Tips for Tikay

[Bazzaboy]

Boxing

Galahad v Dickens.  I rate Galahad highly and expect him to have too much class for Dickens who is a decent prospect himself.  As good as Galahad is he doesn't hit hard and his 7 stoppages in 14 fights flatters him.  His stoppages come from outclassing his opponent rather than one punch KO power.  This is his toughest test to date and Dickens will be competitive but Galahad should take over in the second half of the fight and get a decision on the cards, something like 117-111.  Recommend £50 on Galahad decision at 8/5 with Lads (13/8 available with ).

Molina v Smith. This is probably going to be a borefest as neither has a style which is pleasing on the eye.  The referee will be a busy man and will have a key part to play.  Molina is the favourite but is very short. Molina is the better fighter but is fighting in Smith's back yard, Smith is the champion and he is also part of Team Mayweather.  Smith has a lot in his favour. Molina is going to have to win this clearly to get the decision and I'm not sure he does that.  If it's close at all Smith is likely to get the decision, and even if it's not he might still get it. Recommend £20 on Smith at 3/1 with Coral or Betfred.

[tikay]

Boxing

Galahad v Dickens.  I rate Galahad highly and expect him to have too much class for Dickens who is a decent prospect himself.  As good as Galahad is he doesn't hit hard and his 7 stoppages in 14 fights flatters him.  His stoppages come from outclassing his opponent rather than one punch KO power.  This is his toughest test to date and Dickens will be competitive but Galahad should take over in the second half of the fight and get a decision on the cards, something like 117-111.  Recommend £50 on Galahad decision at 8/5 with Lads (13/8 available with ).

Molina v Smith. This is probably going to be a borefest as neither has a style which is pleasing on the eye.  The referee will be a busy man and will have a key part to play.  Molina is the favourite but is very short. Molina is the better fighter but is fighting in Smith's back yard, Smith is the champion and he is also part of Team Mayweather.  Smith has a lot in his favour. Molina is going to have to win this clearly to get the decision and I'm not sure he does that.  If it's close at all Smith is likely to get the decision, and even if it's not he might still get it. Recommend £20 on Smith at 3/1 with Coral or Betfred.

Good stuff Bazza, thank you very much. We got both of them on exactly as suggested.

£50 @ 8/5, Ladbrokes, Galahad over Dickson BY DECISION.

£20 @ 3/1, BetFred, Smith to beat Molina.

ON




Kid Galahad - By Decision or Technical Decision
Kid Galahad v James Dickens

 Singles - How will the fight be won?

1 line @ £50.0 per line
.
Total Stake £50.00

Potential Return £130.00

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000435

_______________

Bet placed, its reference is 174/187
 
Bet ref: 174/187 £20.00 Single

Molina v Smith
Bout 3 way

Smith, Ishe

3/1

Total stake

£ 20.00

Estimated return

£ 80.00

£ 20.00

£ 80.00

[tikay]

Do we not want to have a FOURTH bet on Posh to score a hatful v Bristol?

[tikay]

FAC1Q

Greenhouse London v Bedford Town

£20 win Greenhouse 5-1 BetVictor

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/greenhouse-london-v-bedford/winner

Greenhouse are the London Mauritians expat team, playing in the Essex Senior League, at Haringey Borough's ground

Bedford are my team. They play two divisions higher, in the Southern Prem but every single player is from the United Counties League in the close season, the equivalent division regionally to the Essex Senior League

This is because the Bedford chairman cut the playing budget by 75% in the summer, and the squad had to be recruited from lower divisions

All but one of the players are u21

The side is out of its depth in the SLP

Last three away results 1-4,1-6, 0-4. Conceded 20 goals in six games this season


So BetVictor do not realise that this is basically equivalent teams, and have priced it on which league the respective teams are in

I make the game a pick-em, and you can get 5-1 the home team

Thanks Rich.

We are on EXACTLY as suggested, details later.

ON

CONFIRMATION ONLY

£20 @ 5/1, BetVictor, Greenhouse London to beat Bedford Town, FA Cup . Pleased we got on earlier, BMU now go 3/1. Corals still have 9/2 for those interested.

ON


13/09/2013 GBP 20.00 Single: GREENHOUSE LONDON @ 5/1

Betid 33815385100 Time: 23:02 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 20.00

Greenhouse London v Bedford Town ENG FA Cup
Match Betting - 90 Mins

Greenhouse London

5/1

[tikay]

BET SUGGESTION £20 WIN CHALFONT ST PETER 85/40 VC BET

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/chalfont-st-peter-v-metropolitan-police/winner

Betway were a standout earlier on but that has long gone

At the prices still worth £20

All second hand info this but had it from two seperate people today both of whom are good non league judges.

Both told me independently they would have chalfont 13-8ish for this game

Started season badly but playing better than results suggest, Met Police division higher but not had a good start either

Obviously not a great idea to have a bigger bet anyway as sort of market that would not help an accounts lifespan

Thanks Horsey.

We are ON, £20 @ 85/40, BetVictor, Chalfont St Peter over Met Police.

Details later, busy right now.

ON

CONFIRMATION ONLY


Chalfont St Peter v Metropolitan PoliceChalfont St Peter (Match Betting)Odds: 85/40 Stake: 20.00Possible Return:  62.50

[pleno1]

I think villa bpwill be overratd tomorrow due to their form vs arsenal and Chelsea.

They were playing counter attacking football but pardew ill likely park the bus. We have had 2 consecutive clean sheets and berbatov completely marked out the game. Villa will have more possession than usual and I'm not sure that suits them.

Newcastle re n full fitness (Jonas injured is a bonus rather than a minus as the bookies will take it.

Would probably Asian handicap newcastle here.

Additional stuff - cabaye wants to be in French squad so badly and will fight for it
- other French players more content now cabaye stays
- Ben arfa hasn't been injured for a long time and in two teams who may stalemate each other he can be the game changer
- newcastle will be underrated because of last yers performance which was with a lot,of injuries.

Lil Dave backs it I'm sure!

[TheDazzler]

I think villa bpwill be overratd tomorrow due to their form vs arsenal and Chelsea.

They were playing counter attacking football but pardew ill likely park the bus. We have had 2 consecutive clean sheets and berbatov completely marked out the game. Villa will have more possession than usual and I'm not sure that suits them.

Newcastle re n full fitness (Jonas injured is a bonus rather than a minus as the bookies will take it.

Would probably Asian handicap newcastle here.

Additional stuff - cabaye wants to be in French squad so badly and will fight for it
- other French players more content now cabaye stays
- Ben arfa hasn't been injured for a long time and in two teams who may stalemate each other he can be the game changer
- newcastle will be underrated because of last yers performance which was with a lot,of injuries.

Lil Dave backs it I'm sure!

I think Villa got more points away from home last year than at home so I'd agree with the counter attacking style suiting them. I believe you may be right in them being (slightly) over rated.
But they were very lucky at Arsenal, very unlucky at Chelsea so that somewhat evens itself out.
Both Pool and Chelsea were both very over rated at various times at home last year, Pool at the start and Chelsea when Benitez first arrived. Villa may similarly have a small home over rating at the moment although I think they are overall a better, more settled side this year.

Berba was appalling in that game but I suspect that may have something to do with Bents arrival at the club rather than Newcastle.
The whole Cabaye issue I would see as a negative. I would imagine he'd have liked to go to Arsenal and is unlikely to be a great frame of mind.
Ben Arfa does look lively at the mo and could be a game changer. So could Benteke however.
I'm not sure Newcastle are under rated? They are better than last years performanace showed but not as good as the previous years performance. They ran bad last year, really well the year before. Somewhere in the middle would be their true 'win rate' imo.
I think that's where people see them. Midtable, probably not challenging for Europe, probably not threatened by relegation.

Newcastle have won 2 of their last 21 away Prem games. Okay, they are probably better than the bare stats but they are generally 13/5. I wouldn't put anybody off a bet but if the prices are wrong, it's pretty marginal imo.

[tikay]

I think villa bpwill be overratd tomorrow due to their form vs arsenal and Chelsea.

They were playing counter attacking football but pardew ill likely park the bus. We have had 2 consecutive clean sheets and berbatov completely marked out the game. Villa will have more possession than usual and I'm not sure that suits them.

Newcastle re n full fitness (Jonas injured is a bonus rather than a minus as the bookies will take it.

Would probably Asian handicap newcastle here.

Additional stuff - cabaye wants to be in French squad so badly and will fight for it
- other French players more content now cabaye stays
- Ben arfa hasn't been injured for a long time and in two teams who may stalemate each other he can be the game changer
- newcastle will be underrated because of last yers performance which was with a lot,of injuries.

Lil Dave backs it I'm sure!

Morning Plinop, & thanks for the suggestion.

At present, it is not a Fred bet, because you appear to have omitted THE most important component - the PRICE, & thus the value.

I hope this does not sound like teaching Gran to suck eggs, but......irrespective of our view on any game, there is....

1) A price which is value. This would be a bet.

2) A price which is about right. This would not be a bet, as it includes the Bookies profit margin, say 10 to 12%.

3) A price which is too short. No bet.  

On the match in question, Villa v Newcastle, we could bet ANY of the three outcomes if it were wrongly priced.

The likes of Camel, Dubai, redarmi, Channing will often say, for example, "I fancied Arsenal @ 2/1, but they are 6/4 now, so that is a lay". A good bet is the judgement between who will win, & the price. BOTH must be considered.

Man U are 1/5 today, & near certainties. I'd never bet it though, as it does not rep value, especially in such a liquiid market, where the prices across the board are almost certainly corrct. A correct price is the price at which the bookie makes his 10%. And the punters lose 10%.

The PRICE is the key component of ANY bet if we want to make money long-term & consistently.

You have not named the price at which you consider Newcastle to be value, so at present, we have no idea if we would have value.

The prices are here....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/aston-villa-v-newcastle/winner

As a rule of thumb, if you can beat the Betfair price by much of a margin, ANY result is probably a good bet. If we think Newcastle will win, but the price is wrong, we'd never bet it.

It is quite rare for prices for Premier League games to be wrong, especially when they have been up for a week. The value comes, for example, DURING or immediately after their previous game, when sharps spot something which is not yet in the price.

Bookies get vey rich because the vast majority of punters place bets at CORRECT prices. Bookies are CERTAIN to win (long term) at these prices, as certain as the Roulette wheel always wins in the end - its in the maths.

Hope that all makes sense. Not trying to be obdurate here, but that is how it works, or at least, how it works for me.

PS - I hope they win for you! And good luck with the SNE thing.

[tikay]

Saturday Sweat Sheet

We have so much going off today that I thought it might help if we had a sweat sheet.

This is ONLY for bets which complete TODAY, & excludes stuff like the Golf (completes tomorrow), & the "Season" Football stuff.

You can quickly find this Post by entering "Saturday" in the Search box.



St Leger Stakes, 3.40 Doncaster

Libertarian, £30 EW @ 8/1

Libertarian, £25 Free Bet @ 6/1

Libertarian, £25 Free Bet @ 8/1

Leading Light, £25 Free Bet @ 6/1

Cao O Rushes, £25 Free Bet @ 20/1

Excess St Leger Bets, £30 EW @ 5/1

Excess St Leger Bets, £20 EW @ 11/2

Chester, 2.20

Mr Red Clubs, £10 @ 16/1

Doncaster 2.05

Outstrip, £25 @ 6/4, Free £25 Bet if 2nd


League Two Football

Peterborough to score OVER 3.5 Goals, £15 @ 10/1  

Peterborough v Bristol City, OVER 5.5 Goals, £15 @ 9/1

Peterborough v Bristol City, OVER 5.5 Goals, £20 @ 19/2

FA Cup

Chalfont St Peter to beat Met Police, £20 @ 85/40

Greenhouse to beat Bedford, £20 @ 5/1

Boxing

Galahad to beat Dickens by Decision, £50 @ 8/5

Smith to beat Molina, £20 @ 3/1

Cricket

£40 @ 11/8, England to beat Australia.



Target

That little lot cost us £370, plus we have £100 of Free Bets in addition.

What am I bid for the lot? Any offers over £90?


Good luck today, whatever your money is on.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £958.06

Outstanding Bets £3270.90

Free bets outstanding FIVE, Ladbrokes x 3, William Hill x2, first expiry 17th Sept

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29

A loss of £39 yesterday

Ihtimal and Zain Eagle's facile victories at Doncaster as part of a six bet horse racing portfolio limited losses to £14 with the boon of no less than four free bets - the other four selections were second - to use over the next week

We took the Pellegrini MOTM Loss, and then got some of it back when Northampton beat Quins 13-6 last night for an overall profit of £25. I could have been more aggressive on Northampton, as the unders suggestion came in too, indeed it was home and hosed very early

We have a superb sweat in the BMW Golf  this weekend. Of our three selections

Snedeker is joint leader on -11. Furyk shot an incredible 59 yesterday to join him

Speith is -6 having shot 65 yesterday and is now T5

Donald is on -2 T17

The cricket yesterday saw curtailed play at all games. We'd like that to continue today, with Middlesex unlikely to win and Sussex having a shot at doing so in Div 1, and Essex sett to win their game in hand against Northants in Div 2

In baseball last night the Rays won. Just as well as the Orioles, Indians did too. Boston beat the Yankees and the Royals lost to Detroit

Today, no less than 36 thread positions play and/or settle. Monster report tomorrow then!

Amongst those positions, some of the oldest on the book come to fruition, hopefully in the St Leger

Come on Libertarian, Cap O'Rushes, Leading Light!

[aaron1867]

With regards to the free bet-gate, I'm curious to wonder when people would be happy to get your £25 on? I'm personally getting it on early morning because I'm noticing that some prices 2/1 and snSller and getting hammered in. Not that it matters today though as I don't have much interest at Donny, looks an absolute minefield in quite a few races.

Only race that looks it might be for Fred at Donny is the 2.05 with Outstrip @ 9/4 on mobile, think Doobs would +1 this, thankfully don't have 5 selections today, so I will give a day off Tighty! Although a thought for Fred is that I think the 4.25 looks a decent place to put one of our free bets on, the field isn't mighty and all prices are good for a free bet, not a recc but I do like Bishop Roko.

Not sure how much we have done in on Chompy's P'boro bet, but maybe a place for a free bet also, unless of course the price isn't fully available with where we have out free bets.

Good luck today!

[tikay]

Sorry I have no time, but most of these are written up elsewhere

For discussion

- Harlequins v Northampton in the RU tonight. Should be a cracker, Northampton are 3 point dogs but the weather is going to be grim, and Northampton have strengthened in the off season. A stray fiver on the draw at 20-1 is a possible for me. Northampton outright 11/8, 10/11 +3 I like, whereas I wouldn't have selected that last season.

- England in the 4th ODI tomorrow are out to 11/8. Australia were 4/5 before the first ODI, 4/6 before the 2nd and 3rd and 4/7 now

In part this is because Eng are stubbornly sticking to a line up lacking a fith bowler but there is a big toss bias in England in September. Cardiff tomorrow starts at 10.15am and whoever wins the toss is favourite. England currently 11/8 and thats value for a heads/tails call assuming the game then goes to a -difficult to bat first, advantage in batting second under D/L pattern that is typical of these games

- NFL is tougher this week I think but I think my pick is St Louis +7 at Atlanta. St Louis are much improved. Solid defense, more point scoring options, good long field goal kicker. Atlanta are hurting on the OL, and at WR. +7 St Louis is very much a price set off last year's form and not really a reflection of the health of both teams going into this game

We did the Rugby bet (WINNER), and we are on St Louis, so that just leaves the cricket bet.

We can still get 11/8 in one place, & we are effectively getting 11/8 on winning the toss, so this seems to be a must bet, albeit a rather odd (but correct) way to bet. I'd hate to be betting the Aussies (or EITHER) @ 4/7 to win the toss.
 
So we have had....

£40 @ 11/8, Sporting Bet, England to beat Australia, ODI, today.

ON

Type: Single
England v Australia - 4th ODI Match PricesEngland 11/8

 

Possible Payout 95.00 GBP

1 bet @
40.00 GBP


Total Cost: 40.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 95.00 GBP

[tikay]

With regards to the free bet-gate, I'm curious to wonder when people would be happy to get your £25 on? I'm personally getting it on early morning because I'm noticing that some prices 2/1 and snSller and getting hammered in. Not that it matters today though as I don't have much interest at Donny, looks an absolute minefield in quite a few races.

Only race that looks it might be for Fred at Donny is the 2.05 with Outstrip @ 9/4 on mobile, think Doobs would +1 this, thankfully don't have 5 selections today, so I will give a day off Tighty! Although a thought for Fred is that I think the 4.25 looks a decent place to put one of our free bets on, the field isn't mighty and all prices are good for a free bet, not a recc but I do like Bishop Roko.

Not sure how much we have done in on Chompy's P'boro bet, but maybe a place for a free bet also, unless of course the price isn't fully available with where we have out free bets.
Good luck today!

Thanks Aaron, good luck today to you, too.

The key component in selecting the Free Bets is a long(ish) price. The Maths do not work so well on, say, 2/1 shots.

The Peterborough bets would be a good example, but neither Hills nor Ladbrokes offer anything like Best Price, & somehow Chompy has already conned us into betting it THREE times. Plesase join me in giving him gip if it is 0-0. £50 well spent, imo.

[TightEnd]

Jim matches my score in Great Yarmouth front crazy golf 1993. I didn't sign my ball. Handed it back

Click to see full-size image.

Cristiano does his best to bring our unders bet in



Cricket in September. Not so good for Mr Rogers run accumulation

Click to see full-size image.

"A handbag?" The importance of being Joe Marler

Click to see full-size image.

Good luck my son

Click to see full-size image.

Ashton gate awaits. Anyone for the cover on 0-0?

[tikay]

rofl @ the Ashton Gate jibe.

0-0 here we come......