Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Some help please.

Betfair have a special market on Saturday premiership "which player to score first" from a selection of 20 odd.

One of the options is "none of the above to score", which from looking at rules = none of the named players to score at any time on Saturday.

You can lay at 7-1, and I've calculated that it is actually about a 10,000-1 shot that none of the named player score at any time on Saturday (and if you read the rules that is what the option is I think).  So basically you can back at 1/7 that one of the named players scores at some point on Saturday, and it's in fact a  1/10,000 shot.

Someone will point out where I am going wrong I am sure!  It's under "3pm Kick-off Specials"

By the way - I arrived at my 10,000 number by getting the odds of players "to score" in the individual matches, inverting them, and then doing a massive multiple.  Correct reasoning?

[DungBeetle]

This is also being discussed on betfair forum, but I'm sure it's a case of if something is too good to be true, it probably is.

[tikay]

Still having trouble getting my head round these free bets
an awful lot invested to garner small -ev wins and a load of free bets that have no guarentee of winning anything
looking at last month if it wasnt for mr channings horses the thread would have lost money ?

Have a read through the thread please Dean, it has been explained numerous times. The Free bets are +ev.

if you say so...be nice to get some seperate figures to see if that is in fact the case

From whom? What do you mean "seperate figures"?

It has been justified on this thread at least 20 times. If you or anyone else can refute the logic, it'd be good to see it.

The debate is not whether they are + or -EV, it is proven that they are, it is whether we should do them.

The two sides are the workload it creates, versus the fun some of us have, & enjoy, by doing bets which are guaranteed +Ev.

[the sicilian]

Still having trouble getting my head round these free bets
an awful lot invested to garner small -ev wins and a load of free bets that have no guarentee of winning anything
looking at last month if it wasnt for mr channings horses the thread would have lost money ?

Have a read through the thread please Dean, it has been explained numerous times. The Free bets are +ev.

if you say so...be nice to get some seperate figures to see if that is in fact the case

From whom? What do you mean "seperate figures"?

It has been justified on this thread at least 20 times. If you or anyone else can refute the logic, it'd be good to see it.

The debate is not whether they are + or -EV, it is proven that they are, it is whether we should do them.

The two sides are the workload it creates, versus the fun some of us have, & enjoy, by doing bets which are guaranteed +Ev.

separate the bets placed within the free bet criteria and see if the theory is correct in practice.... ?

[TightEnd]

Dean some figures for the free bets were shown a few weeks ago

a free bets tab was set up on the spreadsheet in June

Since then

29 free bets have been gained

2 have won

1 was a cash refund

21 have lost

5 are yet to be placed


Before then notable free bet wins included Declaration of War and Graeme Swann

The very nature of the free bets on the thread is that they are placed at medium to long prices, the maths of that having been demonstrated compared to backing odds on shots with the free bet, and thus the winners might be few and far between but the returns when they do come will be good

Declaration of War at Ascot, for example was + £300 net


To go further needs:

going back through each month from Jan 2012 to June 2013 and checking free bet returns before the spreadhseet was expanded with the extra tab

going back over every month Jan 2012 to now and checking the results from the original bets, win and lose, from which the free bets spawned, plus bets put on for the free bet EV that won outright (so a return but no free bet) and those that lost with no free bet

even then you have the issue of whether the sample size is significant

I don't see the return from that will be worth the effort for me but there is nothing stopping anyone doing it


I moan about the free bets, because I do the spreadsheet and they are a pain to record and follow, but that moaning is secondary to the enjoyment/number of sweats they can generate

Current free bets on the Arc, the NFL, the 1000 Guineas, the NHL etc don't in some cases run to conclusion til mid 2014 so they provide a lot of "content" for the thread too, as long as progress is update d

[tikay]

Still having trouble getting my head round these free bets
an awful lot invested to garner small -ev wins and a load of free bets that have no guarentee of winning anything
looking at last month if it wasnt for mr channings horses the thread would have lost money ?

Have a read through the thread please Dean, it has been explained numerous times. The Free bets are +ev.

if you say so...be nice to get some seperate figures to see if that is in fact the case

From whom? What do you mean "seperate figures"?

It has been justified on this thread at least 20 times. If you or anyone else can refute the logic, it'd be good to see it.

The debate is not whether they are + or -EV, it is proven that they are, it is whether we should do them.

The two sides are the workload it creates, versus the fun some of us have, & enjoy, by doing bets which are guaranteed +Ev.

separate the bets placed within the free bet criteria and see if the theory is correct in practice.... ?

I don't have the time to do that, but you, or anyone else, can do it.

Sample size is important, too.

The Maths have been proven by various people on countless occasions.

Over time, it is +Ev.

[tikay]

Dean some figures for the free bets were shown a few weeks ago

a free bets tab was set up on the spreadsheet in June

Since then

29 free bets have been gained

2 have won

1 was a cash refund

21 have lost

5 are yet to be placed


Before then notable free bet wins included Declaration of War and Graeme Swann

The very nature of the free bets on the thread is that they are placed at medium to long prices, the maths of that having been demonstrated compared to backing odds on shots with the free bet, and thus the winners might be few and far between but the returns when they do come will be good

Declaration of War at Ascot, for example was + £300 net


To go further needs:

going back through each month from Jan 2012 to June 2013 and checking free bet returns before the spreadhseet was expanded with the extra tab

going back over every month Jan 2012 to now and checking the results from the original bets, win and lose, from which the free bets spawned, plus bets put on for the free bet EV that won outright (so a return but no free bet) and those that lost with no free bet

even then you have the issue of whether the sample size is significant

I don't see the return from that will be worth the effort for me but there is nothing stopping anyone doing it


I moan about the free bets, because I do the spreadsheet and they are a pain to record and follow, but that moaning is secondary to the enjoyment/number of sweats they can generate

Current free bets on the Arc, the NFL, the 1000 Guineas, the NHL etc don't in some cases run to conclusion til mid 2014 so they provide a lot of "content" for the thread too, as long as progress is update d

To make that number relevant, you have to include the number of ORIGINAL bets that won, or finished third or worse, & thus did not create a Free Bet.

An easier way is to examine the mathematical logic. The Bets need to conform with the logic, (not all bets do) or we should not do them. Generally speaking, most meet the required criteria, as to the original bet, & the Freebie.

[the sicilian]

Dean some figures for the free bets were shown a few weeks ago

a free bets tab was set up on the spreadsheet in June

Since then

29 free bets have been gained

2 have won

1 was a cash refund

21 have lost

5 are yet to be placed


Before then notable free bet wins included Declaration of War and Graeme Swann

The very nature of the free bets on the thread is that they are placed at medium to long prices, the maths of that having been demonstrated compared to backing odds on shots with the free bet, and thus the winners might be few and far between but the returns when they do come will be good

Declaration of War at Ascot, for example was + £300 net


To go further needs:

going back through each month from Jan 2012 to June 2013 and checking free bet returns before the spreadhseet was expanded with the extra tab

going back over every month Jan 2012 to now and checking the results from the original bets, win and lose, from which the free bets spawned

even then you have the issue of whether the sample size is significant

I don't see the return from that will be worth the effort for me but there is nothing stopping anyone doing it


I moan about the free bets, because I do the spreadsheet and they are a pain to record and follow, but that moaning is secondary to the enjoyment/number of sweats they can generate

Current free bets on the Arc, the NFL, the 1000 Guineas, the NHL etc don't in some cases run to conclusion til mid 2014 so they provide a lot of "content" for the thread too, as long as progress is update d

Im assuming the main purpose of the excercise is for garnering thread content and sweatability ( prob not a word ) and not pure monetary gain ?

[TightEnd]

Dean some figures for the free bets were shown a few weeks ago

a free bets tab was set up on the spreadsheet in June

Since then

29 free bets have been gained

2 have won

1 was a cash refund

21 have lost

5 are yet to be placed


Before then notable free bet wins included Declaration of War and Graeme Swann

The very nature of the free bets on the thread is that they are placed at medium to long prices, the maths of that having been demonstrated compared to backing odds on shots with the free bet, and thus the winners might be few and far between but the returns when they do come will be good

Declaration of War at Ascot, for example was + £300 net


To go further needs:

going back through each month from Jan 2012 to June 2013 and checking free bet returns before the spreadhseet was expanded with the extra tab

going back over every month Jan 2012 to now and checking the results from the original bets, win and lose, from which the free bets spawned

even then you have the issue of whether the sample size is significant

I don't see the return from that will be worth the effort for me but there is nothing stopping anyone doing it


I moan about the free bets, because I do the spreadsheet and they are a pain to record and follow, but that moaning is secondary to the enjoyment/number of sweats they can generate

Current free bets on the Arc, the NFL, the 1000 Guineas, the NHL etc don't in some cases run to conclusion til mid 2014 so they provide a lot of "content" for the thread too, as long as progress is update d

Im assuming the main purpose of the excercise is for garnering thread content and sweatability ( prob not a word ) and not pure monetary gain ?

Not necessarily, you need to look at the bigger picture. the aim is a combination of making money (otherwise there is no point) and a good thread/supporting each other/persuading people to visit blonde etc etc

Its a fun thread, that a lot of people enjoy participating in

If it were not done with a community focus, I don't think it would be so popular

[tikay]

Dean some figures for the free bets were shown a few weeks ago

a free bets tab was set up on the spreadsheet in June

Since then

29 free bets have been gained

2 have won

1 was a cash refund

21 have lost

5 are yet to be placed


Before then notable free bet wins included Declaration of War and Graeme Swann

The very nature of the free bets on the thread is that they are placed at medium to long prices, the maths of that having been demonstrated compared to backing odds on shots with the free bet, and thus the winners might be few and far between but the returns when they do come will be good

Declaration of War at Ascot, for example was + £300 net


To go further needs:

going back through each month from Jan 2012 to June 2013 and checking free bet returns before the spreadhseet was expanded with the extra tab

going back over every month Jan 2012 to now and checking the results from the original bets, win and lose, from which the free bets spawned, plus bets put on for the free bet EV that won outright (so a return but no free bet) and those that lost with no free bet
even then you have the issue of whether the sample size is significant

I don't see the return from that will be worth the effort for me but there is nothing stopping anyone doing it


I moan about the free bets, because I do the spreadsheet and they are a pain to record and follow, but that moaning is secondary to the enjoyment/number of sweats they can generate

Current free bets on the Arc, the NFL, the 1000 Guineas, the NHL etc don't in some cases run to conclusion til mid 2014 so they provide a lot of "content" for the thread too, as long as progress is update d

Sorry Rich, I missed that, which was the point I reiterated.

Far easier just to do the maths.

[Jamier-Host]

Im assuming the main purpose of the excercise is for garnering thread content and sweatability ( prob not a word ) and not pure monetary gain ?

The purpose of the thread or these bet types specifically?  These bets are for the longterm cash, but handily the type of stuff we bet on tends to produce longterm sweats too.

We'll probably get blocked from doing them at some point unfortunately.

[tikay]

Im assuming the main purpose of the excercise is for garnering thread content and sweatability ( prob not a word ) and not pure monetary gain ?

The purpose of the thread or these bet types specifically?  These bets are for the longterm cash, but handily the type of stuff we bet on tends to produce longterm sweats too.

We'll probably get blocked from doing them at some point unfortunately.

Quite possibly, but don't forget, I place a lot of bets - far far more in volume and value than Fred does - with Wm Hill & Ladbrokes myself, & this helps.

It will be a shame if we ruin our Accounts with either, but it is almost inevitable that we'll lose them eventually, I've lost half a dozen (who did NOT do Offers) already. Eventually, Fred will have run its course anyway, a point it may well be approaching. If so, it's been fun, & we've made a few bob.

[horseplayer]

it appears the sungate does work

well done

[tikay]

Wondering if doobs would advise Zain Eagle@7/4 in the 5pm at donny today?

Ladbrokes have the £25 free bet refund for the whole St Leger meeting not just the Ch4 races.

Only concern would be that it's 3.15 on Betfair, but with the concession I thought it might 'fit' into his category.

Does fred get bpg with laddies?

Can't even remember now if I did that!

Won easing up anyway, well done Dom.

[TightEnd]

After Zain Eagle bolts up

today

2 Winners, 4 seconds

Net loss £14 and four £25 free bets for the shots to nothing....