Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Glenn Murray scored 8 pens in the league last year and missed 3. I know Garvan scored at least one and so did Phillips in the league rather than his heroic one in the PO final. So at least 13 league pens.

Despite lax Championship defending I think it needs to be noted we get a fuck load more penalties than most teams. We were the leading Championship receivers last year by some way.

That fits the logic train exactly. You were better than most Championship teams, & attacked a great deal. This season, not so much then. Let us assume the average - 4 pens, 3 scored, but we are not sure who takes them.

This is not personal Ant! Just trying to get my head round some facts in a logical manner, to help decide on the bet, & between the two proposed bets.

Got the wrong end of the stick if you think i am taking this personally lol.

Just trying to help.

[tikay]

Walsall home to Notts Co.

Anyone tell me why they are 6/5 (generally)?  higher in some places...

Unbeaten, 2 wins out of 2, finished higher than County last season.  Notts Co lost both opening games.

I'd say £25 seem a good bet?

The price feels about right to me, why are we assuming it is wrong, please? Most bookies make it a 6/5 shot?

Figured it should be odds on with the starts they've both had?  Aware its early days, etc....however 6/6 for Walsall, and 0/6 from county.  County leaked 4 at the weekend. Over last season, Walsall finished above them last season.

Agreed, that all fits.

I don't actually know much about football, but my point, really, is that the bookies all know what you just stated, and still offered us 6/5. Did they all get it wrong?

Not against the bet, honest, just trying to apply what the Big Boys taught us.

[tikay]

Glenn Murray scored 8 pens in the league last year and missed 3. I know Garvan scored at least one and so did Phillips in the league rather than his heroic one in the PO final. So at least 13 league pens.

Despite lax Championship defending I think it needs to be noted we get a fuck load more penalties than most teams. We were the leading Championship receivers last year by some way.

That fits the logic train exactly. You were better than most Championship teams, & attacked a great deal. This season, not so much then. Let us assume the average - 4 pens, 3 scored, but we are not sure who takes them.

This is not personal Ant! Just trying to get my head round some facts in a logical manner, to help decide on the bet, & between the two proposed bets.

Got the wrong end of the stick if you think i am taking this personally lol.

Just trying to help.

Ha, I know, I know.

Bit difficult for you to be dispassionate and impartial though, you'd agree?

[Horneris]

My 2nd & final piece of spam I promise.

Not too late to play fantasy football this season yet guys, just drop me a pm or comment in the thread and I'll send you the details for payment then codes when received.

Getting excited now, less than 2 days to go till the prem is back!!!

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61847.0

[tikay]

My 2nd & final piece of spam I promise.

Not too late to play fantasy football this season yet guys, just drop me a pm or comment in the thread and I'll send you the details for payment then codes when received.

Getting excited now, less than 2 days to go till the prem is back!!!

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61847.0

You got me, I will enter tomorrow if I remember.

Can I get someone else to make my selections for me? An expert, like, or even Chompy?

[Horneris]

My 2nd & final piece of spam I promise.

Not too late to play fantasy football this season yet guys, just drop me a pm or comment in the thread and I'll send you the details for payment then codes when received.

Getting excited now, less than 2 days to go till the prem is back!!!

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61847.0

You got me, I will enter tomorrow if I remember.

Can I get someone else to make my selections for me? An expert, like, or even Chompy?

Sure. Maybe not the entire tips for tikay following as I imagine a lot will be playing already but certainly Chompy 

[Waz1892]

Walsall home to Notts Co.

Anyone tell me why they are 6/5 (generally)?  higher in some places...

Unbeaten, 2 wins out of 2, finished higher than County last season.  Notts Co lost both opening games.

I'd say £25 seem a good bet?

The price feels about right to me, why are we assuming it is wrong, please? Most bookies make it a 6/5 shot?

Figured it should be odds on with the starts they've both had?  Aware its early days, etc....however 6/6 for Walsall, and 0/6 from county.  County leaked 4 at the weekend. Over last season, Walsall finished above them last season.

Agreed, that all fits.

I don't actually know much about football, but my point, really, is that the bookies all know what you just stated, and still offered us 6/5. Did they all get it wrong?

Not against the bet, honest, just trying to apply what the Big Boys taught us.

didnt mean to argue my point in that manner, and I'm also still learning the big boy lesson. I guess, im trying to understand/ say is yes with that knowledge, why would it by 6/5 still?  or as per chompy..results are against opposite strength teams, so not reflective?

confidence though can counter some of that?

[Ant040689]

Glenn Murray scored 8 pens in the league last year and missed 3. I know Garvan scored at least one and so did Phillips in the league rather than his heroic one in the PO final. So at least 13 league pens.

Despite lax Championship defending I think it needs to be noted we get a fuck load more penalties than most teams. We were the leading Championship receivers last year by some way.

That fits the logic train exactly. You were better than most Championship teams, & attacked a great deal. This season, not so much then. Let us assume the average - 4 pens, 3 scored, but we are not sure who takes them.

This is not personal Ant! Just trying to get my head round some facts in a logical manner, to help decide on the bet, & between the two proposed bets.

Got the wrong end of the stick if you think i am taking this personally lol.

Just trying to help.

Ha, I know, I know.

Bit difficult for you to be dispassionate and impartial though, you'd agree?

Of course. But it shouldn't take away from if I have a good tip about Palace. That is why i offer these as suggestions and wait for the more impartial folk to come in and support or sometimes ridicule . Dubai immediately backed this one, so it probably isn't terrible.

[tikay]

Walsall home to Notts Co.

Anyone tell me why they are 6/5 (generally)?  higher in some places...

Unbeaten, 2 wins out of 2, finished higher than County last season.  Notts Co lost both opening games.

I'd say £25 seem a good bet?

The price feels about right to me, why are we assuming it is wrong, please? Most bookies make it a 6/5 shot?

Figured it should be odds on with the starts they've both had?  Aware its early days, etc....however 6/6 for Walsall, and 0/6 from county.  County leaked 4 at the weekend. Over last season, Walsall finished above them last season.

Agreed, that all fits.

I don't actually know much about football, but my point, really, is that the bookies all know what you just stated, and still offered us 6/5. Did they all get it wrong?

Not against the bet, honest, just trying to apply what the Big Boys taught us.

didnt mean to argue my point in that manner, and I'm also still learning the big boy lesson. I guess, im trying to understand/ say is yes with that knowledge, why would it by 6/5 still?  or as per chompy..results are against opposite strength teams, so not reflective?

confidence though can counter some of that?

Your line and manner of argument was 100% fine, am just being Devils Advocate really.

I actually agree with the thrust of your view - why are they 6/5? But I also hold the view that all those bookies can't be far wrong, can they? Or not enough to give us a meaningful edge.

It's all good debate.

[tikay]

Glenn Murray scored 8 pens in the league last year and missed 3. I know Garvan scored at least one and so did Phillips in the league rather than his heroic one in the PO final. So at least 13 league pens.

Despite lax Championship defending I think it needs to be noted we get a fuck load more penalties than most teams. We were the leading Championship receivers last year by some way.

That fits the logic train exactly. You were better than most Championship teams, & attacked a great deal. This season, not so much then. Let us assume the average - 4 pens, 3 scored, but we are not sure who takes them.

This is not personal Ant! Just trying to get my head round some facts in a logical manner, to help decide on the bet, & between the two proposed bets.

Got the wrong end of the stick if you think i am taking this personally lol.

Just trying to help.

Ha, I know, I know.

Bit difficult for you to be dispassionate and impartial though, you'd agree?

Of course. But it shouldn't take away from if I have a good tip about Palace. That is why i offer these as suggestions and wait for the more impartial folk to come in and support or sometimes ridicule . Dubai immediately backed this one, so it probably isn't terrible.

Nobody will ridicule you for sure, but as a Palace fan, and a fanatical one at that, your views have to be discounted by a certain amount, for obvious reasons. If a jockey or trainer says their horse is a cert, we would never back it, we'd go skinto in double quick time. If the manger of a football team says "yeah, the lads are up for it, we will win this" his views must carry some discount. That's all I am saying.

Your input here is always welcome, but I have to make allowance for the homer factor. AW and SAF always struggle to be impartial, after all, so you are in imperious company.

[Waz1892]

Walsall home to Notts Co.

Anyone tell me why they are 6/5 (generally)?  higher in some places...

Unbeaten, 2 wins out of 2, finished higher than County last season.  Notts Co lost both opening games.

I'd say £25 seem a good bet?

The price feels about right to me, why are we assuming it is wrong, please? Most bookies make it a 6/5 shot?

Figured it should be odds on with the starts they've both had?  Aware its early days, etc....however 6/6 for Walsall, and 0/6 from county.  County leaked 4 at the weekend. Over last season, Walsall finished above them last season.

Agreed, that all fits.

I don't actually know much about football, but my point, really, is that the bookies all know what you just stated, and still offered us 6/5. Did they all get it wrong?

Not against the bet, honest, just trying to apply what the Big Boys taught us.

didnt mean to argue my point in that manner, and I'm also still learning the big boy lesson. I guess, im trying to understand/ say is yes with that knowledge, why would it by 6/5 still?  or as per chompy..results are against opposite strength teams, so not reflective?

confidence though can counter some of that?

Your line and manner of argument was 100% fine, am just being Devils Advocate really.

I actually agree with the thrust of your view - why are they 6/5? But I also hold the view that all those bookies can't be far wrong, can they? Or not enough to give us a meaningful edge.

It's all good debate.

tis true. hear lies, lesson 1!

[Ant040689]

Glenn Murray scored 8 pens in the league last year and missed 3. I know Garvan scored at least one and so did Phillips in the league rather than his heroic one in the PO final. So at least 13 league pens.

Despite lax Championship defending I think it needs to be noted we get a fuck load more penalties than most teams. We were the leading Championship receivers last year by some way.

That fits the logic train exactly. You were better than most Championship teams, & attacked a great deal. This season, not so much then. Let us assume the average - 4 pens, 3 scored, but we are not sure who takes them.

This is not personal Ant! Just trying to get my head round some facts in a logical manner, to help decide on the bet, & between the two proposed bets.

Got the wrong end of the stick if you think i am taking this personally lol.

Just trying to help.

Ha, I know, I know.

Bit difficult for you to be dispassionate and impartial though, you'd agree?

Of course. But it shouldn't take away from if I have a good tip about Palace. That is why i offer these as suggestions and wait for the more impartial folk to come in and support or sometimes ridicule . Dubai immediately backed this one, so it probably isn't terrible.

Nobody will ridicule you for sure, but as a Palace fan, and a fanatical one at that, your views have to be discounted by a certain amount, for obvious reasons. If a jockey or trainer says their horse is a cert, we would never back it, we'd go skinto in double quick time. If the manger of a football team says "yeah, the lads are up for it, we will win this" his views must carry some discount. That's all I am saying.

Your input here is always welcome, but I have to make allowance for the homer factor. AW and SAF always struggle to be impartial, after all, so you are in imperious company.

It's all good Now onto a tip for Sunday, I suggest Palace to win by 4...

[Katais]

Let's see if I can get a bet on the spreadsheet before Pingu!  

-----------------------

Can't understand why Blackburn are almost 2/1 to win at Donny tonight?

Doncaster team has been thrown together in the final week leading up to the season, key players in key positions have missed the whole of pre season & the team has played very little together.

Ongoing speculation/uncertainty over a potential takeover/investment which has been dragging on for months now never seems to help.

Drfc played only 1 league game so far, losing 1-3 at home to a similarly poor/threadbare Blackpool side.

Home goal was scored from a corner by biggest goal threat, centre half Rob Jones.

3 days later struggled to a 1-0 home win at home to Rochdale in the Carling cup, again goal scored from a set piece, a header by the other centre half.

Lacking creativity & goals.

2nd game against Wigan postponed due to their community shield commitments, and although it would likely have been a defeat the team has very little experience of playing together & would have benefited from the game time after disrupted pre season.

DRFC home record last season very poor for a title winning team, losing 8 of 23 home games, drawing 5, winning < 50% in a very poor league.

Blackburn look a much more settled club going in to this season, fans finally seem content with the manager.

Impressive performance and solid result in their first away game of the season at Derby, before conceding a late winner in a close fought encounter with fancied Forest.

They'll see this as a big 3 points to kick start their season and only a win will do for them.

Much more experience and quality 1-11, the away bench would all walk in to the home first 11.

Admittedly lost to Carlisle in the cup between league games, but it was a much changed side. tbh fancy their 2nd team would come away with a positive result tonight anyway.

Likely to bring a big following, and the keepmoat pitch which may be a potential leveller later in the season is in pristine condition.

---------------------------

Likely DRFC line up.

Ross Turnbull - Signed 1 day before the first league game.

Paul Quinn - On the fringes throughout last season, forced in to the first team due to injuries/players leaving.
Bongani Khumalo - Joined very late in pre season on loan from Spurs.
Rob Jones ©
James Husband  19 year old, very little first team experience, youth team player thrown in due to lack of options/injuries.

David Cotterill
Richie Wellens - Again signed a short term deal the day before the season started having being released by Leicester.
Dean Furman - Played on Tuesday night for SA at home v Nigeria. Will almost certainly have to start, no other options.
Mark Duffy - Unproven at this level, big step up having signed from Scunthorpe late on in pre season.

James Coppinger
Theo Robinson - Signed yesterday afternoon from Derby, in line to start tonight.

Bench - Not much !

---------

I think if this game was played 100,000 times, Blackburn would win more than 500,000 times. That makes 7/4 a really good price, right?

Reccy punter logic

Recommend some money on Blackburn to win @ Doncaster tonight @ 7/4 ! (365/totesport/berfred)  

[tikay]

Let's see if I can get a bet on the spreadsheet before Pingu!  

-----------------------

Can't understand why Blackburn are almost 2/1 to win at Donny tonight?

Doncaster team has been thrown together in the final week leading up to the season, key players in key positions have missed the whole of pre season & the team has played very little together.

Ongoing speculation/uncertainty over a potential takeover/investment which has been dragging on for months now never seems to help.

Drfc played only 1 league game so far, losing 1-3 at home to a similarly poor/threadbare Blackpool side.

Home goal was scored from a corner by biggest goal threat, centre half Rob Jones.

3 days later struggled to a 1-0 home win at home to Rochdale in the Carling cup, again goal scored from a set piece, a header by the other centre half.

Lacking creativity & goals.

2nd game against Wigan postponed due to their community shield commitments, and although it would likely have been a defeat the team has very little experience of playing together & would have benefited from the game time after disrupted pre season.

DRFC home record last season very poor for a title winning team, losing 8 of 23 home games, drawing 5, winning < 50% in a very poor league.

Blackburn look a much more settled club going in to this season, fans finally seem content with the manager.

Impressive performance and solid result in their first away game of the season at Derby, before conceding a late winner in a close fought encounter with fancied Forest.

They'll see this as a big 3 points to kick start their season and only a win will do for them.

Much more experience and quality 1-11, the away bench would all walk in to the home first 11.

Admittedly lost to Carlisle in the cup between league games, but it was a much changed side. tbh fancy their 2nd team would come away with a positive result tonight anyway.

Likely to bring a big following, and the keepmoat pitch which may be a potential leveller later in the season is in pristine condition.

---------------------------

Likely DRFC line up.

Ross Turnbull - Signed 1 day before the first league game.

Paul Quinn - On the fringes throughout last season, forced in to the first team due to injuries/players leaving.
Bongani Khumalo - Joined very late in pre season on loan from Spurs.
Rob Jones ©
James Husband  19 year old, very little first team experience, youth team player thrown in due to lack of options/injuries.

David Cotterill
Richie Wellens - Again signed a short term deal the day before the season started having being released by Leicester.
Dean Furman - Played on Tuesday night for SA at home v Nigeria. Will almost certainly have to start, no other options.
Mark Duffy - Unproven at this level, big step up having signed from Scunthorpe late on in pre season.

James Coppinger
Theo Robinson - Signed yesterday afternoon from Derby, in line to start tonight.

Bench - Not much !

---------

I think if this game was played 100,000 times, Blackburn would win more than 500,000 times. That makes 7/4 a really good price, right?

Reccy punter logic

Recommend some money on Blackburn to win @ Doncaster tonight @ 7/4 ! (365/totesport/berfred)  

Ha!

Morning Mr JJ.

Firstly, we need to give you a bit of help with the maths.

I think if this game was played 100,000 times, Blackburn would win more than 500,000 times. That makes 7/4 a really good price, right?

Secondly.......remind me where you live please. Doncaster, is it? 

Seriously, you've constructed that well, thank you.

Unless one of the Serious Faces come along & say it is shite, we WILL do that tonight, by way of Fred Tradition to newbies.

Surprised you have never had a cricket bet accepted, you seem to understand the game quite well. Oh, wait - you are from Yorkshire, right?

[tikay]

Incidentally, the prices for that Donny - Blackburn game are here....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/doncaster-v-blackburn/winner

I AM going to do the bet, so good luck you, & remember, we expect a Report on the game from you later. Part of the bettors responsibility that. Don't forget.