Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

LOL.  Total error from me. got decimal place in wrong place when I looked, but it was the steamer of the day.

[tikay]

Sorry to interrupt your golf sweat guys but hopefully Fred is going to be feeling flush

Suggested bet £70 on Rooney to stay at United this transfer window @ 2.2 with Unibet and 888. (I've backed it as low as 1.9)

The price on him to Chelsea is all wrong. Chelsea appear only half serious in their bid for him but have fully succeeded in upsetting the apple cart at Old Trafford. Also United cannot sell a top star to a domestic rival.

On a similar note I'd also take £40 on Bale to stay at Spurs whilst there's 3.0+ available on Betfair.

Morning Mr McGlashan.

We do badly in transfer markets, & with good reason - the bookies have almost always got access to better info than we have, & are a step ahead of us. We've never made money in such Markets, & we won't be having many bets, ever.

But.....

I love this bet, & I'll tell you why.

There are three hot transfer Markets at present - Bale, Suarez, & Rooney.

Bale

Mr Levy knows the value of money. Bale is the hottest available property in world football right now, or nearly so. Only the likes of Messi & Ronaldo would command more interesty. He is a true Trophy asset, in every sense. Spurs, with respect, are a "fringe" team in the Premier League. He will go, but we know not when.

Suarez

The smoke signals are confusing.

We will not sell him, do you hear us? We will ESPECIALLY not sell him to Arsenal.

How do you read that? See the conflict in those two statements? Seems pretty clear to me. He's available.

But when? No idea.

Rooney

Moyes seemed unequivical yesterday.

We are not selling him.

That was it. They don't need the money. Unlike Arsenal, they are happy to live on borrowed money, despite their fans bitching non-stop about the Glaziers.

They are the most successful side in England, arguably Europe.

So my money is on him staying at United.

Now comes the problem - I don't have accounts with 888 or Unibet. The best price I can get elsewhere 10/11, with Wm Hill.

So, at what price does this cease to be value?

If I can set up an account with 888 or Unibet I'll take the 2.2 if it is still there, but I don't really want to deposit money there only to find the price has gone. 

Bear with me please, whilst I try & sort an Account, & get some of that 2.2.

If I can't, we have to decide if 10/11 is good enough. I think it is, but I loathe the thought of taking a worse price with Wm Hill than elsewhere.

Afternoon Tikay.

That 10/11 with Hills is now a stand out best price and worthy of an investment whilst it lasts. It's also a price I backed myself due to being restricted at firms who were offering better odds.

 If Fred has a bad record in transfer dealings can we assume he has been backing these transfers to actually happen?

The bet is ON, thanks. Hot topic, this one, but I have my own views, too (unusually) so I'm going with it.

Our previous history in the transfer market? Yes, mostly "to leave", but we swerve most of them, I just think these Markets are usually terrible value, & if we do find a nice one, we get severely Restricted. Generally, of course, the markets are ultra thin, but I guess this one is a bit bigger - everyone has a view.

One or two of our lads backed Kenny Jackett in the Managers Market, I think.

Anyways, we have £66 @ 10/11, Wm Hill, Rooney to still be a Man U player on September 3rd.

ON

12 Aug 13 / 14:29

Stake

Wayne Rooney's Club on 3rd Sept 2013 – Man Utd @ 10/11

- £66.00

O/0457483/0000515/F

[Dubai]

Think Montsho is a good thing in women's 400 later, basically she is fastest in field and in what looks a two horse race Ohurugou tends to come from behind which is surely harder in a final particularly when your main competitor is faster than you. Think the race will be over before she gets going and surely 4/7 is only the result of the media trying to make it out to be more of a race than it actually is. Looks 1/3 to me

[JaffaCake]

Ha, was coming on to discuss laying these Aussies, nice opening partnership but we'd nip one out soon enough and hopefully inspire a collapse. Was just reading Adam's filure to be able to read properly and was one post away. This number 3 ain't no test batsman....anti-bok time...

[tikay]

Think Montsho is a good thing in women's 400 later, basically she is fastest in field and in what looks a two horse race Ohurugou tends to come from behind which is surely harder in a final particularly when your main competitor is faster than you. Think the race will be over before she gets going and surely 4/7 is only the result of the media trying to make it out to be more of a race than it actually is. Looks 1/3 to me

Thanks Mr Pick & Place To Suit Yourself.

Missed the 4/7, but if you think it is a 1/3 shot, then 1.55 must be OK, I hope.

What time is the race, anyone know?

We have £55 @ 1.55, BWin, Montsho, 400 Metres Lady Running Race.

ON

Type of bet
Bet slip ID
Date
Total stake
Possible winnings
Single bet
1T2PNZYAPB
8/12/2013 5:31 PM
55.00 GBP
 85.25 GBP  

8/12/2013 7:15:00 PM  OPEN   IAAF World Championships - Moscow (RUS) - Women 400 Metres Outright winner  Montsho ?  1.55  

[tikay]

Unless I am hallucinating, there was another Athletics bet, by Adzy, but it seems to have disappeared.

[redarmi]

Think Montsho is a good thing in women's 400 later, basically she is fastest in field and in what looks a two horse race Ohurugou tends to come from behind which is surely harder in a final particularly when your main competitor is faster than you. Think the race will be over before she gets going and surely 4/7 is only the result of the media trying to make it out to be more of a race than it actually is. Looks 1/3 to me

Thanks Mr Pick & Place To Suit Yourself.

Missed the 4/7, but if you think it is a 1/3 shot, then 1.55 must be OK, I hope.

What time is the race, anyone know?

We have £55 @ 6/1.55, BWin, Montsho, 400 Metres Lady Running Race.

ON

Type of bet
Bet slip ID
Date
Total stake
Possible winnings
Single bet
1T2PNZYAPB
8/12/2013 5:31 PM
55.00 GBP
 85.25 GBP 

8/12/2013 7:15:00 PM  OPEN   IAAF World Championships - Moscow (RUS) - Women 400 Metres Outright winner  Montsho ?  1.55 

115pm in Jamaica so 715pm there I think.

[tikay]

Lovely Stu, thanks.

[BigAdz]

Unless I am hallucinating, there was another Athletics bet, by Adzy, but it seems to have disappeared.

Yup, I meant to modify but pressed delete....guess it was fate!

[tikay]

We have a Chompy Special in the 5pm Ayr, Kashmir Peak, @ 5/2.

It was generally 6/4 or 13/8 earlier, but it is on the drift now, 2/1 generally.

[tikay]

We have a Chompy Special in the 5pm Ayr, Kashmir Peak, @ 5/2.

It was generally 6/4 or 13/8 earlier, but it is on the drift now, 2/1 generally.

We were beaten by Spirit of the Law, amongst others, which I think we backed at Goodwood.

We need that Athletics bet, and The Milkman's Tennis bet to oblige now.

Swanny has got a wicket, so that's handy.

[Bad Beat]

Bit late to post but you should have time. Have been looking at the Windsor 5.40pm. It is definitely a 4-horse race.

 Don't know much about Excellent Royale but it is unraced Charlie Hills. Has a Mill Reef (Group one) entry but gonna presume it wouldn't be 14/1 in this weak race if it was going to win.

 Zawiyah is Luca Cumani and it was given a pretty bad ride by Fallon (followed instructions?) when it missed the break and dropped in out the back before finishing quite well after not getting a run. Some friends of mine are suggesting it's an each-way bet and I expect money for it but it could be one for a nursery and it may need further.

 Merletta comes from the Noseda stable and it has Ryan Moore on. The Noseda horses always come on for the run but the form is nothing special and it just seems quite short. Pulled a bit 1st time.

 I'm backing Andrew Balding's horse Zampa Manos. Another stable who's horses improve for a run and the form of it's debut at Salisbury looks good. Stable not really about gambling and his horses are often overpriced in my opinion.

 Suggest decent ew bet at 11/1 with VC.

 Would happily take 10/1 btw (now 10 with VC and PP). (in fact would take 8/1, can see this being a great bet).

[tikay]

Bit late to post but you should have time. Have been looking at the Windsor 5.40pm. It is definitely a 4-horse race.

 Don't know much about Excellent Royale but it is unraced Charlie Hills. Has a Mill Reef (Group one) entry but gonna presume it wouldn't be 14/1 in this weak race if it was going to win.

 Zawiyah is Luca Cumani and it was given a pretty bad ride by Fallon (followed instructions?) when it missed the break and dropped in out the back before finishing quite well after not getting a run. Some friends of mine are suggesting it's an each-way bet and I expect money for it but it could be one for a nursery and it may need further.

 Merletta comes from the Noseda stable and it has Ryan Moore on. The Noseda horses always come on for the run but the form is nothing special and it just seems quite short. Pulled a bit 1st time.

 I'm backing Andrew Balding's horse Zampa Manos. Another stable who's horses improve for a run and the form of it's debut at Salisbury looks good. Stable not really about gambling and his horses are often overpriced in my opinion.

 Suggest decent ew bet at 11/1 with VC.

 Would happily take 10/1 btw (now 10 with VC and PP). (in fact would take 8/1, can see this being a great bet).

Thank you Neil.

The price is jumping around a lot.

It was 10/1 when I first tried BetVictor, so I took £25 EW @ 10/1.

The moment I took it, it eased back to 11/1, so I had the same bet again, this time @ 11/1.

Moments later, it was 8/1 everywhere.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/windsor/17:40/winner

So the question is, how much is a "good bet"?

I'm happy to take one of the two bets off-thread if £50 EW is deemed too much, but we need a decision within 8 minutes.....

We ARE ON though, for, at worst, £25 EW @ 10/1.

[tikay]

Neil's race (5.40 Windsor) is Live on ATR, in 5 minutes time.

[TightEnd]

"can see this being a great bet" says the edit

£50 ew seems applicable