Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Thanks to all those who got me on, or offered to.

As to getting me on with Sky Bet, I am grateful for the offer, but I can never do that, not just for the obvious reasons, but some other stuff. Another day for that story. Gotta remain squeaky clean in all things.

So if ANY of those bets were with Sky Bet, the bet was not accepted.

I will leave the Eso portion off, that bet is 100% his none the thread, so just the two bets Doobs and Marky147 to adjust on your slates

If any of the Eso bet I said I would take was with Sky Bet, agreed, I cannot tke it,

I posted "booked" as they were going off but am sure Dubai will confirm we were on with B365 Yday and offered it for Karma so Fred is welcome.

Please take it as he is currently rubbing me down that  TFT dont even want my offer so they dont have the EsoWalsall runbad that comes with it  

I owe Fred £25

Ha!

As long as it was NOT with Sky Bet, BOOKED, & thank you.

[tikay]

William Hill are doing their mobile offer again.

Suggest £25s on each of the following
2.30 First Flight 2/1
3.05 Telescope 6/4
3.40 Al Kazeem 11/8  (<3 Dreenie)

I think they are all fairly obvious, but went for the Godolphin runner in the first rather than the favourite, as their 2 year olds seem to be running very well this season.

Reminder - we have First Flight in the next.

[TightEnd]

Anyone else excited?

Click to see full-size image.

£150 at 100/30 redarmi AL East winner

£40 at 12-1 redarmi AL Winner

£30 at 20-1 redarmi World Series winner

[Dubai]

Thanks to all those who got me on, or offered to.

As to getting me on with Sky Bet, I am grateful for the offer, but I can never do that, not just for the obvious reasons, but some other stuff. Another day for that story. Gotta remain squeaky clean in all things.

So if ANY of those bets were with Sky Bet, the bet was not accepted.

I will leave the Eso portion off, that bet is 100% his none the thread, so just the two bets Doobs and Marky147 to adjust on your slates

If any of the Eso bet I said I would take was with Sky Bet, agreed, I cannot tke it,

I posted "booked" as they were going off but am sure Dubai will confirm we were on with B365 Yday and offered it for Karma so Fred is welcome.

Please take it as he is currently rubbing me down that  TFT dont even want my offer so they dont have the EsoWalsall runbad that comes with it  

I owe Fred £25

Ha!

As long as it was NOT with Sky Bet, BOOKED, & thank you.

The clue that is wasnt with them was when Eso posted we had had a BET

[Acidmouse]

Anyone else excited?

Click to see full-size image.

£150 at 100/30 redarmi AL East winner

£40 at 12-1 redarmi AL Winner

330 at 20-1 redarmi World Series winner

No idea how but Giants beat Sox last night! still a very poor season for us seeing as we reigning champs

[tikay]

Thanks to all those who got me on, or offered to.

As to getting me on with Sky Bet, I am grateful for the offer, but I can never do that, not just for the obvious reasons, but some other stuff. Another day for that story. Gotta remain squeaky clean in all things.

So if ANY of those bets were with Sky Bet, the bet was not accepted.

I will leave the Eso portion off, that bet is 100% his none the thread, so just the two bets Doobs and Marky147 to adjust on your slates

If any of the Eso bet I said I would take was with Sky Bet, agreed, I cannot tke it,

I posted "booked" as they were going off but am sure Dubai will confirm we were on with B365 Yday and offered it for Karma so Fred is welcome.

Please take it as he is currently rubbing me down that  TFT dont even want my offer so they dont have the EsoWalsall runbad that comes with it  

I owe Fred £25

Ha!

As long as it was NOT with Sky Bet, BOOKED, & thank you.

The clue that is wasnt with them was when Eso posted we had had a BET

Lol, type slowly, you know I can't read fast.

Anyway, I know YOU can't get on with next door, I listened to you bashing them up on the podcast.

[tikay]

Anyone else excited?

Click to see full-size image.

£150 at 100/30 redarmi AL East winner

£40 at 12-1 redarmi AL Winner

£30 at 20-1 redarmi World Series winner

LOVE this.

Tell me (again) how many games they play, & when each division or whatever ends? October, was it?

[TightEnd]

142 games in the regular season so we are roughly 125 or so through that

Each of three division winners in each conference make the play offs, and two best runners up

So ten teams total

the two wild cards play each other in a one off match and play the team with the best record in a semi final, the other two division winners  play

then the AL/NL final, then the World Series

The World Series concludes in October, the divisions before the play offs in September

[tikay]

142 games in the regular season so we are roughly 125 or so through that

Each of three division winners in each conference make the play offs, and two best runners up

So ten teams total

the two wild cards play each other in a one off match and play the team with the best record in a semi final, the other two division winners  play

then the AL/NL final, then the World Series

The World Series concludes in October, the divisions before the play offs in September

Perfect, thanks.

So right now, it is the equivalent of Easter, in  English football - nearly there.

[TightEnd]

Clarke*      b Anderson    7

He batted as if blindfold walking on hot coals.

We go underdogs in that bet, I am afraid

[tikay]

In the next, the Great VoltigEUr, we are on both Telescope, & Foundry, I think. Probably.

[Doobs]

Al Kazeem has been weak most of its runs this season

Just a very un sexy horse as opposed to the Hannon/Hughes media machine were everything Hughsie sits on is a superstar

Ladbrokes are offering £25 back if you back a horse in the Juddmonte and Al Kazeem wins.  They are best of the bookies on Toronado at 13/8, so we must bet that too.  

FWIW you can beat 7/4 on Betfair, but the bookies are a bit like the Saint and Greavsie sketch earlier when it comes to mentioning Betfair.  

The only horse I have an eye on for a free Ladbrokes bet is Foundry in the 3.05.  Seems to have come a long way given that they could probably find a softer race in Ireland...

Thanks. Try explaning THAT to Dreenie......

We have £25 @ 13/8, Toronado, 3.05 York. FREE £25 BET if Al Kazeem wins.

ON



Toronado
15:40

13/8

 Singles - Race Winner

1 line @ £25.0 per line
.
Total Stake £25.00

Potential Return £65.62

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000400

Might try to explain it all later.  Got the two nippers with me.  Better not mention Trading Leather!  All makes sense in my head.

1.  Why is the Toronado bet good?  We got 13/8 with Best Odds Guaranteed.  Given this is a big race with only 6 runners, at SP the overound is only likely to be 10%.   So at worst we are probably only losing 10% on the main bet.  So at worst we probably lose £2.50 in the long run here.  So assuming the worst we convert our £25 to £22.50 long run.

But we get a refund of a free bet if Al Kazeem wins.  The chance of Al Kazeem wins is roughly 40%.   If that happens we get a free £25 bet.  If we use it well that is going to be worth at least £20.  So this part of the bet is worth .4 x £20 = £8

So we have swapped our £25 for £22.50 + £8.  So on this bet we get an expected return of 20%+

2.  Why is the Al Kazeem bet good?  We got 6/4 with Best Odds Guaranteed and free bet if 2nd.  At worst we lose 10% here, so at worst we lost £2.50 here.  (It is a bit of a stretch to assume that both the Al Kazeem and Toronado bets are both going to drift, but if we can use pessimistic assumptions and still make money we are crushing).

But we get a free bet if we are second.  I think it is probably something like 2/1 the horse is 2nd. So 33% of the time, we get £20 back.  So this part of the bet is worth £6.67/

So we have swapped our £25 for £22.50 + £6.67.  So on this bet we get an expected return of 15% +

3.  I think the Trading Leather bet is also good, because we get the 3rd place, but it is a bit more borderline.  Either way the thinking was good, and I am confident it was a good bet.

So overall we have 3 bets on 3 different horses that we can be reasonably sure that were all +EV.  Nobody is going to think this is remotely sexy, some will think it is lacking a bit of soul, and there aren't going to be many pages written about what a great bet we made.  

Alternatively we could have taken our betting bank and place it all on Al Kazeem 2 days ago at 5/4.  It may well start at bigger, it could even start shorter.  We may make 5% long run, we may lose 15% long run, but this is sexy betting and betting with your inner soul on display.   When it wins you are going to get a much bigger buzz than I will.
 
Everyone loves to make a really sexy bet every so often.  There isn't anyone on this board that wouldn't like to raise with KQ, cbet a low flop then shove all their chips in with a big 4 bet on an ace high river on a flushing board to make 2 pair fold.   To do it all at the final table of a big poker tournament with all the live reporters present must be some buzz.  

Despite all the above, cbetting a K high flop is what makes most of the money long term.  

[tikay]

In the 3.40, I'm completely confused, but I think we have.....

 
 
Trading Leather, £25 EW @ 9/2 (fifth odds, 3 places)

Toronado, £25 @ 13/8, FREE BET IF AL KAZEEM WINS

£25 @ 11/8, Al Kazeem, Free Bet if 2nd.

So, just the 3 runners in a 6 runner race, easy game.

[Nico29]

I think Big sam has a great chance in that market at 14's.

Beat Cardiff 2-0 at the weekend plus two winable games coming up.

Away to Newcastle isn't as daunting as it once was and finally they have a gimme at home to Stoke.

Thanks.

That's not a bad shout, Dom, but the fly in the ointment is the Newcastle game I would suggest. There may be a Newcastle backlash after the Man City debacle,  maybe the form is extra hot, & Newcastle were just battered by a very good team?

Anyway, it's deffo worth consideration. Look at it another way, perhaps. What price do you think West Ham will be v Newcastle? I'll admit I'm not a big fan of Sam Allardyce's Teams, think I saw someone whimsically describe him yesterday as nothing is his fault. Probably a wise judgement.

Later, you mentioned that the BMOTM may include results on Sept 1st. That would be wholly illogical, September 1st is not in August, but in football, you never know.

There must be a clear set of BMOTM Rules somewhere? All I can find is the Wiki Page, someone may find some clues by looking at previous awards, which are listed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League_Manager_of_the_Month

West ham for me would be a 2-1 shot v Newcastle, i see 5-2 is available with the books though.

I think the fact that it was Man city who bashed up Newcastle shouldn't cover up what a mess that club appears in as of now.

Pardew is the manager of the French 2XI with a has-been ex manager making stupid statements in the background and almost certainly proving a hindrance with transfers.  Cabaye looks on his way and if it wasn't for Krul's saves and Dzeko's misses it could have been cricket the other day.

I like big sam, like to go against the grain mainly myself, especially when betting for value.

Wasn't ness reccing a bet tbh, don't really do that on here myself, just like debating the merits of value of a price/market.

I agree with what your saying about the august motm being based on august, but it's a strange situation and i'd never predict those in charge of such a decision in football with any certainty.

[TightEnd]

In the 3.40, I'm completely confused, but I think we have.....

Foundry, £25 FREE BET @ 8/1
 
Trading Leather, £25 EW @ 9/2 (fifth odds, 3 places)

Toronado, £25 @ 13/8, FREE BET IF AL KAZEEM WINS

So, just the 3 runners in a 6 runner race, 4 if you count Al Kazeem, which gives us a freebie if it wins. Easy game.

No in the 3.40 we have Al Kazeem, Toronado and Trading Leather

In the 3.05 Foundry and Telescope