Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Pleno, when did you put it up and at what price, i fancied it at the Palace game but never got round to betting it.

He Posted it at the very start of the season, or shortly thereafter, & I seem to recall the then price was 8/1.

It was an excellent spot.

[tikay]

Sunderland next home games

Man United
Chelsea
Arsenal
Newcastle
City
Liverpool
Spurs

Definitely possible they could lose all of the above, Id say average points would be 4. Away from home is always hard in the premiership and if they are bottom of the league after 15 games the fans will likely turn on Di Canio. He can blow at any moment and with a new chairman that brought in 13 new players so far he could easily shit himself and make a panic decision.


He is 8-1 so perhaps not value, but I feel like he is certain to fall to at least 4-1 or perhaps better so would be an excellant spot to punt big now with the intention of laying in the future?

What do people think?

BUMPED for reference.

The question "what do people think?" was asked, & there was some slight negativity from an Elder pertaining to the logic of betting this with a view to Laying.

[tikay]

Nice one Pleno.

Just found a few quid on it. And paid already, TY

That was a triple max

Aside from that, I can't believe I missed a bet on something manager related

Nice one Pads!

On this occasion, Marky, no - Adzy DID say, at the time, that he had "had a dabble".

[Tal]

We can debate whether it was a good bet but the fact remains Pleno posted it in good time and it won. No more needed on either side, really.

I couldn't remember who posted the suggestion or how strongly they were advocating backing Di Canio but fair play, Pleno and anyone who followed him.

Keep it civil, gents. It's Monday morning and JaffaCake hasn't arrived yet with his £43,000 SpursJokasaurus

[Waz1892]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/aston-villa-v-tottenham/winner

spurs played Thursday, Sunday and now Tuesday in a competition that is way down the list of priorities for them.  Villa, have the cups and that is it.

villa at home, 5/2with most seems like a reasonable bet?

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/aston-villa-v-tottenham/winner

spurs played Thursday, Sunday and now Tuesday in a competition that is way down the list of priorities for them.  Villa, have the cups and that is it.

villa at home, 5/2with most seems like a reasonable bet?

5/2, at home, & Spurs (away) have to play their third game in 6 days in a "not very interesting" Cup?

I'm not a football expert, but to me, that looks a must bet.

I'll need some advice from the grown-ups, but I've had a little bet for myself on the strength of your suggestion.

Views anyone?

The bookies have the same info as we do, perhaps I'm missing something here?

[tikay]

We are losing Brentford.  I suggest if you want to bet it you do it now.

In case you missed this, Camel had stick it up a week ago (Brentford to beat Leyton Orient tonight at a value price) but we were hoping it might drift to 6/4.

After reds mentioned this last night, Fred got on @ 13/10. 

The price has continued to move south this morning, & the 13/10 is only available in ONE spot now (Wm Hill), with most Firms @ around 6/5 or worse.

Based on Camel's original suggestion, it is not a bet at 6/5 or worse.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/brentford-v-leyton-orient/winner

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £664.81

Outstanding Bets £2617.90

Free Bets  None

Thread winnings at GUKPT Manchester £43,000

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29

An overall loss of £102 yesterday, summarised as follows

Golf, a loss of £50 with Speith's 2nd at 33/1 providing a £140 profit to offset the majority of the losers, mainly from match bets with Stenson

Football, a loss of £35 with Nastasic being booked inside the first ten minutes of the Manchester Derby and Mackay not being the first Premier League manager to be sacked

NFL, a loss of £17 across six bets, three winners and three losers. In effect break even less the over-round in prices from backing at 10/11 5/6 etc

As ever on a Sunday it was a busy day for longer term positions. In no particular order

- Vettel won the Sngapore GP in facile fashion. With six races to go he now leads the F1 WDC by 60 points and in recent races has been a second a lap clear of any other car including his team mate. Barring disaster, this bet should be confirmed as a winner with a couple of races to go

- Baseball. The Rays won again and so they have some clear blue water in the wild card race with 7 games to go. The Royals won with a walk off hit in extra innings to stay in the hunt. The Orioles and Yankees have been fading

Tampa Bay Rays    86    69    .555    -0.5    
Cleveland Indians    86    70    .551    --
--------------------------------------------------------   
Texas Rangers    84    71    .542    1.5    
Kansas City Royals    82    73    .529    3.5    
New York Yankees    82    74    .526    4    
Baltimore Orioles    81    74    .523    4.5

- Football

Positives

Arsenal beat Stoke 3-1 and we appear to have a genuine shot at the top 3

Palace lost at home to Swansea and are 2nd bottom, two points ahead of Sunderland

Paulinho scored his first goal of the season

Navas got an assist at the Etihad

Napoli beat AC Milan 2-1 at the San Siro and are joint top of the league after 4 games


Negatives

Villareal drew 0-0 at Vigo

Santi Cazorla is out injured for another 2-3 weeks so is falling behind in the assists charts

Ozil got three assists yesterday and I think has 5 in two games. Looks a very warm order, fitness permitting, to win this market. Was put up on here by TheDazzler (? I think) so that was another good spot

Cardiff, who we have +47 on the handicap lost in the 90+6 minute as the websites helpfully say.  Heroic performance from goalkeeper David Marshall to keep it at 0-0 for so long.

  
- NFL

No one will have read this far so I can indulge myself

The Bengals beat the 49ers 34-30 in a corker. This was the first game in NFL history where a team won a game having been 14 points ahead then 16 ponts down.

The AFC North division, which is the first priority for our Bengals bets, appears to be weaker than some years. Pittsburgh are 0-3 after a shellacking from the Bears overnight, Cleveland are in flux and the Ravens are also 2-1 and the main challenger

The Dolphins had a superb win against the Falcons to go 3-0, alongside the Patriots, who are the ugliest duckling of an unbeaten side ina long time. The Dolphins must have a real shot at winning this division

Including the Chiefs, all three of our divisional/team season bets are leading their respective divisions, for now

The Titans scored 20 points in beating the Chargers off the last play of the game. 20 points towards our season points total is fine. Unfortunately as it turns out the run of games coming up pits them against some of the best defenses.  The next four games are Jets, Chiefs, Sahawks, 49ers. Get through that within touching distance of 20 points a game and we are in with a shout  

In the QB bets

Brees 342 yards against a good Cardinal defense

Stafford 385 yards against a bad Washington Defense

Ryan 231 yards against a good Miami defense

the table. Three realistic shots at a return here, all bets are e/w top 3

1   Aaron Rodgers, 1,057
2   Drew Brees,    1,021
3   Matthew Stafford, 1,020   
4   Robert Griffin III, 975   
5   Eli Manning,   931   
6   Matt Ryan, 909

 

[typhoon13]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £664.81

Outstanding Bets £2617.90

Free Bets  None

Thread winnings at GUKPT Manchester £43,000

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29

An overall loss of £102 yesterday, summarised as follows

Golf, a loss of £50 with Speith's 2nd at 33/1 providing a £140 profit to offset the majority of the losers, mainly from match bets with Stenson

Football, a loss of £35 with Nastasic being booked inside the first ten minutes of the Manchester Derby and Mackay not being the first Premier League manager to be sacked

NFL, a loss of £17 across six bets, three winners and three losers. In effect break even less the over-round in prices from backing at 10/11 5/6 etc

As ever on a Sunday it was a busy day for longer term positions. In no particular order

- Vettel won the Sngapore GP in facile fashion. With six races to go he now leads the F1 WDC by 60 points and in recent races has been a second a lap clear of any other car including his team mate. Barring disaster, this bet should be confirmed as a winner with a couple of races to go

- Baseball. The Rays won again and so they have some clear blue water in the wild card race with 7 games to go. The Royals won with a walk off hit in extra innings to stay in the hunt. The Orioles and Yankees have been fading

Tampa Bay Rays    86    69    .555    -0.5    
Cleveland Indians    86    70    .551    --
--------------------------------------------------------   
Texas Rangers    84    71    .542    1.5    
Kansas City Royals    82    73    .529    3.5    
New York Yankees    82    74    .526    4    
Baltimore Orioles    81    74    .523    4.5

- Football

Positives

Arsenal beat Stoke 3-1 and we appear to have a genuine shot at the top 3

Palace lost at home to Swansea and are 2nd bottom, two points ahead of Sunderland

Paulinho scored his first goal of the season

Navas got an assist at the Etihad

Napoli beat AC Milan 2-1 at the San Siro and are joint top of the league after 4 games


Negatives

Villareal drew 0-0 at Vigo

Santi Cazorla is out injured for another 2-3 weeks so is falling behind in the assists charts

Ozil got three assists yesterday and I think has 5 in two games. Looks a very warm order, fitness permitting, to win this market. Was put up on here by TheDazzler (? I think) so that was another good spot

Cardiff, who we have +47 on the handicap lost in the 90+6 minute as the websites helpfully say.  Heroic performance from goalkeeper David Marshall to keep it at 0-0 for so long.

  
- NFL

No one will have read this far so I can indulge myself

The Bengals beat the 49ers 34-30 in a corker. This was the first game in NFL history where a team won a game having been 14 points ahead then 16 ponts down.

The AFC North division, which is the first priority for our Bengals bets, appears to be weaker than some years. Pittsburgh are 0-3 after a shellacking from the Bears overnight, Cleveland are in flux and the Ravens are also 2-1 and the main challenger

The Dolphins had a superb win against the Falcons to go 3-0, alongside the Patriots, who are the ugliest duckling of an unbeaten side ina long time. The Dolphins must have a real shot at winning this division

Including the Chiefs, all three of our divisional/team season bets are leading their respective divisions, for now

The Titans scored 20 points in beating the Chargers off the last play of the game. 20 points towards our season points total is fine. Unfortunately as it turns out the run of games coming up pits them against some of the best defenses.  The next four games are Jets, Chiefs, Sahawks, 49ers. Get through that within touching distance of 20 points a game and we are in with a shout  

In the QB bets

Brees 342 yards against a good Cardinal defense

Stafford 385 yards against a bad Washington Defense

Ryan 231 yards against a good Miami defense

the table. Three realistic shots at a return here, all bets are e/w top 3

1   Aaron Rodgers, 1,057
2   Drew Brees,    1,021
3   Matthew Stafford, 1,020   
4   Robert Griffin III, 975   
5   Eli Manning,   931   
6   Matt Ryan, 909

 

Pure professionalism

Fred very lucky to have you onboard sir

[TightEnd]

That'll be a late win for the Dolphins over the Falcons then

Click to see full-size image.

Gingers for the win. Hopefully, Dalton will do enough to support a very talented Bengals roster



Mind that wrist, Henrik

Click to see full-size image.

Alonso picks up a post race hitchhiker in Singapore

Click to see full-size image.

Much excitement in Cardiff as Paulinho delivers a late winner

Click to see full-size image.

This chap, Enny Romero, was called up from the Minor Leagues and on his debut pitched the Rays to an important win



It was quite a surprising move from Madrid, and met with some scepticism, but Jose Callejon's excellent performance against Milan yesterday continued to confound the doubters

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Thanks Rich - looks like we have a really solid foundation for the majority of our Season long NFL bets. Good times ahead.

I feel a bit bad about the Stenson situation, eggs in one basket & all that. If he plays bad & we get the lot it looks a terrific spot. The chances of him absolutely spreadeagling the field must have been remote with or without fitness rumours. But he did. Luckily, Adzy (I think) repaired some of the golf damage via the excellent Spieth.

All things considered, we did well over the weekend to limit the damage, with horsey's Saturday result, & the Spieth bet yesterday keeping us afloat.

More bets mean more work, but we have to get sample size to negate variance.   

A profit for the month of over £600 at this stage is still very acceptable, as we head for what will be, we hope, our 5th straight monthly profit.   

[Doobs]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/aston-villa-v-tottenham/winner

spurs played Thursday, Sunday and now Tuesday in a competition that is way down the list of priorities for them.  Villa, have the cups and that is it.

villa at home, 5/2with most seems like a reasonable bet?

5/2, at home, & Spurs (away) have to play their third game in 6 days in a "not very interesting" Cup?

I'm not a football expert, but to me, that looks a must bet.

I'll need some advice from the grown-ups, but I've had a little bet for myself on the strength of your suggestion.

Views anyone?

The bookies have the same info as we do, perhaps I'm missing something here?

This looks a bet to me.  You can get 13/5 with BetFred which is a bit better.

[tikay]

Young Paulinho seems to look rather more excited than one would normally imagine.

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/aston-villa-v-tottenham/winner

spurs played Thursday, Sunday and now Tuesday in a competition that is way down the list of priorities for them.  Villa, have the cups and that is it.

villa at home, 5/2with most seems like a reasonable bet?

5/2, at home, & Spurs (away) have to play their third game in 6 days in a "not very interesting" Cup?

I'm not a football expert, but to me, that looks a must bet.

I'll need some advice from the grown-ups, but I've had a little bet for myself on the strength of your suggestion.

Views anyone?

The bookies have the same info as we do, perhaps I'm missing something here?

Meh.

Thursday was barely a training exercise and Spurs now has a big squad. Much deeper than Villa's, who - if they are going to win on Tuesday - will need to start most of the side that played on Saturday.

Real value might depend on the fitness of Benteke and Defoe.

I'd really be surprised if our players were exhausted tomorrow night, having spent most of yesterday making ten yard passes to each other.

As we all know, I'm no assessor of prices, but I would think the price to progress on the night might offer more interest than the price to win in 90.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/aston-villa-v-tottenham/winner

spurs played Thursday, Sunday and now Tuesday in a competition that is way down the list of priorities for them.  Villa, have the cups and that is it.

villa at home, 5/2with most seems like a reasonable bet?

5/2, at home, & Spurs (away) have to play their third game in 6 days in a "not very interesting" Cup?

I'm not a football expert, but to me, that looks a must bet.

I'll need some advice from the grown-ups, but I've had a little bet for myself on the strength of your suggestion.

Views anyone?

The bookies have the same info as we do, perhaps I'm missing something here?

This looks a bet to me.  You can get 13/5 with BetFred which is a bit better.

Good.

One is on one's way.