Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Was very pleasing to see Navas have control over a fair few attacking free kicks and corners

Two of the free kicks were undefendable, infact they were almost to good for the attackers chasing them as well

[tikay]

Gotta love Tighty's reports.

Sam in big brother whose vacuity and mundanity

Had to look up vacuity.


Total absence of matter; emptiness. 2. An empty space; a vacuum. 3. Total lack of ideas; emptiness of mind

For mundanity it simply said

anyone who watches Big Brother


Loved this, too. WTF it means I have no idea, but if someone told me that, I'd nod wisely.

first MLB catcher to hit a walk off Home run and a walk off triple

How do the Americans manage to get the right words in such a confusing order? A walk off triple

[Tal]

These I can do.

A walk off home run is a home run that wins the game there and then, so that's the home team I believe.

A triple is getting to third base, so a walk off triple is a hit that gets you to third base, but that also wins you the game.

[Waz1892]

20/08.  Lyon vs Sociedad. CL.

Anytime scorer.  Lacazette.  2/1.  He has scored 3 in 2 in a confident free-scoring team.  Lyon are 6/5 for the win at home.  Lyon have scored 7 goals in the 2 wins this season. 

Recommend Anytime scorer for £20.

Thanks.

I had intended to ask what the value basis of this bet was, but the price generally is 6/4 to 7/4, you suggested it at 2/1, but I can get 5/2 in two spots, so logically - I think - we must get on @ 5/2, which seems to me to be ool. (Ignoring the bWin faux paus)

We have £20 @ 5/2, BetVictor, Lacazette, ANYTIME Goalscorer, Lyon v Sociedad, CL Qualifier, this evening.

ON

(Details to follow, I cannot access BMU @ present to C & P the slip, it is down for maintenance))

Excellent sir. I must get into the habit of providing odds checker views rather than just the 1 site.

But we're on so its all good

[tikay]

These I can do.

A walk off home run is a home run that wins the game there and then, so that's the home team I believe.

A triple is getting to third base, so a walk off triple is a hit that gets you to third base, but that also wins you the game.

Why does it have to be the home team? Can't an away team have a walk off home run? I thought "home" was 4th base, not the venue?

Bit of an expert at Baseball, me, been to a game, did the singing & everything.

And its one, two, three strikes and out

At the olddddd balllll game

La la la lala


This photo has nothing to do with anything, but I think it is rather neat. A shilling says Tighty will try & work out what date it was.

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

The point is you have to win the game there and then and you can't do that if the other team still has a chance to bat. It's like in a penalty shootout, where going second means you can win or lose the game.

[TightEnd]

Recommendation

Cincinnati Bengals to win the NFL AFC Championship £50 at 16-1 Coral/PP



The History

The Bengals were formed when Cleveland Browns coach Paul Brown was fired and decided to set up a second AFL franchise in Ohio in the mid 60s

The Bengals were a laughing stock for nearly two decades. Under owner Paul Brown they were routinely the worst side in the NFL in the 1970s, low spenders and freqently lost the best players they drafted high because they were so poor. However influxes of talent meant that the team reached two superbowls in the 1980s, losing both to the pre-eminent team of the era, the 49ers

In 1990 Paul Brown passed away and his son Mike took over. It took a while but gradually the culture changed and the payroll became competitive. However Brown junior cocked it up. He was general manager and owner, lots of draft picks were busts and player discipline was a huge problem

Marvin Lewis

More recently Lewis was appointed Head Coach in 2003 and remains to this day, unprecedented longevity for one of the least stable NFL franchises historically.

It took quite a while to transform the roster of players, but this finally came to fruition, with an ageing but talented team in 2009 when they made the play offs again, sweeping the division. They lost in the first round of the Play offs but Lewis was named NFL coach of the year
 
In 2010, they bust again having a 4-12 record and a top 5 draft pick

In 2011-12 they reached the play offs in both years, losing in the Wild card round in each

The draft and the roster

The scouting department was thrown out in 2008 and major draft picks since have been tremendous with one key caveat

The franchise followed what I believe is the best model to build a franchise. Both OL and DL first, skill players later. It was this model that has led to the 49ers being so good, recently.

Some examples

9 Andre Smith (left tackle), Rey Maualaga (top run stuffing linebacker)

10 Jermaine Gresham (a top blocking TE), Carlos Dunlap and Gene Atkins (very good defensive front 7)

11 AJ Green (top 5 league WR) Andy Dalton QB (The caveat)

12 Kevin Zeitler (top guard) Devon Still (run stuffing D Tackle) Mohammed Sanu (WR counterpoint to Green)

13 Tyler Eifert (thread had money on him being selected 1st round, he was, pass catching TE) Gio Bernard (running back)

This approach has given the Bengals a loaded roster that has them set up to be very competitive for the next few years

The Caveat

This is about to be QB Andy Dalton's third year in the league, and so far his performance has been no more than slightly above average. This is not a Kaepernick or a Griffin, let alone a Manning or a Brady. This is a make or break year but he has never had so many weapons on his offense and should be superbly protected by one of the best Offensive Lines. he should be reaching maturity

It is not necessary to have a superstar QB to win a division, or the league. If the surrounding cast is good enough, a "bus driver" is acceptable

The Bengals have a superb defense, a good OL so can run the ball, a top receiver and plenty of young talent in skill positions

It is a defense built to stop the run, has star players (Atkins, Mualuaga) that are barely known outside NFL afficianados

The Division

The AFC North is a snot snorting, bruising festival of hard core football. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are always competitive, superbly managed and the fourth team the Cleveland Browns are coming from a long way back and many years of under-performance

The thing about this division is that everyone will beat each other. Except the Browns.

To win the division in the last five years, records have been (W-L)

2008    Pittsburgh Steelers    12–4–0    Won Super Bowl XLIII
2009    Cincinnati Bengals    10–6–0    Lost AFC Wild Card playoffs
2010    Pittsburgh Steelers    12–4–0    Lost Super Bowl XLV
2011    Baltimore Ravens    12–4–0    Lost AFC Championship Game
2012    Baltimore Ravens    10–6–0    Won Super Bowl XLVII

Once you win the division though, you start the play-offs at home, typically in bad winter weather, and have an advantage as you can see from how far these division winners get in play-offs

The division has for the past few years sent 2 or 3 teams ot the play-offs, via wild cards too

My favourites to win the division this year are the Bengals, but if they don't the Wild card is a likely back up

The Conferences

16 teams in each of the AFC and NFC

the NFC has, team for team, a lot more depth than the AFC

In the NFC I can make a case of varying strength for any of the following to win their division:

49ers, Seahawks, Saints, Bucs, Falcons, Packers, Bears, Lions, Vikings, Eagles, Redskins, Giants, Cowboys 12

In the AFC, I can make a case for

Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Denver, Indy, Houston 7

I am avoiding the NFC at this stage. Too competitive and I can't see a team that will get past the 49ers and Seattle

I can see the Bengals getting past the Broncos and the Patriots


The Market


AFC

Denver 3-1
Patriots 100-30
Texans 6-1
Steelers 11-1
Baltimore 12-1
Bengals 16-1
Colts 20-1
-----my cut off
Dolphins 20-1
Chargers 22-1

What are the bookies missing?

The Bengals operate in a small regional TV market. Whilst every team gets attention the Bengals get less than the East cost teams including Baltimore in their Division and Pittsburgh, a really big franchise in Pennsylvania

They are unfashionable

The roster has dramatically improved again through the draft this off-season. This coincides with the Ravens losing a lot of talent on offense.

The Bengals qualified for the play offs last season, are likely better and are priced to finish third in what will be a very competitive division where even losing 6 games gives you a shot at the play offs

The lack of strength of depth in the AFC means that the AFC East (Patriots then no one) and AFC West (Denver and then no one, though I love the Chiefs as a turn round in 2013) are unlikely to be having more than 2 teams with winning records

(there are always teams that dramatically improve season to season, but the AFC would need a lot of teams to do this to threaten the North division sending 2+ teams to the play offs)
 
Recommendation

Cincinnati Bengals to win the NFL AFC Championship £50 at 16-1 Coral/PP

[tikay]

20/08.  Lyon vs Sociedad. CL.

Anytime scorer.  Lacazette.  2/1.  He has scored 3 in 2 in a confident free-scoring team.  Lyon are 6/5 for the win at home.  Lyon have scored 7 goals in the 2 wins this season. 

Recommend Anytime scorer for £20.

Thanks.

I had intended to ask what the value basis of this bet was, but the price generally is 6/4 to 7/4, you suggested it at 2/1, but I can get 5/2 in two spots, so logically - I think - we must get on @ 5/2, which seems to me to be ool. (Ignoring the bWin faux paus)

We have £20 @ 5/2, BetVictor, Lacazette, ANYTIME Goalscorer, Lyon v Sociedad, CL Qualifier, this evening.

ON

(Details to follow, I cannot access BMU @ present to C & P the slip, it is down for maintenance))

Excellent sir. I must get into the habit of providing odds checker views rather than just the 1 site.

But we're on so its all good

You most certainly MUST!

The over/under on how many times the Elders gave me a bollocking for not checking prices must be around 800.

Originally I just thought "yeah yeah yeah, shut it, I'm not daft". (Delusion ftw)

But they were right. Look at it this way.

We have had approx 2,040 bets, & managed a return of about 4% profit. (There is a slight error in the Spready on that, but no matter for now).

Imagine if we had taken 17/4 or 15/8 for every bet, when we could have got 2/1 by looking around.....it would need Professor Doobs to work out how much difference that would make, but for 100% certain, our 4% PROFIT would morph into a x% LOSS.

So getting the best price really is the difference between profit & loss.

Anyway, here's the BetVictor Betslip for your bet. Good luck.


Olympique Lyonnais v Real SociedadAlexandre Lacazette (Anytime Goal Scorer)Odds: 5/2 Stake: 20.00Possible Return:  70.00

[tikay]

Tighty's NFL Recommend REBUFFED.

Coloured font? Stop it!

[tikay]

"bus driver" tho.

Like that.

[Doobs]

20/08.  Lyon vs Sociedad. CL.

Anytime scorer.  Lacazette.  2/1.  He has scored 3 in 2 in a confident free-scoring team.  Lyon are 6/5 for the win at home.  Lyon have scored 7 goals in the 2 wins this season. 

Recommend Anytime scorer for £20.

Thanks.

I had intended to ask what the value basis of this bet was, but the price generally is 6/4 to 7/4, you suggested it at 2/1, but I can get 5/2 in two spots, so logically - I think - we must get on @ 5/2, which seems to me to be ool. (Ignoring the bWin faux paus)

We have £20 @ 5/2, BetVictor, Lacazette, ANYTIME Goalscorer, Lyon v Sociedad, CL Qualifier, this evening.

ON

(Details to follow, I cannot access BMU @ present to C & P the slip, it is down for maintenance))

Excellent sir. I must get into the habit of providing odds checker views rather than just the 1 site.

But we're on so its all good

You most certainly MUST!

The over/under on how many times the Elders gave me a bollocking for not checking prices must be around 800.

Originally I just thought "yeah yeah yeah, shut it, I'm not daft". (Delusion ftw)

But they were right. Look at it this way.

We have had approx 2,040 bets, & managed a return of about 4% profit. (There is a slight error in the Spready on that, but no matter for now).

Imagine if we had taken 17/4 or 15/8 for every bet, when we could have got 2/1 by looking around.....it would need Professor Doobs to work out how much difference that would make, but for 100% certain, our 4% PROFIT would morph into a x% LOSS.

So getting the best price really is the difference between profit & loss.

Anyway, here's the BetVictor Betslip for your bet. Good luck.


Olympique Lyonnais v Real SociedadAlexandre Lacazette (Anytime Goal Scorer)Odds: 5/2 Stake: 20.00Possible Return:  70.00

You are right obviously, there are thin margins in betting.  

I think Dreenie's bet was a good example, I love Al Kazeem, and maybe he is a good thing.  But if we just wait until the offers come in we are adding 20% or so to the EV.  So we convert a zero EV bet into a +20% one, or more likely a -5% one in to a +15% one.  

I think this anytime scorer bet looks like a selective stats bet.  Last year he barely scored at all, which counterbalances the 3 in 2 this year.  The two previous games were against French sides, tonight they are playing a Spanish side.  

Of course, it is inevitable he scores tonight now, just still not sure it is value.

[tikay]

20/08.  Lyon vs Sociedad. CL.

Anytime scorer.  Lacazette.  2/1.  He has scored 3 in 2 in a confident free-scoring team.  Lyon are 6/5 for the win at home.  Lyon have scored 7 goals in the 2 wins this season. 

Recommend Anytime scorer for £20.

Thanks.

I had intended to ask what the value basis of this bet was, but the price generally is 6/4 to 7/4, you suggested it at 2/1, but I can get 5/2 in two spots, so logically - I think - we must get on @ 5/2, which seems to me to be ool. (Ignoring the bWin faux paus)

We have £20 @ 5/2, BetVictor, Lacazette, ANYTIME Goalscorer, Lyon v Sociedad, CL Qualifier, this evening.

ON

(Details to follow, I cannot access BMU @ present to C & P the slip, it is down for maintenance))

Excellent sir. I must get into the habit of providing odds checker views rather than just the 1 site.

But we're on so its all good

You most certainly MUST!

The over/under on how many times the Elders gave me a bollocking for not checking prices must be around 800.

Originally I just thought "yeah yeah yeah, shut it, I'm not daft". (Delusion ftw)

But they were right. Look at it this way.

We have had approx 2,040 bets, & managed a return of about 4% profit. (There is a slight error in the Spready on that, but no matter for now).

Imagine if we had taken 17/4 or 15/8 for every bet, when we could have got 2/1 by looking around.....it would need Professor Doobs to work out how much difference that would make, but for 100% certain, our 4% PROFIT would morph into a x% LOSS.

So getting the best price really is the difference between profit & loss.

Anyway, here's the BetVictor Betslip for your bet. Good luck.


Olympique Lyonnais v Real SociedadAlexandre Lacazette (Anytime Goal Scorer)Odds: 5/2 Stake: 20.00Possible Return:  70.00

You are right obviously, there are thin margins in betting.  

I think Dreenie's bet was a good example, I love Al Kazeem, and maybe he is a good thing.  But if we just wait until the offers come in we are adding 20% or so to the EV.  So we convert a zero EV bet into a +20% one, or more likely a -5% one in to a +15% one.  

I think this anytime scorer bet looks like a selective stats bet.  Last year he barely scored at all, which counterbalances the 3 in 2 this year.  The two previous games were against French sides, tonight they are playing a Spanish side.  

Of course, it is inevitable he scores tonight now, just still not sure it is value.

I was actually originally intending to rebuff tonight's ANYTIME bet, but I withered & dithered when I realised I could get 5/2, when it is 6/4 & 7/4 most places. In fact, redarmi has a sort of programme where he can translate Outright match betting into Goalscorer probability, but it's all a bit above my head.

Getting back to getting the best price possible, yes, a fantastic lesson for all of us, & especially for our new, & perhaps ONLY Lady Freddie, young Miss Nutty Dreenie.

ARE YOU LISTENING DREENIE?.....

Incredible really - the difference between profit & loss can be down to getting the best available price. The margin is that small.

Pure "punters" of course (been there) don't bother. 

[Bad Beat]

 Love that bet Tighty. It's less on Betfair for one thing so the prices shouldn't last long, but I too see this as not many runners and I think 10/1 would be closer to the real chance.

 Great spot, great bet.

[tikay]

Message for Dreenie.

See.....

I think Dreenie's bet was a good example, I love Al Kazeem, and maybe he is a good thing.  But if we just wait until the offers come in we are adding 20% or so to the EV.  So we convert a zero EV bet into a +20% one, or more likely a -5% one in to a +15% one. 

Now apply the "run it 10,000 times" equation I outlined yesterday.

Now, we invest £10,000, & instead of getting £9,000 in return, we get £11,000. The maths are not accurate, but it matters not. Do you see the logic now?

[horseplayer]

Stop your punting around
Better think of your future
Time you took oddschecker down
Creating problems with them over rounds

Dreenie, a message to you
Dreenie, a message to you


Had that in my head, no offence meant Dreenie