Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Stewards in Stratford must have gone for a quick chianti at The Dirty Duck.

We continue to await the result...

[Dubai]

Roger multi- lays any bet u want, ring super strong at Romford so can withstand plenty of bottle and carpet arbers and return bigger than bf

[Tal]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOM

Camel, good shout: McCain says the oss is up for sale.

[The Camel]

Roger multi- lays any bet u want, ring super strong at Romford so can withstand plenty of bottle and carpet arbers and return bigger than bf

Bubbly Rocket SP 3/1 loads traded at 11/4 would have returned 9/4 at any other track, possibly 2/1 due to all the Paul Young winners with Ladbrokes shortening it up.

Love Romford.

[redarmi]

Morning Mr T.

I get a little depressed when you mention our ROI of around 3-4% as I feel with the expertise on offer and your astute stewardship it should be higher. I would like to think we should be able to achieve 10%. Anyway, I decided to compare the first 6 months of Fred  with the same 6 months a year later, to see if that could offer me some solace and to indicate that we are improving.

                                                 2012                                                             2013

                          TURNOVER           PROFIT/LOSS                               TURNOVER        PROFIT/LOSS

FEB                        1,795                  119                                            2,658                    801
MAR                       3,351                  188                                            4,107                 1,093
APR                        4,091                  793                                           5,026                 -1,231
MAY                       6,005                 -710                                           5,118                     615
JUN                        4,803                 -473                                           4,402                       24
JUL                        2,369                    88                                           2,675                     191

TOTAL                  22,414                   5                                              23,986                1,493

                                      ROI    almost 0 %                                                   ROI              6.2%

All in all I find the figures for this year to be quite pleasing and I think that the 10% is achieveable, especially if Gina can pull it off. Keep up the good work.

Ooh, I'm glad you posted that hector, because it was exercising my mind last night.

Is 4% good? Yes, to me, I think it is amazing, though I claim no credit, the profit is down to our regulars, & guidance from the Elders. But as I spent 30 years as a mug punter, losing money non-stop, 4% looks outstanding to me.

Is 10% achievable? No, I think that is way too optimistic. 5% is my initial goal, & I think we can achieve that, with what we have learned. Doing so without losing the fun aspect is difficult, though.

By way of mitigation, however.....

The exercise is not purely profit. Mostly, yes, but add in these factors....

1) Having a bit of fun at no cost. The word "fun" is key.

2) Some "blonde Community" aspects. Tighty & I, in particular, have a responsibility to try & make blonde a better Forum, & a place people enjoy visiting, & we both try very hard to do that, but sometimes it clashes with the notion of profit. All newbies get a "free first bet", for example, to encourage more to get involved. For what it is worth, this thread represents exactly what I always wanted blonde to be from day one. Sensible, adult debates, folks helping each other, & fun. morons gonna moron & that sort of childish nonsense has never figured here. 

3) Bad discipline on my part from time to time, yesterday being a good example. In the euphoria after that big win yesterday, I was, perhaps, a bit trigger happy with "fun bets" for example. I need to toughen up sometimes, but I don't find it easy to say "no", in a manner which does not give offence. People, not unreasonably, get very uppity when a recommend gets knocked back.

4)  Blind bets. Some regulars here get their bets put on "blind". I don't agree with many of them, but I know they know better than me.  It is, primarily, these "blind bets" that are most of our profit. I back a lot of them off-thread, too, but definitely not all of them. My dilemma arises when two Elders have a different view, but thats all part of it I suppose. I actually crap mysrlf when, say, Lord Grumpy, Doobsy, Camel, Chumpy, Phil, Dubai reds or whoever say "stick £100 on that". But that's the buzz, too.  I'm more a hector type at heart, "ooh, £20 @ 6/4 is plenty".

5) Mostly, of Fred, it is the fact that all these seasoned Elders & Pro Punters spend so much time helping us understand what is what. They don't need to educate us, but they do. What a thing that is, eh?

We should not forget how much admin work goes into it either, primarily by Mere & Tighty. At present, Mere is taking a well-deserved break, so the whole burden sits on Tighty's shoulders. I know he enjoys it, you can tell, but it does take a lot of his time.

The biggest winning punters I know don't make 10% ROI.

They just bet far far bigger than Fred does and rely on somewhere about 7 or 8%.

4% is an incredible achievement when you consider 97%ish of punters are losers.

Just seen this.  If you aim for a higher percentage you are generally passing up too many edges and the vast majority of edges are fairly thin these days.  I recently reviewed my betting records for the past 15  years.  10-15 years ago I was making 10%+ but I wasnt having enough bets and the prices were a lot worse than they are today.  Now I do well to make 4% over the course of a year but have a lot more bets and am, in general, a lot smarter yet if you look at my margins you would say I am getting worse but if anything my betting bank does better nowadays in terms of capital growth (albeit from a lower base.....pesky kids!!).

 I will give you an example.  Lets assume you have a $10k bank and bet a fixed 3% on every bet.  If you only take 10%+ edges you might find one bet a day and you will turnover $109500 a year and make a profit of $10950 so on your bank you would make 109.5%.  Decent growth but if you reduce this to 3% you might find 10 bets a day (I do routinely find more than this in a day).  Then you would turnover $547500 and increase your bank by $16425 or 164.25%.  In reality this affect is even more pronounced because you would vary your stakes according to your edge and also would be benefiting from increasing stakes as your bank increases so you would benefit disproportionately from compounding.  The absolutely smartest punters that I know of don't make more than 4%.  Conversely a lot of bookmakers don't make as much as they should imo because they pass up too many thin edges.  It is generally a mistake to focus too much on margin.  Cashflow is key really yet so many people use margin as a way to keep score.  It is one of the reasons that a lot of the "top" traders and odds compilers are so poor because they focus too much on margin and don't understand when they can make good money at thin margins.

[scotty2hatty]

Was planning to bet that Milford. 8/1 into 4/1 with Ladbrokes and Hills this morning.

Mentioned Milford this morning in the greyhounds thread, everything went as planned, except it didn't win!

[scotty2hatty]

Thoughts on the final at Romford? I'm on Airport Captain AP @ 12s, but recommended a small bet on Be Real @ 7/1 this morning. Super tough race and was just finding something.

[LeedsRhodesy]

on Smiler Jack but know nothing about dogs

[scotty2hatty]

Wow, Airport Captain, clock gone.

[Dubai]

Really great run but laughable stuff from Romford, always 40 fast when sky cameras are there and makes track records have a big squiggle next to them

[tikay]

Thoughts on the final at Romford? I'm on Airport Captain AP @ 12s, but recommended a small bet on Be Real @ 7/1 this morning. Super tough race and was just finding something.

Top work Scott, very well done, never in doubt once the traps opened.

[McGlashan]

Suarez is staying at Liverpool according to the rumour mill. 1.29 was available to lay on Betfair so someone out there in the know must be really confident he's staying.

Coral haven't suspended their betting yet and still offer 1.66 if that takes anyone's fancy.

[Omm]

Suarez is staying at Liverpool according to the rumour mill. 1.29 was available to lay on Betfair so someone out there in the know must be really confident he's staying.

Coral haven't suspended their betting yet and still offer 1.66 if that takes anyone's fancy.

Rooney, Bale and Suarez are 4.0 with corals all to stay with their current clubs, looks like Rooney and Suarez will stay but Bale still strong in the betting to go, even so 3-1 is too big isnt't it?

What's the deal with this thread? Having a read through it looks like anyone can tip and tikay runs it, is that how it works? It is obviously very popular, I take it that it is was it says on the tin, Tips for Tikay?

[rfgqqabc]

Suarez is staying at Liverpool according to the rumour mill. 1.29 was available to lay on Betfair so someone out there in the know must be really confident he's staying.

Coral haven't suspended their betting yet and still offer 1.66 if that takes anyone's fancy.

Rooney, Bale and Suarez are 4.0 with corals all to stay with their current clubs, looks like Rooney and Suarez will stay but Bale still strong in the betting to go, even so 3-1 is too big isnt't it?

What's the deal with this thread? Having a read through it looks like anyone can tip and tikay runs it, is that how it works? It is obviously very popular, I take it that it is was it says on the tin, Tips for Tikay?

Essentially yes. but TK has to hand over some duties at times. Basically, your first tip is normally bet if your new to the thread, as long as no one hates it, and generally after that you need someone to backup your opinion. There are thread Elders who are renowned punters, such as The_Camel, Hector, Bad Beat, Dubai etc who automatically have bets accepted (98%, Dubai tends to ask for the gdp of a small nation on some bets)

Welcome, stick around and don't be afraid, friendly mob this lot. Some cracking posts if you use the search function or go through the Fred.

[tikay]

Suarez is staying at Liverpool according to the rumour mill. 1.29 was available to lay on Betfair so someone out there in the know must be really confident he's staying.

Coral haven't suspended their betting yet and still offer 1.66 if that takes anyone's fancy.

Morning.

I cannot see that bet on Corals, I can only see these (on Coral).....

Rooney, Bale & Suarez all to LEAVE duing the transfer window - 15/8

Rooney, Bale & Suarez all to STAY at their current clubs (cut off date 17th August) - 3/1

Suarez to LEAVE before Midnight 31st August  - 4/9

Suarez to LEAVE before 14th September - 1/3