Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Yuh, all good on the BB front.

Hazel got the boot, which is good news for Gina. The pair have been ripping each other apart for days. We want happy Gina back for the run-in.

Dexter got a mixed reaction when his name was called but is into around 6/4 for top man. Sam eased a bit and Gina back in to 7/4. It all finishes in nine days but it's looking like they could go straight into another Celeb BB. Excellent news all round.

Starts again soon?

Yes indeed, excellent news. Like the onset of piles.

NINE more days? NINE??

[TightEnd]

Can I get a Tighty Treble for the footy please?

I put some up on the Nits thread, underdodg away teams I thought were overpriced

Any three or perms of

Barnsley
Burnley
Crawley
Newport

add QPR at 6/4

Newport have come in from over 3/1 to 2/1 in 48 hours to win at Northampton!

[bobby1]

Back to the golf then.

We have a ton of good sweats, but that does not include Sterne, for Top South Aftica Bloke, who looks like he will miss the cut.

Sweats

Furyk is now -7 and 14/1 (from 70/1 at the start)
Kuchar is -7 and 15/2 (from 33/1)
Stricker is -5 and 28/1 (from 50/1)
Garcia is -3 and still around 55/1, which is where he started
That is 4 of the top 10 in the betting
Of the others
Casey is -1 and 200/1 (from 150/1)
Jimenez, Moore and Matsuyama are on evens and monster prices, English is +3 and even bigger.
Watson and Sterne missed the cut.

No hole in one as yet.

Team Maths have 9 of the first 10 in the betting, unfortunately Duffner is the missing one.  

Doobs,

Do you run the spready and re bet or bet new players after round one or are your bets all pre game?

Reason I ask is I have been mulling thru the convo on timing of bets and came to the conclusion that maybe betting players after round one using your system when the field that can win in is smaller and some firms are still betting 5 places. That is a spot that some of the firms are still trying to be very close to the BF prices.

Just looking thru the top of the board now from memory Dufner was about a 25 chance with the books and around 28/29 on BF, Kuchar was available at 20/1 fixed odds when 22 on BF, Furyk was 14/1 after round one and around 17 on BF. Scott 9/2 and 5.7/5.8. Rose 18/1 when 19.5 ish, Stenny about 20/1 when just bigger on BF, Westy was 8/1 and 9.6, Tiger 12 and 12, Mickelson 28/1 and 32 can't remember Rory, Day was 20/1 and about that and even lower profile players such as Garrigus and Hearn up near the top were still pretty close to the BF price when 5 places still available. The bigger names like Donald Poulter Schwarts etc that are a little off the pace are still v close to BF too.

Is that a spot that is better to exploit when 5 places available rather than 6 places for a full field before the off. Did you run the math at that stage please?

[BigAdz]

A line that I am sure most of you golf bettors may adopt anyway.

When backing the rags on Betty, I always retain half my designated stake, as regardless of how well they start their prices remain fairly close to starting price after round one, and I get the chance to save the other half stake on those that have played below expectations.

As for selections, from a form/record in event/type of player etc. I think Stenson is a cracker, and Poulter also has a real solid profile in Majors recently, and made the cut in the last 10 PGAs

All the reports I see are the greens are very rough which should balance things out, and Dufner with a couple of places in recent PGAs and playing ok is not the best putter, so could help him.

Johnson again fits the profile, but not for me. I think Fred will have some goooooood sweats over the next few days

FWIW I have had a small dabble on Chris Wood. I just fancy his strong showing last week, and his proving to himself he can play at the top table, may prove to be a big stepping stone for him. Whether it manifests itslef with another performance this week time will tell but a few bob at 360 on betty.

Sort of alluded to this the other day.......Just call me Leonardo.....

[anthonyl]

Derby 10/3

We are missing a lot of players through injury.

- Bruno (First choice rb)
- Chicksen (first choice lb)
- Bridcutt (best dm in champ)
- Orlandi, our best attacking player
- CMS
- Hoskins

Bridcutt and orlandi only just been announced on twitter by our local paper so bookies won't have reacted

[Tal]

Getting a bit of stick from a friend after we had an enthused, gentlemanly debate about England's bowling selection yesterday. I was convinced Onions in for Broad was the best policy, as Bresnan's length was more suited to Durham. He would have dropped the Yorkshireman.

I've told him he shouldn't be results oriented and that this is just a sample size of one.

He's not having it.

[Doobs]

Back to the golf then.

We have a ton of good sweats, but that does not include Sterne, for Top South Aftica Bloke, who looks like he will miss the cut.

Sweats

Furyk is now -7 and 14/1 (from 70/1 at the start)
Kuchar is -7 and 15/2 (from 33/1)
Stricker is -5 and 28/1 (from 50/1)
Garcia is -3 and still around 55/1, which is where he started
That is 4 of the top 10 in the betting
Of the others
Casey is -1 and 200/1 (from 150/1)
Jimenez, Moore and Matsuyama are on evens and monster prices, English is +3 and even bigger.
Watson and Sterne missed the cut.

No hole in one as yet.

Team Maths have 9 of the first 10 in the betting, unfortunately Duffner is the missing one.  

Doobs,

Do you run the spready and re bet or bet new players after round one or are your bets all pre game?

Reason I ask is I have been mulling thru the convo on timing of bets and came to the conclusion that maybe betting players after round one using your system when the field that can win in is smaller and some firms are still betting 5 places. That is a spot that some of the firms are still trying to be very close to the BF prices.

Just looking thru the top of the board now from memory Dufner was about a 25 chance with the books and around 28/29 on BF, Kuchar was available at 20/1 fixed odds when 22 on BF, Furyk was 14/1 after round one and around 17 on BF. Scott 9/2 and 5.7/5.8. Rose 18/1 when 19.5 ish, Stenny about 20/1 when just bigger on BF, Westy was 8/1 and 9.6, Tiger 12 and 12, Mickelson 28/1 and 32 can't remember Rory, Day was 20/1 and about that and even lower profile players such as Garrigus and Hearn up near the top were still pretty close to the BF price when 5 places still available. The bigger names like Donald Poulter Schwarts etc that are a little off the pace are still v close to BF too.

Is that a spot that is better to exploit when 5 places available rather than 6 places for a full field before the off. Did you run the math at that stage please?

I just run things when I can.  I was up late, woken early the day before, so didn't have the energy/time for it after day 1.  As I alluded to before, it isn't just a press a button thing.  I have to do a lot of updates and moving things around manually as I am not that great at grabbing data from the Internet.  As these things are always a bit of a one off, I am not sure it is better to try and improve it. 

As I didn't look, I don't really know if it was better after day 1.  I did look this morning and it was mostly a fifth first 4, which didn't look very appetising.  I know I did something similar after day 2 or 3 of the Masters and the each way terms looked good at the time and it worked really well.  So I don't think there can be a general right answer, it just depends on the terms offered and shape of the field/betting. 

I remember you mentioning Dufner before day 1 and I thought I am sure he'd be good at the prices you mentioned.  Of course after I'd put the kids to bed, played poker for the evening etc, the Bookies had shortened a bit/Betfair had drifted a bit and he didn't look so good. 

I guess the lesson is just bet when you see the opportunity, whenever it is.

Silly moaning about missing one though, I have the rest right now, and maybe I can cover if he looks close to value on day 4.

[BigAdz]

After 2 races Monsieur Mosse has been "close but no cigar" twice now.

He is in 2nd place with 17pts, 1 behind the leader

He has ridden the....ahem.....first two favourites...

Come on the Skies!!!!!

[Doobs]

Hopefully it won't end in tragedy, but Hills Mobile £25 on Steps at 3/1.

[Doobs]

After 2 races Monsieur Mosse has been "close but no cigar" twice now.

He is in 2nd place with 17pts, 1 behind the leader

He has ridden the....ahem.....first two favourites...

Come on the Skies!!!!!

Gets a guaranteed 4 in the next.  Go the Mosse.

[Marky147]

After 2 races Monsieur Mosse has been "close but no cigar" twice now.

He is in 2nd place with 17pts, 1 behind the leader

He has ridden the....ahem.....first two favourites...

Come on the Skies!!!!!

Have to hope James Doyle misteps in the next!

[Doobs]

After 2 races Monsieur Mosse has been "close but no cigar" twice now.

He is in 2nd place with 17pts, 1 behind the leader

He has ridden the....ahem.....first two favourites...

Come on the Skies!!!!!

Have to hope James Doyle misteps in the next!

Looking for places 5,6,7,8?

[BigAdz]

Steps a horse I have followed, will be funking a fail this time.

Mosse 4 pts a bonus, Jiroft not looked a good horse.

[Doobs]

Steps a horse I have followed, will be funking a fail this time.

Mosse 4 pts a bonus, Jiroft not looked a good horse.

Mosse horse shorter than Doyle's and Moriera's in the next. 

Can't believe I am funking during the Shergar Cup with a load of terrible Steps songs in my head.

[Marky147]

Steps a horse I have followed, will be funking a fail this time.

Mosse 4 pts a bonus, Jiroft not looked a good horse.

Mosse horse shorter than Doyle's and Moriera's in the next. 

Can't believe I am funking during the Shergar Cup with a load of terrible Steps songs in my head.

Winner please Gerald!