Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Only applies on these races: York 2:40, Goodwood 2:55 and York 3:50

Can i suggest 25 ew on totesport for mister impatience in the 2:40?  Along with best365 totesport are the only bookie who pay 1/4 of the odds. There has been a lot of money for this hourse pre hugh taylor putting it up this morning so their is faith in it, also being a hugh taylor selection it may well have been overbet so im unsure as to their being value in the current price.

However current top price with bookies, (its only 7.2 on betfair) place market on betfair is 1.95.  1/4 odds on a 6/1 shot beats that, plus if it is second you get £25 back as a free bet, 3rd you make a small profit but without the money back for second and first then its a nice winner.

I'm sure some maths  guys would be able to explain it better than I have, or even tell me if its wrong, but it looks like a nice bet to me.

Anyone care to comment on this?  I still think it's a good bet at 11/2 now, betfair price to place is currently 1.91, so surely an each way play here is the way to go with the added bonus of money back as a free bet if second and beating the betfair price.

Was 12/1 this morning, only Great Hall ahead of him in the market that is now a NR.

I'm pretty clueless, but even as a mug punter I would still feel I had missed out too much on the price.

[tikay]

Fulham +0.5 is 2.15 on 12Bet and 2.13 on Pinnacle
Villa +0.5 is 2.09 on 12Bet and 2.08 on Pinnacle


Let me know if you want anything on, I lumped on them both an hour or so ago

Thanks, but we are out of time, the match starts in 15 minutes, so I'll just have to forsake a touch of price & go the Betty route.

[a.sparrow]

sparrow only thing is the betfair place price is 4 places, so you can't compare - don't know about win value

That explains that then! i should be more observant in future, thought i'd found a good one.

Looks like you have a good bet Marky - I obv missed a lot of value, i just thought with the offer and beating the betfair place price (which i was mistaken on due to betfair not changing their place terms with non runners) that it was a good bet with some value left.  I'm still on it but i doubt its a recommend for fred now  my bad.

[redarmi]

Sunderland next home games

Man United
Chelsea
Arsenal
Newcastle
City
Liverpool
Spurs

Definitely possible they could lose all of the above, Id say average points would be 4. Away from home is always hard in the premiership and if they are bottom of the league after 15 games the fans will likely turn on Di Canio. He can blow at any moment and with a new chairman that brought in 13 new players so far he could easily shit himself and make a panic decision.


He is 8-1 so perhaps not value, but I feel like he is certain to fall to at least 4-1 or perhaps better so would be an excellant spot to punt big now with the intention of laying in the future?

What do people think?

I quite like the logic to the bet but I don't really like the idea of betting it to lay later.  If he lost all of these games or even got 2-3 points I would suggest he would be great value at 3/1 to be first to be fired.

[TightEnd]

sparrow only thing is the betfair place price is 4 places, so you can't compare - don't know about win value

That explains that then! i should be more observant in future, thought i'd found a good one.

Looks like you have a good bet Marky - I obv missed a lot of value, i just thought with the offer and beating the betfair place price (which i was mistaken on due to betfair not changing their place terms with non runners) that it was a good bet with some value left.  I'm still on it but i doubt its a recommend for fred now  my bad.

what makes you think it might win? you haven't talked form, the make up of the race or any other variables/reasearch. or was it just a price thing?

[Marky147]

sparrow only thing is the betfair place price is 4 places, so you can't compare - don't know about win value

That explains that then! i should be more observant in future, thought i'd found a good one.

Looks like you have a good bet Marky - I obv missed a lot of value, i just thought with the offer and beating the betfair place price (which i was mistaken on due to betfair not changing their place terms with non runners) that it was a good bet with some value left.  I'm still on it but i doubt its a recommend for fred now  my bad.

I may have had a good bet if I wasn't welded to my scratcher at 8am

[Marky147]

sparrow only thing is the betfair place price is 4 places, so you can't compare - don't know about win value

That explains that then! i should be more observant in future, thought i'd found a good one.

Looks like you have a good bet Marky - I obv missed a lot of value, i just thought with the offer and beating the betfair place price (which i was mistaken on due to betfair not changing their place terms with non runners) that it was a good bet with some value left.  I'm still on it but i doubt its a recommend for fred now  my bad.

what makes you think it might win? you haven't talked form, the make up of the race or any other variables/reasearch. or was it just a price thing?

Hugh Taylor put it up, which was good enough for me (He put it up at 9/1 though)

This is his write up -

I've been waiting for MISTER IMPATIENCE to run again on very testing ground for some time, and it looks like he will get his chance in the Melrose Handicap at York today (2.40). He has already been well backed last night and this morning - some of the prices yesterday evening were remarkable given the forecast - but he still looks the most interesting runner in the race given the demolition jobs he inflicted on his rivals on the last two occasions he encountered really testing ground; in particular, he skipped through the ground when it was really testing at Doncaster on his 3yo reappearance, the finish bearing more relation to a soft-ground novice hurdle than a 1m2f handicap (had also bolted up on soft ground at Nottingham as a juvenile). He ran quite well in the Chester Vase when the ground wasn't quite so soft, and although his form has been up and down since, 1m6f on very testing ground should be right up his street; plenty of the 3yos here might not handle the ground, but he's likely to relish it.

[TightEnd]

sparrow only thing is the betfair place price is 4 places, so you can't compare - don't know about win value

That explains that then! i should be more observant in future, thought i'd found a good one.

Looks like you have a good bet Marky - I obv missed a lot of value, i just thought with the offer and beating the betfair place price (which i was mistaken on due to betfair not changing their place terms with non runners) that it was a good bet with some value left.  I'm still on it but i doubt its a recommend for fred now  my bad.

what makes you think it might win? you haven't talked form, the make up of the race or any other variables/reasearch. or was it just a price thing?

Hugh Taylor put it up, which was good enough for me (He put it up at 9/1 though)

This is his write up -

I've been waiting for MISTER IMPATIENCE to run again on very testing ground for some time, and it looks like he will get his chance in the Melrose Handicap at York today (2.40). He has already been well backed last night and this morning - some of the prices yesterday evening were remarkable given the forecast - but he still looks the most interesting runner in the race given the demolition jobs he inflicted on his rivals on the last two occasions he encountered really testing ground; in particular, he skipped through the ground when it was really testing at Doncaster on his 3yo reappearance, the finish bearing more relation to a soft-ground novice hurdle than a 1m2f handicap (had also bolted up on soft ground at Nottingham as a juvenile). He ran quite well in the Chester Vase when the ground wasn't quite so soft, and although his form has been up and down since, 1m6f on very testing ground should be right up his street; plenty of the 3yos here might not handle the ground, but he's likely to relish it.

ok, but would help to have some idea of this when the rec is put up. I was just guessing reading the receommendation as to what the actual betting case was!

[tikay]

Lay Arsenal (sigh) £70@1.9
Lay Liverpool £125@1.91

The Arsenal Lay - jeez, I don't like that, someone told me Fulham are dross, but it's all about value I assume, so we are on. Starts in 5 minutes, so can't mess around.

LAY Arsenal, £70 @ 1.93, Betfair.

ON

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 

Fulham v Arsenal

Arsenal Match Odds

1.93

£70.00

£65.10
 



Ref: 29222790913M Matched: 12:42 24-Aug-13

[TightEnd]

I quite like the Sunderland idea too, anything can happen with PDC

Except it was said on here that Altidore is a far better player than when in the PL Last, and that Giaccherini was a great signing...so I wouldn't be rushing to judgements that all the players brought in are not good enough etc

that said I compare the Sunderland fixtures as above and 8-1 with Pardew at 3-1 and these fixtures and I think PDC is better value of the two if you are going to punt that market

Premier League    

Newcastle V West Ham
   Sat 24 Aug    15:00    Preview Newcastle Vs West Ham
   League Cup - Second Round    

Morecambe V Newcastle
   Wed 28 Aug    19:45    
   Premier League    

Newcastle V Fulham
   Sat 31 Aug    15:00    
September 2013
Show last 5 matches and coverage    Competition    Fixture    Date    Kick-off    Status
   Premier League    

Aston Villa V Newcastle
   Sat 14 Sep    15:00    
   Premier League    

Newcastle V Hull
   Sat 21 Sep    15:00    
   Premier League    

Everton V Newcastle
   Mon 30 Sep    20:00    
October 2013

   Premier League    

Cardiff V Newcastle
   Sat 5 Oct    15:00    
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Newcastle V Liverpool
   Sat 19 Oct    12:45    
   Premier League    

Sunderland V Newcastle
   Sun 27 Oct    16:00    
November 2013
Show last 5 matches and coverage    Competition    Fixture    Date    Kick-off    Status
   Premier League    

Newcastle V Chelsea
   Sat 2 Nov    12:45    
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Tottenham V Newcastle
   Sun 10 Nov    12:00    
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Newcastle V Norwich
   Sat 23 Nov    15:00    
   Premier League    

Newcastle V West Brom
   Sat 30 Nov    17:30    
December 2013
Show last 5 matches and coverage    Competition    Fixture    Date    Kick-off    Status
   Premier League    

Swansea V Newcastle
   Tue 3 Dec    19:45    
   Premier League    

Man Utd V Newcastle
   Sat 7 Dec    15:00    
   Premier League    

Newcastle V Southampton
   Sat 14 Dec    15:00    
   Premier League    

Crystal Palace V Newcastle
   Sat 21 Dec    15:00    
   Premier League    

Newcastle V Stoke
   Thu 26 Dec    15:00    
   Premier League    

Newcastle V Arsenal
   Sat 28 Dec    15:00

[tikay]

Lay Arsenal (sigh) £70@1.9
Lay Liverpool £125@1.91

Better to play on the Asian handicaps if you are going to play here as I assume Tikay is on 5% commish

Has Tikay got a Pinnacle account yet?

If not, why not?

Umm, no.

Bla bla bla, excuse excuse excuse.

= Forgot.

Self-admonishment & flagellation duly commenced.

[exstream]

I missed podcast, I assume it was on there, how is laying arsenal value?
I assumed betfair prices were mostly always spot on.

[tikay]

Lay Arsenal (sigh) £70@1.9
Lay Liverpool £125@1.91

LAY Liverpool, (v Villa), £125 @ 1.91, BetFair.

ON

Fixtures 24 August / Aston Villa v Liverpool / Match Odds  Liverpool Lay 29223033884  24-Aug-13
12:48    1.91 125.00  1.9 24-Aug-13 12:48 

[tikay]

Lunchtime kickoff is Fulham v Havearsenalspentanymoneyyet.com

Dimitar Berbatov scored first nine times last season; more than anyone else.

He's 9/1 with Paddy P and Billy Hilly. Some go as stingy as 13/2 6/1.

Each way love for a tenner?

Missed it, time issues, but hope it gets home for you.

[a.sparrow]

sparrow only thing is the betfair place price is 4 places, so you can't compare - don't know about win value

That explains that then! i should be more observant in future, thought i'd found a good one.

Looks like you have a good bet Marky - I obv missed a lot of value, i just thought with the offer and beating the betfair place price (which i was mistaken on due to betfair not changing their place terms with non runners) that it was a good bet with some value left.  I'm still on it but i doubt its a recommend for fred now  my bad.

what makes you think it might win? you haven't talked form, the make up of the race or any other variables/reasearch. or was it just a price thing?

As said in my OP it was the combination of an offer, plus top price of any bookmaker as well as being one of only 2 bookmakers tht were offering 1/4 odds top 3 rather than the rest 1/5 odds top 3.  So far the money back as second offers have only been utilised as win bets, I thought this was a good spot to use an each way bet on them and get the win part returned if it came second.  The win price at the time was only 0.2 short of betfair and also there is no commission so I didn't think it was a bad bet at all.  Unfortunately I hadn't realised betfair place terms hadn't  changed from the original top 4 when I said it best the betfair place price.

Also mentioned the value may have been gone on the price as there had been a lot of money for it and Hugh put it up and as he is such a good judge the price may even be over bet when he puts his picks up.  As for the form, all the bookies who price t up know that already and as said in this tread numerous times bare past form will always be in the price so we probably won't find an edge there.