Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

haddock appears to have missed the rain overnight......


not good anyway good luck all

Leopardstown got 7mm, so currently good there, with possibility of heavy showers later.  Hence the Trading Leather bet has gone a little bad.  The consolation is that it is probably worse for The Fugue.

Who is in charge of the laying strategy at Haydock?  The original intention was to trade some, given Tony is busy today, probably best to have it up here soon and with clear instructions.

[BigAdz]

Morning All

Lovely day for it.

Looks like the good advice I have picked up over the years, and ignored this week, about trusting weathermen and stable sources, has set me up nicely in the Sprint Cup.

Good ground for the bogtrotters, Lethal Force running and his stablechum the non runner....and the horse my ante post money was on pre the saga now almost twice the price!

Could be a long day! GL all

[Chompy]

OK, we have the following bets on Gordon Lordy this afternoon.

£50 @ 7-1 Ladbrokes
£25 @ 13-2 Hills
£100 @ 13-2 Hills
£182 @ 7-1 Boyles

That's a total bet of £357.

Hills are definitely (apparently) slapping a 15p Rule 4 on, so we effectively have £125 @ 5.53-1 with them, which would return a £691 profit.

Boyles say there is no R4, so we have to take them at their word. £182 @ 7-1 returns a profit of £1,274.

Ladbrokes will either b no R4, 15p or 20p. But it's a secret for now. Until they decide after the race. Wankers.

£50 will either return a profit of £350, £298 or £280.

So a win will either return £2,315, £2,267 or £2,249. Or a completely different figure if Boyel do decide to slap a R4 on. In other words there's a lot of uncertainty.

Either way we're beating the price. I suggest laying £300 at 5.7 on the machine. This will take £1,440 out of the profit. So effectively we'll be left with a £58 bet on Gordey, minus a bit of commission.

To confirm, we need to LAY Gordon Lordy @ 5.7 for £300 for a liability of £1,410.

[Doobs]

2.40 Haydock  £25 evens Montridge. Hills Mobile.

I would have put up Royal Empire in the 14.20 at Kempton but Betfred were 7/2 beat Betfair have best odds guarantee, so just did it there.

[Chompy]

To easy for England's too-goal hero, but to yellow cards knock him out of Twosday's Ukraine tie

Click to see full-size image.

"John Kettley is a weather man, John Kettley is a racing fan."

Click to see full-size image.

Birkland's a non-believer and gets the hosepipes out anyway

Click to see full-size image.

"Nice to see you, to see you nice!" Well into his eighties but still a regular on our TV screens and it's time to get those dancing shoes out again

Click to see full-size image.

Natalie Gumball is now as short as 7/2 for Can't Dance, Won't Dance, but Gordon Lord Kimber got us on at 8-1, oi oi!

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[a.sparrow]

Two quickies

2.40 Haydock  £25 evens Montridge
3.45 Haydock £25 3/1 Lethal Force.  I think we should do this, the ground isn't as soft as hoped, it provides a bit of hedging for our good bets, and the maths is correct.

Both Hills mobile.

I would have put up Royal Empire in the 14.20 at Kempton but Betfred were 7/2 beat Betfair have best odds guarantee, so just did it there.

From Chompy's Report above Tikay bet on GLB on hills, I think the money back if second offer only counts on the first bet in each race. I don't know if he did it on his mobile or desktop though, and if he did it on his desktop then he could place it on his mobile and it would count as the first bet in this race?  Alternatively he could do it on betfred if the price is the same? Just a thought.

[Doobs]

Two quickies

2.40 Haydock  £25 evens Montridge
3.45 Haydock £25 3/1 Lethal Force.  I think we should do this, the ground isn't as soft as hoped, it provides a bit of hedging for our good bets, and the maths is correct.

Both Hills mobile.

I would have put up Royal Empire in the 14.20 at Kempton but Betfred were 7/2 beat Betfair have best odds guarantee, so just did it there.

From Chompy's Report above Tikay bet on GLB on hills, I think the money back if second offer only counts on the first bet in each race. I don't know if he did it on his mobile or desktop though, and if he did it on his desktop then he could place it on his mobile and it would count as the first bet in this race?  Alternatively he could do it on betfred if the price is the same? Just a thought.

You are right I think.  Not sure on the T and Cs, but maths isn't nearly as compelling if we can't get the free bet.  Though best odds guaranteed is worth something.  I have amended the post.

[tikay]

The Lord Gordon Byron Thngie

The timing - for me - was nut bad, work etc, but I got a good lump on.

I began by going EW, as per the original recommend, but later, when the bet went Win Only for Trading Purposes, I went "WIN".

So, for better or worse, this is what we have, based on the tempest & storms expected, now downgraded to a light shower......

Gordon Lord Byron, Haydock Spring Cup, Saturday.



£25 EW @ 7/1, (fifth, 1,2,3) Ladbrokes

£50 EW @ 13/2 (fifth, 1,2,3) GUARANTEED PRICE Wm Hill,

£25 WIN FREE BET @ 13/2, Wm Hill

£182 WIN (asked for £300, they Restricted me to £182) @ 7/1, Boylesports.

So in total, we have....

£207 WIN @ 7/1

£75 WIN @ 13/2. (Includes a £25 Free Bet)

£25 PLACE @ 7/1

£50 PLACE @ 13/2, Guaranteed Odds.


As of now (1am Friday), GLB is around 6/1 generally with the bookies. BetFair currently go 7 the win, (so we are good there) & 7.2 Lay.
  
Note we have nothing on Garswood.

BUMPED for reference.

[tikay]

OK, we have the following bets on Gordon Lordy this afternoon.

£50 @ 7-1 Ladbrokes
£25 @ 13-2 Hills
£100 @ 13-2 Hills
£182 @ 7-1 Boyles

That's a total bet of £357.

Hills are definitely (apparently) slapping a 15p Rule 4 on, so we effectively have £125 @ 5.53-1 with them, which would return a £691 profit.

Boyles say there is no R4, so we have to take them at their word. £182 @ 7-1 returns a profit of £1,274.

Ladbrokes will either b no R4, 15p or 20p. But it's a secret for now. Until they decide after the race. Wankers.

£50 will either return a profit of £350, £298 or £280.

So a win will either return £2,315, £2,267 or £2,249. Or a completely different figure if Boyel do decide to slap a R4 on. In other words there's a lot of uncertainty.

Either way we're beating the price. I suggest laying £300 at 5.7 on the machine. This will take £1,440 out of the profit. So effectively we'll be left with a £58 bet on Gordey, minus a bit of commission.

To confirm, we need to LAY Gordon Lordy @ 5.7 for £300 for a liability of £1,410.

Morning, Baldrick, lovely sunny morning up here, with a drying wind.

Do I make the lay right now, or do we think the price will shorten nearer the time?

Let me know please. Off to have a shower now, and meet my bank manager to explain and justify why I need to deposit my life savings into Betfair. (Current Betty balance approx £700).

Be right back.

[Tonji]

Update on the Vuelta. Txurruka is up and running pedalling. He picked up 6 points with a 2nd on the category 1 climb yesterday. Plenty of points up for grabs over the weekend.

[Tonji]

After passing up my first tip which amazingly won, (as below) I am going for an obscure market.

Janet Yelland to be next US federal reserve Chair.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/the-next-chairperson-of-the-us-federal-reserve

JY is currently president of the San Fran Fed, and vice-chair of the federal reserve, brilliant and 12/5 with PP. Larry Summers (2/5) is mates with all of Obamas economics advisors so is going to get nominated but there then needs to be a senate vote. The republicans will vote against as he has been proposed by BO, a third of the remaining democrats have already said they want JY as their choice. So there will be a lot of arm twisting and general political skulduggery, so LS may get bumped and JY can get approved as a compromise candidate. The NFP's released today were not great and the revisions even less so, so JY perceived dovishness should make her even more popular ... So

£20 on Janet Yelland for US federal reserve chair with PP at 12/5

http://www.pitpass.com/48789-Roy-the-Boys-betting-guide-to-China

I know the Fred does not run well with F1 betting but above is poker's "Roy the Boy" advising betting on Alonso at 4/1 for China this weekend.

Loads of 4/1 still available http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/winner

Recommend £30 Alonso win in china with WH.

bumped in case it gets lost. Pretty sure Neeko knows his economics.

[tikay]

After passing up my first tip which amazingly won, (as below) I am going for an obscure market.

Janet Yelland to be next US federal reserve Chair.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/the-next-chairperson-of-the-us-federal-reserve

JY is currently president of the San Fran Fed, and vice-chair of the federal reserve, brilliant and 12/5 with PP. Larry Summers (2/5) is mates with all of Obamas economics advisors so is going to get nominated but there then needs to be a senate vote. The republicans will vote against as he has been proposed by BO, a third of the remaining democrats have already said they want JY as their choice. So there will be a lot of arm twisting and general political skulduggery, so LS may get bumped and JY can get approved as a compromise candidate. The NFP's released today were not great and the revisions even less so, so JY perceived dovishness should make her even more popular ... So

£20 on Janet Yelland for US federal reserve chair with PP at 12/5

http://www.pitpass.com/48789-Roy-the-Boys-betting-guide-to-China

I know the Fred does not run well with F1 betting but above is poker's "Roy the Boy" advising betting on Alonso at 4/1 for China this weekend.

Loads of 4/1 still available http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/winner

Recommend £30 Alonso win in china with WH.

Thanks neeko, looks a terrific bet. Have just finished reading a book about the Fed, Freddy Mac & Fannie May.

Saw this yesterday, too.....


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/why-janet-yellen-not-larry-summers-should-lead-the-federal-reserve/articleshow/22392064.cms



Bad timing this, am stuck up in Newcastle with a very bad internet connection. Still, the waether is lovely, so thats good.

I got Restricted by Paddy Power, but at least we got the bet on, & don't have to do any rain dances, or visit the Bank Manager to finance the bet. It would be awful to have sunk that low.

We have £8.84 @ 12/5, Paddy Power, Janet Yellen

ON



US Federal Reserve Next US Federal Reserve Chair
29-09-2013 12:00
Chairman of the US Federal Reserve
Janet Yellen @ 12/5


Your Bets





Win
Single: Janet Yellen @ 12/5
1 line at £8.84 per line
Total stake for this bet: £8.84
 Potential returns: £30.06
No: O/23146337/0000352
 

[edgascoigne]

OK, we have the following bets on Gordon Lordy this afternoon.

£182 @ 7-1 Boyles

Who managed to get this bet with Boyles?!

[JaffaCake]

Best picture montage ever, all aboard the Gumball rally. Hope we can watch Strictly at this soiree you've organised Tikay, oioiiii

[tikay]

OK, we have the following bets on Gordon Lordy this afternoon.

£182 @ 7-1 Boyles

Who managed to get this bet with Boyles?!

Me.

Requested £300, got knocked back to £182. This was several days ago, before the promised deluge.