Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

oh if all bets placed too win free bets along with the free bets themself are on a seperate thread then thats fine with me
but i would hate too see a free bet won on here and then punted on another thread

btw i think we just got a free bet in the 3.15

[Doobs]

oh if all bets placed too win free bets along with the free bets themself are on a seperate thread then thats fine with me
but i would hate too see a free bet won on here and then punted on another thread

btw i think we just got a free bet in the 3.15

Haha, don't think thread did any today.  SO think we got a free bet, but thread didn't.

[tikay]

oh if all bets placed too win free bets along with the free bets themself are on a seperate thread then thats fine with me
but i would hate too see a free bet won on here and then punted on another thread

btw i think we just got a free bet in the 3.15

We did not have a bet in the 3.15, and nobody recommended that we should.

The spreadsheet is up to date.

[Omm]

Free Bet Debate

I just want to keep this all together, whilst it is up for debate.

So far, there have been 4 views expressed, as follows....

FOR

Simon Galloway

Tighty

Ed Bon Viveur Gascoigne.

Ironside

AGAINST

Camel

Novelty Bet Specialist Chompy

Adzy

UPDATED

Think they should stay, my understanding is that Doobs provided the maths as to why they were +ev which makes the free bet part of doing the original bet. Which in term makes any return on the free bet part of the +ev.

That being said there is possibly a case for the thread to stop doing the bets in the first place or go the whole hog and do everyone that "qualifies", my understanding of this is there is certain criteria, when I do them the criteria is

1) 8 runners or less
2) Fav or 1st two in the betting are quite fancied
3) the next are generally a few points away in price
4) a few long shots that have very little chance
5) price is close to betfair

The reasoning of doing all bets that qualify is the same as Tikay gave for doing Neil's tip on BE, we could be losing value in the long run by not doing all the races, if this was to happen it would probably require its own thread merely due to the increased workload.

Finally all of this is only possible because the offer is there, Ladbrokes have already banned Fred from doing it, how long before WH do and if they don't is that because we are losing!

Hope I haven't muddied the waters.

[BigAdz]

Afternoon all.

Had one in my tracker that I thought was being lined up for a punt in Ireland.

"Ask Dad" was with the Maestro JP Murtagh and had been a bit unlucky without being pushed too hard, shall we say.

I was rather shocked to see today he is running for Michael Dods in a 1m race at Haydock, still in the ownership of Andrew Tinkler.

There has been a small amount of money for it so far. I wonder if this is an angle of some sort. hmmmmm

Not a recommend but interesting methinks

Oh dear. I think he has been shipped over to have a race closer to the knackers yard!

[Doobs]

Im not sure it is equally relevant to any game.  You need a relatively low first quarter total for it to be value.  Pretty sure it wouldn't be value in the Eagles/Broncos game at the weekend for example but it is fine to leave it for the London game as that has same total as tonights game.

Stuart.

I really don't think this works.

I have loaded week 1 to 3 results for this year and last into a spreadsheet.  I used weeks 1 to 3 as there are 16 games in each week that meant I could repeat formulae when cutting and pasting.

In that sample (96 games), there are more even number results in the first quarter (55 to 41).  Whilst there isn't a lot of difference between the average final score if the match starts with an even first quarter or an odd one, but my sample gave a higher average final score in those matches that started with an odd total in the first quarter.

Whilst this sample isn't big enough to suggest we should switch in to backing evens at 5/6, I think it is enough to suggest backing odds in the first quarter at 5/6 is an error. 

Obviously we should stick with the ones already placed, I just don't think we should rush to put any more on unless somebody can show it works on a really big sample.

FWIW 0-0 seemed more common than I'd naturally expect and there are a whole bunch of 7-7s out there.

I am not sure it isn't 50-50 (or close) for games as an overall population though.  You would definitely have to have games where the first quarter total had a favourite under 7.5.  For quite a few games there would be a favourite over that number and the point of the bet, from my perspective would be to aim it at those games.  Also I am pretty sure you would need a bigger sample to be sure.  That said I am not totally sure but I ran it past a guy that used to work for Las Vegas Sport Consultants and he suggested that odd was an even bigger favourite than I thought.  Out of interest what is the distribution of the scores below 7.5?

I have just done this manually and my youngest has just woken up, so it was a bit of a rush.

of the 96 games, only 36 were under 7.5,  22 were odds and 14 were even.

For your bet to bet to be good, I think you need to be able to predict the first quarter is going to be under 7.5 with close to 100% accuracy.  Ofc the first week 4 result improves these stats by one in your favour.  Again sample sizes are small, but big enough for me to have doubts about this.

Though I did back the one last night before doing this maths, I don't think there can be any edge in this.  I won't be backing any more.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

Tonight sees the 2nd semifinal of superleague, Wigan hosting Leeds. I am tempted to go for the unders but I feel that the fewer points there are the more likely that Leeds will win and we get a bigger price backing Leeds. I think Leeds have won 15 out of their last 16 end of season knock out matches. They beat Wigan comfortably 3 weeks ago and Wigan do not have O'Laughlin playing and often seem very ordinary without him. I would expect even Kinboshi would say that 7/4 is a big price for Leeds tonight.

Suggest £20 Leeds to beat Wigan @7/4 with Ladbrokes or Coral.

[Ironside]

Sorry I cant access the spreadsheet on my phone I thought doobs had recommend it so I followed with both bets

[tikay]

Sorry I cant access the spreadsheet on my phone I thought doobs had recommend it so I followed with both bets

Doobs mentioned Rizeena which subsequently finished 2nd in the 3.15 as a potential yardstick by which to assess Vorda, who runs tomorrow.

[TightEnd]

reminder please

Man U to win to nil tomorrow

Spreadsheet still lacks a bookie and an amount bet, neither of which I think are on the thread

thanks

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

Tonight sees the 2nd semifinal of superleague, Wigan hosting Leeds. I am tempted to go for the unders but I feel that the fewer points there are the more likely that Leeds will win and we get a bigger price backing Leeds. I think Leeds have won 15 out of their last 16 end of season knock out matches. They beat Wigan comfortably 3 weeks ago and Wigan do not have O'Laughlin playing and often seem very ordinary without him. I would expect even Kinboshi would say that 7/4 is a big price for Leeds tonight.

Suggest £20 Leeds to beat Wigan @7/4 with Ladbrokes or Coral.

Thanks hector, we are safely on.

Hope you have a lovely, relaxing weekend.

£20 @ 7/4, Ladbrokes, Wigen to beat Leeds, tonight.

ON


Leeds Rhinos
Wigan Warriors v Leeds Rhinos

 Singles - Match Betting

1 line @ £20.0 per line
.
Total Stake £20.00

Potential Return £55.00

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000454

[Tal]

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!

[tikay]

reminder please

Man U to win to nil tomorrow

Spreadsheet still lacks a bookie and an amount bet, neither of which I think are on the thread

thanks

Ahh, sorry Rich, thought I'd stuck it on after you reminded me, sorry.

Will go & have a quick rummage downstairs.

[tikay]

Are there any thoughts on Manchester to "win to nil" at home to West Brom on Saturday at 11/8 with Corals? 5/4 with Victor, but then 11/10 and smaller everywhere else.

Not a recc, but it looks a good bet, love to hear any thoughts on this

Looks both out of line and value. West Brom have lost to nil in 7/8 of their last trips to the big four.

WBA playing extra time now too, can't help them at the weekend. Coral's 27/20 standout by miles still...

Done, details in the morning.

ON

Looks like I sort of half did it, sorry.

£20 @ 27/20, Corals, Man Utd to win to nil v WBA.

ON

25/09/2013 22:22PM

Single
To Win

£ 20.00

Man Utd - Man Utd v West Brom - To Win to Nil @ 27/20


£ 0.00

[McGlashan]

One bookmaker that is has priced up LMA manager of the year, an award voted for by fellow managers and there looks to be a large discrepancy on the book. Yes Fred cannot bet with them, neither can I but hopefully someone finds this of use.

The big 4 managers look priced up for the ice-cream money:
6/4 Pellegrini
5/2 Moyes
4-1 Mourinho
8-1 Wenger
You can get equal or longer odds on any of them clubs to win the title. All 4 managers minimum requirement to win the award must surely be to win the title.
Note:
5/20 awards have gone to that year's title winner.
18/20 winning managers have been from England or Scotland (ok inc once to Joe Kinnear). Wenger has won it twice.
17/20 winners were from the top tier.
That leaves us with 12/20 winners from an underdog EPL side.

The title winners part looks explainable in that they not only have to win it but do it in style.
There's 2 ways we can explain the lack of foreign winners:
1: all 4 divisions vote for the winner, the lower leagues have a higher percentage of home nation managers who are more likely to vote for a home nations winner.
2: There's a bias toward managers who have built up good will over a number of years. That theory is in a similar manner to how Jeff Bridges won an Oscar not for his greatest performance but for a good performance when it was acceptable for him to be given the award after years of building up recognition.


There are 10 British managed underdogs we could make a case for, from Brendan Rodgers at 16-1 up to 66-1 on Chris Houghton.

One name that stands out a mile is Steve Bruce at 50-1. He's generally well liked, has been around long enough, his team are off to an encouraging start and crazily he's the second longest price available.