Tips for Tikay

[kukushkin88]

the golden highway near the rail might make that 3.20 an interesting race for sure. Fav is drawn two, the 2nd fav is drawn right on the rail in 9 but been slow away on first two runs, Doobs horse drawn one off the rail so in a nice possie and might get the rail if the 2nd fav is slow away again. Wouldn't be amazed if those two attempt to get out tho and on the rail and try to lead all the way to take advantage of the draw.

I've backed Arctic Moon today but a word of caution, the Godolphin newcomers, particularly ridden by Barzalona are very rarely quickly in to stride. There seems to be a clear decision to ride them with restraint. The golden highway is a massive advantage and could still be advantageous but I reckon he'll need some room late on and he might well get it in might be quite a weak race. Much prefer Zawiyah of the front 2 in the betting.

Hi Kuku,

Not too long to wait now mate ;o)

I think the 2nd fav deffo looks far more likely and would have bet it but for the slow starts, will be interesting to see how it rides, the fav might even get over from 2 if none of those on the rail go on

How are things with you?

Hi Bobby,

I'm well thanks, had a great summer! I've been quiet on the boards as I don't have much to contribute in the summer other than the horses. This is my time of year though :-).

We have a quite a pool of knowledge for the NFL year, I'm excited both about the sport and the number of +ev betting opportunities we will find.

Back on the horse race I had a bet on Tom Sawyer last week drawn widest of all. He drifted out significantly due to the draw with a huge form chance, I couldn't see much early pace inside. He got across in the first half a furlong never looked back and hosed up. It's interesting hearing the clerk of the course saying he's powerless to do anything about it. I think if we're going to be on one of the wide ones we need good reason to think it will lead.

I hope all is well with you too?

[bobby1]

I'm good thanks mate, looking forward to seeing your NFL thoughts over the next few months.

Think you nailed it with the front running angle when drawn badly, that was a nice coup for you last week.

[BigAdz]

Afternoon Freddies

Not sure what you want to do with this but the source has always been very good.

Been told by a friend that works at Clive Cox yard that Lethal Force wont run at weekend. He has never given me any other information over the years apart from LF last two runs he told me it would win.

I ignored him both times..

The story is they fancy Reckless Abandon....again...not sure that i do...

I know we dont work from stuff like this hence no recomend, but maybe of use if you want. Add in the fact my source maybe wrong, but if you fancy something else, might be worth doing now.

[tikay]

Tighty.

From today's Daily Report.


Free bets to Use, ONE, by 7th September, Ladbrokes


I seem to have 1 x £25 Free Bet with Wm Hill, too. No idea from whence it came.

Loved that photo of the (Mile High) Stadium, jeez, that sits well on it's plot.

[tikay]

Wowzer.

Sixfields it ain't.


 

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes and Hills continue their offer at Lingfield today.  There are a load of short priced horses, so may as well put up a few.  £25 on the scnozzle.

2.20 Travis Bickle 2/1
3.20 Radiator 8/11
4.20 Bert The Alert 6/4
4.50 Al Jamal 7/4
5.20 Al Guwair 11/8

And all the horses in the 3.50 are dreadful, so I plumped for
3.50 Moss Hill 9/2. 

FWIW that 3.20 looks like it should have some e/w value, maybe on the Godolphin horse, though Betfair doesn't back me up at the minute.

These are all Hills prices, Ladbrokes doesn't have prices on them all at the minute.  It might be better to spread money around, though Hills seem happy enough at the minute.  I am putting them up now, as got a few things to do.

I will confirm all these shortly, but we are on Travis Bickle in the 2.20 with Wm Hill Mobile, @ 15/8 Guaranteed Price, Money Back as Free Bet if 2nd.

[Tal]

Top Selling Console in 2013 Betting Odds
Paddy Power has the Playstation 4 at 2/7, this seems generous giving the history of both manufacturers and the negativity surrounding the main competitor, the xbox one, which it is up against in the betting market.
Anyone have any thoughts?

Now

PlayStation 1/4
Xbox 5/2

(Lol overroundaments)

It has just been announced that UK sales dates will be:

PlayStation 29 November
Xbox 22 November


Interested?

[tikay]

Ladbrokes and Hills continue their offer at Lingfield today.  There are a load of short priced horses, so may as well put up a few.  £25 on the scnozzle.

2.20 Travis Bickle 2/1
3.20 Radiator 8/11
4.20 Bert The Alert 6/4
4.50 Al Jamal 7/4
5.20 Al Guwair 11/8

And all the horses in the 3.50 are dreadful, so I plumped for
3.50 Moss Hill 9/2. 

FWIW that 3.20 looks like it should have some e/w value, maybe on the Godolphin horse, though Betfair doesn't back me up at the minute.

These are all Hills prices, Ladbrokes doesn't have prices on them all at the minute.  It might be better to spread money around, though Hills seem happy enough at the minute.  I am putting them up now, as got a few things to do.

I will confirm all these shortly, but we are on Travis Bickle in the 2.20 with Wm Hill Mobile, @ 15/8 Guaranteed Price, Money Back as Free Bet if 2nd.

Travis Bickle finished like a train, but all too late, finished 2nd.

We get a £25 FREE BET with WH.

[tikay]

Tighty.

From today's Daily Report.


Free bets to Use, ONE, by 7th September, Ladbrokes


I seem to have 1 x £25 Free Bet with Wm Hill, too. No idea from whence it came.

Loved that photo of the (Mile High) Stadium, jeez, that sits well on it's plot.

Just had a look - there are NO Free Bets on my Ladbrokes Account, but there IS one on my WH Account. (Two now, including today's 2.20 Lingfield).

[TightEnd]

Tighty.

From today's Daily Report.


Free bets to Use, ONE, by 7th September, Ladbrokes


I seem to have 1 x £25 Free Bet with Wm Hill, too. No idea from whence it came.

Loved that photo of the (Mile High) Stadium, jeez, that sits well on it's plot.

Just had a look - there are NO Free Bets on my Ladbrokes Account, but there IS one on my WH Account. (Two now, including today's 2.20 Lingfield).

ok have altered the spreadsheet, an error somewhere down the line

the Wm Hill expiries are 7 Sept and 11 Sept afaik

[Ant040689]

Rep of Ireland Asian Handicap 0 (draw no bet), at evens against Sweden at home on Friday night.

Ireland have only lost twice in their last 26 qualifying games from the start of the 2010 world cup qualifiers under Trappatoni, with a squad that doesn't scream much of brilliance, but together as a force in qualifying they are a solid unit. And I think from the 2012 embarrassment in the finals we have actually improved our starting line up, namely now including Coleman and he has proved to be a great asset, with McClean and McCarthy of Everton, offering something too on the wing and down the middle.

I think where my confidence lies here in this bet is that I can't see Ireland losing with the defensive nature Trappatoni lines his teams up and I think we are likely to win, because we were well deserved for the draw at their ground in March with this team:
 
   01 Forde
    02 Coleman
    04 O'Shea
    14 Wilson
    15 Clark
    08 McCarthy
    11 McClean (Keogh - 83' )
    21 Green
    09 Long (Sammon - 87' )
    10 Keane (Hoolahan - 76' )
    13 Walters

We were great at hitting the wings and getting a lot of crosses in with Coleman and McClean having great games but it has to be said the chances were minimal to say the least for both teams, it ended 0-0 and if we were a little bit more clever with the best chance we had we could have taken all three points. With the added home advantage, I see the value in the bet because I think Ireland are being under-represented. I think it is wrong Sweden are on par with Ireland at 17/10 ish for the outrights, and it has to be said Ireland should be much bigger favourites here.

The way the league is poised at the moment sees Germany as runaway leaders, and Austria, Ireland and Sweden all on the same points and Ireland in the race for second place, we need to play Austria again too with Sweden needing to play Austria one more time also, so it is a game of chess here. But we play Austria away for our crunch game with them, so the emphasis here is definitely on us going for the win against Sweden, which is exciting as when we counter more, Ireland are always dangerous, after soaking up lots of pressure and placing so many men behind the ball.

Evens seems a decent bet here for a draw no bet, but I can only see the best odds shown for Ireland 0 in the handicaps (same thing). The huge necessity on Ireland needing at least a draw for us to have any chance of qualification here should see this bet being safe enough. We were unlucky not to beat Austria at home with them equalising in the last minute for a 2-2 draw.

Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/draw-no-bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/asian-handicap

[tikay]

Ladbrokes and Hills continue their offer at Lingfield today.  There are a load of short priced horses, so may as well put up a few.  £25 on the scnozzle.

2.20 Travis Bickle 2/1
3.20 Radiator 8/11
4.20 Bert The Alert 6/4
4.50 Al Jamal 7/4
5.20 Al Guwair 11/8

And all the horses in the 3.50 are dreadful, so I plumped for
3.50 Moss Hill 9/2. 

FWIW that 3.20 looks like it should have some e/w value, maybe on the Godolphin horse, though Betfair doesn't back me up at the minute.

These are all Hills prices, Ladbrokes doesn't have prices on them all at the minute.  It might be better to spread money around, though Hills seem happy enough at the minute.  I am putting them up now, as got a few things to do.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

There are all for £25, with either Wm Hill Mobile or Ladbrokes Mobile, & include the £25 Free Bet Concession.

2.20 Lingfield, Travis Pickle, Wm Hill, 15/8 GP

3.20 Lingfield, Radiator, Ladbrokes, 8/11

3.50 Lingfield, Moss Hill, Wm Hill, 9/2 GP

4.20 Lingfield, Bert The Alert, Wm Hill, Evens GP

4.50 Lingfield, Al Jamal, Ladbrokes, 6/4

5.20 Lingfield, Al Guwair, Wm Hill, 11/8 GP

ON



04 Sep 13 / 10:17

Stake

3:50 Lingfield – Moss Hill @ Guaranteed Price (9/2)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000598/F



04 Sep 13 / 10:15

Stake

5:20 Lingfield – Al Guwair @ Guaranteed Price (11/8)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000597/F



04 Sep 13 / 10:12

Stake

4:20 Lingfield – Bert The Alert @ Guaranteed Price (EVS)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000596/F



04 Sep 13 / 10:07

Stake

2:20 Lingfield – Travis Bickle @ 2/1 GP (Price taken @ 15/8)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000595/F

___

0000416 Single (To win) 1 £25.00  16:50 Race winner  Al Jamal  6/4   


0000415 Single (To win) 1 £25.00  15:20 Race winner  Radiator  8/11

[Doobs]

Ladbrokes and Hills continue their offer at Lingfield today.  There are a load of short priced horses, so may as well put up a few.  £25 on the scnozzle.

2.20 Travis Bickle 2/1
3.20 Radiator 8/11
4.20 Bert The Alert 6/4
4.50 Al Jamal 7/4
5.20 Al Guwair 11/8

And all the horses in the 3.50 are dreadful, so I plumped for
3.50 Moss Hill 9/2. 

FWIW that 3.20 looks like it should have some e/w value, maybe on the Godolphin horse, though Betfair doesn't back me up at the minute.

These are all Hills prices, Ladbrokes doesn't have prices on them all at the minute.  It might be better to spread money around, though Hills seem happy enough at the minute.  I am putting them up now, as got a few things to do.

I will confirm all these shortly, but we are on Travis Bickle in the 2.20 with Wm Hill Mobile, @ 15/8 Guaranteed Price, Money Back as Free Bet if 2nd.

Travis Bickle finished like a train, but all too late, finished 2nd.

We get a £25 FREE BET with WH.

On the BigAdz message I have backed Reckless Abandon both times this year, running out of heart.  

Neither Hills (11/2) or Ladbrokes (5/1) are best priced, either which puts me off firing a free bet at it.  I don't understand why they wouldn't run the favourite, the owners are different, I can see a bit of rain forecast which may change the going, but can't see it turning into a bog.

Anybody else?

[hector62]

Mr T.

I seem to remember you have a free bet with WH to be used on the US Open tennis. If you can't find anything else in the short time remaining then Gasquet to beat Ferrer today may be a worthy bet.

[tikay]

FWIW that 3.20 looks like it should have some e/w value, maybe on the Godolphin horse, though Betfair doesn't back me up at the minute.

At the present betfair mid-price of 11.75 win and 2.36 place, it should have an expected return of £2.2 for £2 bet (£1ew at 10-1)?

Though it would be helpful if the thread had someone who was good at analysing horse breeding/form.

That has definitely come in a bit since I looked on Hills and Betair, thread can't back with Sky or Stans, but taken some of that 10/1 each way on Sky personally.  

Edit now 10/1 on Sky gone, only Stan James left.

I can bet on SJ for Fred if you like, what do you want on?

Too late, now 15/2

This can't be a bad bet.  We get best odds guaranteed, it looks a good each way race, Gofolphin 2 year olds tend to be ready first time, I think the maths is probably stil good.

Suggest thread takes £20 each way Arctic Moon, 3.20 Lingfield.  Boylesports or BetVictor 9/1.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

£20 EW @ 9/1, Boylesports, Arctic Moon, 3.20 Lingfield, fifth odds, 1,2,3.

ON

4 Sep 2013

106/105

Lingfield 15:20 - Outright Betting

Arctic Moon

e/w Single

9/1

40.00