Tips for Tikay

[edgascoigne]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

We would have to consider it, yes, but I'd need some help from Team Maths first.

We currently have a rather large £110 @ 10/11, on UNDER 17.5.

I'm not averse, but I need to grasp the maths & Bet Sizing first. Presumably we'd need to have another £110 the other way, which would mean we win big if he middles, (or "EsoKrals" as it is known in the trade)  & break even otherwise?

Ah, didn't know u had a bet already. I thought the 16.5 on offer at Coral looked high, 17.5 even better. I wouldn't wanna back him to get more than 13 or 14 myself. Taking less free kicks and not averse to pulling up lame too, plus he's missed all of preseason so won't hit the ground running now I wouldn't think. Maybe that will pile extra pressure on too, if he goes the first few games without doing much as he gets fit, not that patient the Madrid fans

Personally, I'm with you here Jeff, very much "Unders" for the reasons you mention, but I just need to grasp the maths of it all, & how much we'd need to bet to make it work.

Ed - why do you think 15-16-17 is a lot less than a 10/1 shot? Not arguing, just curious as to the logic.

Well....there's 35 games to come.

If we assume Real's tactical approach as constant to previous seasons (a dangerous assumption, I acknowledge) and look at their previous seasons' total goals (103, 121, 102, 102, 83), we average a season's expectancy of 102.2 goals.

Multiply that by 35/38 = 94.1 goals to come, or 2.69 goals/game.

***

If we look at Bale's appearance record since becoming a boss, he played 34/38 last season, 36/38 the season before and 29/38 the year before that, for an overall expected playing rate of 86.8%

That means we could expect him to play 30.4 games for Madrid this season, which I would mitigate down ever so slightly to accommodate for the increased competition for places. He's a flagship signing so not a huge adjustment but perhaps 5% feels appropriate. ie. 28.9, call it 29 games.

***

In theory then, Bale will be on the pitch for 29*2.69 goals, or 78 goals worth.

***

Then, if we weren't already there, we're into the extremely subjective, as we come to what % of Real's goals Bale could be expected to contribute. There's no way he'll have exclusivity over set pieces, which is a pretty big deal, and you'd have to expect Ronny to account for a chunk of the team's goals - historically he's basically gone at a goal a game, meaning in Bale's 29 games there is 49 goals left to play for.

15-17 represents 30.6%-34.7% as a range of contribution to the non-Ronny goals....


... And here I basically run out of logic except to say that if one built a distribution of goal expectation I would expect to see the results fall in the described range a chunk more than 9.09% of the time.

They'd be my thoughts anyway.

Not getting bolshy but if anyone would care to lay me any 10/1 about 15-17 goals inclusive I'm all ears!!

[Doobs]

May as well add another to the Leger book.  Foundry is 6/1 with Hills which beats Betfair and we have 2 free Hills bets.

Our Leger book is looking good.  Leading Light is now challenging for favouritism and we got 10/1.  Libertarian is only available at 8/1 in one spot currently.

Did we get this price?  

Rate Aaron is going, we can back the entire field.

[Nico29]

Great post Ed.

[aaron1867]

May as well add another to the Leger book.  Foundry is 6/1 with Hills which beats Betfair and we have 2 free Hills bets.

Our Leger book is looking good.  Leading Light is now challenging for favouritism and we got 10/1.  Libertarian is only available at 8/1 in one spot currently.

Did we get this price?  

Rate Aaron is going, we can back the entire field.

I only did it to give Tighty some work on the Spready!

[edgascoigne]

As an aside I should add that there are two interesting peripheral considerations, one positive, one negative.

+ve : Through reducing your exposure you decrease your volatility in spite of switching from a bet at 10/11 to a bet at 10/1. Reduced volatility, assuming it comes with a 0ev or +ev movement is a good thing.

-ve : You tie up a further £110 for a good period; though the two bets 'cancel' each other they are independently placed and the funds are not available to you. If you look at Fred's previous ROI of say 4% and how many times that money might be turned in that time then that is a serious dissuasion to the bet, or would be if funds were truly finite.

[tikay]

May as well add another to the Leger book.  Foundry is 6/1 with Hills which beats Betfair and we have 2 free Hills bets.

Our Leger book is looking good.  Leading Light is now challenging for favouritism and we got 10/1.  Libertarian is only available at 8/1 in one spot currently.

Did we get this price?  

Rate Aaron is going, we can back the entire field.

 

On the St Leger we have - SO FAR - FOUR bets, three of them £25 FREE BETS.

The "non-Free" bet is....

£30 EW @ 8/1, Libertarian

The three Free Bets are.....

£25 Win, Libertarian, 6/1

£25 Win, Leading Light, 10/1

£25 Win, Cap O'Rushes, 25/1

So I'm clear about this - head spinnage - are you suggesting a Free Bet on Foundry to win the St Leger, too??

[horseplayer]

Whilst i appreciate every bet is a seperate entity is there a real need for any more bets on a market that has been well established for a while now?

[tikay]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

We would have to consider it, yes, but I'd need some help from Team Maths first.

We currently have a rather large £110 @ 10/11, on UNDER 17.5.

I'm not averse, but I need to grasp the maths & Bet Sizing first. Presumably we'd need to have another £110 the other way, which would mean we win big if he middles, (or "EsoKrals" as it is known in the trade)  & break even otherwise?

Ah, didn't know u had a bet already. I thought the 16.5 on offer at Coral looked high, 17.5 even better. I wouldn't wanna back him to get more than 13 or 14 myself. Taking less free kicks and not averse to pulling up lame too, plus he's missed all of preseason so won't hit the ground running now I wouldn't think. Maybe that will pile extra pressure on too, if he goes the first few games without doing much as he gets fit, not that patient the Madrid fans

Personally, I'm with you here Jeff, very much "Unders" for the reasons you mention, but I just need to grasp the maths of it all, & how much we'd need to bet to make it work.

Ed - why do you think 15-16-17 is a lot less than a 10/1 shot? Not arguing, just curious as to the logic.

Well....there's 35 games to come.

If we assume Real's tactical approach as constant to previous seasons (a dangerous assumption, I acknowledge) and look at their previous seasons' total goals (103, 121, 102, 102, 83), we average a season's expectancy of 102.2 goals.

Multiply that by 35/38 = 94.1 goals to come, or 2.69 goals/game.

***

If we look at Bale's appearance record since becoming a boss, he played 34/38 last season, 36/38 the season before and 29/38 the year before that, for an overall expected playing rate of 86.8%

That means we could expect him to play 30.4 games for Madrid this season, which I would mitigate down ever so slightly to accommodate for the increased competition for places. He's a flagship signing so not a huge adjustment but perhaps 5% feels appropriate. ie. 28.9, call it 29 games.

***

In theory then, Bale will be on the pitch for 29*2.69 goals, or 78 goals worth.

***

Then, if we weren't already there, we're into the extremely subjective, as we come to what % of Real's goals Bale could be expected to contribute. There's no way he'll have exclusivity over set pieces, which is a pretty big deal, and you'd have to expect Ronny to account for a chunk of the team's goals - historically he's basically gone at a goal a game, meaning in Bale's 29 games there is 49 goals left to play for.

15-17 represents 30.6%-34.7% as a range of contribution to the non-Ronny goals....


... And here I basically run out of logic except to say that if one built a distribution of goal expectation I would expect to see the results fall in the described range a chunk more than 9.09% of the time.

They'd be my thoughts anyway.

Not getting bolshy but if anyone would care to lay me any 10/1 about 15-17 goals inclusive I'm all ears!!

Thanks Ed. Interesting.

Of the goal haul Mr Bale had at mid-table Spurs (ignore it, Dom, ignore it), how many were from free kicks, pens etc? He won't get too many of those this Season.

Might be worth considering another angle, which I've yet to see mentioned. For the OVERS to get home, he needs to stay fit. For the Unders, if, woe betide, he gets injured, (which I would not wish) we get a Freeroll.

[tikay]

Whilst i appreciate every bet is a seperate entity is there a real need for any more bets on a market that has been well established for a while now?

I honestly don't know, because the "Free Bet" element complicates it for me.

[TightEnd]

shouldn't we use the five free bets, as it is now, on fresh events rather than back the field in the St Leger?

you are limiting your EV from the free bets/whole strategy, as only one can win.....

[horseplayer]

It just looks to me like an excuse to use the free bets sometimes

Unless they are expiring within the next 24 hours dont see what the hurry is

[tikay]

Sorry I have no time, but most of these are written up elsewhere

For discussion

- Harlequins v Northampton in the RU tonight. Should be a cracker, Northampton are 3 point dogs but the weather is going to be grim, and Northampton have strengthened in the off season. A stray fiver on the draw at 20-1 is a possible for me. Northampton outright 11/8, 10/11 +3 I like, whereas I wouldn't have selected that last season.

- England in the 4th ODI tomorrow are out to 11/8. Australia were 4/5 before the first ODI, 4/6 before the 2nd and 3rd and 4/7 now

In part this is because Eng are stubbornly sticking to a line up lacking a fith bowler but there is a big toss bias in England in September. Cardiff tomorrow starts at 10.15am and whoever wins the toss is favourite. England currently 11/8 and thats value for a heads/tails call assuming the game then goes to a -difficult to bat first, advantage in batting second under D/L pattern that is typical of these games

- NFL is tougher this week I think but I think my pick is St Louis +7 at Atlanta. St Louis are much improved. Solid defense, more point scoring options, good long field goal kicker. Atlanta are hurting on the OL, and at WR. +7 St Louis is very much a price set off last year's form and not really a reflection of the health of both teams going into this game

No comments on thread about that, but several NFL whizzkids have been in touch & told me thy like that bet, so we'll likely get on.

Anyone against, speak now or hold your peace forever.......

As a rule, we back Tighty blind, but he made two things clear...

1) He is obliged to come up with a tip on every Televised game, whether he likes it or not.

2) This was for discusseion only, & I did not think he had a particularly strong view.

[tikay]

It just looks to me like an excuse to use the free bets sometimes

Unless they are expiring within the next 24 hours dont see what the hurry is

I'm guessing a bit here horsey, but we need long prices to make the logic work, & the Leger gives us that opportunity.

Not that easy to find reasonable long-priced shots.

[aaron1867]

Whilst i appreciate every bet is a seperate entity is there a real need for any more bets on a market that has been well established for a while now?

Not fully sure I understand here, but seemed too good to miss out on today with the small fields.

I would t have put 5 up if not

[TightEnd]

Sorry I have no time, but most of these are written up elsewhere

For discussion

- Harlequins v Northampton in the RU tonight. Should be a cracker, Northampton are 3 point dogs but the weather is going to be grim, and Northampton have strengthened in the off season. A stray fiver on the draw at 20-1 is a possible for me. Northampton outright 11/8, 10/11 +3 I like, whereas I wouldn't have selected that last season.

- England in the 4th ODI tomorrow are out to 11/8. Australia were 4/5 before the first ODI, 4/6 before the 2nd and 3rd and 4/7 now

In part this is because Eng are stubbornly sticking to a line up lacking a fith bowler but there is a big toss bias in England in September. Cardiff tomorrow starts at 10.15am and whoever wins the toss is favourite. England currently 11/8 and thats value for a heads/tails call assuming the game then goes to a -difficult to bat first, advantage in batting second under D/L pattern that is typical of these games

- NFL is tougher this week I think but I think my pick is St Louis +7 at Atlanta. St Louis are much improved. Solid defense, more point scoring options, good long field goal kicker. Atlanta are hurting on the OL, and at WR. +7 St Louis is very much a price set off last year's form and not really a reflection of the health of both teams going into this game

No comments on thread about that, but several NFL whizzkids have been in touch & told me thy like that bet, so we'll likely get on.

Anyone against, speak now or hold your peace forever.......

As a rule, we back Tighty blind, but he made two things clear...

1) He is obliged to come up with a tip on every Televised game, whether he likes it or not.

2) This was for discusseion only, & I did not think he had a particularly strong view.

St Louis/Atlanta isn't Televised in the UK

It's my standout NFL bet of the week, and I am writing it up tomorrow

For discussion really means: I haven't got the time to write them up properly this afternoon and there are several very good NFL minds on the thread. If you back the view up, please post......


The cricket bet is very much related to the toss, and is less strong a view