Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Enjoying the betting show a lot, pitched about right

Would love to do the football preview. Ten minutes from me on FFP and the Watford transfer embargo would do wonders for the viewing figures

And don't forget the preview for the World Chess Championship, which starts on 6 November. Happy to discuss an appearance, as I'll be known to the Sky audience for winning the six max by then

[Doobs]

Next week's Sussex stakes looks an interesting race.

There are currently 13 runners, of which Aljamaaheer looks like it is going for the Lennox.

The composition of the race is currently
Dawn Approach 5/4
Toronado 13/8
Declaration of War 5/1
2 pace makers for Dawn Approach
1 pace maker for Declaration of War
1 pace maker for Toronado.
and a few that may turn up, but are probably group 2/group 3 horses.

There seems to be a good chance we get 8 runners or less, and even if we get 12, the race is still likely to be good for our bet.

Dawn Approach is obviously very good, and Toronado is highly though of and ran him close last time.  Declaration of War is also very good, and given the two 3 year olds are very much linked on form, then there is always a chance that Declaration of War is just as good, and/or Dawn Approach refuses to settle.

You can back Declaration of War at 5/1 with various bookmakers.  Though it doesn't beat Betfair, his place price should probably be way shorter than the evens on offer.  Even if the two 3 year olds do turn out to be exceptional, then we get the strong chance of our money back on the place.

Suggest £50 e/w on Declaration of War (1/5 first 3) in the Sussex.  You should probably split it over at least a couple of bookmakers.  The following all offer the price and the same each way terms (PP, bet365, sky, tote/betfred, BetVictor and Coral).

[Evilpengwinz]

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers

Spotted something for this weekend's Hungarian GP.

Bet365, over 19 finishers = 6/5
Betfred, under 19.5 finishers = 17/20

Free money? I'm not missing something really obvious here, am I?

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers

Spotted something for this weekend's Hungarian GP.

Bet365, over 19 finishers = 6/5
Betfred, under 19.5 finishers = 17/20

Free money? I'm not missing something really obvious here, am I?

Maybe it is me that is missing something, Andy, but the phraseology seems OK to me.

OVER 19 finishers means 20 or more finishers. It is not "19 or over".

Under 19.5 finishers means 19 or less.

That's how I read it, anyway.

I will prepare an excuse in case I have misunderstood...... 

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £100.80

Outstanding Bets £1922.60

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=27

A loss of £10 yesterday with the outsider Sussex Cup greyhound failing to go through in the first round

Bets were placed on David Warner, Napoli in Serie A and Warrington in the Challenge Cup

Phil Taylor beat Pipe in a very high scoring World Matchplay quarter final. He now plays James Wade in the semis and we have £50 11/4 with a free bet if MVG wins. MVG now plays Chisnal in his half of the draw today to play Lewis/Hamilton in the semis

In Scotland Malmo scored a try and a conversion to beat Hibs 7-0 at Easter Road. The Hibs Manager was 12-1 pre-kick off in the SPL manager sacking market and 3-1 by the end of the game!

It's a year on from the start of the London Olympics today.

[tikay]

Any value in backing Dortmund e/w for as much as possible with Ladbrokes for the Bundesliga? Laddies pay out top 2 and are 11/2 Dortmund with Munich 1/6 and the next best at 33/1. It's dirty and long term but surely we are locking up profit with an outside (read remote) chance of collecting the lot.

Edit - forgot to add its 1/3 odds for top 2.

Thanks, & an interesting spot, effectively a long-term freeroll.

My worry is the highlighted part. I'ver lost, or had severely Restricted, way too many accounts already, & I can't afford to have any more Restricted or closed. This one deffo looks like it might threaten my Account.

[Tal]

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers

Spotted something for this weekend's Hungarian GP.

Bet365, over 19 finishers = 6/5
Betfred, under 19.5 finishers = 17/20

Free money? I'm not missing something really obvious here, am I?

Maybe it is me that is missing something, Andy, but the phraseology seems OK to me.

OVER 19 finishers means 20 or more finishers. It is not "19 or over".

Under 19.5 finishers means 19 or less.

That's how I read it, anyway.

I will prepare an excuse in case I have misunderstood...... 

It's 99.5% if I'm doing my maths correctly, so you can have a haporth of value.

At the buffet of value, it's the last cocktail stick in the tin foil hedgehog and someone's had the pineapple, so it's just a lump of cheese with half a damp stick.

But we have bet on much worse. If someone has a view that the line is wrong, it could be a knee slide across the dancefloor with the kids to snaffle the blancmange.

[TightEnd]

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[tikay]

Next week's Sussex stakes looks an interesting race.

There are currently 13 runners, of which Aljamaaheer looks like it is going for the Lennox.

The composition of the race is currently
Dawn Approach 5/4
Toronado 13/8
Declaration of War 5/1
2 pace makers for Dawn Approach
1 pace maker for Declaration of War
1 pace maker for Toronado.
and a few that may turn up, but are probably group 2/group 3 horses.

There seems to be a good chance we get 8 runners or less, and even if we get 12, the race is still likely to be good for our bet.

Dawn Approach is obviously very good, and Toronado is highly though of and ran him close last time.  Declaration of War is also very good, and given the two 3 year olds are very much linked on form, then there is always a chance that Declaration of War is just as good, and/or Dawn Approach refuses to settle.

You can back Declaration of War at 5/1 with various bookmakers.  Though it doesn't beat Betfair, his place price should probably be way shorter than the evens on offer.  Even if the two 3 year olds do turn out to be exceptional, then we get the strong chance of our money back on the place.

Suggest £50 e/w on Declaration of War (1/5 first 3) in the Sussex.  You should probably split it over at least a couple of bookmakers.  The following all offer the price and the same each way terms (PP, bet365, sky, tote/betfred, BetVictor and Coral).

Morning Mr Doobs.

As of right now, DoW is 6/1, not 5/1.

Afte some intense calculations, I have established that 6/1 beats 5/1, however, before I proceed to place the suggested bet, I'm curious as to why DoW may have drifted overnight, & in the light of this, wonder whether you still wish to proceed?

I'll be offline in an hour or so, & if we do intend to get on DoW, I'd like to do so before then.

[TightEnd]

Quick warning, going to be out of routine over the next few days as I am SPTing at DTD. Daily reports at odd hours and spreadsheet updated less frequently. Will get to it when I can

[Bad Beat]

 Doobs is 100% correct on the Sussex stakes.

 This is a great bet, although it could again be dangerous for accounts.

 I have a few things to do today but I now feel I should be out walking ten miles.

 I suggest at least £150 each-way, definitely the best bet I've seen suggested here since something the other week that looked really clever.

 If we have to pretend we are just doing it "to trade later" then lets have £500 each-way and then we'll simply close if it shortens up with no realm discussion of why we're doing that, whether it was a good thing to do or what we intended to do if it drifted right out.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers

Spotted something for this weekend's Hungarian GP.

Bet365, over 19 finishers = 6/5
Betfred, under 19.5 finishers = 17/20

Free money? I'm not missing something really obvious here, am I?

Maybe it is me that is missing something, Andy, but the phraseology seems OK to me.

OVER 19 finishers means 20 or more finishers. It is not "19 or over".

Under 19.5 finishers means 19 or less.

That's how I read it, anyway.

I will prepare an excuse in case I have misunderstood...... 

It's 99.5% if I'm doing my maths correctly, so you can have a haporth of value.

At the buffet of value, it's the last cocktail stick in the tin foil hedgehog and someone's had the pineapple, so it's just a lump of cheese with half a damp stick.

But we have bet on much worse. If someone has a view that the line is wrong, it could be a knee slide across the dancefloor with the kids to snaffle the blancmange.

Ha, a beautiful bit of wordage there Mr Posh Bloke.

I now also see the point Andy was making, & which I missed completely, apologies to him.

Not sure we need to expend too much energy trying to nick that halfpenny, but thanks anyway, Andy.

[Bad Beat]

 Where can you see 6/1 by the way? Looks like 5/1 to me. I would take 7/2 pretty happily on this bet.

[Doobs]

Next week's Sussex stakes looks an interesting race.

There are currently 13 runners, of which Aljamaaheer looks like it is going for the Lennox.

The composition of the race is currently
Dawn Approach 5/4
Toronado 13/8
Declaration of War 5/1
2 pace makers for Dawn Approach
1 pace maker for Declaration of War
1 pace maker for Toronado.
and a few that may turn up, but are probably group 2/group 3 horses.

There seems to be a good chance we get 8 runners or less, and even if we get 12, the race is still likely to be good for our bet.

Dawn Approach is obviously very good, and Toronado is highly though of and ran him close last time.  Declaration of War is also very good, and given the two 3 year olds are very much linked on form, then there is always a chance that Declaration of War is just as good, and/or Dawn Approach refuses to settle.

You can back Declaration of War at 5/1 with various bookmakers.  Though it doesn't beat Betfair, his place price should probably be way shorter than the evens on offer.  Even if the two 3 year olds do turn out to be exceptional, then we get the strong chance of our money back on the place.

Suggest £50 e/w on Declaration of War (1/5 first 3) in the Sussex.  You should probably split it over at least a couple of bookmakers.  The following all offer the price and the same each way terms (PP, bet365, sky, tote/betfred, BetVictor and Coral).

Morning Mr Doobs.

As of right now, DoW is 6/1, not 5/1.

Afte some intense calculations, I have established that 6/1 beats 5/1, however, before I proceed to place the suggested bet, I'm curious as to why DoW may have drifted overnight, & in the light of this, wonder whether you still wish to proceed?

I'll be offline in an hour or so, & if we do intend to get on DoW, I'd like to do so before then.

The back money seems to have nearly gone on Betfair, which is worrying.  Think you should postpone the bet for now.  Good luck at the weekend.

[tikay]

Quick warning, going to be out of routine over the next few days as I am SPTing at DTD. Daily reports at odd hours and spreadsheet updated less frequently. Will get to it when I can

I shall also have intermittent & sporadic availability all weekend, starting this morning, so please can you post your recommends up as early as possible between now, & Monday morning.

Thank you.