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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16368859 times)
tikay
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« Reply #50715 on: August 26, 2013, 09:49:31 AM »

The research for the Ashes

I do quite a bit of work around the County Circuit, and in passing ten days or so ago I got talking to a County Groundsman at The Oval, about a piece I have to do.

Anyway, I did not realise until then, the following

- Over the winter the ECB ordered and paid for upgrades of the drainage systems at all English Test Grounds

Why?

Because last summer's bad weather lost them significant revenue they wanted to improve ground infrastructures such that if play was delayed by weather it was less likely that full days play were lost (full refunds to paying customers with no play, partial refunds if less than 10 overs play in a day at Test Matches) and play would resume quicker than previously

All Test Grounds put the new systems in, and the effect has been seen this summer. Delays are shorter and in the Champions Trophy for example, played in grim weather, several games have been played where last year games would have been abandoned

So?

Two effects

- drainage systems make the pitches drier, ceteris paribus
- when play resumes, damp conditions are for shorter periods than previously

the effects of that?

- spinners! dry pitches, dusty etc even in what is another bad summer

In the New Zealand Test Series the NZ part time spinner Kane Williamson ragged it square on day 2 and raised eyebrows

Swann was a danger, and only the inept NZ batting meant he didn't come into play later on, as Anderson and Broad had taken all the wickets by then

At Headingley as we know..Swann took 10 wickets

In the CT, 62 wickets fell to spin in bad weather...yes we have Ashwin, Herera, Ajmal etc but that is a huge number

At Edgbaston yesterday Mark Ramprakash said

"I have been coming to Edgbaston for 25 years and never seen a wicket like that, its like we are in Mumbai!" and this was on a wet day

At Headingley, Atherton interviewed Flower, which was wonderful for the sparring and nuances offered by both and Flower said

"We hoped Swann would come into play, as we wanted a dry pitch"

Looking ahead to Australia and the Ashes we have an alignment of the strategic and the tactical


Strategically it looks as if UK pitches are drier than recent years due to the drainage

Tactically, Australia's batting is packed with left handers and Swann against Left handers is a real threat, as not only does he turn the ball away from the elft hander but with the introduction of DRS LBW is in play in a way it never was before technology was introduced. Finally Australia may play two left arm seamers, Starc and Faulkner. NZ played three and it created a lot of rough for Swann

Finally, Australia do not have any spin option of the quality of Swann, Panesar or Tredwell


If we accept there may be an alignment of the strategic and tactical in favour of Swann we have to accept the following

- Anderson is world class
- the weather may well suit new ball bowling
- Australia's top order Clarke apart is suspect

Anderson is favourite and probably should be

There is no hurry here, the Ashes starts mid July but will be watching for prices of over 3-1 on Swann in this market
Having lost by one wicket in the NZ series with Swann at 7-2, and thats an English test series in May against batsmen outclassed by Anderson/Broad, we should go on Swann again here later in the summer......

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-england-bowler



The Swann recommend.

Now THAT is a recommend & a half.

I was in Vegas, doing the RNA thing, so I blame Mere for not having a Triple Wipple Super Max.
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« Reply #50716 on: August 26, 2013, 09:49:37 AM »

Morning Mr T.

I am a tad concerned about how much extra you have been lumping on Nadal in the last week. He is now down to 7/4 and a clear favourite, from being 3rd favourite a week ago.
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tikay
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« Reply #50717 on: August 26, 2013, 09:52:52 AM »

Morning Mr T.

I am a tad concerned about how much extra you have been lumping on Nadal in the last week. He is now down to 7/4 and a clear favourite, from being 3rd favourite a week ago.

Morning hector.

You will never know! In truth, I had a little extra, at the time, but thats it. Good things have a habit of becoming bad things. How some of those bets went awry yesterday I have no idea, but it's par for the course. Or even double bogey.

You found us a great bet there, win or lose.

It starts today, I think.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2013, 09:54:32 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #50718 on: August 26, 2013, 10:08:55 AM »

Are we doing the bet 365 £50 bet jobbie?

Cliffs:

£50 on Chelsea now
£50 on the draw in play.

If united or Chelsea win, you get the draw bet refunded.
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« Reply #50719 on: August 26, 2013, 10:11:05 AM »

Are we doing the bet 365 £50 bet jobbie?

Cliffs:

£50 on Chelsea now
£50 on the draw in play.

If united or Chelsea win, you get the draw bet refunded.

Sigh
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #50720 on: August 26, 2013, 10:14:05 AM »

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

** THE WHOLE ISSUE CENTRES AROUND STAKES BEING NON-RETURNABLE ON FREE BETS **

Imagine you have a £100 free bet.

For the sake of argument imagine the odds are 'true'.....

£100 @ 1/2 will net you £50 66.67% of the time, nothing 33.33% of the time, for an implied value of £33.33.

£100 @ 9/1 will net you £900 10% of the time, nothing 90% of the time, for an implied value of £90.



It's convoluted by the fact that (a) things are generally priced closer to the 'true' price at the shorter end of the market and (b) with longer priced selections it can take you longer to see a return and you feel like you're just p1ssing them up the wall......but in essence you want to look for something at a decent price that is close to the 'true price' - the best (easily accessible and comprehensible) guide is a liquid exchange market. Decent racing is good (especially when you add in BOG) and correct score markets can work well too amongst others.

That's a lot simpler than I expected.

This isn't a free bet per se, though. Or is it?

Yeah it still holds.

Let's say you find a 1/2 shot in play and have a 'risk free' ton at it.... 2/3 of the time you win £50, the other 1/3 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £33.33

If you punt a 9/1 shot in play with a 'risk free' ton.... 1/10 of the time you win £900, the other 9/10 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £90

Same difference Wink

Morning.  Not sure of Fred can get on with B365?
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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« Reply #50721 on: August 26, 2013, 10:14:59 AM »

Are we doing the bet 365 £50 bet jobbie?

Cliffs:

£50 on Chelsea now
£50 on the draw in play.

If united or Chelsea win, you get the draw bet refunded.

Stay behind, after class.

50 lines.

We do not use free bets like this

I'm not sure Fred will get on, incidentally, Restrictions & all that, but a great shout, thank you. EVERYONE should get on this, no question. You just need to decide how.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2013, 10:16:47 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #50722 on: August 26, 2013, 10:15:39 AM »

Are we doing the bet 365 £50 bet jobbie?

Cliffs:

£50 on Chelsea now
£50 on the draw in play.

If united or Chelsea win, you get the draw bet refunded.

Sigh

My spidey senses tell me I might have misspoke...
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« Reply #50723 on: August 26, 2013, 10:18:03 AM »

I think it's best to put both £50 on the same bet, you then double the odds effectively and take a big +ev position.  My personal thoughts were either half one draw for both or Chelsea for both.

In the past I've been abit nitty with them, putting the pre match £50 on over 0.5 goals at tiny odds but it gives you the most chance of a winner IMO, then the free in play £50 on something with big odds as a bit of a gamble.  Pretty sure fred mathematicians would disagree with being nitty on these bets though Smiley
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tikay
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« Reply #50724 on: August 26, 2013, 10:18:51 AM »

Are we doing the bet 365 £50 bet jobbie?

Cliffs:

£50 on Chelsea now
£50 on the draw in play.

If united or Chelsea win, you get the draw bet refunded.

Sigh

My spidey senses tell me I might have misspoke...

You are in a world of hurt there Tal.

Thread divert is the best tactic. Soldado scored again yesterday, I see?
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« Reply #50725 on: August 26, 2013, 10:19:25 AM »

Are we doing the bet 365 £50 bet jobbie?

Cliffs:

£50 on Chelsea now
£50 on the draw in play.

If united or Chelsea win, you get the draw bet refunded.

Sigh

My spidey senses tell me I might have misspoke...

I was trying to find that Abe Simpson youtube clip where he immediately forgets what he's just been told.

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tikay
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« Reply #50726 on: August 26, 2013, 10:20:19 AM »

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

** THE WHOLE ISSUE CENTRES AROUND STAKES BEING NON-RETURNABLE ON FREE BETS **

Imagine you have a £100 free bet.

For the sake of argument imagine the odds are 'true'.....

£100 @ 1/2 will net you £50 66.67% of the time, nothing 33.33% of the time, for an implied value of £33.33.

£100 @ 9/1 will net you £900 10% of the time, nothing 90% of the time, for an implied value of £90.



It's convoluted by the fact that (a) things are generally priced closer to the 'true' price at the shorter end of the market and (b) with longer priced selections it can take you longer to see a return and you feel like you're just p1ssing them up the wall......but in essence you want to look for something at a decent price that is close to the 'true price' - the best (easily accessible and comprehensible) guide is a liquid exchange market. Decent racing is good (especially when you add in BOG) and correct score markets can work well too amongst others.

That's a lot simpler than I expected.

This isn't a free bet per se, though. Or is it?

Yeah it still holds.

Let's say you find a 1/2 shot in play and have a 'risk free' ton at it.... 2/3 of the time you win £50, the other 1/3 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £33.33

If you punt a 9/1 shot in play with a 'risk free' ton.... 1/10 of the time you win £900, the other 9/10 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £90

Same difference Wink

Morning.  Not sure of Fred can get on with B365?

Re-re-re-bumped.
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tikay
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« Reply #50727 on: August 26, 2013, 10:21:03 AM »

Are we doing the bet 365 £50 bet jobbie?

Cliffs:

£50 on Chelsea now
£50 on the draw in play.

If united or Chelsea win, you get the draw bet refunded.

Sigh

My spidey senses tell me I might have misspoke...

I was trying to find that Abe Simpson youtube clip where he immediately forgets what he's just been told.



Tal can't remember that.
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Tal
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« Reply #50728 on: August 26, 2013, 10:21:50 AM »

Are we doing the bet 365 £50 bet jobbie?

Cliffs:

£50 on Chelsea now
£50 on the draw in play.

If united or Chelsea win, you get the draw bet refunded.

Sigh

My spidey senses tell me I might have misspoke...

You are in a world of hurt there Tal.

Thread divert is the best tactic. Soldado scored again yesterday, I see?

Think someone just...yes...hacked into my account. I nearly apprehended the suspect, but he sped away in a white van playing Greensleeves.

We will get him next time.

Soldado has, I think, scored 61 of his last 62 goals from inside the box. Reminds me of Jimmy Greaves. Never see him and then he scores.
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Tal
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« Reply #50729 on: August 26, 2013, 10:24:48 AM »

True story, my Mastermind specialist subject would be the Simpsons.

"Back in the old country...I forget which one..."
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