Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Bet 365 offer:

1. Bet up to £50 on the United Chelsea game
2. Bet up to the same stake in-play
3. If that in-play bet loses, you will get your stake refunded.

Match odds are:

United 29/20
Draw 12/5
Chelsea 21/10

Bet fifty on the shortest price and then the same on the second shortest price in-play.

If united win, we get £72.50 + our stakes back
If it is a draw, we get one stake back, so lose £50
If Chelsea win, we get £155 (105 plus stake on chelsea)

Think I'm doing this the right way around.

Advise loudly otherwise, please.

Always pick something big priced with your extra bet.  You'll win less often, but your EV is much better in the long run. 

[Tal]

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

[malt vinegar]

Bet 365 offer:

1. Bet up to £50 on the United Chelsea game
2. Bet up to the same stake in-play
3. If that in-play bet loses, you will get your stake refunded.

Match odds are:

United 29/20
Draw 12/5
Chelsea 21/10

Bet fifty on the shortest price and then the same on the second shortest price in-play.

If united win, we get £72.50 + our stakes back
If it is a draw, we get one stake back, so lose £50
If Chelsea win, we get £155 (105 plus stake on chelsea)

Think I'm doing this the right way around.

Advise loudly otherwise, please.

yeh thats how it would work

with this offer i like to bet 50 on bet365 on odd goals then 50 somewhere else on even goals

and have 50 inplay on anything the spider picks out, which costs 3 or 4 quid ( usually decent price anytime scorer )

will get myself and the spider an ice cream apiece if it comes in

[redarmi]

Another huge factor in favour of the Inverness bet is that Celtic now have a huge, possibly season defining, game on Weds night which they need to win by a couple of goals.  I would be surprised if they risked anyone marginal and there could be a degree of overlooking this game.  The Champs League is hugely important for Celtic now there are no games with Rangers.

[BigAdz]

Maybe feeling a little bruised and by the end of the day will now doubt have a whole carton of eggs on my face, but I notice we have 4 times as much on an unraced horse at an e/w price where we wont even get our money back if it doesn't win, we have also missed all the juicier prices......but not a word.

I appreciate it has come from an Elder, but still.......

It was your suggestion to have £5 EW, if you had suggested more, I'd have bet more.

A little fiver ew at best early odds is probably worth a go

Not really what I am getting at. I am happy at a small interest before everyone jumps on the bandwagon. Its the ratios I am questioning.

I have had a rebuff over a horse I put up when it was a 16 runner field. After a long courtship and study, I finally asked her out, but only for an "ice cream". I'm not too bothered if its liked or not. I put it up because I fancy it, and think it can win based on my earlier synopsis. Very much like Horsey does with his recommends.

Elder hears a whisper on an unraced horse that has halved in price, he takes her out on a blind date, cos someone says she looks tasty, for a nice meal, and its not questioned by anyone.

We all know his will win, mine will come last, but just pointing it out.

I'm afraid I don't know where you are going with this.

I placed the amount you suggested, & without hesitation. (And got a ticking off from His Lordship!). 

The general rule here is that we place the amount recommended, that is the default.

Bobby's suggestion was accepted without question by me, nobody else. He does not generally give us horses, but there has been a lot of rumours about the animal in question, & he shared them with me.

I'll get LOTS of these wrong, I will not complain though, it's the nature of the beast. 

Let us hope they both win.

I just find it amusing how some recommends get jumped all over because they come from certain people, yet others could ask for a tenner on Elvis being spotted on The Old Kent Road today and everyone nods sagely. Nothing more, nothing less.

Lunch time.

I think when i last saw tipsters records in the spreadsheet you were 2/3 hundred in the red. Doobs was about 8 hundred up. Dubai was up 3 hundred or so.

Camel and Redarmi make a living betting i believe so their opinions have a background.

Real money is at stake and it's not yours.

I'm up but don't always get placed. I also don't always agree with stakes on some bets especially hector but that has been looked at.

Put up enough good bets and you can stick two fingers up to your critics. Keep being and dick and keep losing and your critics will keep sticking two fingers up to you.

Saddest part of all is that you're dragging the tone of the thread down.

Sandy

Oh dear, a little dig last week and one jumps out of their box.

If you look outside of Fred you will see my recommends on Blonde golf and racing threads would have made you way way more than the red figure on here, but some days I just can't be bothered to face the inevitable challenges to my suggestions, so I post elsewhere.
Not sure who suddenly made you Forum Police Officer, but if I feel something isn't right i will say so. Many on here don't wish to rock the boat, neither do I, but if i have an opinion I will express it. Its not  a question of sticking two fingers up to anyone, I like it here.

I don't really care if my bets get placed or not. I stick up what i hope will make people a few bob. I am on regardless of Fred accepting or rejecting(and its real money!) and that wont change.

I also dabble in riskier waters, so would expect variances in my choices. Strings of golf match ups at cramped odds do little to excite me, but I don't go around telling you you're a dick, regardless of your pompous manner. I at least try to have a bit of a laugh along the way, you are just outright rude Sir.

[edgascoigne]

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

** THE WHOLE ISSUE CENTRES AROUND STAKES BEING NON-RETURNABLE ON FREE BETS **

Imagine you have a £100 free bet.

For the sake of argument imagine the odds are 'true'.....

£100 @ 1/2 will net you £50 66.67% of the time, nothing 33.33% of the time, for an implied value of £33.33.

£100 @ 9/1 will net you £900 10% of the time, nothing 90% of the time, for an implied value of £90.



It's convoluted by the fact that (a) things are generally priced closer to the 'true' price at the shorter end of the market and (b) with longer priced selections it can take you longer to see a return and you feel like you're just p1ssing them up the wall......but in essence you want to look for something at a decent price that is close to the 'true price' - the best (easily accessible and comprehensible) guide is a liquid exchange market. Decent racing is good (especially when you add in BOG) and correct score markets can work well too amongst others.

[Tal]

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

** THE WHOLE ISSUE CENTRES AROUND STAKES BEING NON-RETURNABLE ON FREE BETS **

Imagine you have a £100 free bet.

For the sake of argument imagine the odds are 'true'.....

£100 @ 1/2 will net you £50 66.67% of the time, nothing 33.33% of the time, for an implied value of £33.33.

£100 @ 9/1 will net you £900 10% of the time, nothing 90% of the time, for an implied value of £90.



It's convoluted by the fact that (a) things are generally priced closer to the 'true' price at the shorter end of the market and (b) with longer priced selections it can take you longer to see a return and you feel like you're just p1ssing them up the wall......but in essence you want to look for something at a decent price that is close to the 'true price' - the best (easily accessible and comprehensible) guide is a liquid exchange market. Decent racing is good (especially when you add in BOG) and correct score markets can work well too amongst others.

That's a lot simpler than I expected.

This isn't a free bet per se, though. Or is it?

[horseplayer]

anybody listen to stephen fry on tms at lunch?

He put me of the job of measuring for some new curtains but it was a fantastic listen

[edgascoigne]

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

** THE WHOLE ISSUE CENTRES AROUND STAKES BEING NON-RETURNABLE ON FREE BETS **

Imagine you have a £100 free bet.

For the sake of argument imagine the odds are 'true'.....

£100 @ 1/2 will net you £50 66.67% of the time, nothing 33.33% of the time, for an implied value of £33.33.

£100 @ 9/1 will net you £900 10% of the time, nothing 90% of the time, for an implied value of £90.



It's convoluted by the fact that (a) things are generally priced closer to the 'true' price at the shorter end of the market and (b) with longer priced selections it can take you longer to see a return and you feel like you're just p1ssing them up the wall......but in essence you want to look for something at a decent price that is close to the 'true price' - the best (easily accessible and comprehensible) guide is a liquid exchange market. Decent racing is good (especially when you add in BOG) and correct score markets can work well too amongst others.

That's a lot simpler than I expected.

This isn't a free bet per se, though. Or is it?

Yeah it still holds.

Let's say you find a 1/2 shot in play and have a 'risk free' ton at it.... 2/3 of the time you win £50, the other 1/3 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £33.33

If you punt a 9/1 shot in play with a 'risk free' ton.... 1/10 of the time you win £900, the other 9/10 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £90

Same difference

[Snowball]

Another huge factor in favour of the Inverness bet is that Celtic now have a huge, possibly season defining, game on Weds night which they need to win by a couple of goals.  I would be surprised if they risked anyone marginal and there could be a degree of overlooking this game.  The Champs League is hugely important for Celtic now there are no games with Rangers.

Before Tuesday I'd have said ICT were worth a punt but their price seems to be lower than I'd like plus this Celtic team tend to follow a bad result up with a good one.
Having said that I would very rarely be betting Celtic at Home in the League especially after Europe.

[Tal]

Merci

[edgascoigne]

Merci

C'est moi.

[horseplayer]

time of first at York suggests good to soft ground

[tikay]

anybody listen to stephen fry on tms at lunch?

He put me of the job of measuring for some new curtains but it was a fantastic listen

Yup, I was stuck in traffic, & having a bit of, for me, a rare fume, & he calmed me down a treat.

[Tal]

Cricket cryptic update:

Click to see full-size image.

Fastest finger first, please.