Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

Suggestion for your free Hills bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/grand-prix-de-quebec/winner

Filippo Pozzato, a winner at the beginning of the month in GP Ouest France - Plouay. Crucially, Pozatto hopes to cement a leaders spot in the upcoming World Championships but if he doesn’t ride well in Canada over the weekend and win, then Bettini (Italian manager) will focus all energies on Nibali for Florence.

Hills best priced at 18/1.

He's up against the uberwhizzkid Sagan, so EW maybe the way to go.

Thanks Bike Bloke, the perfect use of a Free Bet. Hils are considerably best priced here. Has to be Win Only though, not EW.

We have a £25 Free Bet, Wm Hill, Filippo Pozzato, 18/1, GP Quebec. (Bike Race)

Will you keep us updated please?

ON

13 Sep 13 / 15:44

Stake

GP Quebec - Outright – Filippo Pozzato @ 18/1

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000629/F

Will do.

Think it's in the small hours our time.

[aaron1867]

Ha

[Chompy]

I've not been following these free bets tbh. Are they worth the amount of work they seem to cause?

[Nico29]

Not a particular horse tip for fred, but in the 425 donny pp are going first 4 ew for a promo.

Seeing as there are only 14 runners it's a good race to bet each way in with them.

Most of their prices seem to be a few points shorter, does this still make it a good race for the extra place?

I'd just wait for the shows in that case and then personally I back anything blind that is similar to betfair-especially regarding the place part.

As of now the only one I backed with pp was gramercy who was 8-1 with them and on the machine.

13-2 now so obv best to leave that but as i say rule of thumb wait for the first show and compare the machine to the tissue then, obv bpg helps loads too.

[tikay]

Thats it for now, I need to take the dog for a walk.

I'll be a bit pre-occupied this evening, too, Allotment Society get-together, but I'll be on & off to get bets sorted.

Doobs, just confirm Foundry is a bet at 11/2 please, & I'll sort. 

[edgascoigne]

Thats it for now, I need to take the dog for a walk.

I'll be a bit pre-occupied this evening, too, Allotment Society get-together, but I'll be on & off to get bets sorted.

Doobs, just confirm Foundry is a bet at 11/2 please, & I'll sort. 

Enjoy.

[Doobs]

It just looks to me like an excuse to use the free bets sometimes

Unless they are expiring within the next 24 hours dont see what the hurry is

We have 5 free bets to use in a week.  

I am not going to find that many bets that have to be on Hills, and Hills alone, in the average week that I think are both value and a decent price (6/1+, preferably bigger).

I have tried looking at the golf markets, and Hills are rarely stand out on annything, and we'll be lucky to get close to Betfair, never mind beat it.  I have put some bets on ante post, and have a few on football markets.  Most of the other stuff is a bit far from my circle of expertise.

If I haven't got anything in mind then I really don't think there is any harm in when looking at the Leger market and spotting what looks like a decent price on Betfair nd just taking it.  I am really not going to find many that are a good price and beat Betfair on Hills in an average week without sittting on Betfair all week.  I may see something better on Saturday, I may not.  

The other bets on the Leger are irrelevant, if that bet is value or close to it, then it is fine.  Even if it is only the exact right price then we make our +20%.  

If people think they can do better, put the bets up in the morning and get the freebies and just go ahead.

Good luck Aaron.

I'm geting a bit lost in all this, do we still want to bet Foundry as a Free Bet? Fine by me if "yes".

Currently Wm Hill go 11/2, not 6/1 which you mentioned earlier, evidently whilst I was dithering, others were lumping on, the buggers.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-09-14-doncaster/15:50/winner

Too late now, I will find another.  I think Tonji has taken my Hills one anyway.  So my duty is now just the Ladbrokes one.  

[Nico29]

I've not been following these free bets tbh. Are they worth the amount of work they seem to cause?

You Sir are a real rabble rouser. Always trying too find something too complain about. Shocking.

[nirvana]

I've not been following these free bets tbh. Are they worth the amount of work they seem to cause?

You Sir are a real rabble rouser. Always trying too find something too complain about. Shocking.

To true

[the sicilian]

Still having trouble getting my head round these free bets
an awful lot invested to garner small -ev wins and a load of free bets that have no guarentee of winning anything
looking at last month if it wasnt for mr channings horses the thread would have lost money ?

[tikay]

It just looks to me like an excuse to use the free bets sometimes

Unless they are expiring within the next 24 hours dont see what the hurry is

We have 5 free bets to use in a week.  

I am not going to find that many bets that have to be on Hills, and Hills alone, in the average week that I think are both value and a decent price (6/1+, preferably bigger).

I have tried looking at the golf markets, and Hills are rarely stand out on annything, and we'll be lucky to get close to Betfair, never mind beat it.  I have put some bets on ante post, and have a few on football markets.  Most of the other stuff is a bit far from my circle of expertise.

If I haven't got anything in mind then I really don't think there is any harm in when looking at the Leger market and spotting what looks like a decent price on Betfair nd just taking it.  I am really not going to find many that are a good price and beat Betfair on Hills in an average week without sittting on Betfair all week.  I may see something better on Saturday, I may not.  

The other bets on the Leger are irrelevant, if that bet is value or close to it, then it is fine.  Even if it is only the exact right price then we make our +20%.  

If people think they can do better, put the bets up in the morning and get the freebies and just go ahead.

Good luck Aaron.

I'm geting a bit lost in all this, do we still want to bet Foundry as a Free Bet? Fine by me if "yes".

Currently Wm Hill go 11/2, not 6/1 which you mentioned earlier, evidently whilst I was dithering, others were lumping on, the buggers.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-09-14-doncaster/15:50/winner

Too late now, I will find another.  I think Tonji has taken my Hills one anyway.  So my duty is now just the Ladbrokes one.  

No, we have at least one other Wm Hill £25 Free Bet, maybe more, plus any Ladbrokes ones.

The Free Bet does not have to arise from your original selection, anyone can use them.

[tikay]

Still having trouble getting my head round these free bets
an awful lot invested to garner small -ev wins and a load of free bets that have no guarentee of winning anything
looking at last month if it wasnt for mr channings horses the thread would have lost money ?

Have a read through the thread please Dean, it has been explained numerous times. The Free bets are +ev.

[the sicilian]

Still having trouble getting my head round these free bets
an awful lot invested to garner small -ev wins and a load of free bets that have no guarentee of winning anything
looking at last month if it wasnt for mr channings horses the thread would have lost money ?

Have a read through the thread please Dean, it has been explained numerous times. The Free bets are +ev.

if you say so...be nice to get some seperate figures to see if that is in fact the case

[DungBeetle]

Some help please.

Betfair have a special market on Saturday premiership "which player to score first" from a selection of 20 odd.

One of the options is "none of the above to score", which from looking at rules = none of the named players to score at any time on Saturday.

You can lay at 7-1, and I've calculated that it is actually about a 10,000-1 shot that none of the named player score at any time on Saturday (and if you read the rules that is what the option is I think).  So basically you can back at 1/7 that one of the named players scores at some point on Saturday, and it's in fact a  1/10,000 shot.

Someone will point out where I am going wrong I am sure!  It's under "3pm Kick-off Specials"

[tikay]

Still having trouble getting my head round these free bets
an awful lot invested to garner small -ev wins and a load of free bets that have no guarentee of winning anything
looking at last month if it wasnt for mr channings horses the thread would have lost money ?

Quite possibly, but I don't look at it that way, you have to take a wider view. It could equally be said if we had not placed bets on some specific sports or suggestions we would be £thousands better off. It is a Community thread, & it would not work if we just waited for Neil to stick bets up.

We are a shade under 5% ROI over 2,320 bets, despite all our early failings & learning curves, & the Pros seem to think that is very reasonable.