Tips for Tikay

[Laxie]

The All Ireland hurling between Clare and Cork ended in a draw. Cracking game.
Clare were in front all the way, Cork edged in front right at the end and Clare equalized with virtually the last touch.

GAA get what they want again, same as last year, blatant cheating from the Ref so they get a replay and more coin.

Where were u prematch?! Let's remember to back the draw next year, all for fixing it if we're on!

What you on about?

I'm on about u saying this game was drawn because the GAA and the ref contrived it....if that was the case we coulda/shoulda bet the draw no?

Well that's last two years the All Ireland has had one point in it with seconds to go and the Ref has played a major part in them ending in draws.
For what it's worth it's the least Clare deserved but like last year they have probably had their chance.

For the sake of this thread...it's never a bad thing to bet on the draw for any major Irish match.  Draws are a big money maker for the GAA...and it happens regularly.

[tikay]

Just bet the Giants +3.5 at evens with Betfair fixed-odds btw.

 Would recommend that. Pinny make it odds against Dallas -3.5.

 (actually looks like I've caused a change to 20/21 but that is still a very nice bet).

Hi Neil

Just got home after a most stressful weekend at Aspers Newcaste and a 300 mile drive. Remind me to discuss Aspers with you tomorrow.

Looks like we missed you killing the NFL tonight, congrats.

Having missed all those winners, am a bit worried Fred will have missed the wedding but arrived in time fir the funeral.

Missed the Evens and 20/21, so reduced the planned bet size to £66 @ 10/11 with Wm Hill, NY Giants +3.5 over the Cowboys.

Bet owned by BETTING EMPORIUM.

Thanks!

[tikay]

I am also doing a final table

I can't find it anywhere

Market for David Wilson NYG Rushing Yards v Dallas tonight please (He is going to run for a lot of yards)

Told it was on Ladbrokes, searched and searched but no, I couldn't see it...


If anyone finds it link please!

Thanks Rich.

Bit of a problem here, because the line is 75.5, but you never defined "a lot of yards".

Have taken a chance and invested £44 @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes, D. Wilson, over 75.5 Rushing Yards, Giants @ Cowboys.

ON

[tikay]

Before I forget, big thanks to Tighty for managing the Spready, and getting the bets on for Fred all weekend. Very difficult weekend for him, in so many ways, most especially carrying me.

Thanks also to Marky and Bobby or helping me get bets on.

Gonna relax now and watch the Giants @ Cowboys, hoping to actually be able to sweat a Fred bet for the first time since Thursday. Even missed the LGB race!

[tikay]

Got an F1 bet I like for Sunday afternoon.

Vettel is on pole and a big fav for the Italian Grand Prix.

This therefore gives some big value to the place part of bets on some of his opponents, lots of bookies only go first 2 each way for example.

In second we have Webber who is ofski next year and just doesn't seem all that bovved, in third there's a Sauber that can't compete, and in 4th there's Massa who will be told to help Mambo Number five, the man currently lying in second place in the driver champs.

Step forward Mr Fernando Alonso available@11-2 ew first 3 1/5 odds with BetVictor&Skybet.

Obviously the value of this bet is in the place part.

At 1/5 of the odds first 3 we get 2.1/11/10 for him to make the podium.

The biggest price you'll get with the bookies for this is 4/6, and it's unders and 1.64 to lay on Betfair.

The win part of the bet is fairly neutral, it's just over 6-1 to lay on the machine.

Like this bet a great deal, especially when we add on the home advantage for Ferrari.

Recommend £50 each way Fernando Alonso@11-2 with BetVictor.

Would happily take 5-1 ew with first 3 1/5 odds too.

This was a great Recommend Dom, shame we missed the price. It was also good that you suggested swerving it once we missed the price, too.

[tikay]

Nadal beats Gasquet in the semi final   6 - 4     7 - 6     6 - 2

Thanks hector - nearly there!

[tikay]

BigAdz mentioned Jordan Spieth earlier in the week and how he thought he should be backed at 33/1 in this week's BMW Championship.

The early markets are up and he is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.  They are both quarter first 5 which I think is generous.  It also beats a very early Betfair market, albeit one with 40k backed so far.   Even if he does drift out a little there, then I can't see 8/1 top 5 looking bad value by start day.

For comparison he was 45/1 before the last tournament and 60/1 the one before, and he was 100/1+ for the Open not that long ago.  But he seems to have been underestimated in those tournaments, and has hit a 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th in the last 8 tournaments he has played.  He has also been selected for the US team in the President's Cup this week, so is obviously highly rated by his peers.  All this is known info, but we could still be ahead of the market here.

I know we have had a bad time with golf bets, but still think we should put at least £20 each way on.  If you want to put it down to the big fella, it is ok by me.

Edit. Edited number of places to 5, typo in the post

Morning Doobs.

Trying to get caught up here from 3 days absence, & a woefully unreliable wifi in Newcastle.

I have, inevitably, missed the 33/1, 28/1 is the best available to me now.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/bmw-championship/winner

Do the maths still stand up @ 28/1?

Happy to get on if so.

"....I know we have had a bad time with golf bets....."

I'm quite relaxed about that - golf betting is high variance, even the way we do it is relatively so, so that should not deter us.

We certainly ought to have some interest in this weeks (short field) BMW Championship if we can find some value hidden away somewhere.

[Doobs]

BigAdz mentioned Jordan Spieth earlier in the week and how he thought he should be backed at 33/1 in this week's BMW Championship.

The early markets are up and he is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.  They are both quarter first 5 which I think is generous.  It also beats a very early Betfair market, albeit one with 40k backed so far.   Even if he does drift out a little there, then I can't see 8/1 top 5 looking bad value by start day.

For comparison he was 45/1 before the last tournament and 60/1 the one before, and he was 100/1+ for the Open not that long ago.  But he seems to have been underestimated in those tournaments, and has hit a 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th in the last 8 tournaments he has played.  He has also been selected for the US team in the President's Cup this week, so is obviously highly rated by his peers.  All this is known info, but we could still be ahead of the market here.

I know we have had a bad time with golf bets, but still think we should put at least £20 each way on.  If you want to put it down to the big fella, it is ok by me.

Edit. Edited number of places to 5, typo in the post

Morning Doobs.

Trying to get caught up here from 3 days absence, & a woefully unreliable wifi in Newcastle.

I have, inevitably, missed the 33/1, 28/1 is the best available to me now.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/bmw-championship/winner

Do the maths still stand up @ 28/1?

Happy to get on if so.

"....I know we have had a bad time with golf bets....."

I'm quite relaxed about that - golf betting is high variance, even the way we do it is relatively so, so that should not deter us.

We certainly ought to have some interest in this weeks (short field) BMW Championship.

When BigAdz mentioned him earlier in the week, he said we should look to back him at 33/1, and that felt about right.  So when the maths backed him up, I thought we should definitely back him.  Now we have a shorter price and I think the maths will make it a loser.

When I looked last night there were still a few to put prices up, and maybe somebody will put him back up to 33/1.  If that doesn't happen I think we have to give it a miss and wait for the inevitable.

I will have a look later in the week to see if there is any maths value, but with 5 places instead of 6 or 7 it becomes a lot less compelling.  Woods is still very short though, and think we have at least one Hills freebie left (I think there may be two as I got another free bet on the Lambert free bet.

As an aside I final tabled your Primo last night without troubling the top 5.  Richard "I can see all the cards" Orford gave me a bit of tuition on a couple of hands, so maybe I'll put them up on PHA.  I thought they were both pretty marginal.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £1138.98

Outstanding Bets £3015.90

Free Bets to Use ONE, William Hill by 12th Sept

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29


A profit of £30 yesterday while the thread was operating on reduced power! The Law Frim Ben Jarvus Green Ellis rushed for less than 62.5 yards for the Bengals and won £50 for us at 5/6. Unfortunately Wakefield narrowly beat Castleford for a £20 loss

The NFL season began and generally it was a decent start for our many positions

The Miami Dolphins won in Cleveland

The Kansas City Chiefs pulverised the Jags

The Titans went to Pittsburgh and won, albeit only scoring 16 points. If they are competitive this season thoguh, the points will follow

Unfortunately the bengals blew a lead in Chicago, but the softener was all four teams in their division lost and of the four, the Bengals look clearly the best team to me. It's definitely the case that top to bottom the AFC is weaker than the NFC too

Today Nadal plays Djokovic in the US Open Tennis. £20 at 3-1 on Nadal would fill the bath with water that bit more...

In baseball the Rays have been slowly recovering form, they won last night and the Red Sox lost to the Yankees. The Rays remain two games clear of the Indians and the Orioles for the second wild card place....



 

[tikay]

BigAdz mentioned Jordan Spieth earlier in the week and how he thought he should be backed at 33/1 in this week's BMW Championship.

The early markets are up and he is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.  They are both quarter first 5 which I think is generous.  It also beats a very early Betfair market, albeit one with 40k backed so far.   Even if he does drift out a little there, then I can't see 8/1 top 5 looking bad value by start day.

For comparison he was 45/1 before the last tournament and 60/1 the one before, and he was 100/1+ for the Open not that long ago.  But he seems to have been underestimated in those tournaments, and has hit a 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th in the last 8 tournaments he has played.  He has also been selected for the US team in the President's Cup this week, so is obviously highly rated by his peers.  All this is known info, but we could still be ahead of the market here.

I know we have had a bad time with golf bets, but still think we should put at least £20 each way on.  If you want to put it down to the big fella, it is ok by me.

Edit. Edited number of places to 5, typo in the post

Morning Doobs.

Trying to get caught up here from 3 days absence, & a woefully unreliable wifi in Newcastle.

I have, inevitably, missed the 33/1, 28/1 is the best available to me now.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/bmw-championship/winner

Do the maths still stand up @ 28/1?

Happy to get on if so.

"....I know we have had a bad time with golf bets....."

I'm quite relaxed about that - golf betting is high variance, even the way we do it is relatively so, so that should not deter us.

We certainly ought to have some interest in this weeks (short field) BMW Championship.

When BigAdz mentioned him earlier in the week, he said we should look to back him at 33/1, and that felt about right.  So when the maths backed him up, I thought we should definitely back him.  Now we have a shorter price and I think the maths will make it a loser.

When I looked last night there were still a few to put prices up, and maybe somebody will put him back up to 33/1.  If that doesn't happen I think we have to give it a miss and wait for the inevitable.

I will have a look later in the week to see if there is any maths value, but with 5 places instead of 6 or 7 it becomes a lot less compelling.  Woods is still very short though, and think we have at least one Hills freebie left (I think there may be two as I got another free bet on the Lambert free bet.

As an aside I final tabled your Primo last night without troubling the top 5.  Richard "I can see all the cards" Orford gave me a bit of tuition on a couple of hands, so maybe I'll put them up on PHA.  I thought they were both pretty marginal.

Thought as much, shame really, but the last few days have rather interrupted the flow of things.

As you note, 4 or 5 Firms have yet to put up prices, so I'll keep an eye on it, & if I see some 33/1, I'll get on, for £20 EW.

Wm Hill Free Bets - we currently have ONE remaining.

I did not back Lambert FGS, in fact I never placed ANY bets on the Football as I was unavailable, & a bit over-run with stuff. Think it turned out to be a neutral swerve, overall.

Well done on Final Tabling the PRIMO, but failing to make Top 5...... Quite a Final Table, that, Hurst05 & Flash Flush both feature in Leaderboard Rankings, & Nutter5932 - a daily & avid reader of this thread, who was with Tighty & I in Newcastle all weekend, and was in on the LGB coup (morning Ben.....) is probably the biggest SNG Winner on the site all-time. Hjatland, a smashing chap, is reputedly the best Sky Poker player bar none in the Shetland Isles. I kid you not.

I would not place TOO much emphasis on "face up analysis" by Mr Rich Orford, he's a Presenter, not an Expert like me. I've even coached Chompy.     

[TightEnd]

Run BenJarvus run. Run enough for the Bengals bets but not enough for the rushing bets

Click to see full-size image.

Not too often you get a 28-2 score in the NFL. Here's Alex Smith of the Chiefs. Who 49ers fans rooted for pre-Kaep.



Janet has the right idea.

Click to see full-size image.

Still in the hunt

Click to see full-size image.

Time he put a bet up (the one on the left)



Just under 3 months to go to the third round FA Cup draw. Might run short of ideas for daily report updates of that in the intervening period

[tikay]

That photo in Tighty's photo-montage is unbelievably spooky - that is "Nutter5932" (Ben Nuttall), who, quite by chance, I mentioned to Doobs in my previous Post. What were the chances of that?

He beat Doobs in last night's PRIMO Final, in case Doobs needs reminding.....

The photo was taken a few years back, when Ben came to Vegas with next door.

[aaron1867]

Been having a look through the internationals for tomorrow the last few days, but can't get my head around the Luxemborg v N Ireland match.

The price is generally EVS, but I would have assumed that Northern Ireland should have had enough to see them off even away from home, surprising when I saw it was that price. It seems with a little research the rankings show them to be closer than I thought and they drew 1-1 earlier in the campaign in NI. They still have a few decent enough players though.

Even though not a recc for Fred or anything near, would like to hear views on this from others if you have any?

[tikay]

BigAdz mentioned Jordan Spieth earlier in the week and how he thought he should be backed at 33/1 in this week's BMW Championship.

The early markets are up and he is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.  They are both quarter first 5 which I think is generous.  It also beats a very early Betfair market, albeit one with 40k backed so far.   Even if he does drift out a little there, then I can't see 8/1 top 5 looking bad value by start day.

For comparison he was 45/1 before the last tournament and 60/1 the one before, and he was 100/1+ for the Open not that long ago.  But he seems to have been underestimated in those tournaments, and has hit a 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th in the last 8 tournaments he has played.  He has also been selected for the US team in the President's Cup this week, so is obviously highly rated by his peers.  All this is known info, but we could still be ahead of the market here.

I know we have had a bad time with golf bets, but still think we should put at least £20 each way on.  If you want to put it down to the big fella, it is ok by me.

Edit. Edited number of places to 5, typo in the post

Morning Doobs.

Trying to get caught up here from 3 days absence, & a woefully unreliable wifi in Newcastle.

I have, inevitably, missed the 33/1, 28/1 is the best available to me now.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/bmw-championship/winner

Do the maths still stand up @ 28/1?

Happy to get on if so.

"....I know we have had a bad time with golf bets....."

I'm quite relaxed about that - golf betting is high variance, even the way we do it is relatively so, so that should not deter us.

We certainly ought to have some interest in this weeks (short field) BMW Championship.

When BigAdz mentioned him earlier in the week, he said we should look to back him at 33/1, and that felt about right.  So when the maths backed him up, I thought we should definitely back him.  Now we have a shorter price and I think the maths will make it a loser.

When I looked last night there were still a few to put prices up, and maybe somebody will put him back up to 33/1.  If that doesn't happen I think we have to give it a miss and wait for the inevitable.

I will have a look later in the week to see if there is any maths value, but with 5 places instead of 6 or 7 it becomes a lot less compelling.  Woods is still very short though, and think we have at least one Hills freebie left (I think there may be two as I got another free bet on the Lambert free bet.

As an aside I final tabled your Primo last night without troubling the top 5.  Richard "I can see all the cards" Orford gave me a bit of tuition on a couple of hands, so maybe I'll put them up on PHA.  I thought they were both pretty marginal.

Boylesports have now put prices up, they go 30/1 our man.

I'll wait & see what BetFred, Sporting Bet & Wm Hill come up with, & will continue to monitor it.

[BigAdz]

Been having a look through the internationals for tomorrow the last few days, but can't get my head around the Luxemborg v N Ireland match.

The price is generally EVS, but I would have assumed that Northern Ireland should have had enough to see them off even away from home, surprising when I saw it was that price. It seems with a little research the rankings show them to be closer than I thought and they drew 1-1 earlier in the campaign in NI. They still have a few decent enough players though.

Even though not a recc for Fred or anything near, would like to hear views on this from others if you have any?

I would say you pretty much answered your own question. Close in rankings, 1-1 in return fixture, probable slightly stronger team away. Looks about right.