Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

ITM rugby, starts at 8.35am, Northland +3.

 Obviously I know nothing about this, just acting on information received as they say in the Met.

Ooh, missed it by a minute, & the lines have all moved now.

Thanks Neil, & good luck all those who got on.

[tikay]

Pretty certain Paddy have got another one wrong in the NFL.  They have 5/6 each of 2 whether the first quarter will have an odd or even number of points.  First and third quarters in the NFL are lower scoring because one team always starts backed up from the opening kickoff.  The correct total for the 1q is almost certainly the one Pinnacle which is 7.5 under a shade under 8/11.  If it goes under we almost certainly win.  The only score that beats us is  0-0 and 3-3 and it is the least likely of the five scores below 7.5 ie 7-0 and 3-0 either way.  If it goes over we are probably beat but there are score we win with.  21-0, 10-7, 17-0, 7-6, 6-3 either way are all feasible but obviously 14-0, 7-7 and 7-3 are more likely but even so I would say we are probably about 4/6 overall for it to be an odd score in the first quarter.

Genius!

Jeez, you boys don't half find some angles.

Inevitably, PP MAXED me @ £12.83, but  I took it anyway, why not?

Steelers @ Vikings, tonight, First Quarter score ODD, £12.83 @ 5/6.

ON

NFL Matches Pittsburgh Steelers At Minnesota Vikings
29-09-2013 18:00
1st Quarter Total Points Odd/Even
Odd @ 5/6


Your Bets





Win
Single: Odd @ 5/6
1 line at £12.83 per line
Total stake for this bet: £12.83
 Potential returns: £23.52
No: O/23146337/0000356
 

[tikay]

For admin purposes, I need to confirm a few bets we placed yesterday. It's for Tighty only, really, & for the Supervisor of all Spreadsheet matters, MereSpready.

Will do them shortly.

[TightEnd]

Pretty certain Paddy have got another one wrong in the NFL.  They have 5/6 each of 2 whether the first quarter will have an odd or even number of points.  First and third quarters in the NFL are lower scoring because one team always starts backed up from the opening kickoff.  The correct total for the 1q is almost certainly the one Pinnacle which is 7.5 under a shade under 8/11.  If it goes under we almost certainly win.  The only score that beats us is  0-0 and 3-3 and it is the least likely of the five scores below 7.5 ie 7-0 and 3-0 either way.  If it goes over we are probably beat but there are score we win with.  21-0, 10-7, 17-0, 7-6, 6-3 either way are all feasible but obviously 14-0, 7-7 and 7-3 are more likely but even so I would say we are probably about 4/6 overall for it to be an odd score in the first quarter.

Genius!

Jeez, you boys don't half find some angles.

Inevitably, PP MAXED me @ £12.83, but  I took it anyway, why not?

Steelers @ Vikings, tonight, First Quarter score ODD, £12.83 @ 5/6.

ON

NFL Matches Pittsburgh Steelers At Minnesota Vikings
29-09-2013 18:00
1st Quarter Total Points Odd/Even
Odd @ 5/6


Your Bets





Win
Single: Odd @ 5/6
1 line at £12.83 per line
Total stake for this bet: £12.83
 Potential returns: £23.52
No: O/23146337/0000356
 

is this the right game? the Wembley game is Sunday. was redarmi referring to tonight's game?

[tikay]

Pretty certain Paddy have got another one wrong in the NFL.  They have 5/6 each of 2 whether the first quarter will have an odd or even number of points.  First and third quarters in the NFL are lower scoring because one team always starts backed up from the opening kickoff.  The correct total for the 1q is almost certainly the one Pinnacle which is 7.5 under a shade under 8/11.  If it goes under we almost certainly win.  The only score that beats us is  0-0 and 3-3 and it is the least likely of the five scores below 7.5 ie 7-0 and 3-0 either way.  If it goes over we are probably beat but there are score we win with.  21-0, 10-7, 17-0, 7-6, 6-3 either way are all feasible but obviously 14-0, 7-7 and 7-3 are more likely but even so I would say we are probably about 4/6 overall for it to be an odd score in the first quarter.

Genius!

Jeez, you boys don't half find some angles.

Inevitably, PP MAXED me @ £12.83, but  I took it anyway, why not?

Steelers @ Vikings, tonight, First Quarter score ODD, £12.83 @ 5/6.

ON

NFL Matches Pittsburgh Steelers At Minnesota Vikings
29-09-2013 18:00
1st Quarter Total Points Odd/Even
Odd @ 5/6


Your Bets





Win
Single: Odd @ 5/6
1 line at £12.83 per line
Total stake for this bet: £12.83
 Potential returns: £23.52
No: O/23146337/0000356
 

is this the right game? the Wembley game is Sunday. was redarmi referring to tonight's game?

Bugger.

No, wrong game, ugh, sorry. But surely the logic is equally relevant?

I'll see if I can find the correct game now. I'm dangerous.

[sharky_uk]

Julien Quesne can be backed on Betfair at 170 for the Dunhill Links golf. That appears to be a ridiculous price for a player who won last week's Italian Open and came 7th the previous week in the KLM Open.

[Bad Beat]

The total is the same in both games Tikay so we should bet it in both.

[tikay]

The total is the same in both games Tikay so we should bet it in both.

It worked out better for tonight - PP allowed me £50.71!

So....

I took £50 @ 5/6, Paddy Power, 49ers @ Rams, First Quarter Points ODD. (Down to redarmi)

ON


NFL Matches San Francisco 49ers At St. Louis Rams
27-09-2013 01:25
1st Quarter Total Points Odd/Even
Odd @ 5/6


Your Bets





Win
Single: Odd @ 5/6
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
 Potential returns: £91.67
No: O/23146337/0000357
 

[Tal]

Tal's idiot question of the day

Isn't 6-0 also possible, under 7.5 and not odd? Not doubting the maths or the reasoning, but if someone didn't say it, you can be sure as eggs are eggs that this would be the scoreline after 15 mins.

[tikay]

Julien Quesne can be backed on Betfair at 170 for the Dunhill Links golf. That appears to be a ridiculous price for a player who won last week's Italian Open and came 7th the previous week in the KLM Open.

That does seem crazy, & beats the books by a considerable margin. Bit of a dart, but worth £10, surely? Current Betty price is now 130.

[tikay]

Tal's idiot question of the day

Isn't 6-0 also possible, under 7.5 and not odd? Not doubting the maths or the reasoning, but if someone didn't say it, you can be sure as eggs are eggs that this would be the scoreline after 15 mins.

Yes, but quite unlikely, I would suggest.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £497.14

Outstanding Bets £2832.20

Free bets ONE William Hill use by 2nd Oct

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=26


A profit of £43 yesterday

* Mannarino beat Almagro in the tennis at 9/5 for a £36 profit

* At Goodwood 2 winners, a second and two losers for a total profit of just under £50

In the loser column, WBA's failure to beat Arsenal for -£18 which completed a nap hand of incorrect League cup results this week. The one we didn't do, but debated a lot? Birmingham beat Swansea 3-0.

In addition the Kansas City Royals were knocked out of the playoff picture with a loss last night so the oldest position on the book was marked down as a £20 loss

There is likely to be a £100 loss coming on Middlesex too, as its odds on we'll get done on this last game of the season

Warwickshire 391-9d Derbyshire 44-5. Ouch. Look to the skies over Derby and hope, I reckon

Durham 164 Sussex 328 Durham 2-0 Semi-ouch. Similar protestations to the rain gods at Hove,


The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Yankees 8-3 last night, six wins in a row. With the Indians and Rangers also winning, its 2 from 3 for the play-offs

Tampa Bay Rays    89    69    .563    -1    
Cleveland Indians    88    70    .557    --
----------------------
Texas Rangers    87    71    .551    1

I'll spare us what hapens if there is a tie in 4 games time, for now







 

[Doobs]

Julien Quesne can be backed on Betfair at 170 for the Dunhill Links golf. That appears to be a ridiculous price for a player who won last week's Italian Open and came 7th the previous week in the KLM Open.

That does seem crazy, & beats the books by a considerable margin. Bit of a dart, but worth £10, surely? Current Betty price is now 130.

Definitely go 125/1 each way with coral rather than 130/1 on Betfair if you do this.

You get 5 places quarter odds.

[Tal]

Tal's idiot question of the day

Isn't 6-0 also possible, under 7.5 and not odd? Not doubting the maths or the reasoning, but if someone didn't say it, you can be sure as eggs are eggs that this would be the scoreline after 15 mins.

Yes, but quite unlikely, I would suggest.

Oh undoubtedly. It's a terrific spot, red. Another reason to love this thread: incredible finds like that.

Must confess to a vision of a 4-2 scoreline now, which must be about 100,000-1. If that happens, Fred has run badly.

[sharky_uk]

Julien Quesne can be backed on Betfair at 170 for the Dunhill Links golf. That appears to be a ridiculous price for a player who won last week's Italian Open and came 7th the previous week in the KLM Open.

That does seem crazy, & beats the books by a considerable margin. Bit of a dart, but worth £10, surely? Current Betty price is now 130.

160 available now. I would be tempted to take a bit more with a view to laying some back when shorter. He tees off a 10:06