Tips for Tikay

[JoeBeevers]

Where will people find out score of that cup game?

Don't know. FlashScore are usually good, and they have listed the FA Cup games, but I don't think they are updating scores.

https://twitter.com/BedfordTown

Genius Joe.

Do you have similar for the mighty Chalfont St Peter Massive?

https://twitter.com/metpolicefc

[superwomble]

Think Ozil signing for Arsenal is good for Fred's Arsenal bets, but not so good for the Cazorla and Navas assist bets... Although I did read earlier that Cazorla has created most opportunities so far this season.

[Tal]

Where will people find out score of that cup game?

Don't know. FlashScore are usually good, and they have listed the FA Cup games, but I don't think they are updating scores.

https://twitter.com/BedfordTown

Genius Joe.

Do you have similar for the mighty Chalfont St Peter Massive?

https://twitter.com/metpolicefc

Bet they get some fun tweets sent to them

[LeedsRhodesy]

Nikki Nahki Wells is on the score sheet

[tikay]

Where will people find out score of that cup game?

Don't know. FlashScore are usually good, and they have listed the FA Cup games, but I don't think they are updating scores.

https://twitter.com/BedfordTown

Genius Joe.

Do you have similar for the mighty Chalfont St Peter Massive?

https://twitter.com/metpolicefc

Top work Joe, thanks.

[pleno1]

1-0 newcastle

[pleno1]

I think villa bpwill be overratd tomorrow due to their form vs arsenal and Chelsea.

They were playing counter attacking football but pardew ill likely park the bus. We have had 2 consecutive clean sheets and berbatov completely marked out the game. Villa will have more possession than usual and I'm not sure that suits them.

Newcastle re n full fitness (Jonas injured is a bonus rather than a minus as the bookies will take it.

Would probably Asian handicap newcastle here.

Additional stuff - cabaye wants to be in French squad so badly and will fight for it
- other French players more content now cabaye stays
- Ben arfa hasn't been injured for a long time and in two teams who may stalemate each other he can be the game changer
- newcastle will be underrated because of last yers performance which was with a lot,of injuries.

Lil Dave backs it I'm sure!

Morning Plinop, & thanks for the suggestion.

At present, it is not a Fred bet, because you appear to have omitted THE most important component - the PRICE, & thus the value.

I hope this does not sound like teaching Gran to suck eggs, but......irrespective of our view on any game, there is....

1) A price which is value. This would be a bet.

2) A price which is about right. This would not be a bet, as it includes the Bookies profit margin, say 10 to 12%.

3) A price which is too short. No bet.  

On the match in question, Villa v Newcastle, we could bet ANY of the three outcomes if it were wrongly priced.

The likes of Camel, Dubai, redarmi, Channing will often say, for example, "I fancied Arsenal @ 2/1, but they are 6/4 now, so that is a lay". A good bet is the judgement between who will win, & the price. BOTH must be considered.

Man U are 1/5 today, & near certainties. I'd never bet it though, as it does not rep value, especially in such a liquiid market, where the prices across the board are almost certainly corrct. A correct price is the price at which the bookie makes his 10%. And the punters lose 10%.

The PRICE is the key component of ANY bet if we want to make money long-term & consistently.

You have not named the price at which you consider Newcastle to be value, so at present, we have no idea if we would have value.

The prices are here....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/aston-villa-v-newcastle/winner

As a rule of thumb, if you can beat the Betfair price by much of a margin, ANY result is probably a good bet. If we think Newcastle will win, but the price is wrong, we'd never bet it.

It is quite rare for prices for Premier League games to be wrong, especially when they have been up for a week. The value comes, for example, DURING or immediately after their previous game, when sharps spot something which is not yet in the price.

Bookies get vey rich because the vast majority of punters place bets at CORRECT prices. Bookies are CERTAIN to win (long term) at these prices, as certain as the Roulette wheel always wins in the end - its in the maths.

Hope that all makes sense. Not trying to be obdurate here, but that is how it works, or at least, how it works for me.

PS - I hope they win for you! And good luck with the SNE thing.

i cant price but i can assume spots where bookies will misjudge.

[tikay]

I think villa bpwill be overratd tomorrow due to their form vs arsenal and Chelsea.

They were playing counter attacking football but pardew ill likely park the bus. We have had 2 consecutive clean sheets and berbatov completely marked out the game. Villa will have more possession than usual and I'm not sure that suits them.

Newcastle re n full fitness (Jonas injured is a bonus rather than a minus as the bookies will take it.

Would probably Asian handicap newcastle here.

Additional stuff - cabaye wants to be in French squad so badly and will fight for it
- other French players more content now cabaye stays
- Ben arfa hasn't been injured for a long time and in two teams who may stalemate each other he can be the game changer
- newcastle will be underrated because of last yers performance which was with a lot,of injuries.

Lil Dave backs it I'm sure!

Morning Plinop, & thanks for the suggestion.

At present, it is not a Fred bet, because you appear to have omitted THE most important component - the PRICE, & thus the value.

I hope this does not sound like teaching Gran to suck eggs, but......irrespective of our view on any game, there is....

1) A price which is value. This would be a bet.

2) A price which is about right. This would not be a bet, as it includes the Bookies profit margin, say 10 to 12%.

3) A price which is too short. No bet.  

On the match in question, Villa v Newcastle, we could bet ANY of the three outcomes if it were wrongly priced.

The likes of Camel, Dubai, redarmi, Channing will often say, for example, "I fancied Arsenal @ 2/1, but they are 6/4 now, so that is a lay". A good bet is the judgement between who will win, & the price. BOTH must be considered.

Man U are 1/5 today, & near certainties. I'd never bet it though, as it does not rep value, especially in such a liquiid market, where the prices across the board are almost certainly corrct. A correct price is the price at which the bookie makes his 10%. And the punters lose 10%.

The PRICE is the key component of ANY bet if we want to make money long-term & consistently.

You have not named the price at which you consider Newcastle to be value, so at present, we have no idea if we would have value.

The prices are here....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/aston-villa-v-newcastle/winner

As a rule of thumb, if you can beat the Betfair price by much of a margin, ANY result is probably a good bet. If we think Newcastle will win, but the price is wrong, we'd never bet it.

It is quite rare for prices for Premier League games to be wrong, especially when they have been up for a week. The value comes, for example, DURING or immediately after their previous game, when sharps spot something which is not yet in the price.

Bookies get vey rich because the vast majority of punters place bets at CORRECT prices. Bookies are CERTAIN to win (long term) at these prices, as certain as the Roulette wheel always wins in the end - its in the maths.

Hope that all makes sense. Not trying to be obdurate here, but that is how it works, or at least, how it works for me.

PS - I hope they win for you! And good luck with the SNE thing.

i cant price but i can assume spots where bookies will misjudge.

We still need the assumed price range though. Supposing it moved from (say) 2/1 to 6/4 before I saw it? A good bet at 2/1can be an awful bet at 6/4.

You are not just assuming you can out think the bookies, but also the betting market, which is two sided.

Really hope you win, but we have to know what price the suggestion is based upon.

[Chompy]

Goal at Ashton Gate...

Seriously, though, Bianca Westwood...

[Doobs]

Nikki Nahki Wells is on the score sheet

Boooom

[Chompy]

Sigh, Fatty Tomlin just missed a penalty

[TheDazzler]

Mesut Ozils first 30 minutes in an Arsenal shirt is making me look at this market thinking, 'this is going to look a silly big price at the end of the season, isn't it?'
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/pfa-player-of-the-year
I can't see that 'top assister' market anymore either. He's going to win that. Yes he is.

[superwomble]

2-0 Bedford...

[claypole]

Feeling the pressure....lets do this Excess, you da man Doyle

[rfgqqabc]

2-0 Bedford...

Just looking for this. Sigh.