Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Rep of Ireland Asian Handicap 0 (draw no bet), at evens against Sweden at home on Friday night.

Ireland have only lost twice in their last 26 qualifying games from the start of the 2010 world cup qualifiers under Trappatoni, with a squad that doesn't scream much of brilliance, but together as a force in qualifying they are a solid unit. And I think from the 2012 embarrassment in the finals we have actually improved our starting line up, namely now including Coleman and he has proved to be a great asset, with McClean and McCarthy of Everton, offering something too on the wing and down the middle.

I think where my confidence lies here in this bet is that I can't see Ireland losing with the defensive nature Trappatoni lines his teams up and I think we are likely to win, because we were well deserved for the draw at their ground in March with this team:
 
   01 Forde
    02 Coleman
    04 O'Shea
    14 Wilson
    15 Clark
    08 McCarthy
    11 McClean (Keogh - 83' )
    21 Green
    09 Long (Sammon - 87' )
    10 Keane (Hoolahan - 76' )
    13 Walters

We were great at hitting the wings and getting a lot of crosses in with Coleman and McClean having great games but it has to be said the chances were minimal to say the least for both teams, it ended 0-0 and if we were a little bit more clever with the best chance we had we could have taken all three points. With the added home advantage, I see the value in the bet because I think Ireland are being under-represented. I think it is wrong Sweden are on par with Ireland at 17/10 ish for the outrights, and it has to be said Ireland should be much bigger favourites here.

The way the league is poised at the moment sees Germany as runaway leaders, and Austria, Ireland and Sweden all on the same points and Ireland in the race for second place, we need to play Austria again too with Sweden needing to play Austria one more time also, so it is a game of chess here. But we play Austria away for our crunch game with them, so the emphasis here is definitely on us going for the win against Sweden, which is exciting as when we counter more, Ireland are always dangerous, after soaking up lots of pressure and placing so many men behind the ball.

Evens seems a decent bet here for a draw no bet, but I can only see the best odds shown for Ireland 0 in the handicaps (same thing). The huge necessity on Ireland needing at least a draw for us to have any chance of qualification here should see this bet being safe enough. We were unlucky not to beat Austria at home with them equalising in the last minute for a 2-2 draw.

Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/draw-no-bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/asian-handicap

Can you guys help me with this one?

Ant put a lot of work into it, thanks Palace Bloke, & I don't want to ignore it. I was busy elsewhere yesterdsay, so can't quite see what was decided - think we were a shade negative?

Helpful Hint to Ant - when sticking these up, try & avoid referring to one Team as "we". I have a sort of default mental block which puts a discount to the value of punting on "homer" bets, if you get my drift. As in, say, if you were to suggest a bet on Palace, I would largely discount it. Not always correctly, of course, but it's like a football managers eyes - they only sees what they want to see, & don't see it as objectively as piure neutrals.

[horseplayer]

Who started the Mancini to Arsenal rumour?

Now 4-1 with buttermeupvihktar from 50-1 yesterday

[TightEnd]

Advance copy of my draft for elsewhere

Recommendation

Baltimore Ravens +8.5 at 10/11 with x/+9.5 4/5 with x

The Denver Broncos are a tough nut to crack at home at altitude in Colorado. One of the fancied teams to go very deep into the play-offs they have a talented roster. On offense Peyton Manning remains one of the league's best quarterbacks and he has a slew of receivers headed by Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, joined this year by Wes Welker from the Patriots. On defense they are slightly weakened by the suspension of all-pro rusher Von Miller, the injury to one of the best cornerbacks in the league Champ Bailey and the departure of Miller's cohort up front Elvis Dumervil to their opponents in this game the Ravens.

The Ravens, despite their success last season, are probably under-rated. They've lost some of last year's roster to free agency but remain well coached, well drafted and a team that always out-performs, especially quarterback Joe Flacco. In running back Ray Rice and a very good offensive line they have the ability to construct long drives, espeically with Von Miller absent, and at least keep the score close. Dumervil and his fellow pass-rushers will also be pressuring Manning

It is quite striking to see the Superbowl winner a near 10 point underdog for their first game after winning the title. This has to be interesting, as this should be a very close game. The battle between the two in the play-offs last season that the Ravens won, going into the game as big under-dogs, went to overtime to attest to this. Are the Ravens really nearly ten points worse than this six months later? I doubt it, and would be surprised to see them lose by more than a touchdown (seven points).

Since the 2005 campaign, only one Super Bowl winning team has lost the following year’s opener. That was the 2012 New York Giants, who also failed to cover the spread—something that has only happened twice in that eight-year span.None of those teams have had to start on the road, but the Ravens proved during their run through the AFC last year that travel is no detriment to their success



(sorry for the brevity, am limiting word count)

Rich,

What do we do with this, now?

It was recommended @ between +8.5 & +9.5.

So, currently +7.5.

When you Posted it, & assuming we would want to get on immediately, I plaed the bet with Wm Hill, £55 @ 10/11. It was, I think, @ +8.5 or +9 at the time (bet slip does not state), then the advice came in "wait a few days". I can't really stick that on Fred once the line has moved to 7.5, it seems to me, it's bending the numbers slightly.

What now?

Please note, I can't place bets between 6pm & 0030 tonight. (Think it kicks off @ 0130am?)

No, its smoke and mirrors to take the bet at 9 from a few days ago

Personally I am sitting it out unless we see +8.5 again

iirc Neil thinks we might. You might be unavailable but I will keep an eye on it


I have one for Sunday night that I have talked to bobby1 about. Wating for the market to go up (its a player bet)

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-a-espana-stage-12/winner

Spoilsports, way way out with Tyler Farrar at 51/1 (palp?). He should be in the mix for todays stage, not as sharp as previous years but always close to top 3, with a 4th & 5th earlier in the race. Not got a account there myself. But small EW...

Typo that has now been changed I think - now reads 5/1?



http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/vuelta-a-espana-stage-12/winner

Incidentally, Betfair offer 9.4, for small money, which IS a ton ool. I helped myself to a small bet @ 9.41, thank you. Fred can have it if agreed BEFORE the price moves south.

[Ant040689]

Rep of Ireland Asian Handicap 0 (draw no bet), at evens against Sweden at home on Friday night.

Ireland have only lost twice in their last 26 qualifying games from the start of the 2010 world cup qualifiers under Trappatoni, with a squad that doesn't scream much of brilliance, but together as a force in qualifying they are a solid unit. And I think from the 2012 embarrassment in the finals we have actually improved our starting line up, namely now including Coleman and he has proved to be a great asset, with McClean and McCarthy of Everton, offering something too on the wing and down the middle.

I think where my confidence lies here in this bet is that I can't see Ireland losing with the defensive nature Trappatoni lines his teams up and I think we are likely to win, because we were well deserved for the draw at their ground in March with this team:
 
   01 Forde
    02 Coleman
    04 O'Shea
    14 Wilson
    15 Clark
    08 McCarthy
    11 McClean (Keogh - 83' )
    21 Green
    09 Long (Sammon - 87' )
    10 Keane (Hoolahan - 76' )
    13 Walters

We were great at hitting the wings and getting a lot of crosses in with Coleman and McClean having great games but it has to be said the chances were minimal to say the least for both teams, it ended 0-0 and if we were a little bit more clever with the best chance we had we could have taken all three points. With the added home advantage, I see the value in the bet because I think Ireland are being under-represented. I think it is wrong Sweden are on par with Ireland at 17/10 ish for the outrights, and it has to be said Ireland should be much bigger favourites here.

The way the league is poised at the moment sees Germany as runaway leaders, and Austria, Ireland and Sweden all on the same points and Ireland in the race for second place, we need to play Austria again too with Sweden needing to play Austria one more time also, so it is a game of chess here. But we play Austria away for our crunch game with them, so the emphasis here is definitely on us going for the win against Sweden, which is exciting as when we counter more, Ireland are always dangerous, after soaking up lots of pressure and placing so many men behind the ball.

Evens seems a decent bet here for a draw no bet, but I can only see the best odds shown for Ireland 0 in the handicaps (same thing). The huge necessity on Ireland needing at least a draw for us to have any chance of qualification here should see this bet being safe enough. We were unlucky not to beat Austria at home with them equalising in the last minute for a 2-2 draw.

Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/draw-no-bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/asian-handicap

Can you guys help me with this one?

Ant put a lot of work into it, thanks Palace Bloke, & I don't want to ignore it. I was busy elsewhere yesterdsay, so can't quite see what was decided - think we were a shade negative?

Helpful Hint to Ant - when sticking these up, try & avoid referring to one Team as "we". I have a sort of default mental block which puts a discount to the value of punting on "homer" bets, if you get my drift. As in, say, if you were to suggest a bet on Palace, I would largely discount it. Not always correctly, of course, but it's like a football managers eyes - they only sees what they want to see, & don't see it as objectively as piure neutrals.

Well its Palace and Ireland I have an affinity to, so may as well continue to use we for those!

I can't see Sweden winning. As Tighty and others pointed out the draw is value as Ireland play so negatively, but I think they need the win to have any chance of qualification. So draw no bet of evens or the double chance Ireland/draw for 1/2. I wouldn't recommend the draw myself only because of the onus on Ireland probably needing all three points here.

[tikay]

Advance copy of my draft for elsewhere

Recommendation

Baltimore Ravens +8.5 at 10/11 with x/+9.5 4/5 with x

The Denver Broncos are a tough nut to crack at home at altitude in Colorado. One of the fancied teams to go very deep into the play-offs they have a talented roster. On offense Peyton Manning remains one of the league's best quarterbacks and he has a slew of receivers headed by Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, joined this year by Wes Welker from the Patriots. On defense they are slightly weakened by the suspension of all-pro rusher Von Miller, the injury to one of the best cornerbacks in the league Champ Bailey and the departure of Miller's cohort up front Elvis Dumervil to their opponents in this game the Ravens.

The Ravens, despite their success last season, are probably under-rated. They've lost some of last year's roster to free agency but remain well coached, well drafted and a team that always out-performs, especially quarterback Joe Flacco. In running back Ray Rice and a very good offensive line they have the ability to construct long drives, espeically with Von Miller absent, and at least keep the score close. Dumervil and his fellow pass-rushers will also be pressuring Manning

It is quite striking to see the Superbowl winner a near 10 point underdog for their first game after winning the title. This has to be interesting, as this should be a very close game. The battle between the two in the play-offs last season that the Ravens won, going into the game as big under-dogs, went to overtime to attest to this. Are the Ravens really nearly ten points worse than this six months later? I doubt it, and would be surprised to see them lose by more than a touchdown (seven points).

Since the 2005 campaign, only one Super Bowl winning team has lost the following year’s opener. That was the 2012 New York Giants, who also failed to cover the spread—something that has only happened twice in that eight-year span.None of those teams have had to start on the road, but the Ravens proved during their run through the AFC last year that travel is no detriment to their success



(sorry for the brevity, am limiting word count)

Rich,

What do we do with this, now?

It was recommended @ between +8.5 & +9.5.

So, currently +7.5.

When you Posted it, & assuming we would want to get on immediately, I plaed the bet with Wm Hill, £55 @ 10/11. It was, I think, @ +8.5 or +9 at the time (bet slip does not state), then the advice came in "wait a few days". I can't really stick that on Fred once the line has moved to 7.5, it seems to me, it's bending the numbers slightly.

What now?

Please note, I can't place bets between 6pm & 0030 tonight. (Think it kicks off @ 0130am?)

No, its smoke and mirrors to take the bet at 9 from a few days ago

Personally I am sitting it out unless we see +8.5 again

iirc Neil thinks we might. You might be unavailable but I will keep an eye on it


I have one for Sunday night that I have talked to bobby1 about. Wating for the market to go up (its a player bet)

Correct. No bet for now then. Except for me.

If it is a 0130 start (?) I can get the bet on before 6pm, or after I finish work if need be, I'll be home by 0030. Assumes the line moves in our favour, of course.

Can we summarise our NFL "season" stuff so far, in an easy to refer to guide? We have some Passing Yards bets amongst others, I believe, but I have no idea when our first games are. Sunday, presumably?

[tikay]

Rep of Ireland Asian Handicap 0 (draw no bet), at evens against Sweden at home on Friday night.

Ireland have only lost twice in their last 26 qualifying games from the start of the 2010 world cup qualifiers under Trappatoni, with a squad that doesn't scream much of brilliance, but together as a force in qualifying they are a solid unit. And I think from the 2012 embarrassment in the finals we have actually improved our starting line up, namely now including Coleman and he has proved to be a great asset, with McClean and McCarthy of Everton, offering something too on the wing and down the middle.

I think where my confidence lies here in this bet is that I can't see Ireland losing with the defensive nature Trappatoni lines his teams up and I think we are likely to win, because we were well deserved for the draw at their ground in March with this team:
 
   01 Forde
    02 Coleman
    04 O'Shea
    14 Wilson
    15 Clark
    08 McCarthy
    11 McClean (Keogh - 83' )
    21 Green
    09 Long (Sammon - 87' )
    10 Keane (Hoolahan - 76' )
    13 Walters

We were great at hitting the wings and getting a lot of crosses in with Coleman and McClean having great games but it has to be said the chances were minimal to say the least for both teams, it ended 0-0 and if we were a little bit more clever with the best chance we had we could have taken all three points. With the added home advantage, I see the value in the bet because I think Ireland are being under-represented. I think it is wrong Sweden are on par with Ireland at 17/10 ish for the outrights, and it has to be said Ireland should be much bigger favourites here.

The way the league is poised at the moment sees Germany as runaway leaders, and Austria, Ireland and Sweden all on the same points and Ireland in the race for second place, we need to play Austria again too with Sweden needing to play Austria one more time also, so it is a game of chess here. But we play Austria away for our crunch game with them, so the emphasis here is definitely on us going for the win against Sweden, which is exciting as when we counter more, Ireland are always dangerous, after soaking up lots of pressure and placing so many men behind the ball.

Evens seems a decent bet here for a draw no bet, but I can only see the best odds shown for Ireland 0 in the handicaps (same thing). The huge necessity on Ireland needing at least a draw for us to have any chance of qualification here should see this bet being safe enough. We were unlucky not to beat Austria at home with them equalising in the last minute for a 2-2 draw.

Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/draw-no-bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/asian-handicap

Can you guys help me with this one?

Ant put a lot of work into it, thanks Palace Bloke, & I don't want to ignore it. I was busy elsewhere yesterdsay, so can't quite see what was decided - think we were a shade negative?

Helpful Hint to Ant - when sticking these up, try & avoid referring to one Team as "we". I have a sort of default mental block which puts a discount to the value of punting on "homer" bets, if you get my drift. As in, say, if you were to suggest a bet on Palace, I would largely discount it. Not always correctly, of course, but it's like a football managers eyes - they only sees what they want to see, & don't see it as objectively as piure neutrals.

Well its Palace and Ireland I have an affinity to, so may as well continue to use we for those!

I can't see Sweden winning. As Tighty and others pointed out the draw is value as Ireland play so negatively, but I think they need the win to have any chance of qualification. So draw no bet of evens or the double chance Ireland/draw for 1/2. I wouldn't recommend the draw myself only because of the onus on Ireland probably needing all three points here.

The Evens (DNB) remains widely available, so we can decide shortly. I really have no idea if that reps value, to be honest.

[the sicilian]

The RP go for San Fran @ 8-1, and Cincy 25-1, Indy 50-1. Rather worryingly they agree with Spangles on 20-1 Andrew Luck.

Indy would be a headline and a half. Worst team in Football (no spurs gags, please) in 2011 and winning the superbowl in 2014. Would also be fun for Baltimore to be followed by Colts again.

The Colts became the worst team in the league mainly because Manning went down, which only enforces what a key position QB is...Luck comes in the next year and in his rookie season drags them to 11-5 behind a horrible O-line..he got hit last year...a lot but he looks very durable..unlike RGIII .Although I don't think the Colts will win the champioship but at 50-1 they look like a decent possibilty for greening out down the line.

I have watched NFL for 30 years and I believe Luck has the potential to be one of the best there ever was.. most expect him to push on from his rookie year and the colts are making improvements in some wanting areas...Cherilus at RT looks a good signing.. to take some pressure off luck to pass they have brought in Bradshaw at RB and if he can remain healthy they might start getting some decent balance.. I know the Colts want Luck to stay in the pocket more instead of running like a scared cat as his protection disintergrates..if the protection holds up he could cut secondarys to ribbons..

I have Luck ew most passing this year and I feel he can break into the top 4... and have him at 21-1 which i feel is the sort of value the thread aspires to..

Also and this is a recommend... the line of 2.0 over 8.5 season wins looks a little off..they have a soft division apart from the Texans who they split with last year and a soft schedule... i identified at least 8 paper comfortable wins on their schedule and put them about 10-6... i mentioned this to tighty and he agreed.. I actually pressed the max button for this on 365 expecting something silly like 12 grand and was a little spooked it was the £300 i was going to wager anyway..

Saying that Luck will do his ACL week 1 and ill be screwed...lol


SEASON SWEAT RECOMMEND COLTS OVER 8.5 SEASON WINS @2.0 365 OR OTHER VARIOUS..AT LEAST A £100

[DungBeetle]

Yep - NFL summary would be good if someone has the time.

[TightEnd]

Games weekly are

Thursday Night-Sky Sports 1

Sunday at 6pm and 9.30pm Sky Sports

Sunday 1.30am Ch 4

Monday 1.30am ESPN

16 games a week, 13 of the 16 on Sunday evening our time

Bets

We have

Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC £50 @16/1

Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC North £100 @23/10

Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West £25 free bet at 7/1

Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East £40 at 9/2 (Brady-gate)

Tennesse Titans Season Points over 374.5 £75 at 17/10


Players

Most Regular Season Passing Yards   Matthew Stafford 6/1   100 Detroit Lions
Most Regular Season Passing Yards   Drew Brees   3/1   160 New Orleans Saints
Most Regular Season Passing Yards   Matt Ryan           10/1   66 Atlanta Falcons



Personally I am quite happy to have left the NFC pretty much alone. Its far far more competitive than the AFC with a majority of teams that could hit the play offs

FWIW, not a lot, in my season preview elsewhere I picked the Redskins at 20-1 to win the NFC as a value alternative to the 49ers and the Seahawks who are understandably favourites

I am going to have to limit my reporting on the NFL. Thread is soaking up so much time, and the NFL season is where my geekery takes off.


This post is not a good start

[Ant040689]

Tis with Betway so you may not be getting on Tikay but it is for the rest of you who are. Seems they are way ool with offering 8/5 on Tottenham for the Tournament match betting against Arsenal for the season. Next best price is evens with Bet365.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/arsenal-v-tottenham/tournament-match-betting

[tikay]

That NFL Summary is perfect Rich, thanks, by using "Search" & inserting, say, "Passing Yards" it will find that Post for ongoing reference.

One last favour for clots like me - can you add the name of the Team those "Passing Yards" players pay for, please? Then we know what games to follow.

Thank you.

[Tal]

Tis with Betway so you may not be getting on Tikay but it is for the rest of you who are. Seems they are way ool with offering 8/5 on Tottenham for the Tournament match betting against Arsenal for the season. Next best price is evens with Bet365.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/arsenal-v-tottenham/tournament-match-betting

Fred is on Wenger Mancini's men to finish in the top three, so this would be compromising the bet.

[Ant040689]

Tis with Betway so you may not be getting on Tikay but it is for the rest of you who are. Seems they are way ool with offering 8/5 on Tottenham for the Tournament match betting against Arsenal for the season. Next best price is evens with Bet365.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/arsenal-v-tottenham/tournament-match-betting

Fred is on Wenger Mancini's men to finish in the top three, so this would be compromising the bet.

Value is value?

[tikay]

The RP go for San Fran @ 8-1, and Cincy 25-1, Indy 50-1. Rather worryingly they agree with Spangles on 20-1 Andrew Luck.

Indy would be a headline and a half. Worst team in Football (no spurs gags, please) in 2011 and winning the superbowl in 2014. Would also be fun for Baltimore to be followed by Colts again.

The Colts became the worst team in the league mainly because Manning went down, which only enforces what a key position QB is...Luck comes in the next year and in his rookie season drags them to 11-5 behind a horrible O-line..he got hit last year...a lot but he looks very durable..unlike RGIII .Although I don't think the Colts will win the champioship but at 50-1 they look like a decent possibilty for greening out down the line.

I have watched NFL for 30 years and I believe Luck has the potential to be one of the best there ever was.. most expect him to push on from his rookie year and the colts are making improvements in some wanting areas...Cherilus at RT looks a good signing.. to take some pressure off luck to pass they have brought in Bradshaw at RB and if he can remain healthy they might start getting some decent balance.. I know the Colts want Luck to stay in the pocket more instead of running like a scared cat as his protection disintergrates..if the protection holds up he could cut secondarys to ribbons..

I have Luck ew most passing this year and I feel he can break into the top 4... and have him at 21-1 which i feel is the sort of value the thread aspires to..

Also and this is a recommend... the line of 2.0 over 8.5 season wins looks a little off..they have a soft division apart from the Texans who they split with last year and a soft schedule... i identified at least 8 paper comfortable wins on their schedule and put them about 10-6... i mentioned this to tighty and he agreed.. I actually pressed the max button for this on 365 expecting something silly like 12 grand and was a little spooked it was the £300 i was going to wager anyway..

Saying that Luck will do his ACL week 1 and ill be screwed...lol


SEASON SWEAT RECOMMEND COLTS OVER 8.5 SEASON WINS @2.0 365 OR OTHER VARIOUS..AT LEAST A £100

Thanks Dean.

There seems to be two suggestions there, I'll deal with "Luck" seperately.

Any views from anyone on the Colts suggestion, Over 8.5 Wins @ Evens?

I'll try & find the Oddschecker page, so we can see what's what. I doubt 365 will allow me £100, but others may offer it, too.


EDIT - Oddschecker link added. I can get 20/21 even if 365 say no.

Are we going with this?


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/indianapolis-colts/regular-season-wins