Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

A brief update on our bet in the International. There are only 9 runners left in, of which at least Kingsbarns and Declaration of War are likely non runners, which is good.  All bar Coral seem to have made it quarter first 2 so we have got the good each way terms we were hoping for.

Unfortunately, the connections of Toronado have thrown a spanner in the works by mooting a possible run in this race.  Looking at the odds, he only looks a 50/50 runner currently, but it is still an unwelcome development for our bet.

I seem to always get doubts at this stage, but there isn't a lot of buy money for Trading Leather, which doesn't please me much.  With Jim Bolger horses, you'd have your doubts about running plans if he appeared on Channel 4 an hour before the race promising a run.

So currently, I think the negatives outweigh the positives, but don't think we are in terrible shape.

[Ant040689]

The Chamakh 7.5 goals at evens is my only tip on the matter just to let you know Tikay. Chamakh is likely to be on pens too and Dubai said if that was the case, it would need to be a max bet, but I cannot guarantee he is the penno taker obv, just that Murray was ours, but will be unavailable until xmas.

And Doobs, I just think Holloway has been in a similar situation before with Blackpool, had a similarly poor team, and only just got relegated, I think with that he will help us just do enough as he will be able to tweek. In the same way he mastered the playoff matches and embarrassed Zola tactically in the final, as he had experienced the playoffs three times in 4/5 years.

I am going to keep quiet on Palace now until provoked. As you were.

[tikay]

A brief update on our bet in the International. There are only 9 runners left in, of which at least Kingsbarns and Declaration of War are likely non runners, which is good.  All bar Coral seem to have made it quarter first 2 so we have got the good each way terms we were hoping for.

Unfortunately, the connections of Toronado have thrown a spanner in the works by mooting a possible run in this race.  Looking at the odds, he only looks a 50/50 runner currently, but it is still an unwelcome development for our bet.

I seem to always get doubts at this stage, but there isn't a lot of buy money for Trading Leather, which doesn't please me much.  With Jim Bolger horses, you'd have your doubts about running plans if he appeared on Channel 4 an hour before the race promising a run.

So currently, I think the negatives outweigh the positives, but don't think we are in terrible shape.

When is it, Doobs?

[tikay]

On average, how many penalties does a PL team get in a season?

And the conversion rate?

[scotty2hatty]

On average, how many penalties does a PL team get in a season?

And the conversion rate?

http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premier_League_Penalty_Statistics.html

83 last season, which obv averages out at just over 4.

66 scored, 80%, which is basically the ten year percentage too.

[scotty2hatty]

Last season, the relegated sides were awarded 4, 4 and 1 penalties.

[tikay]

On average, how many penalties does a PL team get in a season?

And the conversion rate?

http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premier_League_Penalty_Statistics.html

83 last season, which obv averages out at just over 4.

66 scored, 80%, which is basically the ten year percentage too.

Top work Scott, thanks.

So if that held good, AND the same player took all the pens, he would, on average, score three goals from pens.

Guess that could swing a lot either way though. A lesser team, struggling every match, is, presumably, less likely to win pens?

[Jamier-Host]

Anyone had any dealings with IBAS?

I have some major issues with Ladbrokes and was wondering whether it's worth pursuing.

Tried a few times (14 years in industry so not a random sore loser) but still got a zero strike rate. 

[Ant040689]

Glenn Murray scored 8 pens in the league last year and missed 3. I know Garvan scored at least one and so did Phillips in the league rather than his heroic one in the PO final. So at least 13 league pens.

Despite lax Championship defending I think it needs to be noted we get a fuck load more penalties than most teams. We were the leading Championship receivers last year by some way.

[Waz1892]

Walsall home to Notts Co.

Anyone tell me why they are 6/5 (generally)?  higher in some places...

Unbeaten, 2 wins out of 2, finished higher than County last season.  Notts Co lost both opening games.

I'd say £25 seem a good bet?

[Doobs]

A brief update on our bet in the International. There are only 9 runners left in, of which at least Kingsbarns and Declaration of War are likely non runners, which is good.  All bar Coral seem to have made it quarter first 2 so we have got the good each way terms we were hoping for.

Unfortunately, the connections of Toronado have thrown a spanner in the works by mooting a possible run in this race.  Looking at the odds, he only looks a 50/50 runner currently, but it is still an unwelcome development for our bet.

I seem to always get doubts at this stage, but there isn't a lot of buy money for Trading Leather, which doesn't please me much.  With Jim Bolger horses, you'd have your doubts about running plans if he appeared on Channel 4 an hour before the race promising a run.

So currently, I think the negatives outweigh the positives, but don't think we are in terrible shape.

When is it, Doobs?

Next Wednesday.

[tikay]

Glenn Murray scored 8 pens in the league last year and missed 3. I know Garvan scored at least one and so did Phillips in the league rather than his heroic one in the PO final. So at least 13 league pens.

Despite lax Championship defending I think it needs to be noted we get a fuck load more penalties than most teams. We were the leading Championship receivers last year by some way.

That fits the logic train exactly. You were better than most Championship teams, & attacked a great deal. This season, not so much then. Let us assume the average - 4 pens, 3 scored, but we are not sure who takes them.

This is not personal Ant! Just trying to get my head round some facts in a logical manner, to help decide on the bet, & between the two proposed bets.

[tikay]

Walsall home to Notts Co.

Anyone tell me why they are 6/5 (generally)?  higher in some places...

Unbeaten, 2 wins out of 2, finished higher than County last season.  Notts Co lost both opening games.

I'd say £25 seem a good bet?

The price feels about right to me, why are we assuming it is wrong, please? Most bookies make it a 6/5 shot?

[Waz1892]

Walsall home to Notts Co.

Anyone tell me why they are 6/5 (generally)?  higher in some places...

Unbeaten, 2 wins out of 2, finished higher than County last season.  Notts Co lost both opening games.

I'd say £25 seem a good bet?

The price feels about right to me, why are we assuming it is wrong, please? Most bookies make it a 6/5 shot?

Figured it should be odds on with the starts they've both had?  Aware its early days, etc....however 6/6 for Walsall, and 0/6 from county.  County leaked 4 at the weekend. Over last season, Walsall finished above them last season.

[Chompy]

Tbf Notts Co have played away at Sheff Utd and only had ten men for 75mins, only losing 2-1, before facing the best team in the league, the mighty Posh.

Walsall have beaten Tranmere and Oldham. Big difference in quality of opposition there.