Tips for Tikay

[Waz1892]

Can't have Chelsea as equals (or betters) of the Manchester clubs unless they buy a really top class striker in the next two weeks.

Chelsea backers overestimating the amount of game time Abramovich's play thing Torres is going to get?

They looked great in all areas of the pitch (except Terry obv) but Torres remains out of touch to my eye.

Compared with RVP and Aguero, there's a huge gulf in class imo.

I think today was interesting because last time Mourinho managed Chelsea they were very dominant but played in a very specific way and really did not press home their advantage once they had hit the front.  Mourinho's previous Chelsea sides won a lot of games 1-0 and 2-0 and eased up when they were a couple of goals in front.  As such they never really conformed to the normal poisson distributions that you would expect from teams that were 1.5 goal faves.  Today looked very much the same to me and it may be something we can take advantage of.  A manager certainly has the ability to make all of the odds compilers models wrong if he decides to play in a certain way.  I'm going to run some numbers from last time he was there and take it from there but definitely an interesting angle.

this was something I wrote about in my tipping column this morning

"Chelsea under Mourinho are an interesting proposition. All the defensive solidity that was a hall-mark of the previous Mourinho Chelsea era remains, with Cech behind three of Cahill,Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry and Cole but there is now a huge number of attacking options with Mata, Hazard, Oscar and Lampard supporting Torres and/or Demba Ba

It will be interesting to see if the old Mourinho approach of going ahead and then controlling the game applies, compared to the Chelsea last season of all out attack"


very much looked like it was go ahead, control the game and not really worried about running the score up to me today. Probably the opposite of what Pellegrini might do, too

I would be wary of Chelsea supremacies, and favouring backing them to win to nil against bottom half teams in the league at home

"An alternative is to back Chelsea to win to nil at virtually even money with BetVictor and back the combination of a parsimonious approach, Mourinho's style in the Premier League, and Hull City's likely approach to pay off in that way"

http://www.betpal.com/premier-league-betting-preview-sunday-18th-august-tottenham-and-chelsea-enter-the-fray

and he's still to lose at home in the prem!

[TightEnd]

Nicola cortese led a team of wealthy investors, buying Southampton out of admin. Two promotions and 36m of spend this off-season, cortese has designs on the top six. Very ambitious club now

[redarmi]

Can't have Chelsea as equals (or betters) of the Manchester clubs unless they buy a really top class striker in the next two weeks.

Chelsea backers overestimating the amount of game time Abramovich's play thing Torres is going to get?

They looked great in all areas of the pitch (except Terry obv) but Torres remains out of touch to my eye.

Compared with RVP and Aguero, there's a huge gulf in class imo.

I think today was interesting because last time Mourinho managed Chelsea they were very dominant but played in a very specific way and really did not press home their advantage once they had hit the front.  Mourinho's previous Chelsea sides won a lot of games 1-0 and 2-0 and eased up when they were a couple of goals in front.  As such they never really conformed to the normal poisson distributions that you would expect from teams that were 1.5 goal faves.  Today looked very much the same to me and it may be something we can take advantage of.  A manager certainly has the ability to make all of the odds compilers models wrong if he decides to play in a certain way.  I'm going to run some numbers from last time he was there and take it from there but definitely an interesting angle.

Looked into this a bit further.  In the first three years he was at Stamford Bridge (I have missed out the last season because I cba to find the exact date he left) they played 114 league games and won 42 of them 1-0 or 2-0 which is 36% of the games they played.  i would normally expect a team of that type to win between 20-25% of their games by such a margin.  I think this marries fairly well with what I have seen with my own eyes although possibly it is more pronounced on the road.  Interesting anyway....sorry if I am rambling.

[Karabiner]

Have only skimmed today's Fredisms but Tikay you seem to have been on fire today: zinger after zinger. Like a gruffer, more authoritiative Groucho Marx.


Coentrao doesn't make the Real squad tonight. Bale transfer speculators sharpen their pencils...

"I've had a wonderful evening...

...This wasn't it"


Always cracks me up, that one. Then there's the note familiar "I never forget a face, but in your case I'll be glad to make an exception"

This one got me today.

Dead budgie for sale.

Not going cheap.

[tikay]

!

[tikay]

Nicola cortese led a team of wealthy investors, buying Southampton out of admin. Two promotions and 36m of spend this off-season, cortese has designs on the top six. Very ambitious club now

We should have backed them.

[tikay]

Europe lead in 3 of the first 4.

Not ideal.

[TightEnd]

Can't have Chelsea as equals (or betters) of the Manchester clubs unless they buy a really top class striker in the next two weeks.

Chelsea backers overestimating the amount of game time Abramovich's play thing Torres is going to get?

They looked great in all areas of the pitch (except Terry obv) but Torres remains out of touch to my eye.

Compared with RVP and Aguero, there's a huge gulf in class imo.

I think today was interesting because last time Mourinho managed Chelsea they were very dominant but played in a very specific way and really did not press home their advantage once they had hit the front.  Mourinho's previous Chelsea sides won a lot of games 1-0 and 2-0 and eased up when they were a couple of goals in front.  As such they never really conformed to the normal poisson distributions that you would expect from teams that were 1.5 goal faves.  Today looked very much the same to me and it may be something we can take advantage of.  A manager certainly has the ability to make all of the odds compilers models wrong if he decides to play in a certain way.  I'm going to run some numbers from last time he was there and take it from there but definitely an interesting angle.

Looked into this a bit further.  In the first three years he was at Stamford Bridge (I have missed out the last season because I cba to find the exact date he left) they played 114 league games and won 42 of them 1-0 or 2-0 which is 36% of the games they played.  i would normally expect a team of that type to win between 20-25% of their games by such a margin.  I think this marries fairly well with what I have seen with my own eyes although possibly it is more pronounced on the road.  Interesting anyway....sorry if I am rambling.

with the odds of 1-0 and 2-0 going to be around the 6-1, 7-1 mark for most games, do you think there might be mileage, given the incidence you quote above , in blanket backing tese correct scores

perhaps filtering out games against top six opponents, away at top 10 opponents etc? possibly filter out sides with good counter attacking potential eg Villa on Wednesday might be one of those you'd ignore, with Agbonlahor and Weimann's pace supporting Benteke?

With that filter you'll end up with a potential universe of 20+ of the 38 games in a season to go at.

Reckon that might be a viable strategy

[tikay]

Can't have Chelsea as equals (or betters) of the Manchester clubs unless they buy a really top class striker in the next two weeks.

Chelsea backers overestimating the amount of game time Abramovich's play thing Torres is going to get?

They looked great in all areas of the pitch (except Terry obv) but Torres remains out of touch to my eye.

Compared with RVP and Aguero, there's a huge gulf in class imo.

I think today was interesting because last time Mourinho managed Chelsea they were very dominant but played in a very specific way and really did not press home their advantage once they had hit the front.  Mourinho's previous Chelsea sides won a lot of games 1-0 and 2-0 and eased up when they were a couple of goals in front.  As such they never really conformed to the normal poisson distributions that you would expect from teams that were 1.5 goal faves.  Today looked very much the same to me and it may be something we can take advantage of.  A manager certainly has the ability to make all of the odds compilers models wrong if he decides to play in a certain way.  I'm going to run some numbers from last time he was there and take it from there but definitely an interesting angle.

Looked into this a bit further.  In the first three years he was at Stamford Bridge (I have missed out the last season because I cba to find the exact date he left) they played 114 league games and won 42 of them 1-0 or 2-0 which is 36% of the games they played.  i would normally expect a team of that type to win between 20-25% of their games by such a margin.  I think this marries fairly well with what I have seen with my own eyes although possibly it is more pronounced on the road.  Interesting anyway....sorry if I am rambling.

Ramble away, I can see where this is going.

punish

[Ironside]

Nicola cortese led a team of wealthy investors, buying Southampton out of admin. Two promotions and 36m of spend this off-season, cortese has designs on the top six. Very ambitious club now

We should have backed them.

I did spot the value but too late fred was already on us going down

[tikay]

Real Madrid 1 Betis 1.

One more please, Madrid.

[tikay]

Miss Wie, putting with her legs wide apart & skirt up to her arse, needs to work on her Woods-style celebration when putting. It works better when the putt actually goes in.

[The Camel]

Don't know if Bale will be a success at Real.

He's great on the counter, but 99% of teams play so deep against RM, I doubt he'll have many chances to run defences ragged.

[Tal]

Ronaldo doesn't seem to mind

[Tal]

As for Miss Wie, whatever happened to appropriate attire? I wrote a blazer today to DTD and felt overdressed. Nothing fancy; even wore an offbeat shirt with it to add some flavour. World's gone mad.

Tiger's celebrations you say? Could watch this every day of my life and twice on Sundays and still never tire. Greatest sporting moment contender without question, if only for how utterly iconic it was: