet Victor in play.

[MereNovice]

Tennis  just started.

Suggest Garcia-Lopez to beat Youzhny £15 @ 13/10 with Bet Victor in play.

Garcia-Lopez has broken in the first game so that has gone.
Good luck to anyone that got on.

[Doobs]

Just had a quick trawl through Betfred, they seem to be short on a lot of the big priced runners.   I think GMac must be a bet at 25/1 8 places.  Will look at the rest this afternoon.

Edit. Adam Scott is now 25/1 with PP with 7 places.  Betfair is 25/1 and you get 7 places for only slightly worse price than you get for 5 on Betfair.   Hills, Bet365 and Stans all got similar offers, but when I looked the other day, you could usually get better places or prices at BetVictor and PP.

Adam Scptt is now 18/1 and Graeme McDowell 22/1 with the two firms offering 8 places (BetFred and ToteSport) whilst they are 25/1 elsewhere (eg PaddyPower) for 7 places.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/winner

I haven't done any maths but assume that Scott can't be a bet at 18/1 and don't know about McDowell.

Scott is good at 25/1 Paddy Power 7 places.  Sorry I wasn't clear PP is Paddy Power.

Will let Tighty come back on GMac as he put him up.  25/1 with 7 places (paddy power) is better than 22/1 with 8 places.

I might not get chance to do a spreadsheet this afternoon.  I forgot something I need to do. 

What is the max per event?  Is it £300.  There is a lot of value around.

[tikay]

A rerun of the 1986 Open with Henry Longhurst's peerless commentary is currently on BBC2.

Longhurst is magnificently simple unlike his cheap imitator Alliss.

Oh my word

I adored Henry. I have several books about him, & by him.

"My Life & Soft Times" clearly the best of the lot.

He was The Sunday Times Golf Corry for several decades, & lived in a pair of windmills named Jack & Jill, on the South Downs.

[TightEnd]

Thread currently has £150 invested at Muirfield on 7 positions

Fellaini85 was GMac on the Golf thread. Looks good to me.

Depends what Mere wants to have "at risk" on the event


I liked the Stephen Gallacher idea from Henrik too. 175/1 outright too iirc.

[tikay]

Thread currently has £150 invested at Muirfield on 7 positions

Fellaini85 was GMac on the Golf thread. Looks good to me.

Depends what Mere wants to have "at risk" on the event


I liked the Stephen Gallacher idea from Henrik too. 175/1 outright too iirc.

Mere currently has the reins & I won't be interfering until I resume the reins at 00.01 on Friday, but I think for a major sporting events such as this, with the monsta sweat potential, & the risks nicely spread around, rather than one huge bet, we can & should justify investing a little more if we can get value. Chompy, & Big Brother nonsense excepted, of course, where the Rebuff Rule will remain rigidly enforced.

Bear in mind, of course, that Mere is the custodian of, & responsible for, my money, so he has a natural caution, & errs on the prudent side, as anyone would when handling other people's cash. Quite what made him think a Big Brother suggestion by Chompy was "prudent" I'm really not sure.

[Tal]

Am I hearing right that Froome is going to change bikes in the middle of today's time trial?

Should that be allowed? F1 cars have different tyres, different suspension settings, ride heights, torque settings and everything else, but the car itself has to stay the same.