Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Some confusion in the press about whether it is a health issue or a financial one.  Think one of his companies had some heavy losses recently.

What players amongst them are likely to find their way to the UK, and who might buy them?

[horseplayer]

Some confusion in the press about whether it is a health issue or a financial one.  Think one of his companies had some heavy losses recently.

What players amongst them are likely to find their way to the UK, and who might buy them?

'arry might buy samba (again!)

Willian would be the main target i can see Levy licking his lips already considering they nearly bought him before he went to Anzhi for 30 million

Personally i would like to see a side take a chance on Traoré a big gangly striker but bags of potential

[DungBeetle]

My guess would be William.  Wasn't he wanted by Chelsea last year when he was at Shaktar?  Samba maybe.  Eto'o will end up at Monaco/PSG I'd imagine.

[BigAdz]

A line that I am sure most of you golf bettors may adopt anyway.

When backing the rags on Betty, I always retain half my designated stake, as regardless of how well they start their prices remain fairly close to starting price after round one, and I get the chance to save the other half stake on those that have played below expectations.

As for selections, from a form/record in event/type of player etc. I think Stenson is a cracker, and Poulter also has a real solid profile in Majors recently, and made the cut in the last 10 PGAs

All the reports I see are the greens are very rough which should balance things out, and Dufner with a couple of places in recent PGAs and playing ok is not the best putter, so could help him.

Johnson again fits the profile, but not for me. I think Fred will have some goooooood sweats over the next few days

FWIW I have had a small dabble on Chris Wood. I just fancy his strong showing last week, and his proving to himself he can play at the top table, may prove to be a big stepping stone for him. Whether it manifests itslef with another performance this week time will tell but a few bob at 360 on betty.

[Doobs]

You are wrong on the more likely to win than come second for people between 33/1 and 100/1 IMO. I was actually the person that posted about the theory you are talking about and it was mainly about woods. Massive difference between him and someone like Westwood, Day, etc

You said  "Also the shorter the price the bigger the ev on extra place", which just isn't right.  

The bigger the price the more likely they are to be 8th than 1st,  Woods will have a downward sloping graph from 1st to 8th and it is obvious why (he can't be 9/2 for each position).  I expect those less than about 33s will also be downward sloping.  Those in the middle should be something close to flat.  I think it must be obvious those at the top will be more likely 8th than 1st, and I expect that will be more than enough to balance Woods, Mickelson and Scott etc.  So don't think there can be much wrong with assuming the middle is likely to be flat.  I would be interested in seeing the real stats though.

FWIW The place market on Betfair seems to reflect my way of thinking.

More importantly, who are the injury doubts?

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

That one!

[hector62]

I have read about Stricker having a dodgy hamstring from skiing.

[Doobs]

I have read about Stricker having a dodgy hamstring from skiing.

Thanks.  Found it now.  It seems he played OK last week on a dodgy hamstring, or is that straw clutching?

[redarmi]

You are wrong on the more likely to win than come second for people between 33/1 and 100/1 IMO. I was actually the person that posted about the theory you are talking about and it was mainly about woods. Massive difference between him and someone like Westwood, Day, etc

You said  "Also the shorter the price the bigger the ev on extra place", which just isn't right.  

The bigger the price the more likely they are to be 8th than 1st,  Woods will have a downward sloping graph from 1st to 8th and it is obvious why (he can't be 9/2 for each position).  I expect those less than about 33s will also be downward sloping.  Those in the middle should be something close to flat.  I think it must be obvious those at the top will be more likely 8th than 1st, and I expect that will be more than enough to balance Woods, Mickelson and Scott etc.  So don't think there can be much wrong with assuming the middle is likely to be flat.  I would be interested in seeing the real stats though.

FWIW The place market on Betfair seems to reflect my way of thinking.

More importantly, who are the injury doubts?

Whilst I think this is true about Woods "graph" he is also much, much less likely to miss the cut than the other players so his "graph" is still much more weighted to the top positions than other players so whilst I think you are probably right that he is less likely, in relations to his price, to come 6th, 7th and 8th than say Donald but I am not sure that difference is anything tangible enough to make a real difference to betting when we are getting so many more places.  They are still going to be +EV for almost every player in the field if you can get the "right" price

[hector62]

His hamstring has not stopped me backing him for top 20 finish, I feel he is smart enough and of an age to know not to play injured.

[tikay]

Just looking through the bets on offer for tonight T20 quarter final live on Sky....and came across batsmans "no. of 4's and 6's bets".... I haven't noticed before.

Of those on offer with Ladbrokes, Michael Carberry is in fantastic form at the moment, in T20. He opens the innings and looks to go hard from the start to maximise the the first 6 over fielding restrictions. If he's in for at least 4/5 overs , I would expect the following bets to be achieved :

 4's over 2.5 is 10/11
6's over 0.5 is  11/10

Thoughts from others?.

Hi Nick,

Does not seem to be much interest in tonight's T20 thing, but I like this bet, & we have modestly speculated.

We have £22 @ 10/11, Carberry to score OVER 2.5 x 4's, & £20 @ 11/10, Carberry to score one six or more, both with Ladbrokes.

ON


07/08/2013 0000371 Over/Under 1  £22.00   Hampshire v Lancashire No. of fours - M Carberry  Over +2.5 10/11   
0000372 Over/Under 1  £20.00   Hampshire v Lancashire No. of sixes - M Carberry  Over +0.5 11/10   

[horseplayer]

Tikay early one for Southwell tommorow night

VEEECEEEE are 11-1 WINGED ICARUS SUGGEST £20 WIN in the 6.30 SOUTHWELL

Won very easily on only start for current trainer here, not shown a lot since but could develop into a southwell specialist. This is a decent contest for the grade but 11-1 looks a few points to big to me

[tikay]

Tikay early one for Southwell tommorow night

VEEECEEEE are 11-1 WINGED ICARUS SUGGEST £20 WIN in the 6.30 SOUTHWELL

Won very easily on only start for current trainer here, not shown a lot since but could develop into a southwell specialist. This is a decent contest for the grade but 11-1 looks a few points to big to me

Thanks horsey.

We are on, details to follow in the morning.

We have £20 @ 11/1, BetVictor, Winged Icarus, 6.30 Southwell, Thursday.

ON

[Chompy]

£25 each-way Presburg, 3.50 Brighton, 12/1 Hillbillies

I make him a 6/1 shot and this price is crazy. His course win in May has worked out well and he's had excuses since, meeting traffic and then finding a slow pace against him in two starts at Sandown. This is a bit easier, the ground has come right and his trainer is 7-28 at the course.

Pretty sure Laddies' 7/1 about Edwyn Ralph in the same race will also beat the price but the fast ground puts me off him a bit.

[BigAdz]

£25 each-way Presburg, 3.50 Brighton, 12/1 Hillbillies

I make him a 6/1 shot and this price is crazy. His course win in May has worked out well and he's had excuses since, meeting traffic and then finding a slow pace against him in two starts at Sandown. This is a bit easier, the ground has come right and his trainer is 7-28 at the course.

Pretty sure Laddies' 7/1 about Edwyn Ralph in the same race will also beat the price but the fast ground puts me off him a bit.

Must admit I thought it was big.

Twas the Sinsai tip when it won, was it not?