Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Who said, on this thread.......?


"Don't go mad on the stakes, tikay"?

Bram Stoker?

Nope. It was a thread Elder.

Really made myself laugh then. I think I must be in a silly mood.

[tikay]

"Don't go mad on the stakes, tikay"..........

[tikay]

BigAdz?

Behave.

Five nil, five nil, five nil, five nil......

[Tal]

Robbie  Williams question on pointless now, tikay.

[BigAdz]

What have I done now?!

[tikay]

Villa 0 Liverpool 1

[BigAdz]

I notice Chamakh is off the mark.

One more and we can expect to get paid out.

[exstream]

I missed podcast, I assume it was on there, how is laying arsenal liverpool value?
I assumed betfair prices were mostly always spot on.

I think it is because the asian markets bet a lot on Liverpool and brought in their price to something that isn't correct.

Won't the asian market bet a lot every weekend, why no lay of them last week?

[Spudy]

Go on Verona, all we need is for juventus to lose points to Sampdoria tonight, and we are in pretty good shape with napolis charge at the Serie A title.

[Karabiner]

I'm not completely convinced by Mignolet he makes routine saves look hard.

[Tal]

I missed podcast, I assume it was on there, how is laying arsenal liverpool value?
I assumed betfair prices were mostly always spot on.

I think it is because the asian markets bet a lot on Liverpool and brought in their price to something that isn't correct.

Won't the asian market bet a lot every weekend, why no lay of them last week?

I seem to recall a view towards the end of last season that the markets were adjusting better (perhaps some of the bigger sports betters were ploughing into the lay, so there was less need for the bookies artificially to push the lines?), so the lay was much less attractive.

[Doobs]

I missed podcast, I assume it was on there, how is laying arsenal liverpool value?
I assumed betfair prices were mostly always spot on.

I think it is because the asian markets bet a lot on Liverpool and brought in their price to something that isn't correct.

Won't the asian market bet a lot every weekend, why no lay of them last week?

Maybe this week was more attractive? Maybe Dubai was washing his hair?

It isn't going to help in a discussion of whether this bet was attractive though is it?  1.91 looked very good value to me FWIW.

[pleno1]

                                  Mignolet
  

                      Kompany   Vertognen


Hazard       Fellani   Dembele   Kevin De Bruyne


              
             Lukaku     Benteke


Mirallas
Witsel
Thibaut Courtois
 Nacer Chadli  (spurs new signing)


The midfield is as good as you will find, Lukaku and Benteke are absolute beasts. Kompany one of the best defenders in the world. Hazard one of the best attacking players in the world. Fellani absolutely solid and De Bruyne looks great too. Dembele is a great player and they have pace and strength everywhere

Recebt results very impressive.


Friendly 6 February 2013 Belgium  2 – 1  Slovakia Bruges, Belgium
2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying 22 March 2013 Macedonia  0 – 2  Belgium Skopje, Macedonia
2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying 26 March 2013 Belgium  1 – 0  Macedonia Brussels, Belgium
Friendly 29 May 2013 United States  2 – 4  Belgium Cleveland, United States
2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying 7 June 2013 Belgium  2 – 1  Serbia Brussels, Belgium
Friendly 14 August 2013 Belgium  0 – 0  France


They are currently leaders of their fifa wold cup group

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_UEFA_Group_A

Spain  - Gettign older, got ran over by Brazil recently
Italy 20s . Not for me, not enough quality
Brazil - Obvious favourite but short price
Argentina  Messi obv incred but seems to not be great on international stage and behind him isnt amazing
England 25s - lol


Belgium are 20-1 which I think is a good and fair price. I think by the time they qualify they will get backed heavily as I imagine Hazard, Fellani (especially if at Man United) Lukaku, Kompnay, Mignolet and De Bruyne to have the best seasons of their careers, whilst Demebele and Chadli coulddefinitely perform well too.

I think we could bet outright, or alternatively bet to lay if they qualify through their first group as they dont have as much experience and their odds will be slashed very short and we can green out nicely.

[Karabiner]

^^^

If they could only find a couple of full-backs.

[horseplayer]

fancy another one tonight

BALADY 7.45 WINDSOR (current best price 28-1 vcbet) £10 win

I have watched with interest all of the ex John Dunlop horses this season with the expectation they may improve for leaving him (he had a poor last few seasons).

This has not happened as much as i thought it would but regardless of that this horse is now very well handicapped and has something it has not for its current stable some cut in the ground.

The trainer has booked Adam Kirby once in the past 3 seasons (horse won) and his booking tonight caught my eye.

Baladys only meaningful run this season was over tonights course and distance in June when a respectable 2nd in the same grade on firmish ground.

Tonights race is almost certainly better than that one with unexposed rivals and more depth. The horse won a fairly decent maiden at Goodwood for Dunlop on soft ground and has never faced that ground since, that run on "figures" was the best of the horses career and if as expected improving 3 or 4lbs for returning to a softer surface tonight she can get in the mix.

The horse has also been keen in a number of races so the first time hood should help on that score.

POSITIVES :

Well handicapped

Course, distance and ground fine

Possible positive jockey booking

NEGATIVES :

Has shown temperament a few times.

Unexposed rivals from top trainers (Charlton and Morrison mainly)


Summary

At the price there are enough positives for a modest bet tonight.

The Favourite has never faced ground like this and may be spared a hard race if not in contention, having said that she is bred to be much better than 66and is an obvious worry.

Hughie Morrison has two with similar profiles, neither seem overly popular in the market early on but either or could be better than there marks.