Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

I just would never trust Northern Ireland enough to score in a given international game to justify backing them at a low price.

[the sicilian]

The RP go for San Fran @ 8-1, and Cincy 25-1, Indy 50-1. Rather worryingly they agree with Spangles on 20-1 Andrew Luck.

Indy would be a headline and a half. Worst team in Football (no spurs gags, please) in 2011 and winning the superbowl in 2014. Would also be fun for Baltimore to be followed by Colts again.

The Colts became the worst team in the league mainly because Manning went down, which only enforces what a key position QB is...Luck comes in the next year and in his rookie season drags them to 11-5 behind a horrible O-line..he got hit last year...a lot but he looks very durable..unlike RGIII .Although I don't think the Colts will win the champioship but at 50-1 they look like a decent possibilty for greening out down the line.

I have watched NFL for 30 years and I believe Luck has the potential to be one of the best there ever was.. most expect him to push on from his rookie year and the colts are making improvements in some wanting areas...Cherilus at RT looks a good signing.. to take some pressure off luck to pass they have brought in Bradshaw at RB and if he can remain healthy they might start getting some decent balance.. I know the Colts want Luck to stay in the pocket more instead of running like a scared cat as his protection disintergrates..if the protection holds up he could cut secondarys to ribbons..

I have Luck ew most passing this year and I feel he can break into the top 4... and have him at 21-1 which i feel is the sort of value the thread aspires to..

Also and this is a recommend... the line of 2.0 over 8.5 season wins looks a little off..they have a soft division apart from the Texans who they split with last year and a soft schedule... i identified at least 8 paper comfortable wins on their schedule and put them about 10-6... i mentioned this to tighty and he agreed.. I actually pressed the max button for this on 365 expecting something silly like 12 grand and was a little spooked it was the £300 i was going to wager anyway..

Saying that Luck will do his ACL week 1 and ill be screwed...lol


SEASON SWEAT RECOMMEND COLTS OVER 8.5 SEASON WINS @2.0 365 OR OTHER VARIOUS..AT LEAST A £100

We decided against this ?

[tikay]

The RP go for San Fran @ 8-1, and Cincy 25-1, Indy 50-1. Rather worryingly they agree with Spangles on 20-1 Andrew Luck.

Indy would be a headline and a half. Worst team in Football (no spurs gags, please) in 2011 and winning the superbowl in 2014. Would also be fun for Baltimore to be followed by Colts again.

The Colts became the worst team in the league mainly because Manning went down, which only enforces what a key position QB is...Luck comes in the next year and in his rookie season drags them to 11-5 behind a horrible O-line..he got hit last year...a lot but he looks very durable..unlike RGIII .Although I don't think the Colts will win the champioship but at 50-1 they look like a decent possibilty for greening out down the line.

I have watched NFL for 30 years and I believe Luck has the potential to be one of the best there ever was.. most expect him to push on from his rookie year and the colts are making improvements in some wanting areas...Cherilus at RT looks a good signing.. to take some pressure off luck to pass they have brought in Bradshaw at RB and if he can remain healthy they might start getting some decent balance.. I know the Colts want Luck to stay in the pocket more instead of running like a scared cat as his protection disintergrates..if the protection holds up he could cut secondarys to ribbons..

I have Luck ew most passing this year and I feel he can break into the top 4... and have him at 21-1 which i feel is the sort of value the thread aspires to..

Also and this is a recommend... the line of 2.0 over 8.5 season wins looks a little off..they have a soft division apart from the Texans who they split with last year and a soft schedule... i identified at least 8 paper comfortable wins on their schedule and put them about 10-6... i mentioned this to tighty and he agreed.. I actually pressed the max button for this on 365 expecting something silly like 12 grand and was a little spooked it was the £300 i was going to wager anyway..

Saying that Luck will do his ACL week 1 and ill be screwed...lol


SEASON SWEAT RECOMMEND COLTS OVER 8.5 SEASON WINS @2.0 365 OR OTHER VARIOUS..AT LEAST A £100

We decided against this ?

No - we have not reached a decision yet.

I put it out there, on the thread, twice I think. Tighty quite liked it I think, but one of the chaps who I most trust in NFL was dead against it, so I was between a rock & a hard place.

I did note that they won yesterday though.

As you may have noted, Tighty & I have been AWOL since Thursday, work stuff, & I'm trying to catch up now. It may well be that we have missed the price by now though. 

[the sicilian]

Ante post preseason I'm afraid so the market gone... No worries permission to be annoyingly smug if it wins or never to mention it again if it bombs

[doubleup]

BigAdz mentioned Jordan Spieth earlier in the week and how he thought he should be backed at 33/1 in this week's BMW Championship.

The early markets are up and he is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.  They are both quarter first 5 which I think is generous.  It also beats a very early Betfair market, albeit one with 40k backed so far.   Even if he does drift out a little there, then I can't see 8/1 top 5 looking bad value by start day.

For comparison he was 45/1 before the last tournament and 60/1 the one before, and he was 100/1+ for the Open not that long ago.  But he seems to have been underestimated in those tournaments, and has hit a 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th in the last 8 tournaments he has played.  He has also been selected for the US team in the President's Cup this week, so is obviously highly rated by his peers.  All this is known info, but we could still be ahead of the market here.

I know we have had a bad time with golf bets, but still think we should put at least £20 each way on.  If you want to put it down to the big fella, it is ok by me.

Edit. Edited number of places to 5, typo in the post

Morning Doobs.

Trying to get caught up here from 3 days absence, & a woefully unreliable wifi in Newcastle.

I have, inevitably, missed the 33/1, 28/1 is the best available to me now.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/bmw-championship/winner

Do the maths still stand up @ 28/1?

Happy to get on if so.

"....I know we have had a bad time with golf bets....."

I'm quite relaxed about that - golf betting is high variance, even the way we do it is relatively so, so that should not deter us.

We certainly ought to have some interest in this weeks (short field) BMW Championship.

When BigAdz mentioned him earlier in the week, he said we should look to back him at 33/1, and that felt about right.  So when the maths backed him up, I thought we should definitely back him.  Now we have a shorter price and I think the maths will make it a loser.

When I looked last night there were still a few to put prices up, and maybe somebody will put him back up to 33/1.  If that doesn't happen I think we have to give it a miss and wait for the inevitable.

I will have a look later in the week to see if there is any maths value, but with 5 places instead of 6 or 7 it becomes a lot less compelling.  Woods is still very short though, and think we have at least one Hills freebie left (I think there may be two as I got another free bet on the Lambert free bet.

As an aside I final tabled your Primo last night without troubling the top 5.  Richard "I can see all the cards" Orford gave me a bit of tuition on a couple of hands, so maybe I'll put them up on PHA.  I thought they were both pretty marginal.

Boylesports have now put prices up, they go 30/1 our man.

I'll wait & see what BetFred, Sporting Bet & Wm Hill come up with, & will continue to monitor it.

betfair sportsbook are 33-1  You should get on allright given that you are the exchange's biggest ice cream thanks to chompy

[tikay]

BigAdz mentioned Jordan Spieth earlier in the week and how he thought he should be backed at 33/1 in this week's BMW Championship.

The early markets are up and he is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.  They are both quarter first 5 which I think is generous.  It also beats a very early Betfair market, albeit one with 40k backed so far.   Even if he does drift out a little there, then I can't see 8/1 top 5 looking bad value by start day.

For comparison he was 45/1 before the last tournament and 60/1 the one before, and he was 100/1+ for the Open not that long ago.  But he seems to have been underestimated in those tournaments, and has hit a 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th in the last 8 tournaments he has played.  He has also been selected for the US team in the President's Cup this week, so is obviously highly rated by his peers.  All this is known info, but we could still be ahead of the market here.

I know we have had a bad time with golf bets, but still think we should put at least £20 each way on.  If you want to put it down to the big fella, it is ok by me.

Edit. Edited number of places to 5, typo in the post

Morning Doobs.

Trying to get caught up here from 3 days absence, & a woefully unreliable wifi in Newcastle.

I have, inevitably, missed the 33/1, 28/1 is the best available to me now.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/bmw-championship/winner

Do the maths still stand up @ 28/1?

Happy to get on if so.

"....I know we have had a bad time with golf bets....."

I'm quite relaxed about that - golf betting is high variance, even the way we do it is relatively so, so that should not deter us.

We certainly ought to have some interest in this weeks (short field) BMW Championship.

When BigAdz mentioned him earlier in the week, he said we should look to back him at 33/1, and that felt about right.  So when the maths backed him up, I thought we should definitely back him.  Now we have a shorter price and I think the maths will make it a loser.

When I looked last night there were still a few to put prices up, and maybe somebody will put him back up to 33/1.  If that doesn't happen I think we have to give it a miss and wait for the inevitable.

I will have a look later in the week to see if there is any maths value, but with 5 places instead of 6 or 7 it becomes a lot less compelling.  Woods is still very short though, and think we have at least one Hills freebie left (I think there may be two as I got another free bet on the Lambert free bet.

As an aside I final tabled your Primo last night without troubling the top 5.  Richard "I can see all the cards" Orford gave me a bit of tuition on a couple of hands, so maybe I'll put them up on PHA.  I thought they were both pretty marginal.

Boylesports have now put prices up, they go 30/1 our man.

I'll wait & see what BetFred, Sporting Bet & Wm Hill come up with, & will continue to monitor it.

betfair sportsbook are 33-1  You should get on allright given that you are the exchange's biggest ice cream thanks to chompy

Marv, don't remind me.

Great spot, thank you.

Just went to the Site, where I always keep a reasonable balance, & I only had £200 in there. Then I remembered that Chompy set fire to £1,400 of it on Saturday. The man is dangerous. 

[tikay]

I think this suggestion originally came from Adzy, Doobs then did all the nudging & nurdling, then doubleup spotted that 33/1 was available, so we are now on, for the suggested £20 EW.

We have £20 EW @ 33/1, Betfair Sportsbook, (qtr odds, 5 places), Jordan Speith, BMW Championship. 

ON

BMW Championship 2013
Jordan Spieth33/1  £865.20
Max £100.00   EW   Suspended Stake Removed Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000003

[Chompy]

Ha! No Premium Chargaments for you sir! Feel free to thank me.

I so nearly put the boy Wilson of Coventry up at 25/1 for top League One scorer yesterday, when he was on six goals. Then he went and smashed home another brace and is now 7/1

 

Celeb Big Bruv market has gone nutso this morning, with Charlotte driffing, Lauren now favourite and BigAbz now tight at 6/1. Will be monitoring this one closely; you might want to get some funds into Betty.

[tikay]

Ha! No Premium Chargaments for you sir! Feel free to thank me.

I so nearly put the boy Wilson of Coventry up at 25/1 for top League One scorer yesterday, when he was on six goals. Then he went and smashed home another brace and is now 7/1

 

Celeb Big Bruv market has gone nutso this morning, with Charlotte driffing, Lauren now favourite and BigAbz now tight at 6/1. Will be monitoring this one closely; you might want to get some funds into Betty.

At least I know how to now, having deposited a lump on Saturday.

[aaron1867]

The William Hill offer is at Brighton today & all favourites are 2/1 shorter in the first 6.

[Doobs]

The William Hill offer is at Brighton today & all favourites are 2/1 shorter in the first 6.

I don't see it on my phone, but Ladbrokes have the offer.  Maybe they have got wise to me?

[Marky147]

Ha! No Premium Chargaments for you sir! Feel free to thank me.

I so nearly put the boy Wilson of Coventry up at 25/1 for top League One scorer yesterday, when he was on six goals. Then he went and smashed home another brace and is now 7/1

 

Celeb Big Bruv market has gone nutso this morning, with Charlotte driffing, Lauren now favourite and BigAbz now tight at 6/1. Will be monitoring this one closely; you might want to get some funds into Betty.

What happened to cause the drift, did she swamp somebody else's bed?

Just had a look to see who that Lauren is... wtf?

[BigAdz]

Ha! No Premium Chargaments for you sir! Feel free to thank me.

I so nearly put the boy Wilson of Coventry up at 25/1 for top League One scorer yesterday, when he was on six goals. Then he went and smashed home another brace and is now 7/1

 

Celeb Big Bruv market has gone nutso this morning, with Charlotte driffing, Lauren now favourite and BigAbz now tight at 6/1. Will be monitoring this one closely; you might want to get some funds into Betty.

What happened to cause the drift, did she swamp somebody else's bed?

Just had a look to see who that Lauren is... wtf?

Your last bird?

[aaron1867]

The William Hill offer is at Brighton today & all favourites are 2/1 shorter in the first 6.

I don't see it on my phone, but Ladbrokes have the offer.  Maybe they have got wise to me?

I have maxed out on similar bets to you by the looks of previous days, do don't know. But the offer wasn't showing up earlier in 'promotions', but now it is

[Marky147]

Ha! No Premium Chargaments for you sir! Feel free to thank me.

I so nearly put the boy Wilson of Coventry up at 25/1 for top League One scorer yesterday, when he was on six goals. Then he went and smashed home another brace and is now 7/1

 

Celeb Big Bruv market has gone nutso this morning, with Charlotte driffing, Lauren now favourite and BigAbz now tight at 6/1. Will be monitoring this one closely; you might want to get some funds into Betty.

What happened to cause the drift, did she swamp somebody else's bed?

Just had a look to see who that Lauren is... wtf?

Your last bird?

My last bird probably did swamp the bed  on occasion

Oh, Lauren? Had to get rid, she was marrying some posh boy from the west country