Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Stensons my pick

I'd also say betfair is no way ever going to be as accurate for something like a golf tournament with so many runners- compared to nearly any football game or something like that- particularly when we are talking 100+ runners and especially those priced 66/1+. Whilst it may look "properly formed" it's basically formed on the basis of a relatively small number of peoples opinions. Keith Elliott/racing post etc have the power to move the rags by 40 points. The shorter the price the more likely it's close to correct but I think it's optimistic to think that if bf is 140 and we can get 150/1 someone that means it's now a must bet even with an extra place. Even when we are right our ev is absolute pennies and in that list there are 2 injured golfers whose price should probably be doubled. Also the shorter the price the bigger the ev on extra place. If someone is 27 to lay on bf solid and we can get 33/1 with an extra place it's a bet but we still are talking small amount in ev unless we believe the market is wrong and he should be sub 20/1 which I'm basically saying it can be in golf.

Cliffs- any above average golf judge>>>>>>>>>betting blind based on tiny indiscrepancies compared to bf      

[Tal]

Chess World Cup starts on Sunday. It's an individual competition, with a predetermined, seeded draw.

If anyone finds a market that isn't 180%, feel free to let me know. Have had four bets myself because I'm an ice cream but won't recommend anything for Fred unless there is obvious value.

As I know you are a visual lot, here is the draw in Technicolor:

Click to see full-size image.

[ripple11]

Just looking through the bets on offer for tonight T20 quarter final live on Sky....and came across batsmans "no. of 4's and 6's bets".... I haven't noticed before.

Of those on offer with Ladbrokes, Michael Carberry is in fantastic form at the moment, in T20. He opens the innings and looks to go hard from the start to maximise the the first 6 over fielding restrictions. If he's in for at least 4/5 overs , I would expect the following bets to be achieved :

 4's over 2.5 is 10/11
6's over 0.5 is  11/10

Thoughts from others?.

[TightEnd]

Just looking through the bets on offer for tonight T20 quarter final live on Sky....and came across batsmans "no. of 4's and 6's bets".... I haven't noticed before.

Of those on offer with Ladbrokes, Michael Carberry is in fantastic form at the moment, in T20. He opens the innings and looks to go hard from the start to maximise the the first 6 over fielding restrictions. If he's in for at least 4/5 overs , I would expect the following bets to be achieved :

 4's over 2.5 is 10/11
6's over 0.5 is  11/10

Thoughts from others?.

Obviously there is the risk he will get out early to someone like Mitchell McLenaghan

If he makes it through the powerplay then both should be achieved. I particularly like the 4's bet because that can be achieved with the help of edges/mishits etc with only two men outside the circle. ie beat the ring if third man and fine leg are up and you are in business

[bobby1]

Stensons my pick

I'd also say betfair is no way ever going to be as accurate for something like a golf tournament with so many runners- compared to nearly any football game or something like that- particularly when we are talking 100+ runners and especially those priced 66/1+. Whilst it may look "properly formed" it's basically formed on the basis of a relatively small number of peoples opinions. Keith Elliott/racing post etc have the power to move the rags by 40 points. The shorter the price the more likely it's close to correct but I think it's optimistic to think that if bf is 140 and we can get 150/1 someone that means it's now a must bet even with an extra place. Even when we are right our ev is absolute pennies and in that list there are 2 injured golfers whose price should probably be doubled. Also the shorter the price the bigger the ev on extra place. If someone is 27 to lay on bf solid and we can get 33/1 with an extra place it's a bet but we still are talking small amount in ev unless we believe the market is wrong and he should be sub 20/1 which I'm basically saying it can be in golf.

Cliffs- any above average golf judge>>>>>>>>>betting blind based on tiny indiscrepancies compared to bf      

basically this and this again imo. Thread has had 10 ish bets by just looking at BF and picking runners at fixed odds close to their BF price. I laid one player at 40 odd last week who isn't fully fit, he has hovered between 50 and 55 with a bit of 60 thrown in on BF. We've been thru this before but If you had looked at BF when he was 50 and he was 50/1 with the books he would have been a bet, if you looked when he was 60 on BF he probably wouldn't. If he has drifted from 40 odd to touching 60 and one fixed odds firm puts up 60/1 he is probably going to be a fixed odds bet for Fred but takes no account of why he is now 60/1 from 40 odd to one last week. no injury factor, no weather or draw.

Really it's just a way of having bets on big events if you don't really follow those events but want to have bets, again it's all old ground but one guy has had 10 bets early in the week. Has anyone else had a bet/ put one up?

edit. I've now seen the bets you have, one of them is a player with injury doubts. A few of them have drifted on BF in the last few days. If you were picking a list of ten players now by looking at BF and making fixed odds selections you would have a different list.

edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.

[LeedsRhodesy]

Bradford City vs Carlisle   (sat 10th August)

Bradford play Carlisle on Saturday at home, after picking up an 2-2 at Bristol last week and Carlisle getting beat 5-1 at home i really do fancy our chances to score 2/3 goals on Saturday!
my bet will be for Rory McArdle to score anytime at 8/1 or small bet on FG at 25/1
We have been working on set pieces for a long time now and that's the main reason we knocked, Arsenal an villa out the cups, Goals coming from a set piece
In the last two league games  Rory McArdle has scored from a set piece bristol, and in the league cup final
He comes up for all corners and free kicks so is always in the action

[Sheriff Fatman]

Take a good look at that Memorial Ground picture. The land has been sold to Sainsbury's.

Apparently, the stadium was built on an area of land called Buffalo Bill's Field, previously occupied by allotments.

Thank you, Wikipedia.

I wonder how many other sports stadia there are (or were....) where all or some of the land has been sold to Sainsbury's or Tesco?

Pretty sure I can think of 4 or 5 off the top of my head.

PS - Slough Greyhound Stadium, RIP.

Not quite Sainburys or Tescos but surely the most unique example of something like this was at Burnden Park in the early-mid 90s, when Bolton sold off part of their land to the Normid Supermarket.

The unique aspect of this being that it included part of the old terrace, so the supermarket actually became a part of the ground.  The bit that was left was where the away fans used to be allocated and it was a fairly bizarre experience to view from that stand!

[doubleup]

edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.

The bets are 60/40 weather balanced - I taught doobs all he knows about golf weather 

[DungBeetle]

Great photo of Burnden Park there.  How I miss old grounds with their random non uniform stands.  Would be such a shame if all clubs had the newly built ones like Cardiff/Leicester/Northampton etc.

[tikay]

Great photo of Burnden Park there.  How I miss old grounds with their random non uniform stands.  Would be such a shame if all clubs had the newly built ones like Cardiff/Leicester/Northampton etc.

You like old football grounds, such as Burnden Park?

Here you go then. Come back when you have finished perusing this little lot, which will be about Sunday week.....

Sheriff & Tighty will enjoy these, too.



http://www.footballgroundguide.com/old-grounds-and-stands/

[bobby1]

edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.

The bets are 60/40 weather balanced - I taught doobs all he knows about golf weather 

Then you will probably get roughly 50% of them in the better conditions if there is a bias  

It would be easy to make that figure higher by taking that info into account.

If players that have been backed at 150/1 that are 230 on BF are considered value how much should we be having on Dufner right now at 35/1 a 1/4 the first 7 when he is now 38 on BF. Even if we easily justify that bet from a maths point of view are we going to still want it when there is a more solid fcast to work from?

If you looked at the BF list now and were picking ten selections to bet each way fixed odds using the BF list he is right at the top yet he isn't one of the players that were right at the top 2 days ago when the bets were placed. I'm afraid It is just random time related bet picking.

[DungBeetle]

Great website - unfortunately I have already had the pleasure.   Wasted nearly an entire day looking at that site once!

Have great memories of being on delapidated terraces at Manor Ground, Elm Park and Burnden Park.  Some of my earliest memories of live football.  I used to love Filbert Street as well.

[doubleup]

edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.

The bets are 60/40 weather balanced - I taught doobs all he knows about golf weather 

Then you will probably get roughly 50% of them in the better conditions if there is a bias  

It would be easy to make that figure higher by taking that info into account.

If players that have been backed at 150/1 that are 230 on BF are considered value how much should we be having on Dufner right now at 35/1 a 1/4 the first 7 when he is now 38 on BF. Even if we easily justify that bet from a maths point of view are we going to still want it when there is a more solid fcast to work from?

If you looked at the BF list now and were picking ten selections to bet each way fixed odds using the BF list he is right at the top yet he isn't one of the players that were right at the top 2 days ago when the bets were placed. I'm afraid It is just random time related bet picking.

I actually think doobs method is sound - mainly because of the place ev.  Probably just needs a bit of adjustment eg maybe a maximum price as the lower prices are more reliable and prob leave the bets a bit closer to the event.

btw what do you think of the sterne top SA bet - I'm just a bit concerned that VC don't seem to give a toss about taking all the money on him as they haven't moved the price.

 

[TightEnd]

Great photo of Burnden Park there.  How I miss old grounds with their random non uniform stands.  Would be such a shame if all clubs had the newly built ones like Cardiff/Leicester/Northampton etc.

You like old football grounds, such as Burnden Park?

Here you go then. Come back when you have finished perusing this little lot, which will be about Sunday week.....

Sheriff & Tighty will enjoy these, too.



http://www.footballgroundguide.com/old-grounds-and-stands/

I'm busy, please stop

p.s Dung

Facebook group "Lost Football grounds of England, Wales and Scotland". Personal pics of old grounds from 5,000 members. Join, write off a few days, and enjoy....

[tikay]

Great photo of Burnden Park there.  How I miss old grounds with their random non uniform stands.  Would be such a shame if all clubs had the newly built ones like Cardiff/Leicester/Northampton etc.

You like old football grounds, such as Burnden Park?

Here you go then. Come back when you have finished perusing this little lot, which will be about Sunday week.....

Sheriff & Tighty will enjoy these, too.



http://www.footballgroundguide.com/old-grounds-and-stands/

I'm busy, please stop

p.s Dung

Facebook group "Lost Football grounds of England, Wales and Scotland". Personal pics of old grounds from 5,000 members. Join, write off a few days, and enjoy....

Ha! Knew you'd enjoy that.....