Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

In the US a gridiron player

- plays for his high school and is recruited to a college

- plays for his college for 3 or 4 years, and is then drafted to the NFL

The NFL at its heart is the sporting embodiment of socialism, in the most capitalist society in the world, a point often missed by many

The rich shall not become too rich and the poor shall be given the resources to be competitive/survive

Each year when the draft comes around the pool of players are available to draft

The NFL team with the worst record the previous season gets to draft first in each of seven rounds

The team that wins the superbowl drafts last in each round

So in theory the talent on each team equalisies

This, as well as coaching changes and recruiting players in free agency is why you so rarely get teams winning multiple superbowls year after year and why in any given season relative to the last up to half of the best teams the year before do not make the next play offs the next time

There are exceptions

talent and coaching can come together to make a Patriots, who make multiple superbowls

teams can be badly managed and draft poorly such that they waste the opportunity to draft the right talent eg Oakland raiders

but in essence the US system works to avoid an English premier league system where the top 4 will always be the top 4

distribution of TV money and the NFL draft all designed to make it as level playing field as possible

Brilliant, thanks.

So there can never be a situation such as we have in the Premier League where there is a huge skill & money gulf between the top 4 (Man U, Man C, Chelsea & Arsenal) & the minnows & also-rans?

Never and that is one of the huge attractions for many fans

Each of the 32 NFL teams have genuine star ("franchise") players and each have the opportunity to go from rock bottom to towards the top each year, and frequently do

Understanding the building of these rosters where everyone has to be in a $120m salary cap, and the draft is one of the KEY skills in spotting value in NFL betting, especially in season bets because it allows you to spot teams on the way up and teams on the way down way ahead of the herd.

Famous last words

[DungBeetle]

Does anyone else think Wigan are too short tonight at home to Doncaster at 1/2 ?

Donny beat Blackburn last week, and Wigan lost to Bournemouth.  I struggle to make any Championship team odds of 1/2 in a given game.  Not sure best way of approaching it though.  May just do a small lay on BF.

[horseplayer]

To be honest - the funniest example of this was ITV when the Premier League started and they were left with the new Football League Division 1.

Ian Saint John would just ignore the Premier League and any mention of promotion along the lines of "Championship contenders Wolves can cap a brilliant season by securing the title this afternoon".  The following season Wolves would never be mentioned again as if they had been incinerated following their Championship win and the mysterious Nottingham Forest would just arrive on the scene as if they had just been founded that summer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF6PB3fxgmE


love it

[TightEnd]

Does anyone else think Wigan are too short tonight at home to Doncaster at 1/2 ?

Donny beat Blackburn last week, and Wigan lost to Bournemouth.  I struggle to make any Championship team odds of 1/2 in a given game.  Not sure best way of approaching it though.  May just do a small lay on BF.

Wigan got stiffed at Bournemouth. the usual in any game, couple of marginal decisions against compounding

Wouldn't be taking 1/2, but not rushing to lay them in this one either I am afraid

[Tal]

Hi Tony,

I haven't read all the replies but if you took say two of your £25 quid free bets on Cincy to with the Conference and had maybe £125 quid on them for the Div then the staking is a bit squiffy but not terrible. They are obv related bets so one go well both go well.

The Kansas bet Rich has put up is a little like the Miami bet you had last week, they are likely to be the 2nd best team in their Div but the fav in the Div have had plenty of issues in the last few weeks. Champ Bailey will likely be out for an extended period for Denver too after getting a bad injury over the weekend. They have drifted from around 7.8/8.0 on BF to 8.4 after those problems in with Kansas getting a little shorter too, again not reflected really in the fixed odds markets.

You've lost me a bit there Phil, speak slowly please.

We have £50 @ 16/1, Corals, Bengals to win the Conf.

Now we want them to win the Div @ 23/10. How much would you recommend in that spot?

The easiest thing to do is to put a pony on it and be freerolling if when the Bengals win the division.

That's ice cream thinking, though, as the bet should relate to the juiciness of the price.

[DungBeetle]

Haha - that saint and greavsie sketch reminds me of another one where they had Endsleigh Goal of the Month.  They only had 3 contenders and one was a shot over the bar.

[TightEnd]

Australian team for tomorrow

Faulkner in for the walking wicket, Khawaja

Starc back in for Bird (odd, thought he bowled well at Durham, good news is it creates rough for Swann)

Watson to bat at 3 having been 1,2 and 6

Disappointingly for our Swann bet, Harris not rested and plays

[DungBeetle]

Top 5 looks much better.

Rogers, Warner, Watson, Clarke, Smith

Looks a long tail though with Haddin a bit scratchy, even if quite a few of them are useful with the bat.

[Tal]

Reports that a deal for bale has been agreed.

Coentrao moves the other way in part exchange for £15m. The total deal is £93m. Bwin 4/11 must be punished. Others 1/7 and sliding

Willian had been spotted in London for a medical.

[gherkin]

Top 5 looks much better.

Rogers, Warner, Watson, Clarke, Smith

Looks a long tail though with Haddin a bit scratchy, even if quite a few of them are useful with the bat.

Faulkner 50/1 to top score batting at 7 is way too big, pity we can't get an E/W bet on at that price. 

Pretty sure nobody should be 50/1 batting at 7 in the current Australian team, let alone a guy who averages over 30 in first class cricket and will be keen to impress on his debut

[BigAdz]

Reports that a deal for bale has been agreed.

Coentrao moves the other way in part exchange for £15m. The total deal is £93m. Bwin 4/11 must be punished. Others 1/7 and sliding

Willian had been spotted in London for a medical.

Who reports? Not the same rags that have been telling us for weeks what will happen in the transfer market and about 1/50th of it coming true.

Would want a bit more confirmation to be honest before I lumped on at that price. Don't doubt you mate, but heard it too often.


Edit; Look on SL website to see the update and the lead story is about Paulinho hoping he will stay...!

[horseplayer]

racing uk have just emailed saying that if you back a k with skybet you will get paid at 2/1 (presumably only through link on email)

some nice spam for Tikay there

Bet on Al Kazeem
at its current live odds

Get paid at 2/1
if it wins, we will pay your bet

top your account up
to the boosted odds of 2/1

[ripple11]

Warner plays (good) and bats 6 (not so good)

Bird does not play

Lyon plays for Agar


...and Australia win a toss.

Thanks Rich.

As we are at the start of the Month, the Spready is relatively uncluttered right now, so I was able to summarise our Ashes bets as follows. (clever me).....correct me if I am wrong, please. I'm really not sure how we stand with them, except I know we lead 2-0, which is required for our 5-0 Whitewash affair.


England to win the Series 5-0. £25 @ 5.4.

David Warner, Top Series Aussie Batter. £30 EW @ 25/1. (1/5, 1, 2, 3). Graham Swann, Top Series Wicket Taker, £24 @ 11/2. (FREE BET)

Michael Clarke, Top Aussie Batter, £50 @ 5/2.

Swann is joint top wicket taker with Anderson, 13 each. Siddle has 11

Clarke has 102, behind Watson 112 and Agar 130. Agar now dropped. Clarke is due.

All looks ok.

5-0 depends on this being a good toss to lose really. I suspect it might be

.....come on Mr.Warner, minimum century in the first innings for the e/w sweat 

[BigAdz]

FWIW

Got on the Lacazette jobbie earlier with BWIN, at the big price......just voided.....worth a try!

[BigAdz]

Not sure who our golf correspondent was that got involved in the "just had a kid" bets, but just noticed my fav golfer Dustbin Johnson got engaged this week(to Wayne Gretskys daughter!). Does that count?!

Coupled with the fact he won the event 2011 and top tenned last year, it wont take much for me to go in hard!!!