Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Queally has ridden him before and statistically and probably in reality is the better jockey. Certainly got much more experience at this level.

See Linfoot's pick last weekend (Definightly) is running in the same race.

[Waz1892]

Liverpool/Tottenham - the so called live outsiders are both likely to lose their star players in Suarez and Bale.  Even if they don't given both players seem to want to go it is hard to see them operating as effectively as before even if they stay and there has to be a chance they leave in January too.  Liverpool are, in my opinion, okay value to get relegated at 500/1.  Suarez was so far and away their most important player it is incredible.  They will play a captain that is declining at a huge rate of knots and possibly shouldn't be playing but he will not be dropped and will continue to have a huge influence at the club.

This is a wind-up yes?  And I've fallen for it I guess in replying?!

Without Suarez we've played 13 games, won 8 of them, losing only 2.  We've scored 24 goals in those 13 games, or 1.85 per game.  Gerrard is as influential as ever, slowly declining in his ability to get forward I'll agree, but by know means, "huge rate of knots".

Relegation - 500/1..."okay value"...like I say, I've clearly taken the bait...

[Marky147]

What do you think of 18/1 (1-4) about Suarez for top goalscorer?

[BigAdz]

Queally has ridden him before and statistically and probably in reality is the better jockey. Certainly got much more experience at this level.

See Linfoot's pick last weekend (Definightly) is running in the same race.

Linwho?

Saw that but partly why I went ew. Bet to nothing if he gets a clear passage I reckon. Its also about the only horse of O'Mearas yet to win this year!

Keep the faith Marky, we always get there in the end

[aaron1867]

Liverpool/Tottenham - the so called live outsiders are both likely to lose their star players in Suarez and Bale.  Even if they don't given both players seem to want to go it is hard to see them operating as effectively as before even if they stay and there has to be a chance they leave in January too.  Liverpool are, in my opinion, okay value to get relegated at 500/1.  Suarez was so far and away their most important player it is incredible.  They will play a captain that is declining at a huge rate of knots and possibly shouldn't be playing but he will not be dropped and will continue to have a huge influence at the club.

This is a wind-up yes?  And I've fallen for it I guess in replying?!

Without Suarez we've played 13 games, won 8 of them, losing only 2.  We've scored 24 goals in those 13 games, or 1.85 per game.  Gerrard is as influential as ever, slowly declining in his ability to get forward I'll agree, but by know means, "huge rate of knots".

Relegation - 500/1..."okay value"...like I say, I've clearly taken the bait...

You probably need to take your Liverpool tinted shades off.

[redarmi]

In that case I guess you have no confidence at all in the clubs management as they don't want to sell him for £40m and would rather cripple the club than sell him for that.  Gerrard will once again be the most overrated player in the EPL.  Side bet?  Even money.  You win if they finish in the top five and I win if they don't?  Anything up to £500.....

[Marky147]

Queally has ridden him before and statistically and probably in reality is the better jockey. Certainly got much more experience at this level.

See Linfoot's pick last weekend (Definightly) is running in the same race.

Linwho?

Saw that but partly why I went ew. Bet to nothing if he gets a clear passage I reckon. Its also about the only horse of O'Mearas yet to win this year!

Keep the faith Marky, we always get there in the end

Haha, obv I'm on regardless, and only noticed it whilst perusing the other runners.

On yours before Hugh and Segal, don't you worry about that

[rinswun]

I've a funny feeling Arsenal are going to take the full window to try and sign Suarez - no reason not to given he's banned til October anyway. I think it'll be fruitless and they'll then table 32million for an unsettled Rooney who's been tapped up by Walcott, Wishere and Gibbs on international duty. He then becomes the big transfer day signing and Arsenal compete for the title til March when they fall away and exit all cups and fade to 3rd.

[tikay]

I am not sure I have ever had a bet on the Premier League.  It is such a well developed market and locking your money up for the season when it can be rolled over many times over the course of the year isn't really my thing but this year I think I may have to have a go for a couple of reasons that I don't think are really being taken into consideration by the market.  Taking all the teams in turn:

Liverpool/Tottenham - the so called live outsiders are both likely to lose their star players in Suarez and Bale.  Even if they don't given both players seem to want to go it is hard to see them operating as effectively as before even if they stay and there has to be a chance they leave in January too.  Liverpool are, in my opinion, okay value to get relegated at 500/1.  Suarez was so far and away their most important player it is incredible.  They will play a captain that is declining at a huge rate of knots and possibly shouldn't be playing but he will not be dropped and will continue to have a huge influence at the club.

Man City - Seem to be pretty solid favourites to me but a lot of new players and a new manager adds a level of unpredictability.  They are probably the most settled team in the league (of the contenders) and are a rock solid favourite at 9/4ish.

Man Utd - For years they have been a team that have outperformed their stats to a huge extent.  To all of us that uses stat analysis they have been a team that have outperformed their talent and have scored more goals than their shots data suggested that they should.  I have come to the conclusion that there is only one reason for this.  Fergusons tactical nous.  This year they won't have that.  Moyes could be as good.  He probably won't be.  As a team they will be somewhat unsettled with the Rooney stuff and if they get off to a bad start it might not bode well.  I think they should be 4-1 shots.

Chelsea - The on/off thing with Rooney can't be helping Torres and if they don't get Rooney they are stuck with a striker that the manager probably doesn't fancy and who has never really got it done there.  Added to that are the negative influences of Terry and Lampard who are past their best.  This seems a no win situation for Mourinho.  He plays them and his team are weakened.  He tries to find a way to move them out and it will take so much time and energy it will distract and disrupt.  They obviously have a decent chance but I am not sure they are 9/4 shots.

Arsenal - They have got rid of the deadwood and potentially going to sign the best upgrade they can in Suarez and even if they don't they will likely sign someone to score goals.  They have Wilshere back and a lot of continuity and still one of the best managers in the league.  They struggled with injuries last year especially in defence where Kocielny, Mertersacker and Vermalen missed 48 games between them yet they still got in the CL.  They just seem massively solid to me and I just don't understand why they aren't 7/1 shots and 11/1 with the Magic sign seems very fair to me especially EW.  Also really like 15/8 to finish in the top 3 with Ladbrokes.  In fact of the bets I think I like that one the most.  I can't have them bigger than 11/8.

Love the clear and fresh thinking.  Thanks Stu.

To give me a feel for your confidence levels, what sort of stake would you recommend for the two Arsenal wagers, given Fred's usual staking levels?

[BigAdz]

In that case I guess you have no confidence at all in the clubs management as they don't want to sell him for £40m and would rather cripple the club than sell him for that.  Gerrard will once again be the most overrated player in the EPL.  Side bet?  Even money.  You win if they finish in the top five and I win if they don't?  Anything up to £500.....

Can't quite see it but thoroughly enjoyed putting a fiver on though. Ty

[Ant040689]

Dulwich Hamlet are 0-2 up away to Hendon. I bet the Boatman bros won't be happy with that!

[redarmi]

I would prefer the 15-8 rather than bet both I think.  Maybe £60.

[tikay]

I would prefer the 15-8 rather than bet both I think.  Maybe £60.

Thanks. We have exactly that, Arsenal Top Three with Ladbrokes, @ 15/8, or £60 staked.

Details in the morning.

ON

[Tal]

I would prefer the 15-8 rather than bet both I think.  Maybe £60.

Tikay was already saying he didn't want to lock up more money for a whole season, plus this is thin value, which is the opposing force for a lengthy bet.

Also, I don't want to be reading post after post for a whole season about how we are pleased that @r$€nil won.

[Tal]

I would prefer the 15-8 rather than bet both I think.  Maybe £60.

Thanks. We have exactly that, Arsenal Top Three with Ladbrokes, @ 15/8, or £60 staked.

Details in the morning.

ON

Bugger.

When can we green out?