Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Blackburn had one shot on target, from 15 attempts.

Fun division, the Championship. Not much goes according to punters plans!

[horseplayer]

The thinking on the spanish bet Tikay

At Madrid are rightful favs and betfreds 11/8 is an ok price. However i am not sure how well Villa will last a season and whether him and Costa will be anything like the partnership him and Falcao were, they might not need to be tbf.

Valencia next in without Soldado will be a fair bit weaker, they also have a new hardline manager and a squad full of talent but biggish egos will either finish 3rd or mid table i think not big enough to risk.

The rest of the contenders are either in Europe (big disadvantage in Spain kick offs are very rarely moved to compensate anybody expect the big two) or so skint it is untrue and judging them on attractive looking squads now is folly.

Atheltic Bilbao are a solid side as usual, they no longer have my hero coaching but have a more than decent replacement and have as per usual a settled squad with a sounder financial setting than this time last season. They are most likely to fall short but if the two favs falter they are best placed to challenge.

Villareal just been promoted have a much younger squad than before with still a mix of experience especially upfront. Bit of a flyer but they have been up there not that long ago and sides have slipped out of La Liga before and comfortably challenged top half first season back. The 66/1 quotes look about right at 200/1 they are worth the risk.

[horseplayer]

Donny were favs tonight weren't they?

[Katais]

Sighhhh/ughhhh/dohhhhh etc

The bookies are just alot better at this than I am!

Result was about right, no hard luck stories here.

How do they know?

That'll teach me to go against my team! First & last time!

Sorry for sticking a duff en up! Done a chunk on it myself

Good luck over the weekend

[tikay]

Donny were favs tonight weren't they?

Think Rovers were marginal favourite.

[tikay]

Sighhhh/ughhhh/dohhhhh etc

The bookies are just alot better at this than I am!

Result was about right, no hard luck stories here.

How do they know?

That'll teach me to go against my team! First & last time!

Sorry for sticking a duff en up! Done a chunk on it myself

Good luck over the weekend

Thanks JJ, no worries, it happens.

Have a great weekend, & enjoy the cricket tomorrow.

[Bazzaboy]

Boxing

Barker v Geale - Barker drifted earlier in the week following rumours that he had a back injury. However they appear to be unfounded and his price has started to shorten again, B365 are still 13/8 which was as big as he got.  I make Geale favourite but i have it closer. His workrate will win him rounds and he will really test Barker's heart and fitness, but Barker has the edge in power and boxing ability. Barker's only real foray into world level was against the exceptional Martinez where he acquitted himself well before being stopped late on.  He has followed that up with two routine wins to get another shot at a title.

Geale had a breakthrough win against Sturm, however I think that win flatters him somewhat as Sturm has been on the downgrade for the past few years and was lucky to still have te title when Geale fought him. His power shouldn't trouble Barker and I see this being very tight and going to the cards. Barker at 13/8 is too big for me. Recommend £40

[Ironside]

Damm I didnt recomend a 3-1 winner for the thread today which I wish I had lumped on as tikay didnt want any more silly big brother bets just wish I had broken my own betting rule of not betting what I cant afford to lose

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

We should back the CESM's to beat Wigan tomorrow. Current price is 6/4 which I expect to fall tomorrow. Wigan have the cup final next week  and won't risk injuries. They are already missing their captain and I expect Tomkins to play either no part or a very limited part of the game. Hull struggled to beat Salford tonight and were similarly concerned about next week.

Suggest £20 Catalan to beat Wigan @ 6/4 with Betfred or sportingbet.

[tikay]

Boxing

Barker v Geale - Barker drifted earlier in the week following rumours that he had a back injury. However they appear to be unfounded and his price has started to shorten again, B365 are still 13/8 which was as big as he got.  I make Geale favourite but i have it closer. His workrate will win him rounds and he will really test Barker's heart and fitness, but Barker has the edge in power and boxing ability. Barker's only real foray into world level was against the exceptional Martinez where he acquitted himself well before being stopped late on.  He has followed that up with two routine wins to get another shot at a title.

Geale had a breakthrough win against Sturm, however I think that win flatters him somewhat as Sturm has been on the downgrade for the past few years and was lucky to still have te title when Geale fought him. His power shouldn't trouble Barker and I see this being very tight and going to the cards. Barker at 13/8 is too big for me. Recommend £40

ON, thanks Bazza.

Don't forget we have that other boxing bet of yours tomorrow, Cleverly (?).

We got 7/4 (minus comish) with Betfair, much the same as 13/8 & saved restriction issues @ Bet365.

£40 @ 2.72, BetFair, Barker over Geale

ON

Geale v Barker


Darren BarkerMatch Odds   
2.72  £40.00   £68.80

Ref: 29006867490M Matched: 22:28 16-Aug-13

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

We should back the CESM's to beat Wigan tomorrow. Current price is 6/4 which I expect to fall tomorrow. Wigan have the cup final next week  and won't risk injuries. They are already missing their captain and I expect Tomkins to play either no part or a very limited part of the game. Hull struggled to beat Salford tonight and were similarly concerned about next week.

Suggest £20 Catalan to beat Wigan @ 6/4 with Betfred or sportingbet.

Thanks hector, especially for getting on tonight, as I may be busy tomorrow.

We are safely on.

Hope you backed "Hector's Choice" today.

We have £20 @ 6/4, BetFred, Catalan to beat Wigan.

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 155/165

Bet ref: 155/165 £20.00 Single

Catalan Dragons v Wigan
80 Minute Betting
 Catalans Dragons 6/4 


Total stake
£ 20.00

Estimated return
£ 50.00

Full stake
£ 20.00

Full estimated return
£ 50.00

[Tal]

The Chiefs bet. This seems to me like a good example of where Fred can beat a win/lose/draw market. I think it has become a well-established Fredism that the bookies are quite good at the Outright markets and it occurs to me that betting on those is a slow and steady way to the poor house.

Kansas City spent last season being...well...you know the Harlem Globetrotters? Well just imagine how rubbish they'd be at American football. The 49ers we know about as being one of the better sides around. The bookies have only to run a few simulations and price it up at 110 for Billy Bob to be your uncle.

But redarmi pops up like a cheeky info imp to deliver a bit of extra intel, such that we can get value from a seemingly valueless market.

These are the nuances that distinguish the entirely logical but secretly -EV from the reason a tiny fraction of punters make money.

Cue bok. I will employ the Sample Size Defence if necessary

[Spudy]

Hi all, suggest AC Milan at 100-1 is worth 10 quid e\w for champions league with skybet. price strikes me as huge considering juve are typically 18-1 and Milan are considered 2nd favs to win serie a. Fred already backed napoli at66-1 for cl, so 100-1 ew Milan makes perfect sense as a back.

[ChipRich]

Few anytimes for 2moro

Junior Hoilett 7/2  - Scored and also had 6 shots on goal last week. Class above in this league tbh. Anyone that has 6 shots on goal previous week deserves a chance again at 7/2.

Franck Moussa  9/2 - vs Carlisle. Game looks like it should have plenty of goals. Coventry scored 7 and conceded 7 in 2 games. Carlisle conceded 9 in 2 games. Moussa has scored 2 in 3 games so far this season and 7 of his last 8 goals have came away from home too as he gets forward a load on the counter attack.



Score on each?

[McGlashan]

The thinking on the spanish bet Tikay

At Madrid are rightful favs and betfreds 11/8 is an ok price. However i am not sure how well Villa will last a season and whether him and Costa will be anything like the partnership him and Falcao were, they might not need to be tbf.

Valencia next in without Soldado will be a fair bit weaker, they also have a new hardline manager and a squad full of talent but biggish egos will either finish 3rd or mid table i think not big enough to risk.

The rest of the contenders are either in Europe (big disadvantage in Spain kick offs are very rarely moved to compensate anybody expect the big two) or so skint it is untrue and judging them on attractive looking squads now is folly.

Atheltic Bilbao are a solid side as usual, they no longer have my hero coaching but have a more than decent replacement and have as per usual a settled squad with a sounder financial setting than this time last season. They are most likely to fall short but if the two favs falter they are best placed to challenge.

Villareal just been promoted have a much younger squad than before with still a mix of experience especially upfront. Bit of a flyer but they have been up there not that long ago and sides have slipped out of La Liga before and comfortably challenged top half first season back. The 66/1 quotes look about right at 200/1 they are worth the risk.

It's good to see Fred got on this. Anything could happen outside the top 2, there's probably more value to be had in La Liga than the EPL and if I had to pick a side to bet on it'd be Bilbao.