Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

In the 3.40, I'm completely confused, but I think we have.....

Foundry, £25 FREE BET @ 8/1
 
Trading Leather, £25 EW @ 9/2 (fifth odds, 3 places)

Toronado, £25 @ 13/8, FREE BET IF AL KAZEEM WINS

So, just the 3 runners in a 6 runner race, 4 if you count Al Kazeem, which gives us a freebie if it wins. Easy game.

No in the 3.40 we have Al Kazeem, Toronado and Trading Leather

In the 3.05 Foundry and Telescope

Yup, just realised, Edited it now.

This is all very confusing......

[tikay]

Al Kazeem has been weak most of its runs this season

Just a very un sexy horse as opposed to the Hannon/Hughes media machine were everything Hughsie sits on is a superstar

Ladbrokes are offering £25 back if you back a horse in the Juddmonte and Al Kazeem wins.  They are best of the bookies on Toronado at 13/8, so we must bet that too.  

FWIW you can beat 7/4 on Betfair, but the bookies are a bit like the Saint and Greavsie sketch earlier when it comes to mentioning Betfair.  

The only horse I have an eye on for a free Ladbrokes bet is Foundry in the 3.05.  Seems to have come a long way given that they could probably find a softer race in Ireland...

Thanks. Try explaning THAT to Dreenie......

We have £25 @ 13/8, Toronado, 3.05 York. FREE £25 BET if Al Kazeem wins.

ON



Toronado
15:40

13/8

 Singles - Race Winner

1 line @ £25.0 per line
.
Total Stake £25.00

Potential Return £65.62

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000400

Might try to explain it all later.  Got the two nippers with me.  Better not mention Trading Leather!  All makes sense in my head.

1.  Why is the Toronado bet good?  We got 13/8 with Best Odds Guaranteed.  Given this is a big race with only 6 runners, at SP the overound is only likely to be 10%.   So at worst we are probably only losing 10% on the main bet.  So at worst we probably lose £2.50 in the long run here.  So assuming the worst we convert our £25 to £22.50 long run.

But we get a refund of a free bet if Al Kazeem wins.  The chance of Al Kazeem wins is roughly 40%.   If that happens we get a free £25 bet.  If we use it well that is going to be worth at least £20.  So this part of the bet is worth .4 x £20 = £8

So we have swapped our £25 for £22.50 + £8.  So on this bet we get an expected return of 20%+

2.  Why is the Al Kazeem bet good?  We got 6/4 with Best Odds Guaranteed and free bet if 2nd.  At worst we lose 10% here, so at worst we lost £2.50 here.  (It is a bit of a stretch to assume that both the Al Kazeem and Toronado bets are both going to drift, but if we can use pessimistic assumptions and still make money we are crushing).

But we get a free bet if we are second.  I think it is probably something like 2/1 the horse is 2nd. So 33% of the time, we get £20 back.  So this part of the bet is worth £6.67/

So we have swapped our £25 for £22.50 + £6.67.  So on this bet we get an expected return of 15% +

3.  I think the Trading Leather bet is also good, because we get the 3rd place, but it is a bit more borderline.  Either way the thinking was good, and I am confident it was a good bet.

So overall we have 3 bets on 3 different horses that we can be reasonably sure that were all +EV.  Nobody is going to think this is remotely sexy, some will think it is lacking a bit of soul, and there aren't going to be many pages written about what a great bet we made.  

Alternatively we could have taken our betting bank and place it all on Al Kazeem 2 days ago at 5/4.  It may well start at bigger, it could even start shorter.  We may make 5% long run, we may lose 15% long run, but this is sexy betting and betting with your inner soul on display.   When it wins you are going to get a much bigger buzz than I will.
 
Everyone loves to make a really sexy bet every so often.  There isn't anyone on this board that wouldn't like to raise with KQ, cbet a low flop then shove all their chips in with a big 4 bet on an ace high river on a flushing board to make 2 pair fold.   To do it all at the final table of a big poker tournament with all the live reporters present must be some buzz.  

Despite all the above, cbetting a K high flop is what makes most of the money long term.  

Brilliant! Dreenie will be cross-eyed.

PS - KQ? You having a laugh? Fold pre.

[Tonji]

Vuelta....starts Saturday.

King of the Mountains. The KOM is generally won in the Vuelta by a rider from a lesser team not competing for the General Classification.

Rules are a bit complicated, but info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountains_classification_in_the_Vuelta_a_Espa%C3%B1a#Rules

This year the race will have 13 mountain stages, arguably tougher than the Tour & Giro. So I've looked for a rider in form, with a history of competing for the KOM, in a lesser team, Spanish, & not having ridden in the recent Tour.

Amets Txurruka (try pronouncing that!), the Caja Rural rider is having the best season of his life having won the mountains jersey at recent Vuelta a Burgos. This year has also seen him prominent in the mountains points completion at Norway & another win at Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco. The Pro Continental team will have this as a prime objective for the race. He has ridden the Vuelta five times all solid performances.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/king-of-the-mountains

Recommend £10.00. I've taken 13/2 on 365, but just noticed 7/1 available on Betfair.

[Simon Galloway]

It's not a sexy bet unless losing really stings.  Minimum having to walk 20 miles home, better still if it is to tell the (previous) owner of the car you borrowed that they no longer own it....

[DungBeetle]

England are overusing Broad/Swann/Andersen.  Seems they have lost confidence in the debutants already.  If the Aussies can play smart and keep wickets can see batting becoming quite easy later on as the main bowlers tire and they have to either play them at slower pace or have to resort to Kerrigan and Woakes.

[BigAdz]

Ledger Ledger Ledger..Oi Oi Oi

[DungBeetle]

"I like big sam, like to go against the grain mainly myself, especially when betting for value."

I agree with the going against the grain, but I think going against the grain is supporting Newcastle over the next few weeks?   I think they may be under-rated in the short term as people as the fact that they are in "crisis" is all over the media.  Ditto Arsenal.

[Doobs]

Dull wins the day, Foundry would have been fairly sexy.

[tikay]

In the next, the Great VoltigEUr, we are on both Telescope, & Foundry, I think. Probably.

WINNER

[exstream]

On phone and terrible at working things out at best of times but, if laying the under 2.5 goals market in arsenal game tonight at 2.2 and at the same time backing 0-0 at 14.5, 1-0 at 13.5, 0-1 at 12 and 1-1 at 7.8.
What's best outcomes and how much do you lose/win on £20 stakes for each result?

[Nico29]

"I like big sam, like to go against the grain mainly myself, especially when betting for value."

I agree with the going against the grain, but I think going against the grain is supporting Newcastle over the next few weeks?   I think they may be under-rated in the short term as people as the fact that they are in "crisis" is all over the media.  Ditto Arsenal.

Fair point.

I think the market hasn't reacted enough though.

West ham for me should be about a 2-1 shot and Newcastle should be nearer 6-4 than 11-10 in some spots.

Pretty sure by the weekend that will have happened.

[BigAdz]

Not sure how Mellish can say Foundry at for Leger is much more sensible than 4 for Telescope when he was beat fair and square and difference in experience is marginal. Suppose that's why he employed as an expert....

[tikay]

Vuelta....starts Saturday.

King of the Mountains. The KOM is generally won in the Vuelta by a rider from a lesser team not competing for the General Classification.

Rules are a bit complicated, but info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountains_classification_in_the_Vuelta_a_Espa%C3%B1a#Rules

This year the race will have 13 mountain stages, arguably tougher than the Tour & Giro. So I've looked for a rider in form, with a history of competing for the KOM, in a lesser team, Spanish, & not having ridden in the recent Tour.

Amets Txurruka (try pronouncing that!), the Caja Rural rider is having the best season of his life having won the mountains jersey at recent Vuelta a Burgos. This year has also seen him prominent in the mountains points completion at Norway & another win at Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco. The Pro Continental team will have this as a prime objective for the race. He has ridden the Vuelta five times all solid performances.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/king-of-the-mountains

Recommend £10.00. I've taken 13/2 on 365, but just noticed 7/1 available on Betfair.

Nice work Tonji, love these Cycling ones, we get a lot of mileage, pardon the pun. Think we had a bet on this last year, too?

We went with Betty.

£10 @ 8 (7/1), Betfair, Vuelta de Espana, King of the Mountains, Amets Txurruka.


ON

Placed (matched)   


Back (Bet For)

 
Vuelta a Espana 2013


Amets Txurruka Mountains Classification   
8  £10.00   £70.00

Ref: 29138408758M Matched: 15:15 21-Aug-13

[Dubai]

Do we really need paragraphs and pages of why the offers are +ev? Just post them, list whatever the bets are and Tikay should snap do it. Discussing it is beyond boring and absolutely pointless as its clear as daylight they are +ev, so nothing needs to be said on that subject- the downsides are some firms then restrict you and label you a nit/potential future arber/custom that don't want. And the obvious downside is the majority of these offers are £25 a pop. Hardly going to set the pulse racing but its fine as a background base that requires no discussion. It obviously also has ZERO relevance on any other bet suggested on the race as some people keep insinuating.

[tikay]

Do we really need paragraphs and pages of why the offers are +ev? Just post them, list whatever the bets are and Tikay should snap do it. Discussing it is beyond boring and absolutely pointless as its clear as daylight they are +ev, so nothing needs to be said on that subject- the downsides are some firms then restrict you and label you a nit/potential future arber/custom that don't want. And the obvious downside is the majority of these offers are £25 a pop. Hardly going to set the pulse racing but its fine as a background base that requires no discussion. It obviously also has ZERO relevance on any other bet suggested on the race as some people keep insinuating.

It was done at my request to try & explain to a Fred newbie, Dreenie, who was struggling to grasp it.